Moderate Yourself: Shields Up

Okay, I’ve had time to absorb the information and sequester my emotions from what we are looking at here.

The last time The PPT flagged Oversold was 12/8/11 when the SPY was at $122. We are significantly above that level, despite the carnage, regardless of how poorly AAPL has been trading. As of the close of trade today, we are not oversold. Normally, I do not give away that information for free, since it is a membership service. However, we are living in interesting times and wanted to give you a full view of what the market can be setting up to do.

Starting with tomorrow’s sell off, I am giving the market 7-10 days for a full rebound. Unlike past euro events, this one will not drag on forever. I believe swift action will be taken. You are not the only one with something to lose here. Think about the bankster exposure to sovereign debt.

Thus far, contagion is not a topic, as Italian and Spanish yields are muted. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen tomorrow.

You should not be leveraged long like me. I tend to make bold moves at odd times, often a little too early or late for my own good. When it’s all said and done, I’ll get it done, but not without expense. If I had a life expectancy (Le Fly is immortal), I’d be dead by now, resting in a pineapple coffin, from all of the HORSESHIT I put myself through. The market is a living organism, subject to the elements of man, contaminated by his stupidity. If you are bulking up on basic materials or high beta earnings plays, you are gambling and would be better off fighting sharks with chum wrapped around your fucking face.

Nothing is working but big dividend, big market cap, grandpa stocks. If you look at my 110% long position, you will find it to be deceptively conservative, with 50% of it yielding almost 3%, up 1% over the past 2 weeks. In other words, the grandpa stocks are a form of cash for me, until my risk appetite increases.

As of now, I am heavy on talking shit; but my actions are far more subdued. Don’t GMCR yourself out of the game and remember to live to fight another day. Once you are out, you’re fucking out. I can’t tell you how many times I missed out on huge gains because I didn’t manage my risk profile properly. When the market is back into beat-down-a-bear-to-the-skelton mode, you will know it– and have plenty of time to get in.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQt0BQQ5jyQ

Once again, all of you fuckers who were calling for a market crash this morning were wrong. You’re like a living fable, specific to the boy who cried wolf. The market fell 75 points and no one gives a shit about Greece anymore.

Here is what is going to happen:

The fucktards who just got elected will find religion and tow the line. If not, they will be kicked out of the EU and Spain and Italy will enjoy strong ring fencing to support their borrowing costs via the ECB. If you insist on betting on disaster, I will adamantly bet against you. It’s true, the market has been tough; but let’s not listen to men dressed like cows, declaring all is lost.  There is nothing extraordinary about the market action. As a point in fact, it is behaving as it should, more than ever.

Companies with bad earnings are being deflated, while winners keep wining. Old man stocks are regarded as safe havens and small cappers are volatile.

Gold and silver are horrible and TLT is on the cusp of $120 again. It is clear to me, the threat to the system is not Zimbabwe style inflation, but the specter of the economy falling into a deflationary vortex. Because of that, you can bank on the Fed providing a bid for this market. Now if you are in the camp who believes such a bid will only present itself AFTER a calamitous market decline, maybe down to 10,000 Dow, I believe you do not know the Bearded Clam very well.

He’s gonna get you bitches, starting with tomorrows trade.

NOTE: I am 110% long.

I added to both positions.

As you know, there are two sides to “The Fly”, as presently represented by his portfolio. On one side is the social networking ‘risk demon’, who feeds off the scalps of bears and enjoys to kick elderly men down subways staircases. On the other hand, 50% of his portfolio is wrapped up in “Grandpa stocks,” the sort of portfolio that makes you doze off in front of the television while watching The Price is Right.

Today’s market calamity is a Tale of Two portfolios for me. There is AAPL, YELP, WNR, CPST, ANR, VCLK and NXPI in one corner, getting their fucking dicks chopped off. And then there is GIS, KMB, LNCE, WM, PEP–totally not giving a shit about Greek communism or euro collapse.

It was outlined earlier this month, based upon the tips given from urinal shadows and seasonality trends provided by the engine that could, inside of The PPT: grandpa stocks tend to outperform in the month of May.

It is in my nature to take on risk. That’s what I do, for good and for worse. However, I am eternally grateful that I decided against my worser judgement and put half of my assets in those stocks. While I am still losing money, it could be much worse.

Where do we go from here?

I believe you start nibbling today. Spanish and Italian yields are going down, not up, leading me to believe the market is accepting the prospect that Greece will leave the euro. Once they do that, both Italy and Spain will be protected by a euorbond, leaving Greece to fuck themselves and create more ruins, sending the markets to new highs.

That’s my 2 cents.

NOTE: I sold out of P

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPhroQLzI1o

The gent in Greece, the guy who was just elected and in charge of forming a government, is talking shit about the terms of the bailout and how he is more interested in paying for the vacations of Greek union workers, fucking Germans in the process, than adhering to austere living standards. However, it should be duly noted, the Greeks have elected several neo-nazis, in solidarity with their non-vacationing German counterparts.

The Original Buttfuckers are a ruinous bunch. They should have never been permitted to enter the league of civilized nations and would be better off under the auxiliary command of Turkey. Having said that, the problem in Europe isn’t going away, no matter how much I wish it would. On the eyes of Italians, nothing can redress my dark feelings towards every single European living in the countries that represent letters in the PIGS acronym.

Clearly, peace hasn’t worked; give war a chance.

If these bumbling morons would attack one another, like in the “good old days,” I am sure we wouldn’t have to worry about German austerity versus French spending.

As an investor, the process of having to endure the European Union is absurd. It rattles me to my core. It keeps me up at night, plotting against whole continents, configuring space orbital cannons to vaporize entire towns within minutes.

ATTENTION BEARS: I’ve not lost faith in America’s ability to teach the Europeans what they need to learn. We have endless resources of black op teams, who can murder these uncooperative forces inside of these barbaric countries, whenever needed. As an American, I take pride in the fact that when we don’t like other governments, we topple them. Our good friends, “The Banksters,” do not like their stock prices going lower and neither do I.

Cheers.

I would have bargained for more, if the decision was up to me. Nevertheless, I will take what I can get. And my take for the day was almost 1% to the upside, thanks to heavy exposure to old school mega caps, like KMB, GIS and PEP.

During the afternoon, even my WNR reversed and charged higher. I was partially chagrined by the semis, especially my position in NXPI. After all, they smashed numbers and life is good for the friendly folks at NXPI, always invited to the finest and most elegant affairs hosted by KKR.

After the bell, crickets could be heard around the office, as the sentiment shifted from “wow, we just dodged a fucking errant cannon ball” to “I want more tomorrow.”

Well, be patient dear friends, for we all shall have more tomorrow, except for the bears of course. We will suckle and take company with great whores and suckle some more. Fistfuls of cocaine tossed carelessly into rapidly spinning fans (the metal kind). The markets will massage our temples and violently skin the shorts for their barbarism.

Things will get better: just wait and see.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOzesduLyrI

I like to think of myself as a fan of the stock market. Aside from managing money, I enjoy reading, listening and watching people talk about strategies, stocks and macro ideas. Over the years, the Yahoo message boards has been a place where imperious street cleaners pumped and dumped their shares on unsuspecting garbage lovers. Phrases like “TIMBERRRRR” are very popular there and all of the cretins on those boards seem to enjoy a particularly low brand of humour.

In the modern era, I consider StockTwits and Twitter to be the dominate message boards for the markets, places where investors get together and talk shit about stocks. To StockTwits credit, they curate their feed, eliminating scammers and bottom feeders from defiling their stream.

But the over-arching theme every where I look, every where I listen and read, is pessimism. The Hugh Hendrys, Great Roubinis, Meredith Whitneys are very popular indeed. And it’s not because they are very smart, which they all are. To that point, people like to hear them speak because they are bearshitters. There is a reason why Zerohedge is so popular, aside from his incredible work ethic and pristine content. Tyler is loved because he wants the world to end– and he wants that shit to happen immediately.

iBankCoin is the last bastion, the safe-haven of safe-havens, where the speech is free and the bulls roam with their balls swinging in the wind. Aside from the occasional Bleier/Caine assault on good hard working oil and gas personnel, iBC remains defiant in the face of overwhelming bearshitterness.

I just pulled up the StockTwits app and purveyed the “Trending” stocks stream and guess what I saw?

Answer: You fuckers are talking shit again. How can the markets crash when everyone is expecting it?

This new generation of investors have been tainted by the collapse of 2008. These young players really, really suck dick– because they all want to call the next crash. Everyone wants notoriety, calling out companies and combing over books, as if these C student gym rats were PWC audit partners.

Please. Relax, it’s only an Al Qaeda bomb. Clearly, you are in over your head. Stop embarrassing yourself, for the sake of your future children who will learn about your indigent legacy.

Starting out I dealt with the crashes of 1997, 1998, 2000-2002 and I still managed to get 200% long into the 2003 rally. You’re never going to make BIG money betting against stocks. That is a fact. There will be pockets of weakness, in between rip your face off rallies. To believe that “this time is different” is always a suckers bet. By betting against progress and prosperity, via clamoring for stock market disaster, that’s exactly what you are doing.

I will bet against that bubble every single time.

France was down 2% when I went to sleep last night and S&P futures were dramatically lower, -180. The bearshitters were elated on Twitter last night, rejoicing in the bad news, lathering themselves with the pain of others, declaring victory. I fucking warned them all, last night, that I was going to kill them all. I told them “PREPARE TO BE SHOT FROM CARNIVAL CANNONS” should the market trade up today. Lo and behold, France is up and futures are down 30.

By no means am I boasting. From my vantage point, Senor Tropicana has a lot of work to do, none of which requires chest pounding or early celebrations.

IT’S NOT A GAME ANYMORE.

I said it yesterday and I will say it now: the European move AWAY from austerity is good. The fucking Tea Parties of the world can fuck themselves. Trying to be austere when the economy is collapsing is fucking juvenile. The arch-fiends in Germany need to stop worrying about inflation and understand deflation is the real risk. Once the Europeans embrace their printing presses, world markets will fucking soar.

Spain is up 1.3% and I’m going to slap someone in the face with a hot slice of pizza today. The world is as it should be.

Top picks: KMB, YELP, PEP

THIS IS WHAT I WANT YOU TO DO, IF YOU HAVEN’T DONE SO ALREADY: Sign up to iBankCoin or start a blog here. Contribute! Also, you can link up your twitter handle and we will list you on sidebar. Very soon the GAMIFICATION of iBankCoin will begin and you will want to be a part of it.

Fine, I will broach the subject of bastard French and Greek election results. This should come as no surprise, as the world knew who was going to win. Nevertheless, in true fucktarded stock market form, we’re all drama Queens tonight, machinating about the ongoings in Athens and how it pertains to the Euro.

“The Euro is going to fucking collapse under the weight of heavy Greek lounge chairs, vacationing in Skopelos.”

So both France and Greece are moving away from austerity. Explain to me how that is worse for stocks, aside from the fact that German brinksmanship stands in the way?

Stock are knifing lower now because of uncertainty. This is the fucking story that just won’t die. It’s like the boogieman, God damn it, Michael Myers in all of his pomp and grandeur. Shares of Apple are down 16 of 18 days, or something like that. For what? Law of large numbers, plush with $112 billion in cash? I can’t think of a safer haven.

Nevertheless, the men wrapped in burlap will have a lovely sleep tonight, dreaming of nightmarish scenarios, all surrounding around the idea of large capital losses, margin calls and outright death and mayhem. These people are sick and deranged, well deserving of electric shock treatment. Don’t bother poking sticks at me, in an effort to agitate. I am already as mad as can be, heavily long, albeit grandpa stocks, into the teeth of yet another hazard.

Time and effort is what I stand to lose, time and effort. It took a lot of time and effort to get to where I am today. And, it will take even more time to regain all of the fucking money I stand to lose tomorrow. One way or another, I will come out on top, as I have always managed to do. But this shit is testing the outer limits of my controlled insanity to the point of no return.

Having said all of that, I am sure Ben Bernanke is watching the action, whilst smoking his blunts filled with marijuana, declaring “watch, son, I’m gonna get those bitches real good this time.”

Nothing has changed, just the curtains on the living room window.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEDBRX1L5cI&list=FLEIciWvVLqrS9jdkxpjKL9A&index=4&feature=plpp_video

A lot of people I know have been minting coing long VHC. I used to own the stock at around $14, but sold it because I am a fucking moron. Nevertheless, there is a very interesting story to be told in the name. Long term contributor and friend of mine, Chuck Bennett, alongside the ever elusive “Devil”, have been heavy buyers of the stock and options for months. This is what I can tell you, relating to the story and why they feel it is going to $70.

VirnetX is a patent troll company, armed with some of the best attorneys money can buy. They are claiming ownership of the Secure Domain Names/Registry, in other words: every time you make a purchase via iTunes, VHC expects to get a cut. Their patents were recently validated by a Federal Judge, who ruled against Microsoft, awarding VHC $200 million. They have open lawsuits with a number of companies, including AAPL, pursuing the framework of royalty whoring established by QCOM many years ago.

One of their open cases against CSCO, AAPL, NEC and Aastra pertain to the core products of each company (think iTunes) and amount to $160 billion in sales, ANNUALLY. In layman’s terms, every time someone accesses iTunes via their iPhone or iPad, it violates VHC’s patents. Pretty sick, huh?

Regarding valuation: The company has $60 mill in cash, no debt, with a small burn. Bulls who know the story say the settlements to come may amount to over $8 billion. The bears who are being flamed in the stock point to other patent trolls, like CEVA and TSRA, who shot higher early, only to come crashing down later. Whether this is the next QCOM is anyone’s guess. It’s too hard to predict how a judge might rule. Nevertheless, the stock has been working and is clearly being recognized by investors as a story to watch.

Related: Inventors declaration.
vhc

Pardon the brevity of this post. There are people who know the story much better than I do and are welcomed to leave bullet points in the comments section.

Also Related: fuck, fuck, fuck! (note left by yours truly in The PPT many moons ago. There are 26 pages of notes in there.)