BEHOLD: Another Black Swan Event

All hope is lost.

JPM just sucked the life out of the market. There is no need to offer flowery writing this morning, no metaphors or analogies. You will have to accept the bad news and move on with your lives. For some of you that means eating sandwiches and hoping this will pass soon. For others, today’s tape is a fine opportunity to go for a spin in the FAZmobile.

I cannot fathom a scenario where banks can do well in the short term. Until we get more clarity on this JPM story, avoid the banks like you would avoid pig fat sushi.

It looks like a -1% day and that’s too bad because European yields are somewhat stable. There was every reason to believe the market was setting up for a reflex rally, after weeks of somber, cocksucking, bullshit. But now it’s all over and death itself is knocking on the front door.

Are you going to open it?

Naturally, I anticipate heinous losses in my accounts today, with exception to WNR. Crack spreads are almost $30 and the refineries are being accumulated by giant hedge funds, whose goal in life is to be greedy and kill people for profit.

Regrettably, Mrs. Fly has plans for me today, which entails accompanying her to some event that borders on the ridiculous and lives in the nonsensical. Nevertheless, I am a generous man, with both time and money. Therefore, it is my duty to shed my owlish wisdom into her life, with the hopes that one day my generosity can save lives or inspire others to build space cannons, designed and purposed for egregious offensive measures.

In short, watch Spanish and Italian yields. It’s my hunch JPM’s fate is tethered to the “credit worthiness” of the club med states. Therefore, and this goes without saying, and I say this with the boldest of stentorian tones: they’re pretty much fucked for another $10 billion plus.

In 6 weeks they lost $2 billion. They will continue to lose money and “this can last for a while.” They concocted synthetic credit instruments and it blew up in their face. From what I understand, this might be isolated to the company. There is no reason to believe this is systemic and the market should not tank on THIS news. However, it can tank for other reasons, such as Greece, Spain, Italy etc.

Futures are down 13 on this news.

Here is a link to the emergency conference call.

or, read WSJ live blogging summary of the call.

UPDATE: Apparently, this position was profitable at one point but got too big and was poorly monitored, reviewed and constructed. It was designed to hedge the company against credit.

UPDATE II: Here is live link to Bloomberg tv coverage of the situation.

UPDATE III: ZH has the background to this story, with some other dire predictions, such as $20 billion in losses.”

UPDATE IV: Was the JPM News leaked? 13,800 JPM 41 puts traded today, an outrageous amount indeed.

You can’t win in this tape, unless you are long PEP and other “wheeled chair” stocks. I don’t really feel bad about selling my old man stocks because EXK, AG and WNR did good today, all in all. But, everything else is a fucking circle jerk.

Go ahead and short Europe, Spain slices your body in half, up 4% for the day. Would you prefer the haven of safety that is The United Steaks of America? Sure, buy some.

YOU GET YOUR DICKS CHOPPED OFF.

Would you prefer to bet against stocks, through the explicit and gluttonous purchases of TZA,TVIX or VXX–LMAOMGROFLCOPTER??!!!

YOU GET YOUR DICKS CHOPPED OFF.

Hey, I got an idea. Why don’t you play the Facebook and buy some Yelp?

Do I need to say it?

I lost 0.65% today because that’s what I do, pal. I am a magician. I take the money and make that shit disappear. POOF!

Now I’ve been very patient with the market and have even started to consult my Voodoo Physician again, who, by the way, is telling me to make human sacrifices, as “it is the only way.” But I need a break here. I will not beg for stocks to go higher, because I am above that and really harbor deep seated resentment towards my occupation.

INSTEAD, I fucking demand stocks trade higher and immediately.

Starting with tonight’s sunset, “The Fly” is back in his 1980’s stretch limo, throwing jumping jacks at people on the outside. I won’t even look out of the windows when I do it too, so it’s russian roulette for you fucking pedestrians. Who knows, maybe I’ll get lucky and hit Jamie Dimon with a pack of lady fingers.

Okay, it all boils down to this: I am buying even more YELP on this dip. I added to the position today and have begun buying options too. I have a bowling ball with STOPPELMAN’S face on it. That nerdy fucker better smash earnings this quarter, else it’s off to the padded room for yours truly again, dressed in the finest sleeveless dinner jacket money can buy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdFvsleXjso

After giving up all the days gains, the market is being resilient, punching holes in the faces of bears again. Still, Spain was +3.9% today and we’re struggling to hold 0.5%.

Right now I have been reduced to “box watcher,” complainer of all things to do with stocks and bonds. I find myself wasting time, talking to people about “how stupid” this market is, only because it is not behaving in the manner of a top hatted gentleman. Truth be told, I’ve made a fantastic living managing money. It has afforded me with much needed currency and freedom to make my own schedule. Looking at my behavior objectively, I find myself to be sinful, ingratitude on a biblical scale.

There are people out there making 10 bucks an hour and I am complaining about the superfluities of my gagillionaire clients, whose unparalleled greed makes them pester me for more wins?

PFFFFFF.

That’s life, pal. Get over it.

YELP needs to trade the fuck higher and fast. The idea of this stock closing down on an up day is hateful to me. As you can tell, Le Fly is somewhat preoccupied with mental anguish. All roads lead to violence and that’s a bad thing, I think?!

Okay, I’ve wasting far too much time with you mustached weirdos today, pornography collectors, infants stuck in old/fat bodies.

Back to box watching.

Europe is holding onto gains and we are giving it all back. This is exactly what I didn’t want to happen. This sort of price action often leads to market routs. Truly, the US markets are the worst in the world right now, next to the dog lovers in Hong Kong and China. The pessimism is overwhelming.

AAPL is your tell and the fate of the market, at least in the near term, is tethered to the price action of today’s tape. It’s bad enough that we were unable to rally yesterday, despite green in Europe. To not participate in the rally is equal to saying WE are the problem and not Europe. It makes you think for a second.

WAIT A MINUTE! CSCO missed– and earnings have been murderholes for a wide array of momentum plays.

Maybe we are the problem?

Hmmm.

Let me be emphatic: WE MUST RALLY BY NO LESS THAN 150 points today.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFtBIRAdb-o&feature=relmfu

I’ve been a dealer in the magical arts since I was young. To accomplish my goals, I will my way to success. You fuckers are so bearish, shitting on Facebook as if it was GRPN, I know you are wrong. You fuckers are so pessimistic about the EU and this market, I know we have 2,000 points to the upside.

Even though Obama is the devil himself, he will likely be reelected because by the time the election is near, this market is going to be north of 15-fucking-thousand–leaving skid marks on 75% of you ham and eggers on Twitter. Stock markets elect people, not citizens.

Generally speaking, “The Fly” always wins, especially when the skies open up on him, striking his person with bolts of lightening.

Spain nationalized Bankia, reversing their promise of not assisting their failed institutions. I view this positively, as it means they are taking the UK approach to ring-fencing their fucked banks: making them disappear. I am not so sure about Greece; but Spain and Italy will be funded by the ECB, until Germany goes broke. By the time that happens, “The Fly” will be living in his space station, permanently, firing his Space Orbital Cannon (SOC) at your houses from the Van Allen belt.

We should bounce today, led by commodities. It’s do or die for real today. If we don’t take 1% back from the deviant fiends within the next 7 hours, it’s a bag of dicks for investors tomorrow.

I descend upon you with owlish wisdom. I’m the Ajax of this finance/blogging/space alien magician (SAM) game. Bet against me and lose your house.

Top Picks: EXK, AG, WNR, MTW, YELP

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UBGVZlexO8

A few years ago, I did a series of cartoons, like the one featured above, for fun.

The market will never rally again.

Today was the day when we had to rally. It was do or die and now we are going to die.  For the love of killer infectious diseases in Africa, EUROPE WAS UP TODAY and we managed our end of the bargain like homo-hammered Greeks.

This is extremely distressing. You have no idea.

Throughout the day I conducted myself with dignity, repositioning away from old goat fucker to young gun slinger. But that didn’t matter and neither does PCLN and CSCO.

We are positively doomed. There is no hope and there is no tomorrow.

Enjoy your funerals.

NOTE: I made 0.3% today.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RamFlOFdb6g&feature=related

Europe reversed hard off the lows, some indices closed green. The fact that we are not green yet is disappointing. But the ground is set, whether you like it or not, for a mind-blowing rally into the sleepy afternoon hours.

If the anti-bailout fuckers from Greece can’t form a government, logic dictates it’s business as usual, with German hands up the asses of those lazy mutton fuckers.

My cash position is 20%, thanks to sales. But I upped my risk profile through the purchases of WNR, EXK, AG and MTW.

Don’t hate on me, fucker. I’m just going for the jugular, trying to win big, as it is my right and custom to do so.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0_zC0nJnrc

I tossed Grandpa to the side, kicking his dumbass down a flight of subway stairs. I kicked out of 75% of my old man stocks to bulk-the-fuck-up on EXK, AG, WNR and MTW.

That’s right, I’m buying fucking cranes in China, via MTW.

The truth is, I have a death wish. I laugh at insolvency, while feverishly drinking excessive amounts of ambrosia, swallowing lamb shanks save the fucking mint jelly. See, I’m in this car made from dynamite sticks and it’s getting hot in the cabin. I’m gonna drive this bitch until the wheels fall off, throwing bowling balls at you pikers on Wall.

Go make some cold calls. “The Fly” will be in his time machine, changing the future to better comport with his position.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQuMjjKaKhY