Obvious Hurricane Plays

The recovery may cost upwards of $50 billion. Whether you care to acknowledge it or not, housing is in full recovery mode, with values soaring nationwide (Phoenix +20%, Miami +8% yoy). Now with Sandy, people from the tri-state will need to rebuild, drawing from an already constrained building materials markets.

Sheetrock and insulation will be in high demand, helping shares of USG, OC and EXP.

Generator plays: GNRC, BGG

Rebuilding municipal infrastructure will help VMC, AZZ and WCC.

Specific to home owners, people will need to paint over new sheetrock, helping shares of VAL, SHW. CE makes chemicals that go into paint, and BLL makes the cans.

Heavy construction will be needed. Hence shares of HEES, CAT and CNH are higher.

You can’t build without wood. WY, LL, UFPI, BXC and LPX are your plays.

If Sandy ruined your deck, don’t worry–TREX will provide you with the materials for a new one–cheaper than real wood.

Need new kitchen cabinets? MAS is your play.

Top rated general contractors inside of The PPT are: EME, PIKE and PWR.

All of this new material will need to be trucked in. ODFL, LSTR, YRCW, MRTN, HTLD and ABFS are your plays.

You can’t build a new home without concrete, flooring and a roof. BECN, AWI, MLM, CRH, TXI and CX.

Nuts and bolts? FAST.

Are you interested in buying some power tools? MSM, SWK are your plays.

Too cheap to buy new tools? Don’t worry, URI has your back.

Is your car filled with water? See about KAR, SMP, GPC and TRW.

After that, appliances will be in demand, helping SHLD, WHR, LOW and HD.

BLDR offers a wide array of building supplies and CLH, ECOL cleans up hazardous materials.

In short, if you were a bull on housing before this tragic storm, you have to be foaming at the mouth now. Beware of quick traders and profit taking, which is typical after an event like this. And of course, one must be vigilant ahead of the elections. Should Obama be elected for a 2nd term, dollars to donuts this market is going down 10% in fairly short order.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQcdsZVcJ5A

Following 4 straight months of gains, the SPY stands to lose about (BRACE YOURSELVES) 1.9% in the month of October. It feels much more than that because we relinquished gains and the tech heavy NASCRAP is off by almost 5%.

For me, October was a catastrophe, halving my annual gains thanks to gross stupidity.

Last year the market did very little in the months of November and December, basically trading flat.

I bring bad news for you market players out there.

This will be the 3rd worst October since 1999. The only other years when the NASDAQ traded off by more than 4% was in 2000 and 2008. Generally speaking, October is a very good month for stocks. In those down years of 2000 and 2008, the next month the market was destroyed, trading off by 22.9% and 11.4% respectively.

Of course circumstances were unique, with the dot com and housing bubbles contributing to the panic. However, it’s worth noting, is it not?

With my money, I am growing impatient and feel like raising more cash, not for safety, but so I can work from a clean slate–as I feel my current roster of stocks are infected by demons.

Hurricanes happen. DECK happens. Cancer happens. This is a message going out to the world: please shut the fuck up with the platitudes, like “NYers are strong and will persevere through this.” Give me a fucking break.

Disasters are Fukushima, New Orleans via Katrina or Berlin after the allies got done with it.

This is a logistical mess, mostly because local governmental retards had no contingency plans to deal with this unnatural disaster. People lost things, personal items, health, and some lost their lives. But the slogans need to fucking stop, else I’m gonna direct my orbital space cannon at your back up generators, leaving you cold and haunted on Halloween.

Also, the NYSE should continue to suck 10 dicks for closing the exchange for 2 days. America equals liquidity, in stocks, bonds and currency. You can’t depend on Tom, Dick and Harry to swim to work, in order to allow global trade to commence. NASDAQ and BATS were ready to go, but the antiquated NYSE decided to suck 10 dicks instead of conduct business-first time since 1888.

A fucking shame.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3_MXKDgR5E

“Fun time” is over. It’s time for you to get out from your flooded basement and GET BACK TO WORK.

Wall Street will be trading tomorrow; as a result, I intend to start banking coin again.

There was some negative news out of AAPL, with regards to executives leaving the firm. But the hurricane clean-up will take precedent, buoying an already buoyant construction materials market to the point of bliss. Everything from sheet rock to paint will be in demand. Contractors will be busy for months, cleaning up the mess.

My friend’s house was all but destroyed. This morning bull dozers are knocking down 900k homes, because they cannot be repaired. Down the block from him a father and his 13 year old daughter perished by drowning. In Queens a 6 alarm fire ripped through 100 homes. The northeast is ill prepared for these type of events. We’re not supposed to get hurricanes, let alone two years in a row.

From what I understand, ChessnWine is fine, but without power.

The lights are out here in Princeton, NJ. They’ve been out for about 2 hours now, forcing me to fire up the back up generator. It’s truly a vagabond thing to do in this day and age, when there are natural gas (whole house) generators on the market. I was going to have my electrician install one this summer, but opted to hold off for next year.

Without a back up generator, my sump pumps would fail. From what I was told, this very house flooded not once, but twice!, during last year’s storm. The previous owner installed another sump pump for good measure, which might come in hand this time around.

There are trees down everywhere, none on my property that I know of.

A very good friend of mine had to evacuate his home on Staten Island, tough son of a bitch who’d only evacuate if his life was on the line. Apparently the ocean made its way to his front porch and streamed right in. He is without flood insurance.

I have enough gasoline to power my generator for at least two days. There are two back up batteries, just in case, with 8 hour of life span attached, just in case.

So far, so good. But it’s getting fucking dicey as fuck out here. The Deacon of Death is upon me, in the most ironic way possible.

NOTE: Isn’t this fun, from a government conspiracy theory point of view?

BREAKING NEWS-

It’s raining and windy in New Jersey. Thus far, the electricity is holding up ’round these parts–but might go out later tonight. In any event, there is a generator and 20 gallons of gasoline in the garage to defend The House of Fly against such extremities. We are not in a flood zone. However, without electricity, sump pumps fail and basements flood.

Last I checked, futures were lower. For the love of Donald Trump’s unparalleled generosity, I don’t know why. Natural disasters are good for GDP, in a macabre sort of way. People need to chill the fuck out and acknowledge the power of The Turkey Gods.

Get out there kids and stock up on some furry boots from DECK, for The Winter is Coming and your feet are going to be cold.

GNRC is killing it with generator sales. HD and LOW were positively jam packed.

Refineries do well because people horde gasoline, not just for cars, but for generators. My friend owns 3 gas stations and hasn’t slept in a week. Business is booming.

Many moons ago, I created a “Hurricane Watchlist” inside The PPT. Whenever an event moves a specific sector, I like to create a watchlist and save it for future reference. Think of it as a stock market diary of sorts, a reminder to buy certain stocks under specific conditions, like hurricanes, terrorist attacks, war etc.

Here are some stocks of note from my Hurricane Watchlist (members can click on link for actual list)

ALJ
GNRC
DK
WNR
PIKE
USG
LL
ENR
VLO
PGTI
RSG
WM

Even though I am up 17% for the year, I’ve decided to implement some draconian changes to the way I buy and sell securities. Gone are the days of half measures and low conviction positions. Effective rather immediately, I am going to focus trades around a very specific thesis, one that I’ve been researching for a long, long time.

What is the ultra-trend with regards to humanity?

The answer is simple: people want to improve their lives. We want to live longer, healthier and be happy–all the fucking time. To get there, we buy “stuff” and use services that makes us happy. We want to eat healthy and tend to our illnesses whenever we get sick.

There are many ways to interpret “happy”, when discussing stocks. For me, I believe there are certain long term trends that cannot be discounted. People don’t want to eat unhealthy foods, which is why organic food sales will continue to do great. Longer term, MCD, WEN, YUM and BKW are shorts.

We want clean water and food that isn’t genetically modified. We want the best electronics and quality clothes.

Certain restaurants stand out from others, due to quality and freshness of food, which is why their stocks do well.

Without mentioning specific investment ideas, it’s really hard to explain what my angle is going to be. The wheels are in motion you will find out soon enough, small plebbers from the internets.

Zombie Fly will rise from the ashes and eat brains, organic of course, soon enough.

Thanks to the help of Chuck Bennett, I was able to secure a 4,000 watt generator, from some nefarious creature living in the backwoods of New Jersey. This ‘gent’ had a fairly large “jerk-off hole” in his pants and was heaving up a storm, like due to his emphysema like condition. His backyard was littered with lawn mowers (the riding type) and lots of other stolen goods. Chuck and I tried our best to not laugh in his face, instead opting to mildly mock his “Pakistani-like existence”–living in the part of NJ that no one gives a shit about.

I paid him $650 and went on my way.

The House of Fly is stocked with 6 months supply of grain and the pantry has more than 1 weeks worth of water/dry goods. The main concern stems from the high water table in the Princeton area, which has plagued many a basement with floods during power outages. The sump pumps must be energized, at all times. Since I just moved in, I have been unable to have a large natural gas, permanent, generator installed. I will make sure to do so next spring.

So I had to fish around for generators, finding myself #205 on the Sears waiting list. All hardware stores were sold out, within a 150 mile radius. It’s fucking ridiculous.

GNRC is making a killing.

For now, I’m kicking back, listening to some music, consuming sone Chimay Grande Reserve–putting two middle fingers up whenever the weather man speaks.

SVU, PPC, DDD and APKT were all big positions of mine. I sold them, but kept DECK and FFIV. This cannot be coincidence. There are dark forces at play here, cursing my house. These same devils are now bringing great, gargantuan hurricanes/snow storms, to my house–all at once. To make matters infinitely worse, I am without back-up generator. To think I might have to forgo the basic luxuries of the light bulb has me aghast with anger.

If any of you know of a hardware store in or around the Princeton area, who has generators, let me know. I’d greatly appreciate if you canvassed the entire area for me, as I am too busy getting punched in the scrotum to worry about my livelihood.

Stocks reversed off the lows and have POMO’d their way higher. I am demonstrating world class patience by holding onto my losers. There is a specific reason for that. I don’t want to make any new mistakes. The current mistakes have turned to ‘legacy’ ideas. All this talk of destruction is really overblown, as I am up more than 17% for the year. But my gains have been halved in about 3 weeks, so it feels like death.

The cold truth is, I’m a coal man, always have been, always will be. I need to get back in the mine, workin’ again.

Maybe next week will bring better fortunes. In the meantime, you should all say a prayer or two for Senor Tropicana, to make sure the Gods protect his assets and flower him with coin (no homo).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQqK_vUHrZI

My day cannot get worse. I have a large position getting mangled, and oh by the way all of my other positions are getting mangled too. One investor emailed me “DECK, WTF?”

Yes, DECK WTF, indeud.

It joyous to wake up to down 17% off abysmal earnings per share guidance.

The market is following suit, with everything getting taxed. The lack of momentum, I’m afraid, is leading up to a major move to the downside. Of course I am biased today, as I am consumed with The Black Death. I keep reminding myself, in a rain man sort of way, that “the manipulators don’t like to be made fun of,” over and over again–as if my vocabulary was restricted to just 9 words.

Let’s be clear: there is no tomorrow, only today. There will be time to make all of the money back, AND MORE. But right now is a very different matter.

I am talking about capitulation, gentlemen.

Prepare for it.