Obvious Hurricane Plays
The recovery may cost upwards of $50 billion. Whether you care to acknowledge it or not, housing is in full recovery mode, with values soaring nationwide (Phoenix +20%, Miami +8% yoy). Now with Sandy, people from the tri-state will need to rebuild, drawing from an already constrained building materials markets.
Sheetrock and insulation will be in high demand, helping shares of USG, OC and EXP.
Generator plays: GNRC, BGG
Rebuilding municipal infrastructure will help VMC, AZZ and WCC.
Specific to home owners, people will need to paint over new sheetrock, helping shares of VAL, SHW. CE makes chemicals that go into paint, and BLL makes the cans.
Heavy construction will be needed. Hence shares of HEES, CAT and CNH are higher.
You can’t build without wood. WY, LL, UFPI, BXC and LPX are your plays.
If Sandy ruined your deck, don’t worry–TREX will provide you with the materials for a new one–cheaper than real wood.
Need new kitchen cabinets? MAS is your play.
Top rated general contractors inside of The PPT are: EME, PIKE and PWR.
All of this new material will need to be trucked in. ODFL, LSTR, YRCW, MRTN, HTLD and ABFS are your plays.
You can’t build a new home without concrete, flooring and a roof. BECN, AWI, MLM, CRH, TXI and CX.
Nuts and bolts? FAST.
Are you interested in buying some power tools? MSM, SWK are your plays.
Too cheap to buy new tools? Don’t worry, URI has your back.
Is your car filled with water? See about KAR, SMP, GPC and TRW.
After that, appliances will be in demand, helping SHLD, WHR, LOW and HD.
BLDR offers a wide array of building supplies and CLH, ECOL cleans up hazardous materials.
In short, if you were a bull on housing before this tragic storm, you have to be foaming at the mouth now. Beware of quick traders and profit taking, which is typical after an event like this. And of course, one must be vigilant ahead of the elections. Should Obama be elected for a 2nd term, dollars to donuts this market is going down 10% in fairly short order.
83 Responses to Obvious Hurricane Plays
Insurers. Counter-intuitive until you look at past history and then take a minute to think about it.
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I’m not sure of the wait time for that move, I was ready to buy ALL – Allstate a week ago.
Today ALL and all the others listed as “Property & Casualty Insurance” in PPT: Accumulation scores were all 1.
Not a good day for insurance
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By the way a couple of folks on Fast Money were in total agreement with your thesis. Costs already accounted for, future earnings ++ higher premiums
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Nice post. Now why was I not buying GNRC and CLH last week. Indeud….
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HD for the win for sure, don’t forget about the shafts (no homo) in West Virginia.
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To the COB and EIC,
Awesome picture selection lately sitting aside your blog headlines!
Thanks
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Obama has no chance of a 2nd term…Please check out The V.Kingdom to find out why…
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I have been polled three times and my answer has been “0bama all the way”. Others like me are fooling the media-industrial complex.
For this reason the results on the night of Nov 6th will surprise Mr. Barry Barrack Hussein Sotero 0bama.
I have been called 3 times by Organizing For America (0′s group).
I think it’s because I live in Fl.and am a registered Dem. I should be Independent but haven’t bothered to change since I voted for McGovern in ’72 when I was in college,
The first time I told them that I was going to early vote for Roseanne Barr because I liked her TV show and 0 was too conservative.
They called back two days later and I said 0 was the man.
Then I got a call two weeks later and said I won’t vote for the America hating Jew hating 0 but I didn’t know who was running on the other side
I had some fun with them.
All my Tribal buds are very anti-O right now.
Even some of the more libby ones. They are not digging his “who are you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes” on Israel and Ben Ghazi (a great actor, especially in “Roadhouse”).
Teacups is the last delusional on this board, I think… still buying O’s bullscheiss… a head shaker I will explore tonight… “developing”
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I have been down to South Fl.a couple of times in the last few weeks and there are huge billboards off I-95 starting in Palm Beach County that say “Oy Vey-Had Enough”
One paper had an article about Debbie Wasserman Schultz having to spend more time in her District as her opponent was within the margin now.
Glad to see voters in her district are sentient.
How she got elevated to “spokesperson” status is beyond me. She gets housed in every interview… even the “friendly” ones.
Who next for the Dems? Alan Grayson?
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MSNBC Tuesday totally trashed Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney for collecting food and supplies at a storm relief rally in Ohio to be sent to victims of Hurricane Sandy. Seriously, WTF did they want him to do? He cancelled all campaign stops even though he is not the sittng President, yet the radical leftists at CNBC blasted him for it anyhow:
Bloomberg told Odumbo to skip his NYC grandstanding attempt because he needs to keep emergency vehicles flowing smoothly. While the ‘hider-of-his-records-in-chief’ is flying around in a Helicopter with Gov ‘I will work for Twinkies’ Christie to make a grandstanding speech and ‘bravel stand in a puddle of water, Romney is forced to halt campaigning or the press will eviscerate him for it.
This whole thing simply stinks. If Jon Corzine were a REPUBLICAN ex-Senator, the MF Global bankruptcy
(Which was one of the ten biggest of ALL time) would be getting talked about in the socialist mainstream media everyday – the Atty Gen’l would be prosecuting, and the NY Slimes would blame Romney. There are 2 sets of rules in American politics, one for the right, and one for the extreme left…
(Sorry thats MSNBC not CNBC)
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Can we stick to stocks?
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How could we do that? Everyone thinks they are an expert at politics.
But trading stocks is harder. No matter how much a person brags, it means nothing if they end up losing their shirt.
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LOL… Check your last line chief.
If O’Bama, your Irish friend, wins, it will affect many stocks.
All, in fact… with the exception, perhaps of large refrigerator box manufacturers, as they will then become “the hot housing trade.”
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Time will tell.
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I thought it was going down if Romney was elected?
Wait, stocks never go down again, ever.
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Fly,
are you holding on VHC. there trial begins today…. where are you getting info about it
Bill
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I think the elections will be a non-event. I know my investing behavior won’t change if Romney or Obama is elected. Besides, we don’t even know what Romney will do once in office. Good luck on passing a 0% capital gains tax!
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My investing behavior will change…maybe for 2 days.
Romney Wiiners: coal
Obama Winners: Gold, alt. energy
either one: buy CLSTRFK
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Massive sell off if O’Solyndra wins.
The end of the U.S…. turn out the lights and start looking for land in Texas…
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Oklahoma. Being illegal is legal in Tejas.
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Insurers will be raising cash, selling securities.
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More likely – raising premiums across the board.
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Just to let you know-the Greenwich Village Halloween parade has been postponed.
This has been an Ibc public service message.
funnsy story – a few years ago I was walking through that parade on my way back from the pharmacy (no costume) with a bottle of Scope in a paper bag. An undercover cop started to chase me, I had no idea he was a cop, so I ran away. When he caught me he confiscated what he thought was booze, and started laughing when he opened the bag.
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He was pissed because he thought he was going to get his drink on…
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He was pissed because he couldn’t get pissed.
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Insurance companies always win, even when it appears they are losing very badly.
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Not so Obvious Hurricane Play : TLT
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On insurers’ immunization positioning? I’m not understanding the play.
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bot SHW
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I am loath to disagree with your top-hatted opinion. But, markets do better under Democrats, and will continue if Fuhrer Obama is re-elected.
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Yeah, those markets did excellent under FDR and Carter.
This is what we are talking about here. Dumbocrats like to point to Clinton, who was hamstrung after his second year of trying to socialize the country by one of the most conservative Congresses since the days of Madison (remember Newt?).
The problem with Solyndra Jack is that he doesn’t believe in “going along to get along” and thinks the Executive Pen is a license to become Hugo Chavez North.
He’ll blow this hizzy up rather than cede one point to the Newtish side.
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Yep. Record number of executive orders. Not even close. Abuses the executive office.
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Agreed. If O wins, the S&P doubles within a few years. Everyone in politics seems to rob the middle class, but the Democrats rob them less than Repubs do.
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The Democrats are destroying the “middle class.”
Save for a few apparatchiks necessary for the survival of the State, we are fast approaching Feudalism.
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Romney for the win, rather, landslide, write it down.
Btw, Clinton’s market coincided with the emergence of the internet. The market would’ve soared if a monkey was at the helm.
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Frog, your mind left ‘the pnd’ a long time ago. If Hussein Obama wins the mkt will not double, the USA will become the USSA, redistribution will begin in earnest, there will be even MORE food stamps, ACLU and UN intervention in Americas affairs (he has invited the UN to come ‘observe ‘ American elections). Am I the only one outraged? Barry Soetoro is BAD news for the economy, BAD news for the USA.
Here’s what Hussein Obama REALLY thinks of America with 20 Comments You Never Saw:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3wh2XT4e8M&feature=related
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How is chessNwine doing? Haven’t seen anything from him for a couple of days. Hope all is well with him after the Hurricane.
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Last we heard here he was still without electric power. Tons of people still are.
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BTW, FLY:
Mucho compliments to young Jeremiah (aka “Admin”) on that cover photo… perhaps one of the best parodic photoshops I’ve seen yet.
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For the record, I am the author of that Obama cover photo, not Jeremy.
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Just a day or so ago I opined a hurricane play to be CLH,Clean Harbors, Inc. WTF, up 8% today! After all, there still is some logic to this business.
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Amazing stat:
Fly’s Hurricane list is 50 stocks
48 of them are up today
42 of them are up over 1%
Screw the election! I want to shop and be drunk in a month.
Let make money!
USG OC EXP VMC AZZ WCC VAL SHW CE BLL HEEs CAT CNH BLL WY LL UFPI BXC LPX TREX MAS EME PIKE PWR ODFL LSTR YRCW MRTN HTLD ABFS BECN AWI MLM CRH TXI CX FAST MSM SWK URI KAR SMP GPC TRW SHLD WHR LOW HD BLDR CLH ECOL
I left out GNTC and BGG
Make that 52, 50 up, and 44 up over 1%
That list had a MONSTER day.
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Obama WILL be re-elected boys, don’t kid yourself. They need you to focus on something other than things that matter, Romney can’t provide that kind focus… Obama can…
“Don’t trade against the trend.” I herd one smart guy say once….
Romney, landslide.
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And the Dow at new highs, yes I’m familiar with the song and dance.
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apparently you’re not.
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Clever retort.
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Romney will win so bad that half the democrats will defect into a third party, stemming from the occupy type of crowd.
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To nicely compliment that Tea Party thing the Republicans have going on?
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Anyone have an opinion on the trucking company, swft? Seems to fly under the mainstream radar.
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No. Yet if a major e.q. hits so cal and the San onofre nuclear plant levels a three or more mile radius range, the main route between San Diego and orange counties will be under construction for a very long time and, of course, disrupt transport, in this state.
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More unrelated and unasked for information, is, that a workers’ truck, an asphalt maintenance truck and at least one man of Latino decent parked in front of our property today, waited till I tasted the tangerines my mom claimed were sweet, found she was right this time, and the truck pulled away, as if satisfied. I didn’t speak a word with him and I went out wearing no form of eyewear, incidentally, accidentally, another memory-failure thing. I hope this is not TMI….
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Oh, yeah, I was smoking a nearby at the time as well.
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GNRC-Price Target $38.00
KeyBanc Capital Markets Upgrades Generac Holdings to Buy on Demand Outlook
http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/12/10/3043179/update-keybanc-capital-markets-upgrades-generac-holdings
Great post fly, only problem with equities right now is TLT is bullish as hell, but so are miners so thats kinda weird
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Getting any trick or treaters? The whole event is dying due to lazyiness and an abundance of crap from chink. The shit is so cheap and they eat it all the time so why go out in the rain and cold door to door?
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We haven’t had trick or treaters at our house in at least 3-4 years.
I live on 3 acres (homes here are 2-4 acres) and surrounded by woods.
No streetlights and possible black bear action.
Either way I still buy my favorite bag of candy and gives me an excuse to pig out on Mounds Bars.
I will say (like every year) “Oh, well, maybe next year.”
T&T count down here as well up in the puckerbrush of Northern Michigan.
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No T&T (I like that Mr.Heaterman) yet and I am now on my 6th Mounds Bar.
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You Far Right Wingers, I look forward to seeing you each take your whole portfolio & use it to go short, as soon as Obama gets elected.
And since you are so very sure of yourselves, feel free to just hold on short for the next 4 years.
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It’s called short because the market doesn’t drop for long.
Stocks to 36k by 2016 after a Romney win…
3rd party occupy party will emerge in 2016 led by Jessie Ventura and market will have biggest crash.
I want Obama to win and I still am net short. This is bigger than presidents. The economies of the world are in a downward cascade. Tell me, how long until Europe recovers? You can fit the entire US population into the brand new empty Chinese condo complexes. There is no doubt in my mind that the Obama people kept the market afloat this year. Next year it won’t matter. We retest 666 by July.
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We sell a buttload of this line (amongst others) in our hardware store. They are a bolt for bolt copy of Hondas products. It’s decent equipment.
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The “Trike-Truck” haha…love it, throw a ski on the front and stud the rears
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Their stuff is shit. Cheap metal. Things break. No parts stocked.
Our local scooter dealership stopped handling their products and apologized to all their customers stuck with broken stuff.
Sorry kids, no candy, Obama redistributed it all.
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And Mitt Romney just shot BigBird in the head, you lose!
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Inconclusive election result pending recounts.. The Republicans steal it through corrupt supreme court decisions.
Hey. It’s worked once already.
You are 100% right. In Ohio, the holdup will be “Provisional ballots” which the Republicans will arrange to swing OH Republican.
MAYBE by Thanksgiving.
The only hope for America is if Romney has 251 or fewer Electoral votes excluding Ohio.
Then the false count won’t help.
I actually think this will be the case. How ANYONE could want a lying, squirming, no-principles shit-stained WEASEL like Romney is beyond belief.
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You forget GLDD as coastlines need to be repared and foreign dredgers cant do the job due toe the “Jones Act”
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WNR-non-cash, pre-tax, unrealized hedging loss of $152.8 million.
I love how WNR hedges all their profits away.
Fly, I am holding my WNR, what is your impression of it? (no homo)
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My WNR is holding up considering the earnings miss.
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IDTI-up 5% on a downgrade? Can’t find any news to justify today’s gain, anyone?
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MSFT up 2.5%, Looks like ATML is riding on MSFT’s success.
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DDD-The shorts continue to get de-balled! I’m still holding.
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