Even though I am up 17% for the year, I’ve decided to implement some draconian changes to the way I buy and sell securities. Gone are the days of half measures and low conviction positions. Effective rather immediately, I am going to focus trades around a very specific thesis, one that I’ve been researching for a long, long time.
What is the ultra-trend with regards to humanity?
The answer is simple: people want to improve their lives. We want to live longer, healthier and be happy–all the fucking time. To get there, we buy “stuff” and use services that makes us happy. We want to eat healthy and tend to our illnesses whenever we get sick.
There are many ways to interpret “happy”, when discussing stocks. For me, I believe there are certain long term trends that cannot be discounted. People don’t want to eat unhealthy foods, which is why organic food sales will continue to do great. Longer term, MCD, WEN, YUM and BKW are shorts.
We want clean water and food that isn’t genetically modified. We want the best electronics and quality clothes.
Certain restaurants stand out from others, due to quality and freshness of food, which is why their stocks do well.
Without mentioning specific investment ideas, it’s really hard to explain what my angle is going to be. The wheels are in motion you will find out soon enough, small plebbers from the internets.
Zombie Fly will rise from the ashes and eat brains, organic of course, soon enough.
84 Responses to Drastic Changes Ahead
so now you’re a socially responsible investor?!
Not even close.
There are certain long term trends that can explain why some stocks are massive winners, while others are losers.
I’m just going to focus on it more.
so,…u a trend trader?
what are your thoughts on trend trading by the way?
Cramer did 5 mega trends a couple years ago:
1. Healthy Eating
2. Security – USA / Homeland
4. Ag – Global Food Shortage
5. Global energy savings
Not a bad list from a macro standpoint
Over time wants become needs.
Maslow’s need hierarchy? self actualization?
water filter cartridges, activated carbon filters.
Oh please…here we go again.
Whether one believes in some of those “long term trends” or not (to me -some are just fads) one would have to be a long term investor.
Peter Lynch (Fidelity Magellan fame) exploited these long term trends.
Fly is a trader and not an investor.
Also, the market has changed since the Lynch days and turnover is more frequent.
In any event, stay safe Fly family.
Different time. You can trade around trends, It doesn’t mean buy and hold.
the herbalife shit ponzi scheme?
cbis ? mjna ? natural meds ? just guessing ..
Marijuana is for vagrants.
An AAPL, amzn, wfm or bnny fits the thesis.
too bad there isn’t money to be made shorting the current crop of organized religions aka the holy business and it’s warty outgrowth –> politics … or is there?
Shorting them? I would go long them if it were possible. They are big, wealthy, powerful & dominant.
iow, the trend is your friend and the trend is intact?
They are death spirals in the making
Don’t ever sell Jesus short, son.
He cycled out of the Dark Ages thanks to some thrifty Celtic monks, ain’t no way He’s going anywhere now.
Good Post Le Fly
Always took you for a Coal man.
Off to Appalachia hooking up with fat Mtn Women.
Little known secret about Appalachian womens…
Guess where Dolly Parton is from?
I know you have a “rail gun” at the house, but any involvement with these Space Rods, Fly?
Here’s an attempt at a drastic change. Look who sponsored the bill. The resident Muslim community organizer in the house. Then think about who else this sounds like.
It’s HR6411 and sounds like real fun for investors.
Inclusive Prosperity Act – Amends the Internal Revenue Code to:
(1) impose a tax on the transfer of ownership in certain securities, including any share of stock in a corporation, any partnership or beneficial interest in a partnership or trust, any note, bond, debenture, or other evidence of indebtedness (excluding tax-exempt municipal bonds), or derivative financial instruments; and
(2) allow an individual taxpayer whose modified adjusted gross income does not exceed $50,000 a tax credit for the amount of tax paid on financial transactions under this Act.
If it will stop HFT from making more flash crashes & other problems, it will be worth it. And if it’s a small enough tax, it won’t have much effect on anyone except the HFT folks who trade zillions of times per day.
And how stupid do you have to be to keep claiming Obama is a Muslim?
How stupid do you have to be for wanting to increase the cost of capital in front of the worst Recession Recovery since FDR last stained the earth?
Answer: “Democrat Stupid.”
Slap a small ala $1 fee on any order that is cancelled less than 5 seconds from being submitted. Tax gains from trades lasting less than 1 minute at 75%.
That latter bit is still a tax on capital (and liquidity) and still increases the cost of capital.
The “withdrawn” fee doesn’t seem unreasonable, although I’m not sure it would effect anything in the end.
Former McDonald’s exec’s started a CA vegan “fast” food restaurant. I will buy their IPO in the coming years… http://lyfekitchen.com/
I like HAIN?
Is it on your radar?
CLH may see a revenue rush following major marine destruction and spillages.
Wow, markets are closed tomorrow.
Bunch of pussies
Yeah… cuz the hurricane…hmmmm
US Markets might be closed Tuesday as well, per the WSJ (article titled, “Markets Go Dark Ahead of Storm”).
Per the article, there were complaints to the SEC that a partial close would be too “complicated” for some firms. Major market participants would not have enough time to adjust and test changes to their trade-routing programs in preparation for Monday.
Turn on those damn trading robots!
DAMN!! Because I have more money to lose!! Fuck it!!
1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO.
2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE OUT THE ’62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO IT AGAIN.
3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE.
4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS ZERO FATALITIES.
5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE!
6. CAPS LOCK ATTACK!!!! AGRHHHHH!
My initial reaction, exactly.
The Fly is God.
No, the Lord made Fly in his own image and likeness.
and said, let their be stocks” and there were stocks and it was good. Then along came OSG tempting Fly to eat of DECK’s fruits and he did, and the lord sent a hurricane and said to the Fly “get a backup generator so you can survive the huricane which reigned for 4 days and 4 nights and so he did. Then he reemerged from the ashes like a phoenix stronger than ever and came back buying stocks and generating wealth for himself and his clients and it was good… very good indued!
Spell-check and grammar check has failed me! That was like my C game…. wtf happened there… or should I say “their” again like an idiot.
Isn’t that saying buy wind power?
I call bias perspective.
Been to a Walmart lately?
Don’t see your trend yet. We are still a bunch of fat asses in this country.
Regrettably, the masses are asses.
Self inflicted poor decision making is a major cause of the situation the middle and lower class are in.
Great Stock Stories didn’t work in Oct 2008, why should they now?
You really comparing today to Oct 2008? Seriously?
At least on the private side, market multiples are currently HIGHER than they were in 2008.
Similar froth in the “story” stocks (aka, “HAIN” etc).
1)President and congress have similar approval ratings (low)
2)face a very large hurricane
3)in an election year
4)face criticism over foreign policy decisions
5)stocks have high multiples, low dividend rates historically.
6)New York is getting hit by a storm (financial or an actual storm)
7)Robert Gates is the defense secretary.
8)Division among congress and house
9)rising people on food stamps
10)rising federal deficit
11)low interest rates
12)housing prices still at bargain prices compared to historically to interest rates and rental income rates.
14)Gas prices may have slid lately but looking from their recent highs before the slide they were at or near record highs and still historically very high (much higher now than in 2008)
15)amount of private corporate activity is terrible
There are a few major differences such as the amount of liquidity although some argue excess credit and liquidity in 2005, 2006 and 2007 created a bubble causing the problem, and the recent trend of housing has been very positive. Yet, we still face a fiscal cliff and a tax Armageddon after the election. Of course stocks are much higher than in 2008. Some things are much better, some things are much worse, other things are about the same.
1) Approval ratings are low most years. So what?
2) I’m not from the NY area but did anyone outside there give a shit about a hurricane in 2008? I honestly don’t know because I can’t remember anything along those lines. Most people would probably wish it wiped out all of Wall Street at that time. Non factor.
3) Presidential elections happen every four years. So what?
4) We’re always criticised about foreign policy. So what?
5) Are these the only two years with high multiples and low dividends? Don’t think so.
6) New York was getting hit by a storm last year. Fuck all came out of it. So what?
7) Who gives a shit who the Defense Secretary is?
8) Division between Senate and House is nothing new. So what?
9) OK. You’re one for nine so far. Congrats.
10) Federal deficit has been rising a lot longer than just 2008 to present. So what?
11) Interest rates have been pretty low for more than just 2008 and 2012. So what?
12) Housing prices were collapsing in 2008 but they were not bargin bin prices yet.
13) Bullshit. One of the main reasons for the calamity of 2008 was the credit markets seized up.
14) Gas prices were high in spring 2011 as well. So what?
15) What the fuck is “private corporate activity”? If you mean stuff like M&A then think real hard back to Oct 2008 and try to remember just how many deals were getting done. Well let’s not count the ones where Paulson had a gun stuck to the heads of various financial firm CEOs. Those were sort of made under duress.
In the context of this discussion I don’t care who the Secretary of Defense is, but just so as you know his name is Leon Panetta.
Weirdo Jay..that was a great list. Po of course I compare this to 2008, actually imho this is worse, In 2008 we hit the peak of a liquidation rally fueled by speculation in commodities centered around fixed assets. Now, 2012 we have another liquidity rally which fueled specultation in fixed assets (not so much housing, but base metals), once the Copper Market, etc, topped off when LME hit 10,000 in Feb 2011..the market, fueled by liquidity from LTRO/QE went into growth assets of Tech, Consumer, Energy. Now, that liquitidy is slowing, we are stopping ala 2008..Oil had that killer short squeeze when Buzzard shut down and Iran/Syria heated up..but now Buzzard should be opening (have to check that) and Syria has a temp ceasefire and Iran supply is not a key issue, supply is in massive over supply and The Energy rally is fizzling., Tech has a weak AAPL, all 2008 events (Oil Rally collapsing, etc)..well except we now have Greece, Spain, etc with massive unemployment and fear of BK and at USA with almost a zero interest rate and a Fed that had made historical moves and still have a weak economy. IMHO, we are leading into a massive Deflationary, Deleveraging period that will make 2008 look like a cake walk.
UK’s North Sea Buzzard oilfield yet to resume output, restart now seen later this week according to a trade source
If you didn’t plug the generator direct – ( not recommended ) and you lose power – did I mention you’ll need a LOT of mega size extension cords and at least 5 gal gas per day … I spent most of one driving around town for 5 gal containers years ago -
p.s. we plug in the fridge, microwave, TV and here in toasty FL fans are a must…
shower now ! the hot water won’t last long if on electric.- back to being drunk on hysteria > tri staters !
markets closed because of hurricane weather? pussies!
ATML-There are three Atmel MXT154E touchscreen controllers located o the daughterboard of the new Microsoft Surface.
I am long ATML and MSFT.
I think the new trend should be trading “paper-only” certs outside the stock exchange, via shady trench-coated dealers.
AKA, “Oppah Buttonwood Style.”
If you would like to bypass the media side show, check out intellicast.com
On the main page click the wxMap link on the menu bar. Zoom in and use map settings to turn on and off various layers, like wind speed.
Is this the beginning of the end?
The Mayans were right all along and this is just the start.
Are you from California?
No, people out west are CRAY.
Uncouth as well.
Mayans had many calenders that ended, the idea was that after one ens it completes the cycle, and then the cycle starts over again. But this is supposed to be based on an interpretation of the calender (that may be wrong) that the LONG count ends. It is the end of the world, as WE know it, and start of a new cycle, not the end of civilization, that’s just hype.
BUT! The Mayan are hiding under the ground along with Reptilians and they will all come out soon and dance like Michigan J Frog!
Hello my Baybee! Hello my Dahlin’! Hello my Rag Time gaaaaalllll!
They’ll be coming out from underground when they meet the business end of a SLB frac unit complete with a few million gallons of stimulation fluid.
This is all the plan! Obama will intentionally use HAARP to attack Wallstret and then when they are weak, he will send out army guys to capture them and while interrogating them, literally feed them peas and make them eat! It was his plan from the start if you just listen, he was talking in code! Then, if all else fails, he will suspend the election and declare martial law due to national emergency.
crap, I think I’m not funny anymore
Multi-year pedriatric study proves eating organic improved well-being by ….nada, zero, zip. Except cost the consumers 30% more. So maybe we’ll ease back on the stuff. But I think eating grilled chicken salads instead of grease is here to stay.
How about 30yr cancer studies? Oh yeah, they don’t exist.
Cancer grows faster than 30 years, particularly in labrats.
Totally agree. This was my thesis behind making tons of $$$ in AAPL over past 8 years. Same with AMZN and CMG – both were growing like wildfire with incredible leadership. I can’t forget one of the first stocks I ever made a killing on in college: GOOG. Purchased IPO because it was a shitload better than any other search engine. Go long what you know is growing rapidly and trending before it catches on. Make sure fundamentals are sound and lots of cash on hand. Warren Buffet-Style.
So which are you in for long, if I may ask ?
Nice changes. I salute your positive and constructive ‘new leaf’.
A startup called AutoGrid is looking to provide big data analytics — the same type of analytics that companies like Amazon and Netflix use for their web recommendation engines — for the power grid. Tools like this will be needed, given that down the road there could be more data created by the power grid than by the Internet.
link @ gigamon.com
I get why they close markets because of weather, but option markets? CBOE is in Chicago hence CBOE (Chicago board of option equities). Hardly Hurricane problems there. I know, the underlying securities is what options trade off of, but it could still price stocks as if stocks are priced at certain levels that they would expect if the markets were open, no? Now I’m stuck in weekly contracts that expire on Friday and I only get 4, maybe 3 trading days instead of 5.
I feel you, but no. I’m long CRUS options that I intended to close before earnings tonight, but it shall not be. You couldn’t just price off the last stock price on Friday, something could have happened over the weekend that would have moved the price, for example.
Every trading strategy has risk and hidden flaws. Nature sides with the hidden flaw.
Haven’t seen any update from you. Hope you are doing fine and good luck to you and your family.
monsieur le fly,
after lurking for several years i feel compelled to comment after your “drastic changes ahead” post. lately i find myself at whole foods for dinner, the kids request it now after a last minute sushi feed there a few weeks ago. that and jamba juice, which they chant from the backseat if we pass one on our daily meanderings. here in california we vote on GMO labeling (prop 37) soon, the issue has been “trending” amongst our local playground milfs and stay-at-home dads like myself. so i think you’re on to something here, looking forward to more insights on the subject. for me, JMBA is especially intriguing, the other day while sipping on some peets i saw a pt cruiser with the jamba juice logo fused to the doors, looked like a regional manager guy doing his rounds, so i decided to confront him and ask about business, i told him that my kids request his product and he mentioned that the company is now serving up smoothies at K through 12 schools, he also said there are a few joint ventures which he couldnt talk about….i rolled my eyes but wound up starting a position for kicks. anyway, some info from the peanut gallery, good luck as we head into the year end.