Friday Fun, With Oil

What a wonderful coincidence to see oil spiraling higher again, just after a peace agreement was reached in the Ukraine. I wonder what they have that we want over there? Maybe Jesus’ bones are buried there, or perhaps some rare earth metal, which can be used for our cellular mobile telephones? Either way, oil is definitely making the seasonal gods look meaningful this morning.

This play is very, very easy. Buy the oil stocks that are down most, who have massive short positions in them, and then crush the skulls of those embedded short inside of them. If you’re bored, you can do this over and over again. It’s a lovely game, indeud.

Here is my execution list.

SFY
CRK
EPE
UPL
PGN
NOG
REXX
WTI
BBG
PACD
EXXI
SLCA
BAS
FMSA

Bear in mind, most of those names are complete shit and will wipe out your family fortune, should you fall into a coma and wake up a year from now. The best name on that list, by far, is SLCA. They are the real deal, vendors of beach sand to rednecks who enjoy contaminating drinking water.

It’s worth noting, I’d be reducing oil positions into this melt up. I’m actually looking at banks and some steel here, namely BBD, VALE and TCK.

My only question to you is, now that every single short thesis has been repudiated and rejected, will you shut up now?

I added to my YNDX position.

I sold ACAT (+11%) and averaged down in BABA.

I also sold DVN to reduce my exposure to crude and bought SBNY, which will be a long term position.

I haven’t really talked about the majority of my positions in a long time. Instead, I’ve focused solely on some of my swing trades, which for the most part, is a smaller portion of my overall assets under management.

I have two major losers on the books: SLCA, YELP. I have a choice to make with them.

1. Raise capital to average down.
2. Ignore them.
3. Cut them loose.

I do not want to sell them, not here. But, I don’t want to add to them either. So, for the time being, I am going to ignore them and make money elsewhere.

My long term account is now at the highs of the year, up 6%. Where am I making my gains?

AAPL +45%
BX +12%
STZ +31%
GILD +12%
FB +120%
HCA +7%
HAIN +32%
HAR +29%
JAZZ +16%
N +17%
PANW +46%
BID +19.5%
TOL +11%
WFM +49%
ACAT +11%

As you can see, I have been picking some good stocks over the past 6 months. But you fuckers were too focused on the likes of GPRO and BALT to notice. I have some future winners in the making too. I think ICPT, OXY, HABT and MUSA work long term. Short term, I think PEIX, PACD and FMSA will give me ideal exits points. Overall, I am long almost 40 names, which is a big change from how I’ve been positioned over the past 7 years. In the past I’d concentrate my positions and rip in and out of them with frequency. What I am trying to do now is be more patient and let winners win. The only way I am able to do that is by having a wide array of holdings, none constituting more than 5% of capital.

As for active swing trades, those are still overweight. I intend to leverage those trades to bolster my returns.

On February the 15th, peace and harmony will reign in the Ukraine. That gives the lads over there just 3 more days to kill and maim one another. If you are a soldier in Russia or in the Ukraine and you are reading this blog, let me just say you are wasting valuable time. Get the fuck off the computers and grab your Kalashnikov and get out there. A peace accord has been reached and war will expire in exactly 3 days.

On another front, a deal between the Nazis and the rear-end of Europe has been reached as well.

All of this culminates to one desirable effect: THE COMPLETE ERADICATION OF ALL SEMBLANCES OF THE BEARISH POPULATION.

Consider today a repudiation of who you are, not just your investment intelligence. This is more than just a rally; this is mockery, largess. Shame on all of you for missing out on this easy to predict outcome. A great shame, as well as pox, looms over your house.

As for me, I’ve been celebrating the gains to be had in my YNDX position amidst large vats of hot coffee. I did not require sleep last night, as I was kept up by the ramblings that take place inside of my head, new ventures, ideas, opinions and the like.

Oil is roaring higher, since a deal in the Ukraine means we are no longer required to bankrupt Moscow. Ergo, oil back to $100. Fuck you very much.

Everything is exactly what it seems, for good or for worse.

Celebrating America’s 14th consecutive year at war, President Obama asked congress for permission (lolz) to attack ISIS. What’s especially innovative about this new enemy is the sheer stupidity of it. After we left Iraq, a power vacuum was established. All of the crazies broke out from prison and took up arms in the name of a mythical creature.

These escapees soon banded together to form a standing army and carved out their own little paradise on earth, known as The Islamic State. In their spare time, they get to toss homosexuals off roof tops, stone women to death, and behead countless infidels for not praying to the correct mythical creature.

Now enter the US military apparatus. We’ve had a rough time dealing with terrorist organizations because they like to blend in with civilians and blow up cafes when we least expect it. But this ISIS group isn’t into subtlety. They actually believe that their stupid little army of roaming idiots can stand up to the full might and power of the largest military-industrial complex the world has ever known. We are going to slaughter them by the bushel. Their guts will be used to grease the treads of our tanks (extra Patton).

This battle to come against the dumbest army on the planet is going to top off Obama’s legacy as the single best Commander in Chief since FDR. Not only that, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will soar because of it, paving the way for a future Presidency for none other than Mrs. Michelle Obama.

Not much doing today, unless you enjoy watching paint dry. As for me, I’ve had plumbers plumbing away at the kitchen ceiling since yesterday, them and their monkey wrenches. After they’re done, then my sheetrock guy, from the Ukraine, comes to make everything look like new. He fucking hates Putin.

Almost 70% of stocks are lower today and GPRO, YELP and DDD are popping up on my momo screens. This is all wrong.

By the way, go check the earnings calendar to make sure you’re not indadvertedly riding swing trades into earnings. It’s no joke out there. Stocks are being executed for missing whisper numbers, especially those with high expectations.

I’ve spent the majority of my time researching regional bank stocks. Under the radar, there has been a renaissance in regional banking, with revenues and earnings going through the roof. Some of these banks are growing revenues and earnings at 40% clips. Should rates rise and the yield curve steepen, there could very well be a wave of consolidation that permits these companies to merge and become super-regionals.

You want my list? I bet you do, you fucking lazy clams. Well, I am not giving it to you.

Okay, I’ll give you a few: CUBI, EGBN, PB.

There’s a lot more; you should go check out the sector.

Late afternoon prediction: Dow closes down 57, SPY down 2, Nasdaq up 9.

It’s nearly impossible to know where oil is going next. Seasonality says we go higher until April. Be that as it may, one cannot be cocksure about such a plan, post apocalypse of oil. I still own a shit load of oil stocks and that will certainly crush my bones into dust if oil were to, let’s say, submarine down to $30. But that’s why I made AAL my second largest position, to hedge such a black-out scenario.

I cannot believe we are still discussing Greece after all of these years. I think it’s clear as the day is long, austerity doesn’t work and the fucking Germans are still evil. Either way, we’ll get through this and the end of the world is not at hand. When the end does come, trust me when I tell you, I will be the first to find out.

I don’t have any early predictions for you this morning. Just trade the market in front of you, not the one you envisioned as a wee lad growing up in Belfast. I think we have a few more down days in crude stocks before a sharp reversal. In the meantime, airlines should do well, specifically those unhedged like AAL and ALGT.

Most of you punks were popping pimples, or grabbing your balls, during the Asian contagion through dot com bubbles. Some of you survived the 2008 collapse, only because you didn’t have bread in the game. Most of you still don’t have bread in the game, yet claim to be traders. Even more of you unskilled laborers shit on Wall street daily, yet spend inordinate amounts of time reading up on investing legends in a half-baked attempt to achieve personal success.

Very simply, you’re out of your depth. This business isn’t for everyone and I’ll be damned if I am going to listen to the likes of you, swinging like an idiot on a vine from one 3x ETF to the next, parading around the internets as an authority on risk management.

Listen to me, son: if you don’t have an idea why you’re buying XYZ, then you’re just pissing in the wind. Where is your religion?

“The Fly” has a true religion and he is emboldened by what he sees now. All of the things he’s been looking for are coming together now. The table is being set and grandeur awaits.

Back to the matter of you. Why would I take baseball hitting instruction from a guy who never even made it onto his varsity high school team? Eventually, the gig is up and your lack of sophistication will lead to your own undoing.

I’ve been doing this shit for too long to even think about what other people are doing and how their methods continuously fuck them out of grabbing the big prize when the big prize is for the grabbing.

You only get a handful of chances to capture big wins, in any given year. You have to be out there, drawing the punches, taking the hits, and leveraging into a storm to capture it.

Are you man enough to take the hits?