Has the Dollar Topped?

Don’t look now, the dollar has been trending lower for a few months now. Interestingly enough, the gains in the dollar coincided with the bottoming out in oil. The interest rate complex has shifted, as yields race higher and the curve widens. It’s the polar opposite of what we’ve seen in the market for the past 6 months. Hardly anyone I know believes it will last. But what if it does?

Is there anyone out there suggesting oil is back and the dollar is heading straight to the sewer pipes?

How about copper bulls? Anyone?

Iron and steel players? No?

Or, how about gold and silver bugs? I know some of you doom and gloomers are still stockpiling that shit in your bloomers. But, for the most part, the investment community has given up on the trade.

I am tossing a lot of questions out there, addressing an idiot reader class. I apologize for inserting additional pressures into your daily monotony. It’s bad enough you need to figure out how to boil a cup of soup, or melt cheese atop your elbow’d macaronis.

I am going to play The Devil here tonight and put together a basket of commodity related stocks for you, names that may benefit from the drop in the dollar and a return to sweet glorious 1970’s American styled inflation.

Copper: FCX
Gold: ABX
Oil: PDCE
Industrial Metals: TCK
Oil Exploration: CLR
Oil Equipment: NOV
Chemicals: WLK
Steel/Iron: VALE
Machinery: JOY

Those stocks, for the most part, are the best of the best in their respective industries. When buying distressed sectors, you really want to stick to the bigger names, otherwise if you’re wrong you’ll get clown raped on a downturn. The above stocks might not make you 100% like some small capped lotto tickets; but they’ll get you started in the right direction–providing the dollar continues to get fucked and people delude themselves into believing China is back in play.

CRM is halted off news that MSFT might empty its coffers to buy it. Any deal to buy CRM is going to send shocks through the software industry. It will place MSFT at the pinnacle of the heap, yet again, firmly placing Lawrence Ellison in the ‘fag box‘ for eternity.

Benioff, CEO and founder of CRM, started at ORCL and is good friends with Larry. This will not go unsettled. I do not believe MSFT will be able to consummate a deal without Ellison driving his yatch to Washington to unleash a barrage of attacks on the Redmond office.

Another software company to play close attention to is Netsuite, ticker. N. Ellison owns a piece and has mentioned an interest in acquiring this company in the past. If Ellison cannot get CRM, he might just roll up N and call it a day.

It just so happens that N is my 2nd largest position, putting yours truly in a position of dominance over you. I outperform all of you because I have a vast knowledge of the market, not seen since the days of Jay Gould.

This market will not stay down forever, ladies. A deal of this size will move markets higher. Wait for it or get ahead of it.

Black smoke and plumes of poisonous gases are making its way around Wall Street today, killing off hundreds of leveraged traders. Over 70 NASDAQS have been stolen from the national treasury and all appears to be lost.

Do not flee, lads. Let’s negotiate terms first (extra weak guy from Braveheart).

Exodus will lead the way, do not fret. Grab a chair and put it near your fire. Throw things into it to watch them burn. I always like to do that. It gives me a certain satisfaction to know that all things, even us, succumb to fire.

This wretched market, built upon the defunct mortgages of millions of disheveled Americans, will prevail. Some of you might view me as a caitiff, a person whose sole purpose on this planet is to profit, even at the expense of others. While all of that might be true, what you don’t realize is your ability to swim alongside me in the bloody waters, killing and maiming for fun and profit.

Biotech and tech are very weak. Strength can be found in basic materials and banks. The lower TLT goes; the higher my SBNY will rise. The medicine man shall rise again and seek out new highs. One must exhibit a modicum of patience when positioning into pinless biotech hand grenades.

Remember, as yields go higher, utilities become less attractive. Also, the dollar should weaken and commodities will rise. This all goes hand in hand, part of an old playbook. But it’s a dangerous game to play. I’d rather own the banks instead, profiting from the yield curve steepening.

Bottom line: I am not concerned with a one day drop. I will pay closer attention to this drop if we close near the lows. I will begin to worry should this tone carry into tomorrow. I invite you to be patient, eat a few sandwiches and wait for Exodus to do its magic. Quit being such a fucking zebra.

Futures are weak, and for the most part, Europe is trading lower. A great wind comes from the east and it will take all of your belongings away, leaving you naked in the street in a vast sequestered remoteness.

After all, with these gains in the general indices, up to the tune of 3% for the year, one mustn’t be greedy and wait for more. Could you imagine the SPY being up 4, 5 or maybe even 6% for the year? It would be the bubble of all bubbles that would destroy the very fabric of this low-brow society that we live in today. A place where the Met Gala stands for crass perversion, a denizen of whorish immorality, is a place that Le Fly doesn’t spit on when aflame.

You’ve had it good for a long time, six years running and gunning–padding your bank accounts and vaults with treasure. The time has come for a great reversal to the mean, a precipitous drop of moronic design.

Will I be selling?

Of course not. Le Fly welcomes hardship like a Vampire stumbling across a blood bank. Being up 20% for the year without heart pounding draw-downs feels unnatural to me. I want to feel the pangs of misery and indecision now, in order to fully appreciate the position that I am in. While many of you are sticks in the mud, ordinary readers from ordinary backgrounds, I still have faith in your mediocrity to wade through the storm that is about to come.

Or, the market might just erect a full middle finger, take out a 45 revolver, and shoot the last bear standing in the face.

Either scenario is perfectly acceptable with me.

I hope you faded the rally and bought bonds.

By the way, the best time, historically, to buy TLT is in August. The worst time to own it is now. This is getting pretty redundant but there are still some of you bears left. It is my job to hunt you down, capture you, then skin you alive until you learn your lesson. “The Fly” does this from the kindness of his blackened heart.

I hope you pussies enjoyed the nice seasonal weather, eh? You fuckers really seem to catch hard-ons for warmer climes, wasting away in a sea of beer. Perhaps if you’d spend 1/4th as much time focusing on productivity than cirrhosis of the liver, you’d be in a better position to make purchases? Then again, what the fuck do I know, some space alien magician who swam out from the sewers who now has fucking laser beams pointing at your dumb heads from outer space.

For the day, I made 0.94%–up 20% for the year.

You better pay attention to these fucking yield curves–because they’re steepening. TLT is getting the business and banks are going to mint coin on this move.

Very simply: there is an inverse relationship between the yield curve and equity performance in bank stocks. Now that yields are rising, and fast, expect your local money manager to awake from his slobbish slumber and get long super regionals.

I have two favorites: SBNY and BOFI, both high growth/quality super regionals.

I added to SBNY on this move here today.

I started a position in FRSH, not because I like pizza, but because YOU like pizza.

With global markets trending higher and US markets soaring to new highs, up almost a full 3 percentage points for the year; investors will be tempted to delve into a bit of wanton degeneracy. When walking about the drug den, perusing over the crack pipes and heroin needles, one is always tempted to take a flame torch or two to the pipe and take a puff, or perhaps stick a needle in one’s neck to enjoy a good morning opiate. “The Fly” is here to tell you “don’t do it.”

Say no to bad stocks, just like you’d say no to bad drugs.

The process goes likes this.

You’re making some money in good companies; but all of your stupid friends are making “fuck you money” in their faustian bargains. So you toss a bit of coin at these scandals and make some decent returns. Now the devil has got you by the nose, reeling you in like the guttersnipe that you are. You then toss all of you money into these bastard stocks, the market tumbles amidst homosexual greek tragedy, and your new job is chief rabbit skinner at your local haberdashery.

Do not give into your base and carnal instincts, you sub-mental morons. Your new found love for future accounting irregularities will be a one sided Wagnerian affair.

Stay the course, lads. Do not become the savage swine that your in-laws believe you to be. Moderate your excesses and avoid, at all times, becoming a craven bedlamite, whose sole purpose on earth is to vanquish his/her own net worth.

I know it feels like a lot more. But the truth of the matter is, the chinese dog eaters and the samurai in Japan have enjoyed 2015 (+23%, +16%) at the expense of western markets, sans France. The froggies are up nearly 12%, with the Nazis a close second at around +10%.

Many of my friends and colleagues alike are texting me right now, from greasy Italian eateries in crime ridden cities, declaring their fervent opposition to US markets. These people, these deluded wastrels, will lose all of their dollars, AND MORE, should they choose to act on these foolish notions.

The United States of America, in conjunction with Dr. Benjamin Bernanke, hailing from Citadels darkest corner office, will lay waste to all of you bearshitters, persons of gross disinterest who found in their black hearts to bet against greatness.

Betting against the S&P 500 here, barely up 3% on the year, is like trading Nolan Ryan before he went on to become one of the greatest pitchers of all time.

You fuckers are the NY Mets!

As you were.

Again, I am going with a Woody Allen movie that doesn’t star Woody Allen. Why am I doing this? For the most part Allen is a whiny bitch and annoys the hell out of me. Believe me, I appreciate plenty of his roles and will get into my favorite ones in the weeks ahead. But Woody’s true talent is in writing and directing, not acting.

This movie, Magic in the Moonlight, starring Collin Firth and Emma Stone, is a movie about deception and trying to unveil another’s trickery. The plot of the story is not what makes it fantastic, but the writing. I’ve seen this movie about 3 times and liked it so much I, regrettably, asked Mrs. Fly to watch it. Five minutes into it, she accused me of being the lead actor in the movie, proclaiming that the movie was actually a biopic on my life.

Granted, Colin Firth’s character is a bit of a curmudgeon cynic and he truly gives zero fucks, similar to me. But Le Fly is often jovial and definitely full of positive energy, fueled by the many barrels of coffee that I drink on a daily basis.

The movie is a must watch. Enjoy.