RALLY OR DIE

We’re so oversold, the very fabric of this market is being tested now. Bill Ackman’s insane hedge fund, as reported by his own website tonight, is down 11.4%, before today’s ass-kicking. Chinese stocks rose by 1.8% and the NIKKEI barely traded down 500. As a result, SPY futures are up 8.

Are you going to fall for this trick again?

European markets are being called lower. The divergence between large and small cap losses are narrow, which speaks volumes to the level of distribution we are seeing. It is indiscriminate and without bias. Both big and small investors are getting laid into by Mother Market, with her fiercest squall to start a new year…ever.

The market needs to rally now. We cannot wait until Monday or chalk up Thursdays as being too close to Fridays, therefore unable to rally.

The news doesn’t matter, only the emotional fever of the moment. Right now, the mood is wrought with panic. Once the bounce gets going, that panic will transform into unchecked greed and then you will have your rally. Hopefully you’ll still be alive to see the day.

8-27-34-4-19, PB 10

Thus far, just 7 out of the 21 companies that have reported earnings have exceeded the mean estimate. For the first time in well over a decade, the median price to sales ratio of the tech sector is trading at a discount to the overall market. Either sales are about to get hammered, or the tech sector is a ridiculous bargain down here. Judging by the after hours pin action in GPRO, I’d say the former is likely.

The Q4/2015 revenues growth results were not good.

Year to date, global equity losses have topped $3 trillion.

The oil and gas capital structure is a horror show, with over $300 billion in very distressed debt, and another $600 billion looming behind it.

All commodities are in a deflationary vortex, yet the Fed heads keep popping up on the teevee as if nothing happened.

How the fuck can the Fed still say 3-4 rate hikes are in the cards for 2016?

Japanese markets are being rocked, down 700 points, almost 4%. Aside from the ordinary boring nature of people hating stocks and selling them, the non-industrious robot lovers from Japan have provided people with a real catalyst to sell it down. Machinery orders for the month plunged by 14.4%, more than twice the forecast. Since this important data point is a forward looking indicator, one could only surmise that Abenomics has fallen flat on its big stupid face.

Related: Gold is up 0.5%. Oil is flat. And European futures are hammered down 2.3%. So far, U.S. futures response is muted, off by 0.3%.

On days like this, I always love to watch the closing bell on CNBC. Say what you want about the network, they are an integral part of our culture in finance, making Fox business look like a fucking clown shoe with bad actors and corny parlour tricks.

Stocks were rocked, again, to the tune of 365. The NASDAQ dropped by 3%, led by those fucking FANG stocks. There isn’t much to discuss, other than the aftermath of this decline. I’ll be posting some data regarding this decline tonight.

Look, I entered 2016 in 75% cash, and 25% TLT. As the market dropped, I legged into SPY. These oversold levels are pervasive and haven’t been seen in my lifetime. While the 2008-2009 declines were dreadful, there were respites. You’d see large drops and small blips higher. It was tradeable. This shit is black hole, give me your money so I can toss it into my flaming barrel of garbage, trading action.

Regarding my SPY position: it is now a leveraged one. However, I do have that TLT hedge and the factor of time limitations to mitigate my risk. Within a few trading days, I will begin the process of unwinding the position, win, lose or draw. If I should walk away from this debacle down 3-5%, I’d consider it a good start, all things considered. It’s a long year and there will be many opportunities to make it all back.

Stay tuned throughout the evening, as I am will sure to post a ton of content tonight, well into the Vampire hours of european market openings.

Once again, the man who marinates the finest ice cubes in NYC nailed it. Art posits the possible reasons for today’s drubbing, which is most likely due to margin call selling and fund liquidations. Also, he delves into the Fed and how they will regret raising rates–because they’re jackasses and the Yellen Fed is driving this economy right into the fucking wall.

Regarding fund liquidations: I know it sounds crazy that 8 days into the trading year there could be funds closing down. The crux of the issue is the severity of this decline. Although the NASDAQ is off by 10%, the average stock is down a lot more than that. Couple that with a rather arduous 2015 and the conditions for mass redemptions is present and highly probable.

No one wants to stop producing oil. The Saudis keep producing. The Bakken keeps producing. The fucking Iranians keep producing. And the vagrant vagabond U.S. stripper wells keep producing oil.

They wells will keep producing until the refuse of the excesses drown the owners in disgusting oily graves.

It’s utterly absurd how incompetent the oil men are, simply watching oil drop like this without cutting supply. The whole thing is like a cartoon, with one bad character trying to drop an anvil on the next. This is very reminiscent of the shipping industry and how bankrupt ships kept afloat, fueled by cheap money, laying waste to an ancient economy in the process.

One of the main questions being buzz-sawed throughout the media is the lack of news to couple with this fine crash we’re enduring. Why are we dropping?

We don’t need no stinkin’ news. FANG banger stocks are getting lit up. Retail and oil, already lit. It’s only a matter of margin call selling, coupled with hedge fund managers fleeing for the love of God’s grace now, to see this thing come tumbling down.

According to latest filings, Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square could be down anywhere from 10-16%. Einhorn’s positions might be even worse.

The point is, the pain is palpable. You can touch it, feel it, and get dismembered by it.

Who said crashes weren’t fun?

This morning we got a new Fed head, dubbed Kaplan, say he was biased towards jacking rates the fuck higher and was looking forward to normalizing them. Then we got some other loser from the Fed say the last hike went well, and was totally uneventful.

Oh really?

How is THE WORST START FOR A NEW YEAR IN THE HISTORY OF WALL ST not eventful?

Ever since then, its been a smooth ride lower, all day long. I’ve been busy listening to some of my favorite jazz music, 200% long SPY, pleasantly awaiting my executioner.

Here’s the thing Fed Kaplan and others: what you’re trying to prevent, a bubble, already happened. You’re just too blind or naive to see it. The oil and gas cabal has borrowed trillions over the past decade. Distressed oil and gas debt will amount to over $900 billion when it’s all said and done. By hiking rates into a cataclysmic drop in oil, you’re only making matters worse. You know, just like you did back in 2007 with the housing debacle? Yeah, you’re doing it again.

I could’ve sworn on a stack of bibles with korans on top of them that markets would’ve rallied today. Instead, we’re getting the Dark Ages, and they’re coming now.

Eight million gas build caused WTI to give up a 4% rally, which caused stocks to sell off…again.

This morning ITG issued a note of caution on NFLX, citing softness in the domestic market. Now the whole FANG complex is falling to pieces. Hedge fund managers are jumping out from windows, onto giant trampolines, then shooting themselves in the head, mid-air, while wearing bullet proof head gear.

The whole situation is a mess and very emotional.

As a group (brace yourselves), FANG is lower by 2% today and 6% for the year, aka 8 trading days.