iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,436 Blog Posts

Federal Reserve Policy Failure

Thus far, just 7 out of the 21 companies that have reported earnings have exceeded the mean estimate. For the first time in well over a decade, the median price to sales ratio of the tech sector is trading at a discount to the overall market. Either sales are about to get hammered, or the tech sector is a ridiculous bargain down here. Judging by the after hours pin action in GPRO, I’d say the former is likely.

tech

The Q4/2015 revenues growth results were not good.

Q42015

Year to date, global equity losses have topped $3 trillion.

The oil and gas capital structure is a horror show, with over $300 billion in very distressed debt, and another $600 billion looming behind it.

All commodities are in a deflationary vortex, yet the Fed heads keep popping up on the teevee as if nothing happened.

How the fuck can the Fed still say 3-4 rate hikes are in the cards for 2016?

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25 comments

  1. trashman

    That bitch needs to grow a beard asap

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  2. dyer440

    Heil Fly.. What can they do? On one hand they’ll be admitting the s&p price dictates policy = lose credibility. On the other hand, let capitalism prevail, leads to recession = lose credibility.

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    • dyer440

      Wth would YOU do?

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    • it is showtime

      america took a BiG step toward socialism or abatement and castration of capitalism when it desired the comfort of a controlled stock level. cant-have-it-both-ways
      [i still believe controlled-stocks were only a front in a predetermined gap of time]

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  3. dyer440

    Keep in mind, they have to tread carefully in front of an election!!

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    • Dr. Fly

      Dyer

      They cannot take the 25bps back, but they can easily send one of their morons out to say Fed hikes are OFF THE TABLE until normal market conditions persist.

      They’ve done this many times. The Fed likes to make believe the market doesn’t dictate policy; but it always has.

      The major difference here is the Fed only hiked so they could lower later. None of the data suggested they should raise. They could have done it last year, but not now under these circumstances. They should be focused on creating inflation, not deflation.

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      • dyer440

        I agree. Won’t surprise me if we get one of those Cramer goes crazy moments, then a FedHead comes out to ease fears.

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      • it is showtime

        Your M.O. assumptions are still too innately implanted. Just because their motivation seemed in line with what you thought it should be for healing an economy doesnt mean that motivation doesnt change (or as some of us think programmed to change at some point) their – actions – are – they – are – not – helping – the – market right now and thats that. done. over. get over it

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  4. frog

    “How the fuck can the Fed still say 3-4 rate hikes are in the cards for 2016?”

    Here are the multiple choice test answers to choose from:
    A) Gross incompentence
    B) The Fed thinks stocks are in a bubble and wants to pop said bubble.
    C) The folks at the Fed– or their friends and relatives– are short the market out the wazoo.
    D) The Fed knows something we don’t know e.g. they have inside info that indicates that this deflationary vortex is temporary and that commodities have bottomed, or will bottom some time later this year.

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  5. frog

    E) The Fed’s friends on Wall Street asked them to “reset” the market at a lower entry price, so they could sell it short, buy it back, and then buy it low and hold for some higher target price. Wall Street asked their Fed friends “Can you please find a way to drop the market really quickly, so I can make a ton of money on puts?”

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  6. gravestonedoji

    Milton Friedman believed the Fed was at the root of many economic evils…causing the Great Depression and the inflation of the late 1970s. He’s probably right. Another policy mistake here wouldn’t exactly be a shocker. They fucked up and kept rates too low for too long during the R/E bubble and then following the Great Recession it created. Now the shift gears into a shitty economy (which they probably believe is sound based on the phony data they kid themselves with).

    As we used to say in the Navy…Stand The Fuck By…

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    • toad37

      Fed pumps these bubbles then people cry when they remove the punch-bowl.

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    • joyous__ending

      >They fucked up and kept rates too low for too long during the R/E bubble and then following the Great Recession it created.

      Solid comment

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  7. skalliwag

    I don’t believe in conspiracies. And it does feel like they are trying to knock the slats out from under equities. Why else would they be doing all the jawboning

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    • frog

      I don’t think the world markets are going to collapse, and I don’t think the Fed wants them to. But it’s anybody’s guess as to how low a price the Fed wants to reset the markets at.

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      • margin call

        Define collapse. OA has a chart showing S&P 1600 on the downside if we break the current range, which we’re threatening to do. Is that a collapse or just a healthy pullback? I think most would see it as the former.

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      • it is showtime

        you’re forgetting the wealth effect. what they explained/admitted very recently was a primary aim. explaining/admitting at the same time it didnt work. So not only did it not work but falling equities and the continued deathly deterioration of formerly qe pumped commodities will feedback double negative in relation to the ‘wealth’ ‘effect’

        markets
        dont
        need
        to
        collapse
        to
        foment
        structural
        distress

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      • ironbird

        Showtime. Frog is worried about all the douche bag pet projects that progressive retards need to exist. A market collapse most likely would make frog homeless. Really. In a tent on the side of the fucking road style. Like any parasite they need a host. Seriously.

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  8. margin call

    It’s like Nero fiddling while Rome burned.

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  9. teslawasright

    Le Fly

    Have you not read William Cooper’s Behold a Pale Horse?

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  10. teslawasright

    #1 underground best seller

    Cooper was shot in the head

    Real good

    Explains economics as electrical circuits

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  11. joshua

    Correct a bit ( bunch) and add some juice. 15%-25% now, or 50% later? Mid 1500’s-1700’s probably the most bullish thing that could happen correction wise. Get plenty of bear juice on a move like that, because in their mind “this is the one” and it always is. Trading sideways until the end of time is not gonna help investors. Although, you’d likely clean house with exodus again in that type of market.

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