ARE YOU READY FOR A BLACKENED FRIDAY?

The intelligence algorithms are in fact very bullish now, a distinct change from recent memory.

I’m thinking about conducting a gambit of sorts, a high risk/high reward mix of shit stocks into Thanksgiving. I will not, however, risk into Blackened Friday and certainly not into cyber Monday. If we ebb lower tomorrow, I very well might initiate the Martingale Stratagem on a sundry of piece of shit stocks, all to be sold late Wednesday, completing the gambit with both style and grace, affording me comfort and dignity whilst filling my gullet with copious amounts of fresh foods and drink.

I cannot help but to mention how much trading 2022 feels like 2002, a year in which I was a young broker getting my brains blown out in a posh NYC boardroom each and every day. Every Friday the sales manager would cull the workforce by 2 or 3 lads, keeping is all on our toes. Today we have a sense of entitlement, all due to the bond market being nationalized in 2008. We have a sense, in spite of the losses, that in the end everything will be all right. In 2002, we had nothing but grim times ahead, up until the Bush tax cuts and Iraq war stoked risk and shot the market higher by 50% in 2003.

Here are the 2002 / 2022 parallels.

(QQQ returns by month 2002/2022)

Jan -1% / -8.75%
Feb -12.3% / -4.6%
March +6.7% / +4.6%
April -12% / -13.6%
May -5.3% / -1.6%
June -13% / -9%
July -8.6% / +12.5%
August -1.5% / -5.1%
Sept -11.8% / -10.7%
October +18.5% / +4%
November +12.9% / +2.5% (ongoing)
December -12.1%/ ?

FULL YEAR 2002: -31.5%
FULL YTD: -29%

If history is of any reference, we are due for a strong rally next week and a total an complete annihilation to cap off 2022 during December. If we are to travel down similar roads, by April of 2023 the market would have bottomed and we could be off to the races again.

Naturally, we all want to believe that things are different “this time” because we are alive during it. Truth is, human behavior is similar over all time frames. The old have always hated the youth and the youth have always made reckless decisions. Markets will, at some point, price in the very worst outlook and march higher in spite of bad news, as long as government policy is conducive with growth. With Cadaver Biden in office, we might not get that government boost in 2023 and might, perhaps, continue lower until the 2024 elections.

The single best week for stocks is next week, historically.

If you’re into tipping the scales in your favor when gambling, this is where you lever long. That’s exactly what I did, as I righted my ship the past two days — presently long at 125% into the oven to eat turkey. I don’t give a flying fuck if I’m wrong about the Turkey Gods. Given the odds, it’d pain me more to miss out on a sure fire win than to fall victim to a Black Swan event, whereby under such conditions, I’d have plenty of like minded longs to commiserate with.

Here is the bottom line:

I am long stocks with a beta LESS THAN 1 — because when I go swimming I like to swim with the fucking small fish and not the sharks who can bite my dick off.

Get used to bankruptcy filings and hell. The idea of BNPL stocks recovering and SHOP to $300 again is nothing more, or less, than fantasy. The new economy is the old one: old man stocks dusty from decades of dormancy. Stocks like TR and FLO are shining amidst the rubble, and yet, still, a large cadre of you continue to chase after growth stocks based off some notion that the Fed will stop twisting their knife into your guts.

The very fact remains, once the Fed removes their blade, you’ll bleed out and die.

It should be said, and it will be said here, if you continue to play in traffic, at some point, you will be flattened out and killed. Get on the sidewalk and wait for the red light to change.

+80bps for the session, long secular stocks.

The biggest mistakes I made during the dot com implosion (the last time I was wrong on a market) was believing the decline was merely “a dip” in 2000. I didn’t sell and I rode stuff all the way the fuck down to zero. On top of that, each and every time I had new money, I bought more of the same “cheap stocks” based upon the fact the stocks were down — nothing really materially great about said stocks. We have a similar situation today, where stocks are “cheap” but not really since the economy is worsening and looks to be getting grimmer by the day.

After 9/11, I all but gave up on the idea that I could ever make money in tech stocks, so I switched tactics and became a bond man, regional bank buyers, and general consumer of stocks of a defensive nature. Bear in mind, that bear market lasted for 9 months of 2000, 12 months of 2001, 12 months of 2002, and 3 months of 2003 before we truly bottomed. Along the way were insane rallies, such as the +22% lift in the SMH in November of 2002. I actually remember that month and I also remember the disappointment on the faces of the bulls when it was shattered to bits and pieces in December of 2002 for -24%.

Here is my advice and listen to me very carefully:

STOP BUYING STOCKS BECAUSE THEY’RE DOWN. Now is the time to care about fundamentals. If you’re too stupid to read a balance sheet, Stocklabs does it for you with our fundamentals ranking system. Or, you can just trust in the efficient market theory and buy the 52 week high list. There are people out there who are professionals and do this for a living. If a large capped stock is within 3% of a 52 week high, there’s a reason for that.

WHEN TO GET BACK INTO THE META’S of the world?

You’ll have plenty of time to scam your way back into shit stocks — because it’ll be obvious. The bottom of 2003 was obvious, as was the bottom of 2009,2012, 2014, 2015, and 2020. There will be a policy change and you’ll hear a bunch of bullish statements and you’ll miss out on the first moves up — but rest assured once this turns higher into a bull tape — there will be plenty of upside to both savor and enjoy.

It saddens me to report this, but I am very net long overnight. But I did so in a manner on par with being a gentleman, via an array of conservative dividend paying “old man” stocks. My largest risk is BIDU and I have a 15% SQQQ position to hedge. I closed the session with a win, +115bps, and 136% leveraged — because I have fucking ground to make up man.

The intelligence backtest algorithms inside Stocklabs is predicting a solid tomorrow — but extreme doom after that.

We had numerous chances to collapse today and did not. Because of this, I bought the 52 week high list and left the tech shit down 80% for the year for some of you assholes out there to dive into. You do know, mind you, you’re diving into a concrete pool without water?

BOTTOM LINE: I am bullish via my brain but my heart pines for extreme downside action, the type of action you might expect dressed to the nines with a glass of, say, CHARDONNAY in your hand brimming with Latour and all of a sudden the fucking cable snaps and it crashes lower — flattening you into the ceiling of the death trap.

Enjoy your evening.

Every dip is bought. Each morning collapse is met with foaming from the mouth bulls who just sop up any bargains out there. I was not fooled today, not even once, and now sit with gains of +120bps, increasing the girth of my manhood since the opening tick. I cannot, however, promise you this elegance will last thru 4pm, as markets tends to shatter to pieces into the close. Lord knows what can happen overnight.

It seems, and this is just me speculating, people like stocks when fast approaching National Festival. After that, we have an even bigger holiday: BLACKENED FRIDAY. This is the day when Americans WHORE THEMSELVES like slave-cattle outside Best Buy and barge in with their fat faces for 15% discounts off televisions and toasters.

At the moment I haven’t any hedges. WTI is down a staggering 4% and yet oil stocks are being bid here. I cannot tell you how much it pains me to see oil down and stocks up. But it is what it is.

More later.

Good day to you.

Since I blogged last my fortunes have turned for the better. Just yesterday I was mired in a terrible slump — deeply concerned about an overweight SOXS position which relied upon NVDA’s earnings announcement. At the close of AHs trading last night, said position was down 3%. This morning I was entreated to a wonderful surprise: markets had collapsed and my SOXS position rocketed higher. I quickly took profits and then took the other side of that trade long SOXL and booked a profit there too.

At the present, I am around 10bps away from session highs +95bps, thanks in large part of smart trading and positioning in old man risk averse stocks.

There is always a risk, however, that I squander this rally of sorts through future boneheaded moves. Speaking out loud here, it’s important that I end my bad losing streak by simply chalking up a win in order to make myself feeeeeeeeel better, which will help towards my confidence and ability to assess risk thru the right lens.

If I somehow fuck this up today, I might never recover.

Markets look ok, even though the NASDAQ is -100. We have an especially strong tape in Chinese stocks and the oils are attempting to bid higher. But there are many risks to the bull argument and it’s important not to be tricked or fooled — because before you know it — we’re down 500 NASDAQs and life as we know it blackens with soot and we choke to death from the toxic elements of an unforgiving bear market.

It’s clear to me that I am under surveillance from powerful figures who take the other side of my trade in order to rack me with losses. I cannot clearly explain what happened to me today, completely raped from the opening tick forward. I was briefly teased with a small semblance of winship, only to quickly be discarded like a molded piece of cheese — shutting the fuck lower at -169bps for the session.

It was all so whimsical and also imbued with magic. I had this great big UVIX position after successfully trading out of SOXS and then out of nowhere, with the market going lower, IT COLLAPSED. I was forced out for a 1.8% loss and it bottomed there. So I got back into SOXS, which was leading due to the MU news. What happened next was so surreal, I was frozen with amazement. It GAPPED THE FUCK LOWER TOO, based off a small blip in the market, providing me with 3-5x the losses I would have endured if in LABD or SQQQ.

I’ve dipped to a level not seen since September.

What makes matters inexorably worse is that everything I said would happen did. I called for a big gay rally in the markets led by SMH and I failed to take my own advice — based off some notion that cogent thinking Fly is somewhat worse than “in the trenches” moron hopped up on 10 cups of double espressos and bacon snacks.

I’d like to predict this being my bottom, as it has been for a period of 6 months or so. But I can’t get a handle on this tape, long or short, and probably should just call it a year and fuck off until 2023.

But you know I can’t do that — because that would make sense. I’ll shoot out the gates again tomorrow with $200,000 triple lotus ETF guillotine trades again, scalping for 1% in a flaccid effort to make 30bps in a tape spawned from Satan himself. To be honest, I hope the whole fucking thing blows up already, taking me with it. I’ll get a job at Target and tell people to fuck themselves when they ask me for help. I’ve been torturing myself trading stocks since I was 10. I’m 46 now and I have no idea why I liked stocks at 10, coming from the sewers of Brooklyn, being chased around my apartment by mice and waterbugs, hiding under the covers because the waterbugs also had wings and would fly about the house.

NEVERTHELESS, I remain the clown and will head out there tomorrow and give it the old college effort.

What sort of depraved animal buys stocks based upon some absurd notion the Fed will stop hiking rates? BUDDY: the damage has already been done. We are in the midst of an economic collapse and the market isn’t pricing that in yet.

Today we had a TGT miss and MU supply cut. See how the market is treating both of those stocks? Why aren’t the PIVOTOOORS buying them? They’re not buying them because the economic realities outweigh the sugar high of less poison to the economy.

I am deeply embedded in the belief of lower prices. It is the market’s destiny to COLLAPSE amidst bankruptcy filings and pestilence.

Remember, the Fed can only pivot once. They’re likely to do so in December and then all eyes will be fixed on the economy and the earnings reports.

Are you feeling lucky about earnings, punk?