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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Futures Rip Higher, Crypto Currencies Higher — Law and Order Restored

It was a very dire two days — but it’s over now and the market is about to break necks to the upside again. Dow futures are +75, Nasdaq +21. Gold, oil, and copper are all up and crypto currencies are in rally mode.

Over at Binance, one of my storage plays ELF is the biggest gainer on the exchange. I expect volatility will collapse, paving the way for magnificent gains in my XIV position.

On our 6 month algo in Exodus, an oversold signal registered today. This isn’t our principle algo and trades are not often decided by it — but it’s worth noting its track record is flawless, as far as inflection points are concerned.

This is exactly what the system was built for, highly precise mathematical mean reversion AI — proving users with an unseemly edge in the markets.

The NIKKEI is up more than 300, China, and Hong Kong higher. FB crushed earnings, which will buoy my quant portfolio, which is scheduled to be updated tomorrow. Life, as we presently understand it, is good.

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Come See the Bitconnect Guy — Because It’s Funny Since Bitconnect is Now in Shambles

I discussed the Ponzi scheme that is Bitconnect a few week ago. Read it here.

See the chart, $450 to drill bits.

Enter Carlos, the Bitconnect guy. He did this video when things were good. Bitconnect was ripping to record higher and Carlos was the shit.

And now see Carlos’ haunted Bitconnect mine.

There are scores of videos out there like this. Feel free to contribute to this epic moment in crypto currency history.

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They Tried to Shake You Out Today

Markets played themselves today, gapping higher, then lower, then higher again. This is the sordid brand of churn that kills portfolios — makes people think all is lost. Don’t let the nihilism take hold of you and try to remember that as grim and dire as things seem to be, as the horrible horribles pile up and the losses accumulate, America is becoming great again and jobs are being created on a daily basis. Taxes are being cut, and Fox News ratings…through the roof.

A great Orange Gorilla presides over you, helping you become a better person — richer, better looking, with Jedi-like powers.

I sold out of my RAS position for a 30% win, while losing my balls in MYSZ — thanks to an impromptu secondary offering. Moreover, I made a slew of gains in gold stocks, and held tight with my XIV position — up 6 from my basis.

Listen to me. Nothing has changed but the date on the calendar. Janet “fucker” Yellen is gone, corporate earnings are being guided the fuck up, and rates are still incredibly low.

Calm the fuck down and stop shitting yourselves.

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If You’re Sitting There Worrying About Rates, You Might Be Autistic

Nothing says panic like historically low interest rates. To think that people are being subjected to 30yr mortgage rates of 4.40% is somewhat harrowing. Could you imagine being on the receiving end of such a con?

Here is a 10yr chart of the 10yr treasury. Clearly you can see there is nothing unusual about the yield. Sure, it’s going up a bit. But, what the fuck did you expect with the Fed hiking rates? Did you think rates would stay at 2% forever?

How about the spreads? What of the spreads? The 2-10 spread is 60bps. This isn’t a very large spread, but it isn’t small or flat, or fucking inverted — so relax.

What of the banks? Well, what about them? If there is a sector that would be panicked by rates that were too high, it would be the banks.

Thus far, they’ve done splendidly. JPM is +8.8%, BAC +9.2%, and WFC +8.4% — all beating the S&P 500.

Find something else to worry about.

FYI: I sold RAS, +30%.

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This Rally is Weak — But That’s All Right

Everyone was expecting a 1,000 point rally after the SOTU, not because the President’s speech was fantastic, but because you’re all a bunch of spoiled faggots. This is exactly the type of tape you want, one that fucks with the mind — gives bears a false sense of security, and then BAM: off with their heads.

At the vanguard of today’s bounce is tech and gold. Can you have a more fucked up blend of leadership? I think not. Let them keep looking at bonds, getting scared of 4.40% 30 yr mortgages, placing hazardous bets against equities. At the end of the day, we will walk away with their heads in a duffle bag.

This being the last day of month 1 Exodus Quant portfolio, I’ll tell you what I own. The stocks aren’t anything special — just what the system said was worthwhile — following the money — and it was correct.

FB, AAPL, MSFT, V, XOM, and GLD.

The net result was ~5.5%, in line with the SPY, an annualized rate of return of 66%. Fucking nuts.

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Morning Poppers (Dead Cat Bounce Edition)

It looks like we’ll get some green early going. Dow futures are +90 and XIV is printing $127 in the pre market. Crude is off again, down 0.65% — but copper and gold are slightly higher. Over in nerdville, Bitcoin is at $10,300 and Ethereum is $1,100 — both weak, but plodding along.

I don’t have much conviction, other than to suggest even dead cat’s bounce when tossed off high perches — so maybe we’ll get a little reprieve from the dastard plundering. This being the last day of the month, I will be posting my returns for my quantitative portfolio and making adjustments tomorrow morning, as I am scheduled to do so once per month for all of 2018.

Here’s what’s hitting the wires now.

Automatic Data beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides FY18 EPS above consensus, increases lower bound of rev guidance
Tupperware beats by $0.09, misses on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus; guides FY18 EPS in-line
Silicon Labs beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs above consensus
Overstock.com announces the launch of a digitally-driven investment platform (otherwise known as robo-advising)
NASDAQ beats by $0.05, beats on revs
Illumina upgraded to Overweight at First Analysis Sec post earnings; tgt $277
U.S. Bancorp downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan
DPW Holdings subsidiary, Super Crypto Mining to launch cloud mining
McDonald’s target raised to $190 from $180 at Telsey Advisory Group

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Futures Climb on Renewed Rhetoric, Post State of the Union

I really tried to get back into MAGA mode for this speech, attempting to conjure up some latent nationalism that was running hot during the 2016 elections. Sadly, I failed.

All throughout the speech, I kept saying to my wife ‘wouldn’t it be great if the whole place blew up?’ I could see the flames rummaging throughout the chamber, cleaning out the room of all the miserable people harrowing the country. But then I got to think about some of the innocents in there and the devils who’d likely fill the power void and felt a great shame for thinking such horrible things.

I know the answer to the issues facing our country and this is it: fuck them.

It’s best to simply ignore the nonsense, position for personal success, make a fuck load of money, drink and spend ruinously until we’re buried 6 feet deep.

Futures are spiking tonight, +85 on the Dow and +28 Nasdaqs. WTI is lower by 0.9%. This is a tepid response post -400 decline. However, we can build from here and hopefully crucify the people who dare stand in our way.

The true story tonight isn’t the shit-filled, canned SOTU speech, but instead the fucking fuckery taking place in the crypto currencies.

Earlier this morning the SEC announced it had seized the assets of a company scheming to launch the largest ICO in history. Tonight the ramifications of regulatory action is hurting the 5 year olds who trade in and out of these idiotic instruments. To that end, I will continue to buy this asset class each and every month for a year, not because they’re fundamentally sound, but because I am interested to see how it goes.

In short, futures are mildly higher. Trump is autistic. The democrats can go fuck themselves, and everyone else in that chamber this evening.

See you in the morning.

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Markets Will Be Painted Orange Tonight — Time to Get In

I am +5 on my XIV purchase from this morning. I am expecting the Orange Gorilla will pull a junta tonight, arresting members of congress on live teevee as he reads the newly disclosed memo.

Rumor has it, Trump will not release the contents of his State of the Union speech tonight, instead opting for a pleasant and raping surprise. This would be the first time in 55 years a President has pulled such a stunt. I know you grow weary of change, but sometimes it’s interesting, as well as funny.

I have all of the confidence in the world that today’s misery will lead to tomorrow’s ebullience. As such, I am riding into the close long equities, positioned keenly on XIV — eagerly awaiting The Orange God to smite his enemies and paint DC red.

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The Moment of Truth Beckons — Stocks Plunder Lower — Moron Advisors Beat the Fuck Down

What’s amusing about all of this is the sell off is also affecting crypto currencies. Bitcoin and the gang are fucking knifing (Qaaa-nifing) lower.

BTC is on the verge of full collapse under $10,000 and there is nothing that you or your stupid friends can do about it. While many of you might surmise this to be something of an albatross for yours truly, especially since I’ve been delving into the black arts of SHITCOIN trading. Truth is, I have deployed a Martingale Stratagem and benefit, explicitly, from the terminable collapse of the asset class. When it trades lower, I simply buy more — rinse and repeat, furthermore.

We want stocks lower. We want them to hurt, break the bones of weak minded financial advisors. We are living during a time and a place when advisors with IQs less than 50 are managing hundreds of millions. Their sociopathic tendencies, coupled with the evergreen qualities of the market, have provided them with a comfortable living. We will strip them of this luxury and cast them out into the cold (extra Bane). When all of the accoutrements of decorum have been annihilated from the market, then and only then will the field be cleaned of their indecorous calamity.

Stocks are comfortably in the red, off by a solid 350 and staging for another leg lower. In spite of all of this, my purchase of XIV is solidly in the black — as it was timed with both grace and alacrity. The State of the Union is upon you gentlemen. Your SHITCOINS have been disbanded and discarded. Your Nasdaqiris have been drunk, glasses shattered across the pavement.

My quantitative methods are due for update tomorrow. The +5.2% showing it accomplished in January is as impressive as it is excessive. We can only hope for lower prices, lads. Let us pray.

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