Here’s the Most Precise Market Analysis to Describe this Tape — In Just One Chart

This is all you need to know.

The market is a collection of morons trading against one another in a never-ending whir of emotion.

I spent the day embedded in the natural degeneracy that is NYC. Amidst the smell of homeless man bum and Chanel stores, Le Fly found respite in a wide varietal of fatty foods. I’ve been eating like an absolute savage since getting off from my vegan exploits. The way I see it, I’ll be living in the gym soon and I might as well get it out of my system, especially since I’ve been injuring myself and serving penance on the altar of asinine dietary plans.

Let it be known, “The Fly is drinking more than ever — mostly, gin — eating gigantic steaks, eschewing the faggotry world of politics like the plague, and winning like an olympic gold medalist in these here markets.

On Friday, my trading account closed flat. Today, it traded down 0.25%, all the while the lot of you were beaten with shovel, racked and ruined, for at least 2%.

BEHOLD.

I step into tomorrow’s tape a proper man, one without heavy losses and instead in a great position to fleece you of your margin liquidations.

Good nite.

Of all days to crash the market. “The Fly” is out sauntering about NYC, enjoying the climate and the food — all the while wild roaming beasts crush the skulls of our robotic overlords.

I only have LABD, NUGT and lots of cash to hedge. I haven’t checked my quotes to see if I’m surviving the melee.

Is gold offering save harbor? Will Le Fly live to saunter in Paris this summer?

Please fill me in in the comments section, as I am no longer able continue this communication.

You might be getting motion sickness by now. The up and down jerking of the market is enough to make one sick. Futures are +150 and the Nasdaq is heading for a +50 open. There is a lot of good news this morning, none as big as Bitcoin breaking higher again. It seems, and correct me if I’m reading this wrong, but the cryptos are signaling risk appetite is back. A fresh crop of newly minted SHITCOIN investors are about to buy some lambos. This move has been building slowly — but here we are BTC $9,300 and ETH encroaching on $700 again.

My portfolio of cryptos is +50% over the past two weeks and I’m looking to again add to it — seeing that the HODLers are back and all. However, firstly, we need to bank some coin in the proxies, while of course avoiding the typical hazards of investing in horribly operated companies. First and foremost, get long OSTK and enjoy the ride.

Gold, oil and copper all higher, the latter up 1.7% — which is boolish for China stocks.

I’m taking a personal day off today, which will be spent in NYC for my daughter’s birthday. If you see me sauntering around NYC, you may not approach me or ask for autographs. However, if you should notice that I am instead traversing or even idling you may come say hello. I want you to pay attention to the distinction, for the former can get you killed.

Also, Amazon is now delivering packages to the trunk of your car.

Unlocking delivery possibilities: With Amazon Key, millions of Prime members can now have packages delivered inside their cars at no extra cost. https://t.co/HOtOpl9Etv pic.twitter.com/Sxg4Fdcf6F

— Amazon News (@amazonnews) April 24, 2018

Here are some other headlines moving markets this morning.

You’ve been told that the west enjoys freedom. But what if I told you we’ve never had less freedom — in the history of man. Would you believe me? The information is right in front of your faces. We’re all just one small infraction away from prison. Your data is being parsed like never before and you’re targeted for crimes that are patently ridiculous.

Look at this ‘crime’ that was committed in the UK — which earned an old man 8 months in prison. He stuck his middle finger up at a camera.

Top tip: If you want to stay out of trouble, don't do what this driver did and swear at our mobile safety cameras while driving past in a car fitted with a laser jammer. Today he's beginning 8 months in jail for perverting the course of justice. https://t.co/Y5jpeOlt96 pic.twitter.com/rKQRVgNkB1

— North Yorkshire Police (@NYorksPolice) April 23, 2018

The North Yorkshire police department are so accustomed to tyranny they boasted about this on their Twitter account — warning others to avoid said crime.

Police were unable to ascertain his speed but charged him with perverting the course of justice, which he pleaded guilty to at court.

The judge who jailed Hill said such actions “strike at the heart” of the justice system and his sentence must act as a deterrent to others.

Traffic Constable Andrew Forth, who led the investigation for North Yorkshire Police, said afterward: “If you want to attract our attention, repeatedly gesturing at police camera vans with your middle finger while you’re driving a distinctive car fitted with a laser jammer is an excellent way to do it.

“It’s also an excellent way to end up in prison. As Hill’s case shows, perverting the course of justice is a very serious charge which carries a custodial sentence.

“It’s our job to keep road users safe across all 6,000 miles of North Yorkshire’s roads. Mobile safety camera vans are an important tool to do that – they are proven to reduce collisions and they help save lives.

How dare he!

And here's the video of him in action… pic.twitter.com/8SuvQGbAqb

— North Yorkshire Police (@NYorksPolice) April 23, 2018

They’re watching your browser history, your GPS location, listening to your phone conversations, picking up on keywords, investigating your banking transactions, making sure you’re behaving online: humans have never been less free — ever.

In other news, it may be time to discard your common stock portfolios for cryptos again. The sector is red hot and I’m firing up my Binance account again — hoping to get in on the next wave.

Total market cap is now $412m, still -50% from the highs.

Last year Gundlach told everyone at the Sohn conference to go long emerging markets, short SPY. I could deal with that rec and accept it, even from a disgusting, filthy, bond guy — such as himself. But this year he’s gone too far.

At the Sohn conference this afternoon he told people to short Facebook and to get long oil stocks.

The details are as you would expect — Facebook is a public relations nightmare, an evil corporation spawned on earth to spy on and control the populous. I love how FUCKED FACES like Gundlach are just learning about this now in 2018. We all knew Facebook was doing this and those of us who were keen to their schemes avoided the platform altogether.

All of the socials are honey pots to fetter out dissidents.

As for the oil trade, I imagine he believes bond yields are heading higher because so is inflation. Higher CPI usually means higher commodity prices. Again, only a fucking retarded chimp goes on stage and says these things to a group of top hatted gentlemen.

I follow a strict code of conduct when eating at niche restaurants and I think it applies here.

Never order a steak in a seafood house.

Never order the fish in a steakhouse.

And here, don’t take stock advice from a bond salesman, especially when he’s shilling for adoration in a crowd filled with bumbling, sycophantic, idiots.

Listen to me. I am tired and need to go take a nap. The market isn’t going to hurt me. No idea what it has in store for you — but I’m sure it’s not good.

I bought some VERI and a hedged a little with LABD — betting against science. I’ve never been a ‘fan’ of science and instead prefer ritualistic spells and magic. I once cured my broken arm with a simple pagan spell, which included a rather easy blood sacrifice to the gods.

I am short MUH medicine.

The VERI trade is pure alpha, so that trade might very well go sideways and out on me. I angled into that thing at about 33 degrees, hoping to come out at 90 — but I might have to a 180 and flip out of that fucker — should the waters get rough.

Off to nap for a few.

Ciao

This post will keep you honest — highlight the fact that you quite literally haven’t the slightest clue of what you’re doing. You manage money for others — but behave like infants in a sandbox — tossing sand around like animals covering their feces. You, Sir, are a vagrant mountebank.

Good morning.

Basic Materials
Silver +11%
Consumer Goods
Personal Products +8%
Financials
Investment Brokerage, National +6.7%
Healthcare
Home Healthcare +24%
Services
Education and Training +11.7%
Technology
Security Software and Services +22%
Utilities
Foreign Utilities +12%

If you want more details, you misers will just have to sign up for Exodus.

Nasdaq futures are +30 and despite the recent volatility in the market — I am getting bored of the monotony. Up, down, up, and then down — with the same verve, but going, inexorably, nowhere.

The rhetoric is the same and the people spewing it are predictably lame. CNBC is more worthless than ever — posting nonsense like this on their site.

CNBC is now an utterly worthless resource for finance news. Note: the Reagan years produced a cumulative return of +208% and resurgence of America's dominance on a global scale. pic.twitter.com/BfL6jcdq02

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) April 23, 2018

And I am completely bored with politics and don’t think I’ll ever talk about it again here. I might discuss geopolitical events — but the left v right stuff is fucking lame and you won’t get much of that from me anymore.

Early going, both gold and oil are lower — and Bitcoin cash is through the roof, +25%. I’ve been making some of my losses back in my SHITCOIN portfolio. I’ve completely forgotten about the thing, since the blow out. Last year this time, I vividly recall discussing Bitcoin at this derby party I visit every year and the price shot up from that point and never looked back. I suspect people think the price is heading up now because tax season is over — but that’s stupid and also jelly-brained dumb.

Aluminum is getting hammered this morning, off by 6%, due to US sanctions on Russia’s Rusal.

U.S. MAY RELIEVE RUSAL SANCTIONS IF DERIPASKA DIVESTS CONTROL: BBG

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 23, 2018

#Aluminium takes a nosedive after US offers Rusal a way out without Deripaska.. pic.twitter.com/NOfEtEgigN

— Oliver Nugent (@OliverNugent) April 23, 2018

Oleg Deripaska is a Russian oligarch, President of Rusal.

This from Reuters today, stirring the pot in Siberia.

“The entire life of this city depends on Rusal,” said Evgeny Ivanov, until recently a foreman at the plant in Sayanogorsk, where pockmarked asphalt recalls the harsh winters endured by its 60,000 inhabitants, and icy blue mountains line the horizon.

“If something were to happen to the factory, in my opinion the town would die out. There would be nothing left for people to do here,” he said in one of the town’s few cafes, explaining that the private firm he now works at also depends on the plant.

“There are lots of people here who are unhappy with the government, and with Putin too. If the plant starts cutting staff, people will revolt,” he said, declining to be named for fear of losing his job.

“If people are fired, what will they do in this town? … They’re not going to sell sunflower seeds, are they?” a worker responsible for repairing smelting pots said.

Globalism is shitty, except for the fact that it interconnects nations and gives them an incentive to keep the peace. If we didn’t have strong trade relations with China or Mexico, I’m pretty sure we’d attack them by now. This row with Russia will likely be resolved by using economic leverage against them. The only reason why we have said leverage is because of globalism — which is both a peacemaker and scourge of our day.

Yield fags need to be stopped, once and for all. I don’t know about you, but I am sick and tired of these people shitting on my parade — bringing their problem to the table and crying about it like little bitches. If you’re employed on a fixed income desk, listen to me now: go fuck yourself.

As the 10yr treasury approaches 3%, the first time since the Taper Tantrum crisis of 2013, bond nerds are out in full force proclaiming it to be the end of the bull market. Last time yields cocksized up against the 3% mark, stocks fucking raged higher with retard strength. Hell, 2013 was the best year of all time. We made so much money in stocks that year, Le Fly was lighting cigars with bank notes.

Here’s the top story on CNBC now, warning people of dark times because MUH 3% was going to convince people to ditch their stocks in favor of fucking bonds.

“I think there’s still a lot to go,” the firm’s chief investment officer said Thursday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.” “[The] 10-Year Treasury yield has been below fair value for nearly ten years thanks in large part to central bank bond purchasing that’s been going on.”

His thoughts came as the 10-Year yield, which moves inversely to debt prices, made another run to 3 percent. On Friday, the benchmark rate hit its highest level in more than 4 years.

“If you take a look long-term, where the 10-Year Treasury typically trades, it matches nominal [economic growth],” Ablin said. “And, the last nominal [growth] number we got in December of last year suggested that the 10-Year Treasury should be about 4.1 [percent] not 2.9,” he added.

Stocks historically become less attractive as yields move higher. In the easy money environment since the financial crisis, low yields created great demand for stocks.

“The fact is that the bond market has been in this tug-o-war for capital for the last ten years with one arm tied behind its back,” Ablin said. “The equity market has essentially been the only child of that relationship.”

With the Federal Reserve normalizing its interest rate policy and the European Central Bank hinting it’ll soon do the same thing, Ablin expects Treasuries to become more attractive.

“We see the 2-Year [Treasury] now nearly at more than 2.4 percent. So, yields are starting to get more attractive on the front end where the Federal Reserve has its influence,” he noted. Shorter-dated yields surged to its highest level since September 2008. In the past year, the yield has surged more than 100 percent.

Ablin, who’s bullish on the 2-Year, said that not even a “fantastic” earnings season will prevent the stock market troubles likely coming down the pike.

“The fact is the European Central Bank has already said they’re likely to end their program in September. So, I think the bond market is starting to sense that, and that’s why we’re seeing rates rise there,” Ablin said.

Now for the facts, via WSJ circa 2013.

Since 1967, during periods when bond yields have risen while confidence has increased (i.e., a “good” yield rise) average annualized stock price returns have been almost 13% and despite rising bond yields, the stock market has only declined about one-third of the time. For comparison, when yields have risen and confidence has declined, the stock market has declined nearly one-half the time and with an average annualized price return of -6.4%.

In short, yields rise when the economy is doing well. When the economy does well, earnings are increasing, which eventually results in higher stock prices. Ignore the bonds geeks and embrace the idea that inflation might be something worth having — as long as it’s under 3%.