Did We Top In August?

If you sold the $IWM in February and never looked back, that was the high water mark for 2023. Everyone has been TRANSFIXED by $NVDA and the mega capped weighted NASDAQ — but the real essence of stocks lies in the Russell 2000. If you would take out your monocles and peer at the graph below — you’d see we touched those Feb highs again in late July-early August and have since descended into hell once more.

Some might argue we are ebbing here and sky is the limit — similar to when the $IWM languished in May, marooned in mediocrity whilst $META surged ahead — as they viciously combatted fake news and other important matters for the state.

But we have no way of knowing if this is the bottom and must assume the current trend will prevail into November and beyond — perhaps forever. For all we know, this might be the top of tops — markets may never achieve these levels again and we’ll soon swing lower into an apocalyptic doom — featured with but not limited to LOOTERS cascading into Target clad in Palestinian flags removing inventory from the storage facilities, loading them into their tractor trailers for redistribution amongst the Amazon shopper class.

There is but one vestige of true American nationalism left and that’s amongst southern whites, who mostly manifest themselves to be the God fearing patriots intent on keeping America safe and free. In the coming years I suspect these dangerous ideas will be rooted out and freshly minted migrants dispatched to replace them, or at least marginalize the sons of NB Forrest and Robert E. Lee.

The Fly Wins Again

People often ask “Fly, how do you manage to win so readily?”

The straightforward response is rooted in genetic code. Generously, I entertain people clamoring for a glimmer of hope, those wanting to extricate themselves from the din of mediocrity.

I tell them “it all started when I was a boy, playing in the rubble of Brooklyn with dreams of becoming a great success. I took to the stock market early, right about the time markets crashed in 1987. Since then I worked tirelessly at my craft, much like a scientist in a lab — concocting tonics and potions using flasks and beakers and burettes. I’ve failed more often than most and out of that crucible have established a rich patrician expectation of excellence for those who know me well. I am rarely wrong for periods of time in excess of 2 or 3 months and haven’t lost money in the market since 2014. If you want to achieve outsized results, you can either spend the next 10,000 hours in the stock laboratory like I did, or simply attach yourself to me — much like a barnacle does to a great white shark.”

In late 2021, after launching my data analytics software called Stocklabs — I created a portfolio for members to track. That account was seeded with just $100k and is now valued at $1.1m, all through hard work, grit, and an exceptional talent for profit.

I tell you this, not to sell memberships or convince you that I am much better than you — but to inform you, rather emphatically, to fuck off in the comments section with quibbles about things you feel on a daily basis. The Fly isn’t interested in your opinions, just your attention.

For the session, I closed +60bps, carefully allocated with just the right amount of shorts and longs, methodically calibrated to produce a portfolio beta that will lead to success on Monday. We understand the risks in the tape: soaring oil, panic into gold, flight from risk, spike in volatility — massive increase in put volume as the permanent bull class of investor become initiated in the age longed tradition of getting beaten senseless during the month of October.

Nevertheless, and it’s important you remember this, nothing is fixed and the best trades are often born in the fires of discord and acrimony.

Be prepared for a flush lower and subsequent rally soon.

It will chagrin a great many of you to learn that I have achieved success today, in the face of unspeakable horrors in the markets. We had a lift in the morning and soon plunged lower — as oil shot to the moon based off war and rumors of war.

I had a very large hedge in TZA and I kept said hedge, but sold my stocks — making me a bear once again. My gains stand at a comfortable 77bps, with even greater returns in my Quant +115bps, thanks to its heavy allocation in oils.

I told you I’d win, no matter the case. Now, I only have TZA at 10% of my portfolio and nothing else, watching the market clumsily top over and heave into the earth — taking all of the sinners down with it. In the end, people get what they deserve. Natural order will sort it out and after it’s all said and done — a new age of prosperity and legality will reign the earth for 3 generations — and then we will once again plunge into chaos — maiming and killing one another in the name of honor, glory, and duty.

ANNOUNCEMENT: I’m Coming Out as Trans-Bull

I had an interesting day and I’d like for you to come upon my journey, describing to you in detail how I felt and why I did certain things considered by some to be sacrilege.

I had a wide array of plans entering before markets opened and none of them panned out. I was heavily short and angry at the market — because it wasn’t listening to me. As I am the most important person that I know, I took great offense to this and let my feelings be known all of the internet.

Early going the market shattered me into thousands of pieces — due to an odd divergence between small and large capped stocks. I was short the NASDAQ, which was up, and not short the small caps — which were down dramatically. Additionally, I had a massive position in the VIX, which for whatever reason refused to trade up. Again, I took personal offense to this and penned a blog about how I was so important the creators of the heavens and earth took time out of their busy schedules to target me directly, my trades specifically.

Late in the afternoon, I had obstinately held my shorts, consisting of but limited to 43% of my overall portfolio — valued at $1.1 million. I usually never partake in positions larger than 5%, so this was a blood feud for me — a holy war against those I deemed evil.

Then the market broke lower with alacrity. My ruinous session had been redeemed and I once again felt like a champion — the type of person to tell you to your internet face to “fuck off and to kneel before the iBankCoin standard” prior to offering advice. I closed out of my shorts about mid-way into the sell off — not because I cowered but because I am a professional and realized I had been under witch’s spell earlier to risk so much on a market collapse. It had seemed beneath me as I covered them for minor losses.

The transgendered bulls lost the initiative and then the NASDAQ — pandemonium broke loose — sending it down more than 120 and the VIX soaring more than 13%. I switched sides, as I am prone to do and began to accumulate stocks — reducing my losses from -2% to just -53bps for the session.

I stand before you redeemed and completely in charge, victorious over the stock Gods and everyone else — even though I lost a little money. Making money is only part of the process of being a successful trader. Confidence is everything and as of now — my esteem cannot be higher. I am HEAVILY LONG but with a sizable hedge via $TZA.

Tomorrow we cut off the heads of our enemies and let them know who is in charge.

Since I obviously haven’t the slightest idea what I am doing today — perhaps you — the unwashed reader class of person can illuminate this for me.

Here is the fucking backdrop.

Geopolitics: next to apocalyptic
Market Breadth: 26%
Inverse ETFs: $LABD +9%, $TZA +5%, $SRTY +5% $SQQQ -0.44%. REALLY CUNTS?

VIX: $UVIX -2.4% — REALLY?

Small caps -1.9%
NASDAQ FLAT

Listen to me now — I would bet my life this market CAREENS THE FUCK LOWER. I’m so confident I wouldn’t even want a reward. My life for lower stocks. If it goes lower, I am just right. If it gaps up, I die.

For the love of God — the rigging must end.

I do realize this is loser talk, always blaming external enemies for internal faults. HOWEVER, look at it.

I am now 43% short, 16% cash — obstinately down 100bps.

I’m pretty sure the stock Gods are now completely focused on my every move. If I sell ABC, they bid it up. If I buy XYZ, it collapses. In many regards, I am bogged. Perhaps I deserve it. Perhaps I’ve been tweeting too much on X, disseminating the wrong type of news and have annoyed them. Whatever the case may be, I have have OUTSIZED losses to the down side today, off by 144bps, extremely stupid and dreadfully retarded.

Small caps plunged at the open. Good thing I had shorts in large caps. Markets were weak, except for volatility. Good thing I was long volatility and $UVIX is careening lower. Just a short while ago, I bought a handful of larger cap stocks do offset my SQQQ for a momentary pause — but those too have gone lower and now I am off by 151bps.

Here is the problem.

If I close out my shorts now — the markets will of course crash. The second I do it — stocks will fall. Trust me on this. But if I hold them, we might soar into the afternoon and beyond.

I could always add to my shorts, just to anger the stock Gods even further. Perhaps I might tweet some more news to annoy them or find a way to mock them, such as saying something like this.

Listen here, cunts. You cannot get away with doing this to me. I want to speak to your manager. I am going to get you fired.

There, I feel better already.

It’s worth noting, no one should listen to a damned thing I have to say about stocks now — since I am cursed, moping about in a losers gait, both stupid and dense.

Cheers.

About Mid-afternoon I was feeling my oats, fully in control and boastful of being a war market general — easily navigating the waters — taking bounty at my leisure — resting scornfully in the tall grass.

In the final hour of trade, however, my fortunes reversed in what I can only describe in a retarded way.

The move higher was predictable, any person not lying in the tall grass in search of prey saw it coming. I kept my $UVIX and $SQQQ, mostly because I too was retarded, and attempted to cosmetically shift away from that carnage by leveraging up long into an array of stocks — frantically buying anything I could get my paws on. The easiest coarse of action, and I knew this as I follied, would by to close out the shorts and book the gains. Instead of that, I have losses of $15k and climbing in them. Overall, I shed just 20bps — giving up session high gains of 60bps in the process of resting easily and calmly looking for collapse. In the midst of all that, a giant homosexual elephant snuck up from behind and stomped out my lion’s teeth.

At the present, I am still fighting the gay elephant and hope to have better news tomorrow, as I am fixed in a morass of idiocy — flat for the week and flat for October.

It always goes this way, especially when emotional about a trade — the dreadful imposition of ego commingled into the job of following direction. Hitherto, I had been in control and possessed a clear vision of the future. But right now, I’m trapped in a jungle fending off flamboyant elephants and feces throwing gorillas with bananas in tow.

Pray for Fly.

I’m up 40bps into the latter hours of the session. I closed out my treasury long and kept my shorts, whilst also adding to a pastiche of longs. It’s a difficult thing to do, betting on collapse at the same time collapse isn’t happening. One might surmise I’m entirely delusional — betting against stocks. It has always been a fool’s errand to partake in the betting against of stocks, since in large part they almost always go higher.

Nevertheless, I remain hopeful in seeing it through and will wade into longs to preserve both my dignity and capital as needed.

The market took on a glum demeanor about an hour or two ago when reports circulated that missiles and drones had been streaming out of Lebanon into Israel. Such reports have been largely discounted or thrown out altogether. The small caps were down nearly 1% and now they’re only off by 0.47%.

Into the final hour, judging by the action, we might see some churn — false collapses and even falser surges to the upside. I do not expect much change, as we’re presently in a holding pattern with markets reeling from recent losses, attempting to rally off the lows, while at the same time dealing with some really negative geopolitical news. I suppose at the end of the day, the news of war isn’t all that bad for stocks. I hate to be that guy — but it’s true.

Good morning —

I had to bail out of most of my oils this morning as the price suddenly swooned lower. I added to my UVIX position and some military contractors and now patiently sit in the tall grass waiting for the mustard seeds to grow and flourish like wild flowers.

There are innumerable ways this market can collapse, mostly off the weight of its own hubris. Slowly but surely, the foundations of it fribble away — like hard pieces of earth being washed away by a hard current. I am of course prepared for all theatricalities, as all professional money managers should — especially during a time of war. Whilst my gains are bountiful for the year, +38% — I cannot be mollified. I endeavor, if I might say so, to profit mightily from the coming collapse and sit restive — both fixed and focused — as the unwashed catamite longs herald in what they believe to be a bull market renewed — but instead invite ravenous discord.

The gaieties will soon end and with it the sinister schemes of quill pushers and blackguardly caitiffs.

Early going, the NASDAQ is +77 with bond yields coming in. I happen to be long bonds via $TMF and feel in a risk off event we can finally see rates coming down on the 10yr BELOW 4%. Perhaps there is a silver lining in all of the death and carnage, after all.

Good Day —

I come to you with grim news of a second aircraft carrier being dispatched to Israel, which means we now have roughly 200-300 warplanes in the area. It would seem this is just for show — but in the off-chance it isn’t and instead designed to strike at Iran — in order to kill two birds with one stone, disabling their ability to help Russia in Ukraine — I’ve felt it necessary to issue a warning to all those reading me now.

There are very few moments in time when actual surprises to the downside could happen on a geopolitical scale. We are now inside of the beast now and anything can happen. Because of the turmoil boiling over, I’ve taken measures to protect myself with a little VIX and some SQQQ — long an array of oil and defense stocks — prepared for all eventualities.

While you sit there with your stupid face laughing at all of the carnage and bloodshed, entertained from the comforts of your piece of shit homes — forces move against you.

Markets have shot higher today based off war. The idea of it causes erections in many people in America — mostly due to their sexual perversions and inadequacies. Listen to me now – a pallor of doom is affixed to humanity and the candor of the commentary, calling for genocide, is palpable.

Pay attention and good luck.