Bulls Need a Miracle

I’ve traversed the landscape and all I see it chaos and ruin. Stocks are inexorably in a bear market and we’re gonna need a miracle to escape from a prolonged and retracted drawdown.

Just in the last the months — shares of our elite defense contractor Raytheon are down 30%. How are we supposed to finance global wars with the share price of our primary missile manufacturing struggling like this?

Here are some other ribald losses for you to think about whilst you smoke your estate pipes.

$NEE -34%
$SHOP-20%
$AMX -22%
$EL -28%
$TGT -21%
$F -22%
$FTNT -24%
$EW -23%

For the love of God — shares of $CHWY have collapsed to the tune of -53% in the last 3 month, threatening to deprive your beagles and hounds of the bones they so preciously adore.

I know your sentiment — “we are oversold, ergo, and this goes without saying — nothing drops like a fucking anchor to the bottom of the sea.” The thing is — we might not have a ship left to drop anchor in. We might need to escape in life rafts soon and leave the spoils for the endless hordes of migrants to punch, knife, and claw about in a meandering hellscape crafted by the demonic entities you so lovingly voted into office.

I bailed on my bullish ideas after 10 mins out there seeing stocks wanting to crater again. My patience for these sort of things grows weary over time and I tend to prefer the comforts of cash when indecision is abounds.

I have just $FNGU and $TZA now, a dastard combination if I’ve ever seen one. I should probably go to 100% cash, but then I’d feeeeeel as if I were missing out on something.

I just sold $FNGU, so now I’ll only be missing out if the markets crashes through the fucking floorboards. But even still, I’m 90% cash, so it’s not much of a position at all.

In hindsight, I should’ve placed myself in 70% cash, the rest $SQQQ, $TZA. But we cannot go back and there aren’t any do overs.

I just added some $SQQQ. The more I look at the tape, the more I hate it.

If you were charged with the French defense at the Maginot line in 1940, attempting to repel a Nazi invasion and those Nazis simply went around all of your elaborate works and pickets — leaving your left flank exposed — what would you do? Lesser men would surrender the entire country and spend the rest of the war in rusting destroyers in Martinique; but not I.

Today I stand before you victorious again, +32bps. I saw the Nazis coming and instead of letting them parachute their shock troops behind me — I furiously fired anti-aircraft batteries into the sky — ruining their plans.

I AM NET LONG and although this may chagrin a great many of my bearish friends out there — just know I hold no allegiance to any of you and will break our pact with one another at any time. I am sort of like Italy circa world war 2. One minute I am on your side, the next I am helping to invade your Fatherland.

Look — if you want to trade successfully you have to be consistent with your logic. If you were bearish yesterday due to high rates and oil and those things came down today — it would BEHOOVE you to not go long and give it the old college try on the upside.

Moreover, inside of my stock laboratory, Stocklabs, the percent of stocks rated “bullish” is near historical lows — almost always a signal that fantastical runs to the upside loom in the not too distant future.

Good afternoon —

After I published my blog yesterday a round table of the most powerful people in the country got together and hashed out ways to rig the market higher. I don’t have an exact transcript of what occurred — but it went something like this.

“Ok people we’ve got work to do. The fucking yields are too high and so is oil. In order to jimmy this market back up we’re gonna need to fix some things here.”

“You — what’s your name?”

“Me, Sir, I am Joe.”

“Joe who?”

“Biden, Sir, sorry.”

“Well Biden — I want you to get out their and crush the dollar. Do you think you can handle that son?”

“Oh yes Sir, thank you for this privilege.”

“Next I need the fucking price of oil to come down. You over there — Chuck Shmuck right.”

“Yes Sir.”

“Crush it.”

“Consider it done.”

“Finally we need rates to fall. That we’ll give to our good friend Mr. Powell.”

“It would be my honor Sir.”

And voila — today the price of oil is down nearly 5%, the US 10yr down 7bps, and the dollar is down 0.45% vs the Euro.

The NASDAQ is +125, but the small caps are still weak and they’re lower by 0.3%.

As for me, I bailed out of many of my shorts at the opening tick and hold some TZA, eagerly waiting in the tall grass, like all lions should, for some prey to prance about me. When I see it, I will pounce on it and lock jaw — tearing it limb from limb until satiated. My losses are 40bps and I blame them almost entirely on my dog — who kept me up last night for sojourns into the night with an upset stomach. I might’ve slept 2hrs when the market opened and then I decided to take what we call a “power nap” in America also known as “going back to sleep” and when I woke up — markets had turned against me.

No matters — the fucking dog is ok now and I am feeling good. My health is once again fantastic and my mood very fine.

Listen to me

This is not a drill and although you’re not serious people — I feel obligated to inform you of what is transpiring.

We have crossed the rubicon of oversold and done so along time ago. We are now ebbing, ungraciously, towards actual crisis — the sort of crisis that calls for an old fashioned flushing out.

Investor margin debt stands at an impressive $700b, down from a trillion built up at the top of markets when all of the morons traded cartoons for a living. But over the past two years, markets have collapsed and with it the money of all of those people who felt it was a good idea to buy digital pictures of rocks for millions of dollars.

Look — we have a problem here. Mortgages are cresting towards 8% and there isn’t any end in sight to what looks like a run on US treasuries. I grew up in an America that was known to me as just and resilient, hard but fair. We are none of those things now — gone are the halcyon days of largess and in comes the tyranny of a few weak men — imposing themselves onto the many.

I closed the session down 46bps — because I am a professional of the highest esteem. I am NET SHORT into tomorrow and view the VIX as LOW in the 20s. A real crisis deserves a VIX of 30 and higher. Very soon we will begin to hear about margin calls and hedge funds blowing up in fantastic fashion.

Backi in the dot com days when I was a stockbroker — I once had a personal margin call of $300,000. My margin clerk, her name was Felicia, all but kicked in my door and demanding payment post haste else she was prepared, as it was her right to do so, to liquidate my account at the market and fuck me over royally. After I had written the check and satisfied the call, the very next day I lost tens of thousands of it in a market that spawned directly from hades itself — all but ruining any plans young Fly had at building lasting wealth in a market as perverse as the dot coms.

At any rate, brace yourselves for severe downside action — the sort of tape that causes you to pretend it’s not really happening, only that it is and you’re here now reading me warning you about it ahead of time — something you will come to appreciate as the tenor of time manifests itself.

Many of my hedge fund friends are complaining to me now about the “cowardice” of traders. They tell me “why isn’t anyone buying stocks? Why don’t you write about how cheap things are Fly?” I can only tell them that “it’s over — and you need to shut up now and plan for life after money management.”

For the sake of your families and all those you hold dear — have a looksy, if you will, at the US 10yr — rapidly and fastidiously approaching 5%. People earning less than $500,000 per annum will never be able to buy a home again.

To suggest mildly that “it’s over” is a gross understatement and I only say it in passing, matter of factly. When you really come to think about it, we are much more likely to resume hostile activities against one another in this country — rather than live in peace and equanimity.

We are mostly an animus people — always on the lookout for war and turmoil. It’d be nice to just chalk it up to the government and blame them — but the people are culpable in nearly every single crime committed by the ruling elite and you’d behoove yourselves into thinking otherwise.

In front of me now is the choice between buying this dip or shorting into the hole. By buying into the dip I am siding with the transgendered bulls — thinking stocks have bottomed and better times are ahead. If I short into the hole, I am betting on collapse — a seasonal tradition steeped in rich history and custom. Many men better than you have ruined themselves in October — forced to jump head long out of their windows and right onto the concrete below.

I’d like to believe stocks are poised to crash — because to be frank with you — that’s exactly what we deserve.

But we are getting very oversold here and my instincts for preservation are alive and well. In other words, I need more time to figure this out.

Markets are careening lower — with the NASDAQ down 190 — and I have light jazz music playing in the background — Autumn Breeze to be specific. I knew it was going to happen. The forecast was for a category 5 hurricane — but I wanted to play just one more round of golf. The way I was thinking way back yesterday was “it’d be nice to squeeze in a quick 18 holes before the storm comes.” Unfortunately, the storm came sooner than I had expected and now I am reeling back to my car.

I lost my hat, down 74bps early going only saved by a volatility hedge placed yesterday before the close. In case you’re worried about me — do not. I have many hats and possess a unique ability to survive storms.

One time as a boy all of NYC was hiding inside of their homes upon the landing of Hurricane Gloria. I peered out of my window and saw the trees sway side to side — sheets of rains blanketing the landscape. I did what any person my age would do in a situation like that — I called on my friend and we played baseball in the parking lot and I hit a grand slam — the winds carried the ball off my bat perhaps 1,000 feet never to be seen again. It is possible that ball, hit in 1985, might still be traveling today.

I want you to recognize what is occurring today and act accordingly. The US 10yr is 4.76%, up another 7bps. We have a crisis underway, emanating from the highest echelons of power down to the looters rampaging throughout the nation completely unchecked, protected even. We are in the early stages of SOCIETAL COLLAPSE and to price that in we’re going to need thousands upon thousands of Dow points to be shaved off the index. In an honest and just world, markets will return to the 2009 lows when it satanically bottomed at 666 on the S&P 500.

As of right now, I have 10% in $SQQQ, 56% cash, the rest in some low beta large cap stocks, broadly diversified — resisting the urge to go all in short because it’s early and retards love to buy dips, reminiscing on brighter days when Pax Americana was at its apex. But it’s over and I sorry you’re too stupid to figure it out.

Audio version

Think about how foolish you all are, betting against the man who 10 x’d his account since 2021. Look at me — I stand before you +74bps for the session — supremely confident in my position. I have a pastiche of longs and shorts, optimally derived in my laboratory of stocks — a denizen of profound profit.

Whilst you meander about markets, I command a presence and dominate the field of finance.

The important thing to remember about this specific tape is treasuries are screaming higher and the prices of those bonds on the balance sheets at the banks have all but collapsed in value — down to BELOW 50% from basis.

Towards the latter part of the afternoon, the cabal rigged it higher — led by $AAPL, $MSFT, GOOGL and other cabal stocks. They do as they like while they can — but eventually the fires will rise and consume them — reducing their plans and material wealth to dust.

Meanwhile, I am NET LONG into tomorrow, with an intent to harvest my early autumn gains at the open — trading small and carefully, building wealth over time as all reputable houses have done since the Roman Empire salted the earth of Carthage.

I am 10% exposed to the market as of now — but that can change at any moment. I am long $SOXL because the market is down heavily and whenever that happens — retards enter the foray and bid it up.

I am +62bps so far in smart trading — very smart indeed. I have been long and short — but mostly right.

The presumption is we are going to cascade lower and detonate the 401k plans of all hard working Americans by Hallow’s Eve. That presumption, dare I say, is exactly right.

The US 10yr is +10bps and all hell is busting loose in the treasury market, further deepening the already crimson losses at the banks. We have an inexorable and palpable crisis evolving and the people are mad as hell about it.

I’d say the mood in America is worse than I’ve ever seen it in my lifetime. People, generally speaking, want upheaval at home and peace abroad.

Today’s markets are foisting unbelievable cartoonish sized losses in just about every venue BUT Bitcoin miners and trillion dollar monopolies. If you’re not involved in those niche areas of the market, your losses are in the ball park of -1.5% today.

My gains are handsome because I am handsome and I’ve worked harder than you to perfect my trade. This doesn’t have to be an adversarial relationship, as you are of course welcome to join Stocklabs for as little as $2 per day and glean off my ideas like a chum fish attached to a great white shark.

Audio version of blog

Long ago when I was a cold caller at a brokerage firm my boss came around to my desk and sat down in front of me. It was about 10pm and I had been smiling and dialing all day and all night. He said to me “I made $85,000 this month and have nothing to do with it. You know how I do this Fly?”

Curious, I eagerly rang back “No, how, please tell me.”

He got up and said to me “because I work smart, not hard, pal” — and then walked away.

At that time I wanted to spring up and decapitate him. But as the years worn by and my own success achieved itself through manners of method, his cocained fueled words that night resonated with me more and more.

People who only work hard have no choice in the matter and are like machines — oiled with coffee and greasy egg sandwiches — whose sole purpose on this planet is to toil.

At the open of trade this morning, I executed my trades and came out the other end +45bps.

Do you know how I did that pal?

Because I worked smart on Friday, not hard, and now I preside before you at your desk to tell you these things because fuck you.

AI video version of blog