Into the Final Hours, I Anticipate Chicanery

I’m up 40bps into the latter hours of the session. I closed out my treasury long and kept my shorts, whilst also adding to a pastiche of longs. It’s a difficult thing to do, betting on collapse at the same time collapse isn’t happening. One might surmise I’m entirely delusional — betting against stocks. It has always been a fool’s errand to partake in the betting against of stocks, since in large part they almost always go higher.

Nevertheless, I remain hopeful in seeing it through and will wade into longs to preserve both my dignity and capital as needed.

The market took on a glum demeanor about an hour or two ago when reports circulated that missiles and drones had been streaming out of Lebanon into Israel. Such reports have been largely discounted or thrown out altogether. The small caps were down nearly 1% and now they’re only off by 0.47%.

Into the final hour, judging by the action, we might see some churn — false collapses and even falser surges to the upside. I do not expect much change, as we’re presently in a holding pattern with markets reeling from recent losses, attempting to rally off the lows, while at the same time dealing with some really negative geopolitical news. I suppose at the end of the day, the news of war isn’t all that bad for stocks. I hate to be that guy — but it’s true.