Do not misconstrue this missive for a complaint. These are just facts.
The market is already dead. Agreed? Without the Fed we are at zero right now and the market is halted for 6 months. Going forward into a NEGATIVE 40% GDP, markets would COLLAPSE again and cause social discord to the point of home invasions for toilet paper. Essentially, we are presently propped up on digital dollars papering over losses and filling the black void that is this depression. Pardon me as I take artistic license on the word “depression.” I’ve always conjured up wild ideas in my head that -40% GDP and 30% unemployment fit the bill.
The reason why we’re not down 3,000 today is because news of a reduced number of people being admitted into NYC ICUs. Now these numbers were bound to drop, since we’re all holed up in the house now. What happened once we’re released out into the public, like Kool-Aid guys hopped up on too much caffeine — touching and grabbing one another again — sneezing directly into each other’s fucking faces?
I don’t know — but Morgan Stanley does. The catamites are Morgan UPPED their lower end range for the SPY for 2020 to 2,500, chiding investors to take advantage of dips — a lesson of sorts now with the benefit of hindsight. Yes, all of the stewards of capital who were holding COCKS IN HANDS a fortnight ago are now declared geniuses again — because they had the eternal fortitude and fortune to fall asleep at the wheel. Clients will be most grateful this Xmas season, as the FEMA COFFINS are ferried into their city square by intermodal transport.
Everyone is a fucking know it all and everyone knows nothing. In the end, you drop dead of a heart attack and someone says a few nice things about you, buries you cheaply, and forgets you ever existed. In the meantime, from now until then, markets are going to apply max pain. It is your job as someone who is tactical to figure out where the pain resides. Does it reside in the asleep at the wheel guy sucking Fed cock every night or the guy who’s missed out on a decade worth of bull market because he couldn’t accept the rigged game?
I do not have a definitive answer — because like you I know nothing. I am only good at reacting spontaneously to the pangs and the bangs. For the day, I sold two stocks, basically a wash. I like gold, even some oil here — and fuck the banks.
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The AUD has been rallying from sub-6000 to now above 6400 in the last 10 days.
It’s still saying risk-on, for now.
True. The dollar in general has been pretty risk on for a couple of weeks now.
The AUD rally may be partially risk on but also is likely connected to closing the correlation gap between AUD and gold which had opened wide during the crash (not that the crash is over).
AUD is an interesting play right now since it seems likely to benefit from rising gold and therefore QE.
I guess the question really still is inflation or deflation.
This fascination with Fed money is unhealthy. Small businesses exhausted federal money in a matter of weeks. What’s the point of unlimited money if it’s trapped in the pools and can’t get to the fields?
@Mr. Cain Thaler I’m not sure that fed money is getting exhausted. I think the banks are playing games with it. I don’t think it is getting out of the banks. I hear a lot of ” we lack the proper guidance to lend right now.” Coming from a banker I translate that to mean something like “we are keeping the cash to shore up our capital ratio.”
Or is that what you were saying already? I wasn’t sure.
I’m hearing several things and think a combination of all of them are true:
1) the $350 Billion lending facility to small businesses was oversubscribed in a manner of days. We went from small business able to loan potentially up to a million dollars to tens of thousands because it was all accounted for
2) banks are being very cautious about lending here. I’m hearing that SBA lending is being turned off as quickly or quicker than emergency lending is being made available.
3) there’s a whole system that has to be navigated to get to the funding. Mountains of paperwork and arbitrary deadlines.
From the perspective of small and even some medium sized businesses, there’s just not clean way of accessing funding. The Feds preferred method of buying up publicly traded assets doesn’t get to them and the Federal Government is going to have trouble just handing out cash to 1/20th of the community forever and pretend like that’s fair and equitable.
The way you get money to small businesses is they have customers. But they don’t have any customers.
NUGT working in right direction again…
A virus so contagious – has spread all corners of the world in 3 months – has left few untouched, inferring immunity. I was blindsided in my practice experience, the scrouge reached my isolated homebound patients last. Several passed away last week.
The sputtering resurgence of cases in East Asia is a direct result of efforts to contain ie hindering herd immunity.
It’s all in the earnings minus interest rates (inflation). Where are we now? Huge drop in earnings coming up and near zero floor interest rates is not a whole lot to play with. A new era.
Gold is continuing to work, whether the miners decide if they are a gold proxy or an equity remains to be seen.
CVNA This stock is a joke.
Guaranteed, corona free.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carvana-raises-600-million-continue-181100111.html
AMZN to the moon
TSLA is back! Shorts crying about manipulation and MM again.
There is money on both sides of that trade. Love the volatility!
6 Dem govs make move against Trump and Biden.
Turmoil is us.
…based on expert advice and the good of the many …of course.
EPIC post … one of the all-time best
I still have straddles. Pain for all.
Glad I didn’t move my retirement funds to cash at the lows. That would have been pretty dumb.