iBC servers were down, but now we’re back up. Let’s bring you up to speed.
6.6m jobless claims for the past week, bringing us up to a grande total of 16m the past 3 weeks, raising unemployment rate to 10%. On that news, futures crashed lower. But then the Fed announced their $2.3t “Main Street” facility, which included a new $500b for Munis and also the authority to purchase HIGH YIELD bonds and CLOs. Bro, they’re buying LEVERAGED LOANS. This is the result of some hard lobbying by private equity. Coupled with that, they’re now talking about a May 1st reopening of the economy. All of this sounds sweet and wonderful. But remember, this is all talk. None of this is putting spenders back in the economy.
Nevertheless, because of the Fed action, futures soared and now we’re up 525. I took this spike ti liquidate my trading positions.
Here were the results.
RWT +25%
PMT +8.6%
MTG +7.8%
CIT +12.5%
CC +11%
ORC +9%
CBRL +8%
HA +8.8%
NUGT +10.4%
FTI +6.6%
This is getting somewhat redundant. I get it. But let me make something indelibly clear for you. NO ONE DOES IT BETTER THAN ME. I am now on a 26 for 26 winning streak.
JWN +24.6%
WW +16.4%
ALLY +13.7%
STWD +18.5%
H +14%
TREE +10.1%
SQ +7.7%
ZEN +7%
CPB +1.9%
NYMT +33%
MFA +8.3%
MAC +10.8%
CNK +4.4%
SM +4.8%
GCO +5.1%
STWD +1.4%
RWT +25%
PMT +8.6%
MTG +7.8%
CIT +12.5%
CC +11%
ORC +9%
CBRL +8%
HA +8.8%
NUGT +10.4%
FTI +6.6%
Presently, I am 55% cash, tightly sealed inside of the Jelly Jar and other old man stocks paying dividends. I am doubtful that I will force myself back into high beta trading positions after such a run. But anything can happen.
Thank you for playing. Join us inside Exodus for real time FRESH FISH directly inserted into your fucking face.
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Numbers, gone down with drip, nowhere to be seen. He is very good with numbers, only problem, GIGO.
GIGO is a good description of what the FED is doing. So my mistake would be:
1) underestimating FED actions (to a saml lextenet)
2) underestiamting the market’s reaction to the FED (to a large extent)
Cases in point:
1) The FED is NOT buying small business loans: the are taking SBA as collateral, just like I said.
2) The FED IS buying **medium* to*large* business laons, whcih is new. Minimum loan size is $1M, and banks have to amintain skin-in-the-game, so don’t expect the local bakery to qualify. Waht’s more, the maximum loan size also has a cap of 4-6 (depednign on the program) 2019 EBITDA – when added to existing debt and and credit lines. For many small businesses, this shrink the maximu debt so that it falls below the minimum threshold, thus elimianting them from the progem.
3) Rumor that the FED is buying junk bonds are greatly exagerateed.. Look at the ratings for JNK and HYG: holdings. Less than 1% qualify for the FED program.
I am defintely gettign killed on DRIP, but a lot is riding on today’s meeting. Here’s the real situation:
1) US imports from Saudi dropped tremendously in 2019. Saudi hate the shale guys.
2) Putin cahllenged Saudi Arabi (perhaps underestiamting them), and Saudi Arabia doubeld down: (“we’ll both die together”).
3) Trump basicalyl said “FU guys” to his best friends MBS and Putin. He is bettign that they will drop production even with out US doing anything (other than market-related production drops). Importantly, that is NOT Russia’s well-stated public position: they have *explicitly* stated that they wouldn’t drop production unless the US also did. Still, MBS and Putin may still back down anyway. Remaisn to be seen, but it woudl be a HUGE loss of face for Putin, and would make the second time in a month that he bluffed and lost agaisnt another world leader in the oil game.
Just understand that people do be keeping track of your trades.
I got burned over a small short position (and I even stated my hesitation about that trade) the other day and someone still pointed that out rather promptly.
Trick Perspective Question:
Which is bigger?
1) The GDP of Russia
2) The GDP of the New your Metropolitan Area (pre-Covid)
Answer: they’re about the same. The giant Russian Boogeyman is funhouse mirrored strictly for the benefit of defense contractors and political convenience.
As Doug Casey says, Russia is just a gas station with a fireworks store attached.
New York Metro Area
Russia is also a gigantic troll farm.
Russia is white Mexico
I will stick with my brown hombres and Mexican food. Thanks.
I have great respect for Russian people, spurred my understanding of human intelligence. The despotic murderous rule did lead to some kinks. They single-handed faced western colossus supported by east(japan, SK, etc) for quite some time.
National IQ, Russia 96, India 76, Mail 60.
So bow to Singapore and Hong Kong.
tjnyt, since you brought it up… waht exactly is IQ? One thing is for certain, it sin’t as easy to quantify as BMI.
The probelm with most IQ tests is that conflate knowledge with intelligence. For example, do you the name of my neighbor’s 5-yo kid? No? Well he does. Does he have an higher IQ? If the IQ test wasn’t given in your native langauege, do you think that woudl affect how you would score? So jsut how do you writet an international IQ test? How do ensure that an authoritarian dictator doesn’t filter whcih students get to take the test? If a student is from a background in whcih he ahsn’t been abelt ot attend school, does that make him genetically less intelligent?
Then of course, isn’t it fair to define IQ loosely as the ability for the brain to quickly process any inforamtion, then the IQ of atheletest is underrated. Shooting a foul shot just requries a below-average amount of strength and the brain to send the right electrical impulses to the skeltal muscles. So obviosuly basketball players brains are much better than this than the average person: they are smarter on this metric (being stronger does help to some extent). Now if you expand this with their ability to anticipate what other players will do, then there likely are very few NBA players with barin power below the average persons. They just speicalized in differnt things.
Smart post. But there are also a lot of powerful Americans with familial history in Russia who miss the Yeltsin days when they were able to harvest that country’s wealth unmolested. They don’t like Putin for that reason ..and have trained us to hate him too.
Numbers is like Carl blue blazer Denninger. A fucking expert on everything and always on the wrong side of the trade!
Like I said, at least you provide color commentary.
This was my worst week all year and I am still way ahead of you.
Maybe you can join my wager with him. He has been dodging it.
New lows sayers, dead from COVID19?
I recall another very long winning streak of yours maybe a year or so ago. I don’t recall if it was more or less than 26 though.
On another note, you may want to buy a replacement “+” key for your keyboard since you are certainly wearing it out.
Holding only shorts now.
Nice.
Do you agree that The Ark …isn’t?
I buy GOLD COINS and 1000 oz BLOCKS OF SILVER. I can fog a mirror too so if I leave my big mouth wide open will the fish slide down my throat too?????
ES 2800 and above is worth shorting incrementally, for the next few trading sessions at least.
UCO had to be the most telegraphed trade of week. Out at 2.64.
Ona political note, Trump said soemthing at his press conference that is both (1) factually correct and (2) insightful, a real rarity
Trump said that Bernie is keepign his delegates, and want people to continue voting for him in upcoming primaries, which isn’t really conceding. Have to agree with Trump on that one. Weeks ago it was obviosu that Bernie couldn’t win a majority *or* a plurality large enoguh to win the nomination. So the only reason he was still in the race was to gather delegates.
If he was really conceding, then he would ahve thrown his support over to Biden, instead of telling peoepl to keep votign for him. Now i undersatnd his strategy about moving the Democratic paltform, but this must have been the strategy for quite a few weeks now. I don’t think Bernie conceded in the politcal sense, but only publicly stated waht was already statistcally obvious: he wasn’t goign to win the 2020 Democratic nomination.
Now Biden has to pick a VP that leasn liberal to unite the party, but the big problem is that both Bernie and Warren are too old. He has already committed to a women. I wouldn’t palce money on any of the women that ran in the 2020 election though,becuase most are at least as conservative as he is. Biden does well enoguh in Middle American and among white men, that really he needs to boost his support among young voters and liberals.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/public_approval_of_president_trumps_handling_of_the_coronavirus-7088.html
Wait till the bug hits Hicksville and his approval figures tank. That’s when he goes batshit crazy again.
Biden has 4 choices: Harris, Duckworth, (Val) Demings, and Masto-Cortez. I know a few donors in my domain who insist on those 4 being the last 4 on his shortlist.
Gababrd took out Harris for this term. Staretgically useless. Is she there to pick up coservateive AA voters? Independatns in West Coast states?
Economic inequality and the 1% power structure are the issues that drove Bernie and Warren’s campaign’s – and Trump’s as well. It woudl be a huge mistake to not pick a candidate that hasn’t raield agaisnt this power structure if he wats to win independants
Of course, gun control and cliamte cahnge may do more to drive the youth vote.
Black enough and woman enough. More visually pleasant than Stacey Abrams. That’s all the AA average voters need to know.
This is a Trump referendum election–Biden winning the nomination is the tell. Any “issues” voter (by definition high-information voter) will still vote regardless of who ends up on the Biden ticket.
..and Harris has proven herself a reliable tool. Willing to say and do anything. This is a comfort to the folks who run the place. Biden, if he were elected, is more likely than most to step down during his term, so the establishment is selecting a president. Add Michelle Obama, a reliable tool thus far to your list …does she want it?
2024 is a generation away in politics, Fly.
A lot of new faces will pop up and Harris may be irrelevant by then (if she doesn’t end up being the VP in 2021). The Obamas won’t return to politics. They just want the publicity thru their flirting with the rumors.
hmm, let’s see now
1) Candidate with long history with Democatic Party? Check
2) Prediential Candidate linked to president that was highly popualr among African AMericans? Check
3) Trump referndum election? Check
4) Vice President candaite that doesn’t energize the young voters or liberals? TBD
Yup, how can the Democrats lose…?
I gurantee that Turmp’s money machine will tie Biden to Wall Street Finace. (“the senator form mbna”), and he needs someone to refute this.
Do you knwo why Obama picked Biden i nthe first place? Pbama was going to do great among liberasl and AA,s but needed someone to balance the ticket.
You’re still overthinking it. Narrow your scope to the 70k votes in PA-WI-MI.
Trump lost MI already. I have distant relatives in Detroit and Flint. The “working class” whites did not get anything Trump promised them.
So we’re down to PA and WI. Similar stories as MI. Everyone who voted in 2016 will vote again this time. The low-information voters go by how they feel on election day. If the economy is still in the toilet and/or the virus adversely affected them personally, they will vote for Biden.
On Obama’s choosing Biden: I distinctively remember Obama praising Biden in one of the debates in 2007 and knew he already made up in mind at that time.
The economy didn’t completely “crater” when he had to finalize the ticket in summer 2008. So Biden it was.
He would have chosen Hillary had the economy already crashed, because balancing the ticket would not have been all that necessary. (Obama was between Biden and Hillary by the ideological rankings and he would have wanted to have the first female VP for posterity.)
Ok, you’re putting in the work blogging year in year out. IBC brings in new Exodus people. Great.
Exodus is a powerful toolset for active traders who can take advantage of it.
But the price point is too high for the occasional visitor. However, occasioal visitors may find the IBC blog itself very useful and amusing. Today how do they show appreciation if they desire to? They can’t!
Why not add patreon (far from ideal) or better methods for tipping (crypto, etc.)?
Many long-term bloggers make a living on tips only. You’re already doing the work. Why not get rewarded for it?
It’s the wave of the future. Pay per content. Once set up, it should not take much ongoing effort.
And if a piece goes viral; you’ll notice it.
Not a bad call I’ve probably been drunk enough to tip Fly once or twice and he still gives some free picks one very rare occasions
S+P about 1/2way back this AM. Below /es 2767.75 in the next minutes and I …and others, will try a short
It really depends on your objective.
It would appear that either the Fed buys SPY or we go below 1500. 2800 is insane unless you believe the fed will save us in a month.
We just have that gap at SPX 3333.33 to fill and then it’s safe to go short!
Yeah. I don’t see how the outlook justifies more than 2000. Even with a fed backstop. Earnings won’t be there.
I have been patient. Went short V puts yesterday and added a little EXPE puts today. We shall see. As Fly pointed out yesterday the pain has been felt by people holding cash in their accounts watching stocks take the fuck off without them. But 2700-2800 represents massive overhead supply so, while we might not crash, I doubt we can get a lot higher in the short term.
To infinity and beyond
Yep. If 3400 was priced for perfection WTF is this?
9,000 new cases today in NY and the market declares the curve flat and the economy will be opening soon. AHAHAHAH. We didn’t flatten the curve at 500 cases a day. The amount of this virus floating around this country is huge and there will not be a opening of the economy because we are down to 5000 cases a day in NY. Social distancing will be the mantra of 2020 and it will not end unless there is a cure or vaccine.
The IHME model predicted that was the going to be peak deaths for NY, but 799 died today, so instead of a drop of 16, we got rise of 8.
Surprised they were so far off just 1 day later. If it was a one-time spike, then we should see a big drop tomorrow to the 760s. If not, time to revise the model again.
LOL. Keep buying you fuckin tards. My calls aren’t making sense. What til the puts get their turn.
Just curious, waht are you basing you’re 1500 prediction on?
The way I see it, we have lockdown for May. However, we could ramp up testign enoguh by then that we could actually switch back from the mitigation phase to the isolation phase. Although China was/is outright lying, and Japan was undertesting, SK is a model that we may eventually be able to reach.
Of course, by ramp up testing, this would mean that everybody who so much as coughs should be able to get a test, something that we are far way from, which is still not a guarantee.
Hey Fly. What are you doing in your long term account? Have you jumped back in?
Drip, drip, drip. Still negative, though, but haven’t sold.
Also, nothing personal, but I hate stupid bulls. Sorry. But not really. This fucking oil deal flop wasn’t just predictable, but all the parties (Russai, US, SA, etc.) actually said was goign to happen, but @sholes bought energy anyway.
To make it up to me, why don’t you sell Tesla – an electric car company in a world of $20 oil – so that i can collect on that early.
Sorry, I meant dipshits, not assholes.
Here is an asshole (must be genetic):
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/kimbal-musks-restaurant-chain-bilks-its-2hour-waitstaff-out-their-emergency-family
nobody wants to hold into the long weekend?
“Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is also working isolation on the Red Sea coast, as are many of his ministers.”
If there is justice, then this guy will end up with the same doctor as Khashoggi.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/saudi-hospitals-alerted-influx-vips-150-members-royal-family-have-covid-19
Washington states numbers have looked pretty good the last week or so. Pennsylvania and Maryland’s have not.
Our numbers look good although our data have been terribly fucked up by WA Dept. of Health so I do take a little pause.