SCAM WICKS INTO THE CLOSE

So far my previous post is the bottom, frightened man blogging from an anonymous location — afraid to step up with steeled balls and buy the dips. We have gone straight up since then, all the while I remained in the comforts of cash, having traded just once in FNGU for a small 0.6% gain.

The ideas in my head are all bad and why should they be? We have already driven off the cliff and the car is already submerged in the lake with all participants TRAPPED in their seatbelts. Will the authorities comes out to rescue us (The Fed) and if not — why not? The authorities have always responded to market participants driving off a cliff and into a lake with a rescue team, mostly encouraging words from the shore, cajoling us to get the fuck out of the car and swim to safety.

Into the final hour, I fear that my fear will dissipate and I will once again be headlong into the fires.

I was hedged a little too perfectly and closed out all positions this morning and am up 9bps for my trouble. The market is finally cascading lower and you’d be brave to buy here, when in fact Sir it’s over.

We are now embarking on technical levels from the 2020 lows in Stocklabs, which means we are, at some point, due for a sharp mean reversion bounce. While true, it never feels right and I must admit feeling a deep sense of dread looking at this tape. Then again, that’s my natural walking around demeanor.

100% cash, not eager to play any Intra day levels.

Greetings,

On Friday a heinous error was made in Bavaria, whereby 25,000 emails of former subs, current subs, leads, and also spam accounts were automatically placed into our Mailchimp off boarding workflow, effectively sending out 25,000 emails to everyone to inform them their Stocklabs subscription had been canceled. Although humorous on a rote level, the lack of professionalism at the House of iBankCoin is quickly on the decline — a house in ruins so to say. Things have gone in the direction of the absurd in recent months and there is little that I can do to remedy this at this time. At some point I will right the ship and all will be well. Until then, expect more emails to be sent to you, menacing messages I might’ve typed up at 2am, gravely informing you that your non-existent plan at Stocklabs had been canceled and how, because of this, 20 generations of your bloodline are now cursed as a consequence.

If you have received an email of cancellation, please ignore it or reply and tell the sender to fuck itself.

If there was ever an asset class or classes deserving of annihilation — it is the NFT and crypto space. The decentralized nature of BTC, which is fully reported and taxable to the IRS, is a joke. The idea of paying exorbitant gas fees to buy a fucking picture on the “blockchain” is of course ludicrous. My gains in Ethereum were only enjoyed because I bought the blood — utter catastrophe of an asset class down in the $100s at the time of purchase. The idea of buying it at $4,000 and expecting large outsized returns is absurd.

Having said that, the plebs who bought the top are being washed out and all of the clowns who dedicated their lives to buying and selling on Openseas are now zeroed the fuck out — following an apocalyptic decline in Jpegs.

We are in a bear market for all stocks except those who sell stuff in the grocery or companies who do more than $75 billion in annual revenues. Bitcoin, although fantasized as something separate from the risk structure, has proven to be just another spoke in the wheel — nothing special and nothing immune to the pangs of misery afflicting investors now. It’s too mainstream, filled with abject morons — the dumbest asset class of all — replete with Zoomer and Millennial retards who regard their crypto investments as extensions of their penis instead of some plan or scheme to get rich over long periods of time. The extent of their “research” is as follows: “NEVER GONNA SELL. XYZ IS GONNA MOON. GONNA APE INTO IT BECAUSE THE LOGO IS AWESOME.”

There’s only so much stupidity the world can endure and I view the sinister declines in cryptos to be a most welcomed correction. Perhaps after the dust settles and losses heaved over and spilled out into the general economy we could buy the dip and buy fanciful pictures of decrepit apes at discounted prices for little to nothing in gas fees and be equanimous in our stratagems as we upload into the metaverse.

For the week, the NASDAQ closed down 4.5%, a ruinous start to 2022 and we’re just getting started.

The first act of trickery started with yields, the 10yr spiking like a motherfucker to over 1.75%, catching everyone off-guard. As the inflation story gripped and oils sashayed higher, all else crumbled at the feet of short selling demons — SAAS stocks in particular cascaded lower to levels not conceptualized even in the more grim circumstances. Bell-weather names like HUBS off by 23% for the week — taken to the train station with its passengers riding on the long black train to hell.

I have nothing positive to say, other than the fact that we are so dreary now and the losses so severe, very soon mean reversion will kick in and we can have a glorious rally, filled with fucking gay giraffes and blue elephants. But for now, biotech is trading like all humans are infected with a serum that will soon kill them, eliminating their cash-cow for good and relegating the to them graveyard of former well to do industries. We all need medicine, some more than others. Some of us prefer shots over healthy eating and exercise — big fucking fat piece of shits with no muscles injecting themselves with toxins for the purpose of extending their lives. I don’t see the point of wanting to live so god damned long. If you succumb to the germs of this planet and are expelled from it — it was your time to die. Your loved ones will bury you and think about you on your birthdays — and carry on with their lives as if you never existed at all. ‘Tis the drama and cruelty of life, so make it worthwhile and stop being such a fucking pussy.

You want coin — go make something people want and sell it.

I have no instincts in me to be empathetic for people who are unable to take care of themselves. No one is going to save you and no one cares about your family but you.

I closed the week off by 2.5% in spite of the market doing exactly what I said it would. I mismanaged and traded like a fucking moron and closed out with 42% cash, 10% TZA, 5% UVXY, with a long bias for software via WCLD at 15% alongside a few others stocks. As God is my witness, and you could hold me to this, I will figure out this cunt of a tape and the algorithms its running on and crush by the end of January.

data via Stocklabs

I have done the research and I have the documents. The QQQ’s are down 4% for the week. Expect another 2-3% down and then a rally born in hell will rise up and smite short sellers. CRM is off more than 10% for January, an oddity of sorts. MAX DOWNSIDE for CRM, if I was betting, will be -15%. If we get there, which we should if the NASDAQ drops another 2-3%, go in.

I suppose we’re heading into a bear market and I suppose no one understood stagflation was the prime threat. But here we are with stocks telling us growth is slowing and at the same time rates are increasing. The misdirection is largely in oils and banks — oils strong due to inflation and banks up due to widening spreads thanks to higher rates.

Everything else went to shit.

With losses mounting in areas traditional to retail, one has to wonder what future a stock like HOOD has, given their customer base is now bankrupted

I am 100% cash, up 10bps for the session and I, once again, squandered an opportunity, as I entered the session net short. I covered my shorts and my longs because I just didn’t want to partake in the chicanery. However, we fast approach a mean reversion level in Stocklabs which will be a call to action for me. The next big move is NOT on the downside, but on the upside. Having said that, I would not be so confident at 11am and I would not trust being too long into Monday, since all of the finest market crashes have occurred on Mondays. Perhaps buy a little into the bell and nibble some more after the market opens down 25% on Monday.

About noon I started to buy with vigor. Feeling good about the rally I accumulated the most trodden stocks and it wasn’t long before my heinous losses of 2% were all but erased. During this rise, I could not help to feel as if I escaped a great tragedy. I was recovering from a loss that was mostly self inflicted vis a vie a terrible trade in LABU. But I was recovering and in my mind there was an idea of a rally — a feverish short covering squeeze to punish the short sellers for being so god damned right.

This euphoric sense of being soon crashed up against the rocks of despair, as the lunchtime sojourn quickly became a late day rout — heading into the last day of the week — a Friday during the first week of a new year.

Almost feeling the urge to cry out of anger, I sold my positions, locking in a 1.5% loss — now down 2.45% for the week. I initiated positions for the overnight in UVXY, SQQQ, hedged with a long shot bet on cloud stocks rebounding via WCLD.

It is depressing. This isn’t what we wanted, but it’s what we got.

The odds of this week wrapping up nice is slim. The odds of a nightmarish styled rout is quickly becoming a possibility. My bias is to the downside and if the market rips higher, given my position, I will likely bleed out another 1%. I have been chopped and flipped and churned into butter. The market dips turn up violently and the rips fade and quickly collapse.

On a brighter note, heavily long banks and oils, my Quant closed +2% for the session, really not doing much of anything throughout the session, as the volatility I lament over is focused in both tech and healthcare.

We have strong mean reversion action in battered parts of the market, focus on SAAS. I have no hedges but 35% cash left for further buys.

My losses crested at -205bps and now sit at around -130bps. I had pulled them under 100bps but we are selling off as I write this which makes me even more anxious.

The principle index inside Stocklabs is basically unchanged due to strength in oils, which I opened the day short. This really is a market filled with whip saws. Next thing you know you’re out the windshield onto the pavement. The enemy is of course hope and greed, a deadly combination.

My losses lessened to 1% again as I close this out.

Wish me luck!

We opened strong and then quickly collapsed into quick sand and now no one believes anything. I was tricked into covering my shorts, going long biotech, only to quickly lose 6.5% on the trade, fucking myself right back into shorts and down 1.7% for good measure.

How did I manage this?

Hope.

Now I’m tentative because deep down I still have hope, clinging onto a triple sized position in WCLD thinking todays the day we bounce.

After all, what better way to celebrate Insurrection Day than to have a nice rally?

Nevertheless, I’m presently net short hating life.

I gave up trying to believe and shorted into the fucking hole and recovered HALF my losses, closing down just 0.6%. I feel this is ok and I would feeeeel better if I was up. But look at my quant -4%, and the market in ashes, it’s good to know Le Fly is still immune to market pullbacks and no matter how deleterious a tape gets — I am almost always able to navigate it.

My trick is simply never believing what my thoughts are and instead staying disciplined with stops and following trends, rather than obstinate ideologies.

This is the first week of January, which means the tone is being set now. This immediately reminds me of the semis in 2005, down 6.8% for January — but it was much worse in the trenches. I was managing money back then and I recall, very vividly, wanting to cry all over my book. It also reminds me of Q1 2014 when SAAS got fucking wrecked. The common narrative with those corrections is the fact that they bounced for a single month and then was catacombed in a bear tape till summer.

Could we be entering a bear market?

Well, the fact the Fed is interested in hiking and tapering to fend off inflation, coupled with a weaker economic backdrop, one has to muse at the possibility we are entering a worst case scenario period of STAGFLATION, whereby your buying power deprecates while you lose your job.

We have always felt there was some grand plan of malfeasance taking place, ever since the Fed started to monetize everything, now up to a staggering balance sheet of $9 trillion. Aside from all that, which is of course terrible, we now stare down the barrel of a world wide totalitarian lockdown based upon healthcare under the false guise of expertise and noble stewardship. Nothing could be further than the truth and the COVID cases and deaths continue to spiral higher, almost as fast as government officials strip freedoms and force your children to vaccinate against a virus that cannot be vaccinated against. It all paints a very bleak and terrible picture. People on the other side of the spectrum might believe me to be spewing Chicken Little styled doom.

But am I?

I closed 50% cash, long XLP, DRIP, UVXY, TZA and WCLD.