18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Between Russia and Ukraine, ~25% of the world’s supply of wheat, or at least the amount on the export market, can go completely offline to “the west” at any moment. The ETF that tracks wheat (WEAT) is +21% today. Roughly 40% of the natural gas supplies to Europe come from Europe, so we have an issue now whereby war with Russia will become increasingly uncomfortable for many people. I have no doubt in our ability to innovate ways around this. At this very moment, I am certain Bill Gates and the band are trying to figure out how to make bread out from bugs, or heat your homes with the burning bones of human remains.
Either way, where there is tumult, there is also opportunity.
Companies that focus on potash or increasing crop yields are buys: IPI, MOS, CF, BG, FMC etc
Coal companies are buys: BTU, ARCH, METC, HCC
You can go down the nuclear route too, look at stocks such as CCJ, UUUU, UEC and LEU.
Price inflation hurts the poors most, so I am certain stimulus will be coming soon — which in spite of whatever the fuck Powell thinks he’s gonna do — rates will be coming down in a nightmare scenario of starving poors, runaway prices at the store, war, and of course nothing to heat your homes with.
Look no further than these two statements to see where we are now.
RUSSIAN FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE CHIEF SAYS FOR US THIS IS NO LONGER COLD WAR WITH THE WEST BUT HOT WAR – INTERFAX
PUTIN: WE WILL DESTROY THE WESTERN-CREATED ANTI-RUSSIA.*
Your Royal Lords have demanded that you get really mad at people thousands of miles away from your backyard garden and if called upon — send your boys to fight and die for the glory of the fucking Ukraine. We do this in the name of democracy, so cherished and holy — except for brief interludes when people aren’t willing to inject their teenagers with potentially deadly vaccines or if you might voice an opinion that goes against current state edicts. Other than that, democracy is great — with all of its wonders and spiteful ways.
The backdrop of WW3 isn’t affecting the Dow, which is up 110. The weakness today is small caps and tech. SAAS stocks are down 4.5% and the only place to hide now is in commodity stocks and the occasional old man grocery store type name.
The anti Russian rhetoric is at a fever’s pitch and you should not delude yourselves into believing this will end peacefully. Go out and buy some iodine pills, because Japan just seized the assets of about a half dozen Russian banks. Forget about closing business markets to Russia. Instead of opting for a diplomatic end to a legitimate gripe about NATO on Russia’s front yard, we have gone scorched earth, General Lemay style and soon the satanists will be out in the field killing Russians and their civilians and their infrastructure while calling them war criminals.
At any rate, commodities are skyrocketing in the overnight session and this now has an identical feel to 2008, pre collapse. Hyperbolic moves like this are not sustainable and it will break global GDP, no question.
I will avoid tech like the plague, see SNOW for reasons why, and remain long ag, energy, transporting of commodities, chemicals, while also being hedged every single day at the close.
Market participants bought with both hands and their cocks today, sending the NASDAQ +220, at the same time WTI crested above $111 and the malevolency of geo-politics grips plebs from almost every country in the world. We’re all waiting to see what our masters will say next. Perhaps the Russian masters will send more troops into other European nations and those masters in Europe will meet them on the battlefield where they might nuke one another.
Over here in the Steaks, we see sanctions being applied almost every 5 mins. We all hate Russians now and will soon begin rounding them up and placing them in concentration camps. But before we do that, we will seize their boats, homes, and any money in their bank accounts. While it’s true, they did not cause Putin to invade Ukraine, it’s also true they’re Russian — so they have that really working against them. If, by chance, you know of a Russian — you should probably report him to your local FBI field office, who will then round them up and remove them from your area.
It’s all for our safety.
With all of this Anti-Russian rhetoric and thieving of Russia’s FX reserves ($400b) — I am pretty sure Putin will do nothing and just accept it. He must, after all, otherwise the Europeans will send their planes into Ukraine to bomb his bogged out convoys — who from what I hear have no food nor fuel.
As for the war, it’s going quite poorly for Russia. Ukraine is saying they kill about 1,000 fresh Russian recruits per day, with many more running away from their tanks and into local villages where they are fed pieces of bread, tea, and given a phone to call their mothers. To date, according to my Twitter OSINT follows, the Ukrainian army hasn’t lost a single man. We thought they did when those 13 brave souls told that Russian Warship “GO FUCK YOUR MOTHER’S YOU CUNT” before receiving an artillery shell to the dome. But it turns out, gratefully, they were all captured instead and provided bread and tea and a phone to call their mothers to let them know they’re safe.
Lots of disinformation happening. However, one thing is indelibly certain — THE GHOST OF KIEV has all but rendered Russian air superiority worthless. I believe he’s shot down 100 Russian jets now and, because of that, when Russian pilots see him, instead of trying to shoot their missiles at him — they just eject from their planes and parachute down into a Ukrainian village, where they are provided ample bread, tea, and of course a phone to call home.
As for tomorrow, BEARISH on stocks, except commodities. Those fuckers will continue to light Jim Biden’s cadaver on fire.
The Dow is up more than 600 ahead of tomorrow’s scheduled meeting of terms between Ukraine and Russia. With oil and all commodities through the roof, traders are being incredibly optimistic here — in what could be turning into a nightmarish hellhole of slowing growth, high inflation, and war.
Nothing goes up or down forever, so we trade.
Strength is concentrated in the largest caps, with stocks with market caps more than $100b up 1.9%, while the pennies only +0.9%. Overall, breadth is fantastic and I’d be hard pressed to want to place any shorts earlier than 3:50pm.
On the news front, lots of odd things taking place.
Here goes.
Washington leaves Moscow no choice but to limit America’s diplomatic mission in Russia — Russian FM
POWELL: CRYPTOCURRENCIES ARE A MEANS TO EVADE LAW ENFORCEMENT, AND THAT’S NOT SOMETHING WE SHOULD TOLERATE $BTC
FRANCE’S FINANCE MIN. LE MAIRE: SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA WILL COVER CRYPTO CURRENCIES. $BTC
EU EXEC. VP DOMBROVSKIS: SANCTIONS WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE ENERGY INDUSTRY.
GERMANY’S FINANCE MINISTER LINDNER: WE SHOULD ALSO TAKE STEPS TO PREVENT PUBLICLY TRADED INDIVIDUALS AND INSTITUTIONS FROM SHIFTING TO UNREGULATED DIGITAL ASSETS.
IOC PRESIDENT BACH: THERE HAS BEEN NO PLEDGE TO ELIMINATE RUSSIAN SANCTIONS IN THE EVENT OF A TRUCE OR A PEACE DEAL WITH UKRAINE.
THE US PLANS MEASURES TO HARM BELARUSIAN AND RUSSIAN DEFENCE SECTORS.
Russian Ministry of Defense publishes official numbers: 498 fallen soldiers, 1597 wounded
US DEMOCRAT OFFERS BILL THAT COULD LEAD TO TARIFFS ON RUSSIA GOODS.
GEORGIA PLANS TO SUBMIT BID TO JOIN EU ON MARCH 3 -TASS
RUSSIA’S LAVROV: OUR SOVEREIGNTY OVER CRIMEA IS NOT AN ISSUE FOR DISCUSSION AS IT IS PART OF RUSSIA
RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV SAYS THERE SHOULD BE A SET OF WEAPONS SPECIFIED THAT CAN NEVER BE DEPLOYED IN UKRAINE – IFAX
RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV SAYS MOSCOW’S AIM IS DEMILITARISATION OF UKRAINE BUT UKRAINIANS MUST DECIDE ON THEIR OWN LEADERS
UKRAINE’S PRESIDENT ZELENSKY: FOLLOWING MY CALL WITH PRES. OF EU COUNCIL MICHEL, I ANTICIPATE FAVOURABLE NEWS ON UKRAINE’S MEMBERSHIP BID.
BIDEN ON BANNING RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS: NOTHING IS OFF THE TABLE.
Into the close, likely a ramp. As for tomorrow, I would not bet on a peace agreement. Russia wants to replace the Ukranian govt and Zelensky wants power and will not give it up.
I had 20% weight in UVXY, SQQQ bear ETFs heading into the session. I closed them out, shifted a few things around, but generally speaking the market looks ok, with a very nice bias in the commodity space. I know the trade is crowded, but the underlying movements in the raw materials is keeping it going. At some point I’ll step aside, but not yet.
I’m at record highs now, up 11% for 2022, because I’m a profiteer of panic.
I’m purposely avoiding buying tech because if the news gets bad and the market smashed, those stocks will go down the hardest. By the end of day, I’ll throw on some hedges again, got to in a time when world war looms.
Now have a look at some other commodities and begin to think about how all this might play out should we go to war with Russia. Note: Russia is the main supplier in almost every single commodity.
Spot urea, MOP, SOP, potash all surging and supply in dire shortage since Belarus and Russia are main suppliers. While the west has big banks and nice clothing shops and makers of high tech gadgets, Russia has food, energy, steel, aluminum, fertilizer etc.
This isn’t going to be easy for Le West.
Expect a perfect storm of sorts to cause fertilizer stocks like MOS, LXU, NTR surge. This is just getting started, so do not take your eye off the ball and do not let occasional profit taking days dissuade you from bulking up on this entire complex.
BIDEN: ”A pound of Ukrainian people — proud, proud people, pound for pound, ready to fight with every inch of energy they have.” #SOTUpic.twitter.com/33YJ1L9T3k
"Let's pass the Paycheck Fairness Act and paid leave, raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour, and extend the child tax credit so no one has to raise a family in poverty," President Biden says. #SOTUpic.twitter.com/FgxMOb44AO
If you’re reading this post 1,000 years in the future, just know Joe Biden was our most popular man voted into the American presidency in history, receiving 81 million votes.
We’re just getting started. DO NOT BE FOOLED by the green, for it will be all fake and temporary. Your new existence in this bear market is sharply lower prices, followed up by government intervention, and then sharply lower prices.
Today global leaders of “The West” released 60 million barrels of crude into the open market. The result was WTI +10%.
It’s over.
I closed +50bps — because I do not fucking lose money in a bear market, not now not ever. It is my speciality.
Going into the State of the Union address, I am 90% invested, 20% of which are in short instruments, with directional longs heavily leaning into commodities.
Sure the trade is crowded and there is a chance we blow off top. But let’s be honest here, we are 100% going to war with Russia and soon all 10 million barrels of crude will be off the market and at your local gas station, SIR, you will pay $15.00 for a gallon of gas. All of this will happen to you and still — your government will not permit the Keystone pipeline to flow or to permit drillers to drill. They do this because they hate you, have for some time now, and yet you sit there thinking Russia is your enemy.
