Single Best Trade Idea: Long Long Bonds

Bear with me and please inflationistas out there do not throw tomatoes at this blog.

Rates are too god damned high. And it’s because of the higher rates, the specter of Fed action, that is causing tech and biotech to correct so severely. Just over the past month SAAS stocks and biotech too are down in the magnitude of 35%. This is plainly insane, but not without precedent.

What is the market pricing in?

In layman’s terms, slower growth. But we’ve been down this road before and at the first sight of slow growth the Fed changes a word in their statement and the whole market go bananas to the upside. The point being, there is a Fed put and that put demands LOWER interest rates. That’s just the way it has been.

Let’s offer a few scenarios for you to gameplan.

Markets careen lower on fears of stagflation. Do you really think oil is going to buck the trend up? That’s very rare and oil is sensitive to the economic winds, so to say. Admittedly, we are enduring a rather unique spate of inflation, which has been caused by the COVID lockdowns and stimulus. Nevertheless, it would be extremely rare for markets to tank and bonds not become an avenue of safety.

The other scenario s straight up. But how will SAAS and biotech bottom with rates pressuring higher? Moreover, how can the market do two things at once? Impossible.

The answer is simple: BOARD THE ARK, via TLT or TMF for leverage. I am 10% weighted in TMF now and to be honest I am liable to sell at any time. That still doesn’t mean the thesis isn’t true or should be followed.

On the other hand, out algorithms inside Stocklabs just tagged the biotech ETF XBI with a 30yr oversold tag. Lo and behold, we are at very historical levels of carnage in the biotech space and there will be a mean reversion trade to the upside with severity, rate or not.

There is an art to selling the open. If you sell at 9:30am exactly you’d get good prices. At around 9:35, the dips come and you get shaken out. If napping too long and you wake up at 9:50am, sometimes you’ll get the best prices of the day. If you’re holding past 10am you’re super aggressive and asking for trouble.

Today I sold all around 9:35am and booked a solid 53bps, which was half the gains I would’ve had if I sold in lightening fast speed at 9:30am. Immediately after I sold, we exploded higher. My gains might’ve been 200bps+. But my resolve to not chase was solidified and I vowed never to chase a 9:55am rally for as long as I live.

I have no idea what happens next. All I know is semis, oils and banks lead up while biotech and software plunge daily. Home builders are also strong today and I must admit being jealous of my own quantitative account in Stocklabs this month, which is easily crushing my trading account +400bps vs -275bps. The cold and calculated mechanical investment stratagem of the quant doesn’t care about the superfluous nature of selling at 9:30am vs 9:35am. It doesn’t care. Perhaps I need to mechanize myself and quit being so neurotic. But given the last few months in particular, I am especially risk averse and do not trust the market as far as I could throw it — which I can’t because it’s not a physical item I can pick up and toss.

This whole vaccine bullshit era has actually sown some pretty horrendous seeds in the biotech space, whereby everything but PFE is shattered into fucking pieces. The sector is behaving as if the entire human population is about to go extinct.

LOOK AT THE CHART ON THE 3X LEVERAGED BIOTECH ETF

We are in the midst of a torture, with exception to those heavily long commodities. The bare shelves in the grocery store and the tankage of US dominance and its currency has resulted in some fairly outsized gains in the oil/ag sectors. All tech and biotech have been harried into the ovens to be cooked by goblins and eaten at the open of trading every single day since March 2021.

I performed a great tragedy upon myself today, closing of course near the lows -180bps. I am simply not motivated enough and good enough to call myself a competent trader at this time. I ended up with sheer dicerolls of 3x upside ETFs and no hedges. It’s either going very well for me tomorrow or disaster. I have no reason at all to be so heavily long, other than relying on the fact that stocks had been down. That is not a reason to own stocks and I’ll need a miracle, or brief period of ebullition, to help me during the opening tick tomorrow.

Truth is, I was positioned perfectly last night, 20% long TZA and some stocks that did ok during the session. My proclivity to sell in the morning often works but when it doesn’t it gets really bad — because I usually chase in an effort to go green. My obstinance of not wanting to liquidate an account while red is what’s causing these gyrations and the idea of a rally is stuck in my head and I can’t shake it loose.

Basically, I have no idea what I’m doing today — long and short long and short — I am fucking grinding myself into flour to be baked and eaten by gluttons much smarter than me. If only I sold everything at 9:32am, I’d be sitting pretty now. But instead, I bought the open. Got raped, sold. Shorted — didn’t cover fast enough and now here I am both long and short in an incomprehensible amalgamation of nonsense designed to ensure losses.

I was +50bps and then flat. I worried a bit.

Then I swooned lower to -70bps after I bought open. That didn’t work so I did a little of this and that and next thing you know, slowly but surely, no matter what I did, I lost 10bps per hour all day long. I tried long oil, short biotechs, long SAAS, long volatility. It didn’t matter what I did because in the end, I was due to lose 10bps per hr and now sit with a fairly sizable loss of 1.65%.

I am tempted to do something big, but given my recent track record I will only make things inexorably worse.

Nice pop and drop and now what? We opened up with the idea that hope is possible and now we are bearing witness to civilization crumbling before our eyes.

My position was very secure, now not so much. I went from a handful of well performing stocks and a TZA hedge to no hedge and crashing stocks and now I have a TZA hedge again but it’s too late.

We are crestfallen and it is my error for believing in the bull. The tell was spiraling lower biotech stocks and now the blood is everywhere. I’ll be careful not to get whipsawed again.

Down 80bps early going.

Inspired by the world I now live in, I was thinking of ways to greatly increase the sales of Stocklabs, not because I’m interested so much in new yachts and fancy homes and cars, but because I want to solve the most important crisis in the world today: poverty.

With Stocklabs, no one has to be poor anymore. You can simply login and trade with the other clever members of the group and make outsized returns. The data is so good and concise, I managed to make 220% last year while sipping martinis and noshing on decadent sandwiches throughout the trading sessions. So with that in mind, here is my sales pitch to fellow VCs out there interested in the next big thing.

Let’s influence government officials via bribes and perhaps some extortion to not only promote Stocklabs to the masses, but also make sure they join the service in the name of financial health.

We can achieve this goal by mandating all citizens show their Stocklabs passes to get into plays and movie theaters, even restaurants and gyms — the works.

Also, and this is an important one, we’ll have news channels extol the virtues of me (Dr. Fly) and Stocklabs 24/7, featuring an array of financial experts who agree. We can then follow up these promotions with divisive editorials and social media posts maligning those who do not subscribe to Stocklabs as being “anti-finance” and threaten to take away their pensions and social security funds if they don’t “join up.”

The divisive part of the marketing is important — because there’s always going to be people who won’t join. By saying ‘it’s for the greater good’ we can immediately take the high road and paint non members as “selfish monsters” for potentially placing all of us in financial peril. Some will hate us, but on the whole many will cave and we expect to get at least 70% of the people to join.

One important vertical to expand our MRR will be the rollout of new features, “boosters” to the platform that if not purchased all but renders the original Stocklabs worthless. We can say stuff like “the market has changed and you need this new booster in order to be effective against this really tough tape.”

Another interesting market ploy would be to publicly announce how many accounts go to zero every day, maybe even leaking the actual names of the people who wiped themselves out and then send reporters to their homes to ask them how they felt and if they regretted not being members of Stocklabs. By doing this, we might convince fearful people to join, especially the financially weak and elderly — because who wants to lose their retirements accounts when a simple $59.95, sans boosters, might permit them to enjoy the normal benefits of their life savings?

Once we get everyone to sign up, there might always be a chance Stocklabs doesn’t make everyone money. If this should ever happen, we can blame it on the “tough market”, calling it “RARE”, and just roll out another booster. I’m thinking we can do this at least once per year, all subsidized by the government.

“ANTI-LABBERS” will be viewed on par with troglodyte misfits who eat their socks for lunch and are financially incapable of buying hot dogs from street vendors.

I’m really excited about this new business model and think we can make a big impact on the yachting community, not because we’ll all have new yachts or anything like that, but because those poor yachtsmen are in great financial peril and we can save them via our tonic.

I bore witness today and that’s about it. I re-entered the market late in the day and gave back 15bps and closed +35bps in an otherwise milquetoast and nothing to do session, amidst the cannon fire and depraved debauch celebratory lines of cocaine being both shared and enjoyed inside The Pelican Room.

What can I say? Sometimes you fuck and sometimes you get fucked and sometimes you don’t fuck at all.

I closed out fairly long with a 20% weight in TZA for a hedge.

Let’s see what tomorrow brings. As you can see, I am still scared.

Through sheer cowardice and sudden lack of desire to collect more currency, I am up just 41bps in a day where the market is handing out money like candy on halloween. A slew of stocks are up more than 10% and only the brave, or incredibly stupid, are being handsomely rewarded today.

Nevertheless, I have a plan for that too, which is why I have another account based on the Stocklabs ranking ecosystem and that is up 3% for the day. The plan was and continues to be it is invested without my opinions, just those of cold machines.

For me  the question is to chase or not to chase?

Of course the answer is chase, even though I could’ve taken a different obstinate rout here, pretending to all of you how disciplined I was and how I’d never buy into such scam wicks. The great part of getting older is you no longer have to bullshit yourselves. I know I’ll chase stocks going higher, even if it was the last thing I did. If I was on the verge of stroking out or suffering from some vaccine induced cardiac event, I’d probably delay my own death by several minutes just to get a fill on a recently hot Chinese burrito.

Speaking of which, Chinese stocks are very hot early going. I must’ve mentioned the research I did several times which demonstrated a proclivity for Chinese Burrito stocks to bottom during the month of January. Yet, as I look at BABA up massively from the lows, I find myself without any burritos. Funny how that happens.

Here’s another prediction. SAAS stocks will at some point reach another zenith of all time highs. Many will double from current prices.

Now you must be asking yourselves “if this is true, why doesn’t this lunatic just buy HUBS and call it a day?”

Because that would be too easy. My life wasn’t concocted in order to make it easy for me. Ergo, and this goes without saying, I’ll continue to trade and drive myself crazy all for the sake of cheap thrills and entertainment. Plus, I might make another 220% this year to boot for my troubles.

What a wonderful tape! The market looked dreamy for 3 mins and then collapsed like a sieve. But don’t worry, Chinese burrito stocks are strong and they’ll help us get to the promise land.

Nevertheless, I sold everything I owned at the open, locking in an 8bps gain, which I will now use to buy myself another yacht.

More importantly, and don’t forget, Stocklabs now permits free trials, cancel at any time. I tell you this now energetically because I am up 8bps for the day and figured you might want someone to help you replicate such grande returns.

I don’t like playing with a volatile tape like this, not because it’s hard. I’m able to trade it and make money, but at what expense? The stress levels it takes to perfect volatile trading is probably the greatest contributors to cardiac arrests outside the vaccine. I have a great blog planned for the vaccine which is of course fascinating to me and don’t want to ruin it now with spoilers. Let’s just say they have a great gig going with all the police and public shaming working for them around the clock to get them new customers.

If only I could do that with Stocklabs, I wouldn’t even have to worry about squandering my 8bps gain.

ALERT: WE ARE NOW OFFERING FREE TRIALS FOR Stocklabs (LIMITED TIME).

Sign up here plebs

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My morning fear was unfounded. The time to be scared is now, not then. Braver men than me stepped in early and really raped the tape. I more or less twiddled my thumbs all day, until I saw a clear push up and then allocated 100% long in a sundry of beaten down names. Although tempted to ride with these positions overnight, because who doesn’t love a great fairy tale? I was instead reminded of the countless and cruel tapes, whereby priors day rally was completely ignored and replaced with a cast of doom.

To be clear, I have no hedges now and am 69% cash — but I sold most of my stocks into the close because locking in a 75bps profit for the session never felt so good. There is an old saying and I always find it to be true, “one in the hand is better than two in the bush.”

I cannot for sure tell you how markets will open tomorrow. But what I do know now is we reversed a really bad correction and at the lows of the session — Stocklabs was 10 year oversold. To put that into perspective, we go back decades and backtest the technicals of the market based on our algorithms. The only time in history we have been OS on the 10yr algo was the bottom of 2020 COVID lows. Now you might think that to be crazy, but the algorithms do not have feelings and the short term carnage in the tape measured up to the very worst of markets, in decades.

Yes, down 20% in a week on the best software names in the world is on par with calamity.

If you survived THE GREAT CRASH of 2022, congrats. I’m not sure if the bottom is in, but I sure as hell am rooting for some easy trades.

Today’s afternoon trades.