Cruel Winter

I was hopeful midday and then lost all hope and quickly hedged up with a 20% position in TZA. With 15% cash, positions like D, EA, CHD and AXON, I am positioned defensively again into tomorrows tumult.

Early on inside Stocklabs we sported a RARE 10 year oversold signal on the IWM and then we bounced. The only time we ever had a 10 year oversold signal was during the COVID lows of 2020. We did not close OS on any main algos due to the small bounce; but in my estimation that bounce was toothless because it did not accompany SAAS. Without software stocks going up, we do not bottom.

SAAS closed down 1.2% after spiking green midday. The late rally was spearheaded by bullshit retail stocks and semis. Perhaps we bottom soon or perhaps this weakness causes us to heave over and spill out into the New Year’s starring margin liquidations, accounts barreling towards zero.

As for me, I will never lose money in a bad tape, as I am physically designed for this mood. I was up 0.81%, down from +1.35%. The hardest part about drawing down is accepting the gains you had were never yours, so you deal with the present and the future and forget about the past.

Can you do that?

I am, of course, being coy with that headline. The suggestion is since Cramer is triple vaccinated he never should’ve received a healthy dose of COVID-19, when in fact the science says the vaccine shall not inhibit your right to COVID nor your right to disseminate it. The vaccine, if you must know, is designed to save your life and prevent you from death.

Using this logic, one can deduce that only those unvaccinated face a perilous dark winter of death and sickness.

While we enjoy a nice winter plague, we also do wish all to recover and with that for Jim Cramer to become healthy and fully able to offer poor financial advice to the masses again. Even though Jim is pro forced vaccinations via military dictate, we do not offer him ill feelings or wish him bad tidings just because he prefers death and sickness to countless vaccine “collateral damage” persons in this war against the virus, the defining moment of our generation — our Normandy if you will.

Many salutations and warm regards. Try some chickened soup Jimbo!

I closed out my UVXY, TZA and LABD positions and kept two longs, MDB, DASH — because they’re up. I know the market could crash even lower, but I also know certainty is more valuable to me than maybe. We might crash even lower than the -580 right now, or we can lift from here. Hell, we might even bottom.

I’m just not that faithful to any of my positions and I’d prefer to hold two longs that are performing well in a horrible tape than a short that is up so much I risk giving up gains in the name of greed.

For now, 90% cash, up 80bps for the session.

DEVELOPING…

I have to head out soon so this must be brief. Over at House Fly, we have received several items via mail that were damaged and/or sizes too small or too big so now I am tasked with driving us to shopping malls and spending my day on long lines inside denizens of criminality that has resulted in several shootouts the past few years.

In regards to this market, I would argue CRM is the best stock to represent SAAS. Being the biggest and the best in terms of execution, CRM has moved from the comic books of the stock underworld to becoming a Dow 30 component. In recent weeks, like many software stocks, it has been destroyed.

But this isn’t the first time CRM has been destroyed in December. It’s sort of a tradition.

data provided by Stocklabs

That chart represents all of the monthly returns for CRM since it IPOs — only June and December posted negative returns.

Look at the losses.

And now look at January.

There is no guarantee CRM will bounce back sharply in January. In 2016 it took until March to see the stock turning around and I would imagine many people gave up hope in the name. When faced with a situation like this, your best course of action is to dollar cost average. Do not overweight any long term position more than 10% of your portfolio, but keep it above 5%. So if the stock dips and the weighting is down to 4%, feel free to add to it, bringing it back over 5%. If you’re feeling adventurous, bring it up to 8%. If it dips again, the following month buy more and continue to do this until the stock recovers and propels your weighting over 10%, at which point you will then pare it down to under 8%.

This method is intended to be used for good companies with big market caps, not for your bullshit penny stocks without revenues.

Look at me. I am a Master Ace Trader (MAT) and curve balled my way in and out from stocks today to close +108bps on the session. There were plenty of false starts and fucked up narratives, but I dealt. Today was all about small caps, sharply higher for IWM but fucked for the large caps. This is a tactic used by them for MAXIMUM RAPE, since barely anyone was positioned for this.

I do not think there’s a chance in hell this will repeat come Monday, so I hedged via TZA. I also hedged via UVXY for the unexpected splash onto the pavement and a little LABD against my longs. My longs, for the most part, are of the gentleman varietal.

For the most part, Le Fly has been busy binge watching Yellowstone and now considers himself to be a cowboy. I will need a hat, stirrups and horse to go with my open cary colt 45. Perhaps I will move from NC to Texas now, or maybe Montana, to truly become a cowboy — learn to rope and hang people who look at me sideways — real wild West shit.

Stocklabs is going to extend its dick into 2022 via tools for options. These tools will only be available for pro users and we shall use the advice of our members to create this feature. Aside from that, we have been very busy fixing bugs and that has kept us from adding new features and enhancements. But we’re done and will quickly start to both amaze and stun our members with grandiose eloquence.

At any rate, my daughter is in from Boston and the holidays loom. I am finished with Xmas shopping and can now fuck off while the holidays come and go and everyone satiates themselves with food and drink. I am eagerly awaiting RENEWED COVID LOCKDOWNS, as NYC is racked with the infirmed and its citizenry deteriorate into mobile morgues because they just weren’t vaccinated enough times. To think some of you selfish son of a bitches have only vaccinated twice, when in fact, the science says you need to continue to vaccinate in order to fight the virus in order to get back to normal and to enjoy the trappings of life, such as movies and restaurants, cruise ships and theater. But no, you refuse to simply JAB YOURSELVES for the benefit of all, most likely because you’re all QANON retards who believe in conspiratorial theories derived from the internet, instead of heeding the sage advice of doctors and scientists.

Our heroes.

Greetings and salutations.

In the morning trade I covered my shorts and flipped many of my positions only to re-buy many of them and many other SAAS stocks and now sit +85bps for the session. This is all we get, a meager +0.9% on the IWM for Xmas.

Although I’d like to feel good about it I suspect we could get raped by the bell. Breadth is an ABYSMAL 18% for tera caps and 68% for small caps, meaning if you weren’t long small caps today you’re hammered to dust. Moreover, this means most hedge funds and investors are down and the weakest of hands are making coin today.

Do you trust these people into the weekend?

I did so many trades in so many directions today my head is spinning. I ranged from 1pm on from -2.3% to -3.2%, until I closed out my shorts and went 4x TNA into that little rally. I closed it out and my losses lessened to 1.8% before sinking again to -2.3% at the close. Today was entirely self inflicted and now I ride into tomorrow, in what I view as a very bad tape, exposed long with hedges but not enough to withstand a major shift lower.

We are tenuously ebbing towards perdition and the only thing that keeps it from hastening is hope.

Both TZA and UVXY now make up 25% of my holdings, in a portfolio 101% invested. Coverage from those inverses should, in theory, negate any appreciable downside in the market. However, given the heart attack drops happening now, I doubt even that heavy exposure should withstand a selling barrage.

Into a rally, I’m guessing I stand to make 0.6-1.3% by the open, providing VIX doesn’t implode. VIX should, again in theory, hold up due to people clamoring for protection. We’ll see.

I closed mid month -2.2% for December so far.

What a moron. I just sold out the rest of my TZA and have loaded up on longs, literally in the hopes of being rescued by some mystical majestic force that will make stocks stop going down and instead enjoy respite from the hours of 2pm-4pm.

This of course is not likely to occur and I will instead RACK myself with more losses. I have negated yesterday’s gains and am now working on increasing my losses as the marker churns out and burns participants.

There is cable snapped elevator drops in many tech stocks, the smaller the worst. Because of this, ingeniously, I have stepped in here for a possible upside move in SAAS. Software stocks once revered as holy and infallible are now the bane of the market and subject to violent downside action on just about any time scale.

There is a BIGLY COVID breakout in NYC — “the worst ever” and we are going to shut down soon — so get ready for that pin action — fucked face.

Why is this happening?

It’s winter you stupid shits. The flu is worse without the sun small plebs. Go take some vitamin D.

History will never know what happened here, only the people who traded. Just like I can vividly recall certain periods of time and how semis fucked me hard in Jan of 2004, so will you know that when the market as a whole did very little for December of 2021, this also happened.

England tightened today, causing everything to get up-ended and ADBE is crashing lower post earnings — taking with it SAAS. I made the foolish mistake of SELLING MY TZA AND UVXY HEDGES at 7am and have watched markets go lower from then. I didn’t sell the open, but instead gawked and ignored and made believe it wasn’t happening until I had to be a BIG BOY and stop hiding from under my desk and deal with the situation, locking in 2.3% of losses. I have since reacquired some TZA and SOXS. On the whole, it was a very stupid thing to do. I thought we’d have a ripper thanks to copper up 3%. What I did not realize was this wasn’t a ripper but a commodity isolated rally and tech would soon be destroyed. Thanks to my diverse holdings, I have some commodity plays — but not enough.

Bottom line: I blew it and will need to be methodical now. I rarely get +260bps in upside these days because markets simply do not rip like it did yesterday and I rarely take outsized risk, so now it’s probably back to 30-80bps moves.