CIVILIAN EVACUATION OF DONETSK UNDERWAY

Let’s be perfectly clear about something. It is not an illusion that Russia has 150,000 soldiers on the Ukraine border and it’s not pretend that the soldiers in Belarus and surrounding areas are in staging formations for an attack on Ukraine. It is not “fake news” that Russia has moved more than 50% of his eastern district military units to the west for “training exercises” and it is not a fiction to see violence ebbing up in Eastern Ukraine, followed up with a coincidental appeal for independence.

It is also not imaginary that sirens are going off in Donetsk to evacuate civilians in the area.

DONETSK BEING EVACUATED OF CIVILIANS pic.twitter.com/VR8DFiJ3DR

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 18, 2022

Markets were supposed to gap up on news the US-Russia would meet for talks next week; but here we are barreling lower on all this non-imaginary news.

People are so psyoped due to years of fake news and misinformation that they do not believe things, even when they see it with their own eyes. This doesn’t mean Russia will 100% invade Ukraine and that the worst case scenario will play out. However, I think it’s worth bearing in mind that it’s possible. Don’t take people at their word, even the holier than thou Putin, whom people only like because he appears to be a straight shooters and doesn’t ascribe to lunatic levels of western wokeness. At the end of the day, he is a leader of Russia, not the world, and he is only looking out for the best interests of Russians, not retards from Nebraska angry at the Democrats, wanting Hillary Clinton in jail..

Sir —

If I am disintegrated tonight amidst Russian mushroom clouds of joy, I’d like to tell you its been an honor coming here blogging like the wind all these days. We have been through a lot and I am sooooooo happy to have quit my 7 fig money management gig in favor of this — an ad-less site sparsely visited, software platform filled with degenerates. This is the life.

As we heave and ebb towards perdition, I have given you everything I have. Whether that’s of value to you is subjective and my style isn’t for everyone, especially day trader Fly with an attention span of 10 mins. However, I would like to highlight a salient point in all this geopolitical melodrama, we are entirely, as a nation, to blame. No sense is beating ourselves up about it now as we will soon be forced into allegiance and observant of the weaklings who’ve gotten us here and placed in a position of serfdom — ancient rituals for ancient folks. The game is always the same and I apologize for being cryptic — but I like my bank and I want to keep it.

I closed the session +100bps, off from the highs but still solid. I am short banks, long volatility, long oils, gold and even 1 biotech with 38% cash reserves.

Now I must admit to you I am a bit of a pessimist. It’s something I picked up young, a defense mechanism that keeps me from being let down and disappointed. But at the same time, I can honestly tell you beneath all of the hubris and the shit-talking and inappropriate behavior, I am incredibly empathetic and must tell you I do not want to see people die. War is a horrible business and I hope I am wrong about reading the tea leaves and I hope I lose money on my positioning if it means people didn’t have to die in combat.

Alas, this is the nature of man — the evolutionary spirit that binds us to violence and forces us to resolve differences through kinetic means.

Tomorrow is Friday so of course we are already facing a steep hill to climb. The only news that could be viewed as positive tonight is an acceptance between Russia and the US to a summit, to discuss the recent events over a nice cold bowl of borscht.

I have a few very solid hunches here.

1. Russia is going to invade Ukraine.

2. Oil will spike, alongside potash.

3. Gold will finally get its safe haven status.

4. Stocks will fall.

5. The Fed will not have to tighten too much because stagflation will crush the economy.

6. Treasuries will also receive safe haven status.

It seems the Russians are intent on doing something in the Ukraine, not sure exactly how it happens but it’s likely to occur. If they do not attack Ukraine, then some premium will be removed from Natty and Oil. But that will be transitory.

The other stuff is pretty standard except for gold. Is gold, dare I say, be trying to bust loose here?

Let’s be clear. One does not compare gold to BTC. That’s stupid. Gold has been a terrific safe haven for storing value. There can be no question about it. With Russia steaming towards war and US threatening to hit them with severe sanctions, perhaps gold will somehow play a larger role in Russia? Unsure, other than the fact that Russia owns 7500 tonnes of gold.

This tape is ugly and there are few safe havens, but there has been stabilization in various defensive areas.

The rest of the tape has been chewed up and spit out — completely useless assets other than to gamble with and I can see no valid reasons to buy tech down 50% while posting numbers and sinking another 20-50% on earnings shortfalls.

I had a nice blend of VIX and other things working today and at the peak saw my gains at 1.8% and the an array of cross currents took the market all over the place, from shippers to gold to Chinese stocks and to and out of oils. It was too much and because I had gains, mostly thanks to my big position in UVXY — I decided to close it all out, save one oil stock.

With a lull in news, there is a distinct chance we can gun higher intra-day. I would rather not bet on it or against it, so instead I will choose to position for tomorrow.

Plainly, the market WANTS higher, but these news items are in the way. Let’s not even discuss the earnings reports which keep coming out bad. It does not matter. All that matters is the price action after the fact and we are buoyed all the time by tera-cap monopolies. The rhetoric out of Russia is war like, literally.

Russia 'will be forced to respond, including with military-technical measures,' if no US security guarantees: Russian foreign ministry *

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 17, 2022

It seems the market digested it and now is calling Russia’s bluff. It’s 11am and how we end at 4pm is all that matters. For now, I am out.

Last night violence broke out in Eastern Ukraine with Russia quickly saying it was Ukraine’s fault and it seems awfully coincidental with Russia soldiers teeming on the border.

UKRAINE DENIES SHELLING SEPARATISTS' POSITIONS IN EAST UKRAINE

— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) February 17, 2022

The big news this morning is the expulsion US Ambassador from Russia and the likelihood we will now expel the Russian Ambassador. These are typically things that happen before war.

Russia expels American diplomat Bart Gorman – RIA

NASDAQ FUTS -130

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 17, 2022

Putin is also in preparation to make a speech to the Russian parliament and the rhetoric on both sides could not be more intense.

Sec Blinken is en route to the UN and then Germany. He knows plenty about Ukraine, being of Ukrainian descent and founder of private equity firm Warburg Pincus. This all has the feeling of being over our heads — a narrative is being played out here that is not what it seems and I can promise you this — our interests in Ukraine have nothing to do with democracy.

NASDAQ futs are -123, not really a big move down considering the drama.

US Defense Secretary said Russia inching troops closer to Ukraine, stocking up on blood supplies. He adds that "I was a soldier myself not that long ago. I know firsthand that you don't do these sorts of things for no reason"

VAMPIRES ON THE MOVE ***

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 17, 2022

?????Lukashenko: Americans must admit that they have worthless intelligence.

— Ukraine War Report (@UkrWarReport) February 17, 2022

It should be noted, BTC is not behaving defensively but gold is and I would think oil would jimmy higher but it’s not. I do not believe the market is pricing in the gravity of the situation, with VIX up just 7%. This all could be solved easily if NATO would just say “Ukraine cannot join NATO.” But they won’t.

Instead they say this.

Ukraine has the sovereign right to seek NATO membership, to choose its course.

We will not guarantee otherwise to Russia.

— Emily Haber (@GermanAmbUSA) February 16, 2022

Why?

I made you a chart to look at. It is GUSH, the leveraged oil stock ETF, which was my fate today. I was long so many oil stocks and ag stocks and gold stocks and military stocks to go with my hedges. I was all loaded up, General Faggot Patton in the PR serving up bombs.

To be clear, by 12pm I knew I was cursed. I knew no matter what I did it would go wrong. I could be both long and short at once and both would decline and that’s exactly what happened. Longs down, shorts down and I closed at my session lows -2.1%. Today was even worse than yesterday, a day which I opened -3.5% only to rally back to -1.6%. Today was a larger loss and a more severe loss mentally, since it seemed the market was my shadow and it cursed me at every corner and in every alleyway I looked. I am now down 1% for the year, after blazoning ahead last week +13%. I am also down more than 5% this week and the pit in my stomach is turning tight and I can feel the anxiety and the stress mount — with all of the cross- current news items and wild gyrations in the tape. It’s also worth documenting here, there was news in this oil trade before the news hit, if you know what I mean. ALL DAY the oils were getting hit and it made no sense with WTI +3%. Yet methodically and then all at once, it collapsed on some stupid fucking Iran-nuclear deal to come. No fucking idea what that means — but likely Iranian oil back on the market. Biden seems to love sucking Persian cocks.

What next?

I ended the session a true moron, long 3x UVXY and some SOXL, LABU and MOS, a plainly stupid combination which should amuse you to know ALL CLOSED DOWN for me except MOS — since I bought that 2 mins before the bell.

Today could not have been worse even if I tried. It was so bad, I am thinking about not trading for the rest of the week — because -1% for the year isn’t bad all things considered. But what is bad is my mental state, furious and frustrated at the state of things, prone to error and poor choices.

No idea what’s going on here but scam wicks are everywhere. The news can be construed as flaccid, Fed faggots concerned with asset prices suggests if markets drop they’ll suck our dicks.

FOMC "The staff judged that asset valuation pressures remained elevated. In particular, the forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index stood at the upper end of its historical distribution"

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 16, 2022

Lots of headlines, mostly useless. People just wanted to rally.

In more concerning news is the Russian-Ukraine drama.

US STATE DEPARTMENT: MORE RUSSIAN FORCES, NOT FEWER, ARE ON THE UKRAINIAN BORDER, AND THEY ARE MOVING INTO COMBAT POSITIONS, WHICH IS CONCERNING.

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 16, 2022

Which way do you go? Do you buy into the rally or run from it, scared Russia will attack tonight! LOL — fuck this shit.

Just when I thought Russia wasn’t going to attack there are reports the Russians are building a field hospital near Ukraine.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RUSSIAN MILITARY BUILDING FIELD HOSPITALS NEAR UKRAINE BORDER AREA -NATO

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 16, 2022

Couple that with the fact that no one can verify actual Russian withdrawal from the area, we have a game of chicken and perhaps deception taking place. Would the Russians really lie about invading Ukraine in such a manner that would make their word useless in the future? I don’t expect them to tell us if they were or not, but perhaps saying nothing would suffice. Maybe a SURPRISE ATTACK when everyone expects it? I don’t see the logic in this anymore. Nevertheless, we have markets on edge and oil and gas prices elevated.

I entered the session +130bps now sit with losses of 70bps after a swift drawdown in my oil stocks. The equity portion of this oil trade isn’t doing as fanciful as the commodity today; hence the drawdown. I would prefer to make money on days when the underlying commodity is up and I understand nothing can go up forever — BUT FOR FUCKS SAKE THROW ME A BONE YOU COCKSUCKING PIECE OF SHIT MARKET!

The White House is non stop with their RUSSIA IS GONNA ATTACK SOON rhetoric and it’s all so very tiring. The war hasn’t even begun and I am fatigued.

Shares of SHOP are down 17% after posting what appeared to be solid results. But that was’t good enough. The also suggested growth would slow in 2022 due to an end of the COVID era lockdowns.

Year-over-year revenue growth to be lower in the first quarter of 2022 and highest in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to three factors. First, we do not expect the COVID-triggered acceleration of ecommerce in the first half of 2021 from lockdowns and government stimulus to repeat in the first half of 2022. Second, our new terms with apps and theme developers cause two differences from last year’s first quarter: the elimination of Shopify’s rev share on partners’ first million dollars of revenue annually reset on January 1st, and the shift from gross to net revenue recognition for the sale of themes as a result of revised contract terms with our theme partners. Since these terms didn’t come into play until the second half of last year, these will be a headwind to Subscriptions Solutions revenue in the first half of 2022, particularly in the first quarter. And third, we expect certain commercial initiatives and sales and marketing investments will gain momentum over the course of 2022.

We have seen this story play our painfully the past year, as once high flyers come crashing back down to earth. It started with ZM and DOCU and now its hitting the online stores like AMZN, SE, and SHOP. The basis for valuation is simple. What were the pre-covid price to sales and where are they now?

SHOP is now trading 21x sales, even with the stock CUT IN HALF in 2022. In 2018, the shares were valued at 18x. There’s your line in the sand. Another 10-15% lower from here and perhaps a bottom gets put in, providing the economy doesn’t fall apart.

SE is already trading at 2018 valuations and ZM is below it.

The fact normalcy is creeping back into the economy is of course good news and we’d like to see people going out again, eating out, going on trips. I suspect once the lunatics remove all of their restrictions for vaccines — we might see a true revival in GDP. Until then, restrictions are abound and people would rather not shop online anymore. Perhaps they’ve gotten sick of it and want to hide their money under their mattresses? Or, maybe just maybe the wealth effect of runaway stocks and cryptos has truly reversed, given the negative returns, and discretionary income amongst the dumbest people on the planet is now lacking.

I am fairly certain, based upon these comments out of Russia that they do not intend to invade crazily like we feared a short while ago.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova: "A request for US and UK disinformation outlets Bloomberg, NYT, The Sun etc: please publish the timetable of our 'invasions' for the coming year. I'd like to plan my holidays."

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 16, 2022

If they did, it would suggest a scorched earth stratagem of total war against the west and I doubt they’d want that.

And then there’s this.

RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESWOMAN SAYS UNITED STATES IS TRYING TO GRAB EUROPEAN GAS MARKET SHARE FROM RUSSIA – TASS

Since the conflagration with Russia, US shipment of LNG to Europe have soared.

The US supplied 24% (4.2 Bcm) of the EU’s overall LNG imports (17 Bcm in Q1 2021); Russia placed second at 21% (3.7 Bcm); and Qatar was third at 18% (3.1 Bcm)

US LNG SHIPMENTS TO EUROPE

It appears the US, for the first time in 60 years, is the largest exporter of natural gas to Europe and Russia isn’t too happy about this, since this is their bread and butter. The main play for LNG is LNG, but there are many others.

Here’s my LNG watchlist inside Stocklabs.

Bottom line: The economy is the main hangover for stocks now, probably not World War 3. We have bad inflation, a hawkish Fed, and the 30 year mortgage rates above 4% while prices are at record highs. The tightrope we are attempting tp navigate is treacherous and will likely lead to a housing collapse, at some point in the future.