MARKETS SHATTERED INTO THE CLOSE AS AMERICA RACES TO WAR WITH RUSSIA

DO NOT BE FOOLED!

We have disconnected entirely from Russia. Every company, every organization — all ties cut. This is the groundwork needed to engage in military conflict and you’ll be drafted into the army or else face financial ruin and prison. You won’t have a choice see — because 1 billion allies are now aligned against Russia and if you’re Putin there is only one escape route made available — FULL ACCELERATION.

They will enact a military draft in Russia first, call up 20 million men, and this will be mirrored in Europe and then here in the states. By next year we will be in total war with Russia — all thanks to a small minority of people who sought to milk the ancestral lands of Ukraine for all of its value. The very idea of Russia reclaiming what once belonged to them is enough for America to go to war with them, let alone seeing them invade and ruin all of the things we did there since 2014.

Nevertheless, America is sending $10b to Ukraine in emergency funding — but didn’t have anything for a border wall in the south. They are also facilitating Polish Migs to Ukraine in exchange for our F-16s — because nothing says diplomacy like trying to take back the skies over Kiev.

The Ukraine is now a holy battlefield and Moloch is getting his blood sacrifices by the pound and will be getting a lot more in the coming weeks, months, and years to come. You will remember this post in the future and reflect upon how it all went wrong. It went wrong a long time ago — captured state — and now we’re paying for it with our treasure and very soon our lives.

If you’re long without hedges here — you’re out of your god damned mind.

"Today our president (the most important one, Barak Obama) promised that we'll joint NATO (as an American henchman). Please send copies of 'Mein Kampf', it's sold out here"

Zelensky, making fun of Banderastan pic.twitter.com/CPfhqpvvFQ

— sanctions kill people ?????????????? (@krungthepkaki) March 8, 2022

This is the day “the west” decided to have armed conflict with Russia.

POLISH FOREIGN MINISTRY: AT THE SAME TIME, WE ARE REQUESTING THAT THE US PROVIDE POLAND USED AIRCRAFT WITH THE CORRESPONDING OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES.

POLAND: READY TO TRANSFER ALL ITS MIG-29 PLANES TO RAMMSTEIN

Russia had stated if any nation sent jets to Ukraine they would consider it an act of war. Let’s stop pretending we do not see what is taking place here — America clamoring for Russian blood and have been for a long long time. This is their chance to see it though — irrespective of what people might think about it.

The Dow was +500 and now we are +50. Anyone’s guess where we land at the close. I sold my bullish bets, bulked up on UVXY and commodity plays, still bogged for nearly 2% for the session.

The rhetoric is extremely high. I went out to walk my dogs long materials and up 1.7% and came back to losses of 1%. My Quant, which is mostly oils, was +4% and is now flat to down. The news was/is Zelensky might not want to beg too much for NATO inclusion. It isn’t really a major news item, but markets ran hard on it and now we’re sort of flatlining here waiting for another pivot point.

I had to reset my day and make some long directional trades, only to slightly worsen my position — now down 1.35%.

And this news just hit.

PUTIN DECIDES TO BAN THE EXPORT OF PRODUCTS AND RAW MATERIALS OUTSIDE THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION UNTIL DECEMBER 31

The idea this is going to be clean and neat is absurd. We are here celebrating victory over Russia because we got Mcdonald’s and PayPal to stop doing business there. Meanwhile, we just choked ourselves off from natural resources. Everyone loses.

How this ends up at the end of day is anyone’s guess. Text book says we rally since such an upside reversal is often met with short covering.

We are seeing precious metals STEAM higher now with gold +3.6% and silver +6.3%. Perhaps the great talked about SILVER SQUEEZE is finally happening. We have outsized moves in all miners, double and triple digit moves in a wide pastiche of oils and materials. I have been trading all morning, now +1.7% for the session and that’s very conservative compared to some of the returns of the traders in Stocklabs.

This is a hyperbolic market with parabolic moves and it will continue, as we heave over and collapse.

I am keeping a FAZ hedge — because financial collapse can happening at anytime.

True, these are feelings and much of my analysis is based off anecdotal experience trading my whole life, so take it with a grain of salt. But the mood is dark and grim and if you’re hoping for SAAS stocks to turn up, you might be waiting a long time.

There is a rush for materials, solar, alternative energy sources, oils, frackers, and even coal.

More later.

Our dear good friends the fucking Ukrainians. Oh dear Ukrainians. I am more than willing to pay $10-20 per gallon for gasoline just so they can undertake war against Russia — because their interests are mine and mine not so much theirs. It’s so important in this time of pain and suffering that we take the Ukrainian flag and place it in our profiles and make statements like “the poor Ukrainians — how are thou?”

BIDE TO PLACE A BAN ON RUSSIAN CRUDE TODAY

Shell to stop all Russian oil and gas purchases, apologizes for buying shipment after Ukraine invasion

WTI is north of $125 and all the world can think about now is — how can war with Russia be most profitable? We went from BLM riots and burning cities to COVID vaccines and fired over medical status to a world war with Russia. Make no mistake about it, we are at war with Russia and all of the trimmings that come with it will soon rear its disgusting head. Aside from soaring commodities, we now have soaring rates — with the 10yr now +11bps to 1.85%

I’m going to slow down my trading and the size in which I keep my exposure. I think the easy money in commodities has been made and it might be time to be risk averse again.

CARLSON: WE LIVE IN A COUNTRY OF MORAL PANICS
pic.twitter.com/lM6lzW7i1p

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 8, 2022

CARLSON: AMERICAN POLITICIANS WANT WAR WITH RUSSIA
pic.twitter.com/8TKUJDjJDl

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 8, 2022

CORRECTION: After the natives went wild at the Goro Nickel mine in New Caledonia, VALE sold it in 2021 to PRONY RESOURCES. Ergo, VALE is not the nickel play I thought it was.

Fun fact: VALE owns the nickel mines in New Caledonia — who is the chief supplier of nickel to Tesla for their batteries. On the whole, the EV sector will be in tumult with Russian supply off-line.

New Caledonia has roughly 25% of the world’s nickel supply and with Russian sanctions locking them out from every place but China — it stands to reason the price for electric cars are going to skyrocket soon — given the recent squeeze in Nickel.

EV batteries require lithium, graphite, cobalt, lithium, manganese and nickel.

Any company possessing those materials will be bid up in the coming days, weeks, and months to come.

It’s 100% over — but I still bought SHOP, CRM, and SE today. Old habits die hard and although today’s feverish rally was in basic materials — SHIT OILS popping 50-100% a piece today — I ended up saving my session with a 15% UVXY position. My gains weren’t ribald, more of the genteel nature +1.42%. My quant gained 2.3%.

This bodes well for me, especially with the NASDAQ collapsing 500 points of pure agony. I was a believer in peace at the open, but no more. Never believe in peace, only war.

So as we ebb towards inevitably — keep note that we have weaponized the dollar and all of our corporations against Russia — whom we deem as our enemy. No emerging market in their right mind will want to be in our system any longer. It’s now us and Europe vs the world. Perhaps it works out for us — but the global growth story that kept us nice and safe, knitted together, is dead.

For weeks commodity FAGS have enjoyed the splendor of sharply higher commodity prices which have helped shares propel to new highs. Today we had a blow off top, likely due to the trade being crowded by fucking hot money meme-retard imbeciles. Now that Reddit has entered the trade, it has since turned into shambles.

STAGGERING LOSSES OFF SESSION HIGHS pic.twitter.com/PU1ciYIysH

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 7, 2022

Nickel is +73% and this has brought me into the rabbit hole of nickel production. Pro tip: we don’t have any. All of it is mined in Asia, or most of it, and of course Russia. There is a French colony off the coast of Australia named New Caledonia that mines so much of it — the people who live there are rich. Naturally the aboriginals are subjugated to squalor whilst the Europeans eat the finest France has to offer — but we do not care about human rights any longer in a time of war.

I do not think the commodity trade is dead. However, it might pause or pull back for a week in order to destroy all of the hot money in them now. Nevertheless, the prices of raw commodities will continue to go up because Russia.

My Quant for March is mostly oil and was +5% earlier today and is now only +40bps. My trading account was +2%, left more than 2% off potential gains, only to trade my way into giving back 140bps and now stand up just 0.6% for the session.

But I am grateful.

I am 65% cash, 15% weighted in UVXY with some tech and 1 commodity stock and a whole lot of patience. The safe havens are few and this is one of those days you might want to sit out until after 3:30pm.

Typical narcissism at play in my trading this morning. Since I was hot and +30% over the past two weeks, I literally thought every move I’d make would be gold — even if it was counter-trend. At the open I sold my winners, all in oils and ag and volatility and went long SHIT: semis, bios, SAAS.

The result?

Instead of making another 2% on my holdings, with just 15% long in those fucking placed I have back almost HALF my daily gains. I have since acquiesced and admitted being stupid, sold them, and hence replaced them with some materials — still 85% cash.

Knowing myself, it’s probably best I do not trade for the rest of the session. I am liable to whip-saw myself and endure pink levels at 10000,0000% and above, causing me to lose money in a session where I should’ve minted.

My best play here is to position in what’s working at the end of session and then just fuck off and hope for the best. It’s awfully discouraging to see a good streak end in such a fashion, selling what you love and buying what you hate just for the sake of trying to be right and a little too coy.

Fuck off Fly!

I booked my gains this morning, a little bittersweet since I was +5% and only ended up with +2%. I had 20 positions and most of them green and some of them ran after I sold them — but there’s no fucking crying in trading. You make your bed and then you sleep in it. Sure, I could’ve been +5% for the session had I sold in the pre-market. I also didn’t have to get long tech and biotech after I sold my commodities and UVXY — but I did that too.

Markets are now careening lower and for good reasons; but I happen to be on the bullish side of the trade now because I am betting on a Russia-Ukrainian peace agreement. Why would I do such a thing? No idea, other than to suggest that such a deal exists somewhere in the ether and it’s their job to figure it out.

My gains have been reduced to +1.5% on this downturn in markets — with the NASDAQ now -100.

NEVERTHELESS, I will not cry and I also will not stubbornly hold onto this trades for the sake of being proven right.

I am 85% cash, now +18.1% for 2022.