ESCALATION: FRANCE SEIZES RUSSIAN CARGO SHIP; GERMANY SHIPS WEAPONS TO UKRAINE

We grew up watching Hitler the villain movies, glorifying the allied victories of war and as boys growing up pretended to do combat, in a similar vein. We’d play countless video games of war, told America was the good guys, and now we’re adults and seeing what could potentially be the start of another industrial sized war and creating memes to make light of it — doing polls to gin up war promotion and casting out the new Hitler, Putin, so far out that the only reasonable expectation here is for total war.

Here are the relevant headlines for today so far:

The Netherlands to send 200 anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine

FRANCE SEIZES RUSSIAN CARGO SHIP; RUSSIAN EMBASSY IN FRANCE AWAITS EXPLANATION

China announces “military exercises” in the South China Sea across a 6-nautical-mile-radius from Sunday to Tuesday

SENIOR PENTAGON OFFICIAL: WE DELIVERED A BATCH OF DEFENSE AID TO UKRAINE TWO DAYS AGO

Germany agrees to send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles to help Ukraine

BIDEN: “THE ALTERNATIVE TO SANCTIONING RUSSIA TO PUNISH IT FOR ITS INVASION OF UKRAINE WOULD BE THE START OF A THIRD WORLD WAR”

Top Russian official’s government plane turned back mid-air by Sweden and Finland

UKRAINE’S PRESIDENT ZELENSKY: I AM GRATEFUL TO EVERYONE FOR THE MOVE TO CUT RUSSIA OFF FROM SWIFT.

Do you see where this is going?

And then we have the pro-war Neo-liberal movement in America showing bullshit polls where an astonishing 77% of people want World War 3.

The war party have successfully completed another marketing campaign for more American war pic.twitter.com/hTjbcchV0q

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 26, 2022

Do you sons a bitches even think this shit through? I bet you all think it’s a game and how this war to be fought will not touch you — but it will. They have ICBMs that penetrate air defense systems you stupid son of a bitches.

But anyway, I suppose this is where we were heading all along. For decades Russia has been the villain and then in 2016 they “hacked” our election, so now because of reasons not to be discussed — tens of millions of people will have to die. People will never really know what happened here, when the books are written and school curriculums adjusted to fit this narrative.

I can’t wait to see the news stories about disproportionate body counts amongst people of color and the new neoliberal movement in America demanding more white people be placed on the front lines to get those numbers up.

Market analysis: sell.

What more can I say, other than Wall Street speculators, my ilk, are a bunch of immoral mountebanks always hunting for opportunity, especially during periods of human suffering. I’ve seen this play out so many times, from floods, to hurricanes, to wars, to pandemics. Investors, mind you, do not care about suffering. All they care about is how the event will affect business. This is a fact of life that is perhaps bereft of grace, but part of the human condition.

The NASDAQ has jumped 650 points since Russia invaded Ukraine. We could not get a rally going the whole year and all of a sudden — BAM — fantastic returns.

YTD the Nasdaq is down 13%. Le Fly is +4% — because he is a professional and endures the test of time. While many gurus have come and gone during my tenure at iBankCoin — I remain a stoic constant — here during the good times and also the bad.

The news out of Europe is increasing in seriousness by the hour and I really do fear we are on the verge of global conflict. The words and actions taking place now is setting the groundwork for escalation. As such, I closed the session heavily long commodities and heavily short via TZA and long volatility via UVXY.

One fact of life is my +12.5% gains for Feb, which in turn provides me with room to explore higher degrees of risk. The reason I was able to gain 200% last year was because of my very large gains early on in 2021, providing me with the leeway to express myself to my fullest. During the second part of 2021 my gains were muted because markets had changed and I went into defense mode — aiming for preservation of capital.

In my opinion, the current environment is ripe for speculation and increased risk is worth the shot, especially when exploring long bets in oil, gas, grains, coal etc. Also, because of the rally, there is opportunity to short stocks, based off the backdrop of a weakening economy racked with inflation and slowing growth.

This is beginning to get a little more than serious, especially with this backdrop.

RUSSIA SAYS IF FINLAND OR SWEDEN JOIN NATO THERE WILL BE “DETRIMENTAL” MILITARY CONSEQUENCES pic.twitter.com/fYHhZ2Bj0n

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 25, 2022

Here are some more than concerning headlines:

Biden admin presented China with intelligence on Russia’s troop buildup in hopes Xi would step in. Chinese officials rebuffed the U.S. and apparently shared the information with Moscow.

PUTIN: AMERICAN ADVISORS HAVE ENCOURAGED UKRAINE FORCES TO USE CIVILIANS AS SHIELDS

NATO Head Stoltenberg – Cyberattacks “can trigger Article 5”.

Italian government: “We support Russia’s expulsion from SWIFT.”

CHINA’S XI TOLD PUTIN HE RESPECTS RUSSIA’S ACTIONS, AFFIRMED READINESS FOR CLOSE COORDINATION AND MUTUAL SUPPORT AT UNITED NATIONS – KREMLIN

WESTERN OFFICIALS FEAR RUSSIA WILL NOW START BOMBING UKRAINIANS INDISCRIMINATELY, AND EVEN WITH THERMOBARIC WEAPONS IF PROGRESS CONTINUES TO BE IMPEDED – SKYNEWS

NATO activating defense plans – ” to prepare ourselves to respond to a range of contingencies & secure Alliance territory, including by drawing on our response forces” per statement

NATO’S STOLTENBERG: NATO LEADERS TODAY ANNOUNCED MORE WEAPONS FOR UKRAINE, INCLUDING AIR DEFENCE SYSTEMS

German Defense Minister Lambrecht fears Putin is no longer afraid of attacking NATO partners.

Lambrecht: “He is not predictable at all right now.”

Ok what the fuck is going on here? The Dow is +677 as if this shit wasn’t happening. NATO is on the verge of getting into a hot war with Russia. This is without question. By sending AA batteries into Ukraine to shoot down Russian jets, I would imagine this could be viewed as “interfering” as Putin warned NATO not to do. Now the choice is pretty clear now: do you confront Putin and wage war with him, which is going to cost tens of thousands of lives, and that’s not including if in fact China does mobilize on their side. With war criminals in Chechnya fixing to stream into Ukraine, the specter of brutality is increasing in Ukraine and with that, listen to me, public support to wage war against Russia.

PRO RUSSIAN CHECHEN PARAMILITARY READY TO DEPART FOR UKRAINE pic.twitter.com/RX5Rsl4048

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 25, 2022

CHECHEN FORCES MOBILIZED IN GROZNY EN ROUTE TO UKRAINE pic.twitter.com/mYE9a9piFm

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 25, 2022

2 more merchant ships hit by Russian attacks in Black Sea.

Japanese bulk carrier MV Namura Queen hit by a rocket at anchor off Yuzhne.

Moldovan chemical tanker MV Millennial Spirit hit and set on fire 12 miles to the southhttps://t.co/fazJtNvJk6

Video: suvaribeyinnotdefteri pic.twitter.com/p5BHZmUPIk

— Navy Lookout (@NavyLookout) February 25, 2022

HILLARY CLINTON CALLS FOR CYBER ATTACKS ON RUSSIA pic.twitter.com/pHraTccLqh

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 25, 2022

I am heavily long commodities here but have also hedged. I would strongly advise you to do likewise into the weekend.

Following the massacre of Russian markets after invading Ukraine, down more than 30% in a single session, Moscow decided to suspend trading — similar to what we did at the onset of WW1. I believe we halted trading for months.

Here in the states, however, several Russian stocks trade and they’re up today, after crashing to COVID lows.

Russian stocks trading here. Via ?@stocklabsapp? pic.twitter.com/iBeInUnAHw

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 25, 2022

It’s tempting to buy such discounts but by the looks of it, Russia will be punished for the foreseeable future, after taking America’s squeak toy away from them.

Ukraine is claiming they killed 1400 Russians since yesterday and have been needing to use secondary waves of men to keep pace. Russian armored columns are slowly but surely making their way to Kyiv, in what will inevitably be a terrible battle for the capitol. Simultaneously, Russia is prepared to have peace talks with Zelensky in Minsk, which doesn’t seem likely since Belarus is a belligerent.

Here are some relevant headlines for the day.

GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER BAERBOCK SAYS WE NEED TO PAVE THE WAY FOR TARGETED SANCTIONS AND NOT JUST SANCTIONS THAT SOUND BIG || SAYS CUTTING OFF RUSSIA FROM SWIFT WOULD MEAN THAT ORDINARY PEOPLE CAN NO LONGER TRANSFER MONEY TO RELATIVES IN RUSSIA

THE KREMLIN: WE RECOGNISE ZELENSKIY AS UKRAINE’S PRESIDENT.

Ukraine is ready to negotiate a neutral status with Russia, but it must also receive security guarantees, adviser to the President of Ukraine Mikhail Podolyak said in a statement.

“This war must be stopped. These hostilities must be stopped.”

CHINA’S XI TOLD PUTIN HE RESPECTS RUSSIA’S ACTIONS, AFFIRMED READINESS FOR CLOSE COORDINATION AND MUTUAL SUPPORT AT UNITED NATIONS – KREMLIN

RUSSIA HAS PREPARED SANCTIONS TO HIT WEST’S WEAK POINTS: IFX

KREMLIN: OUR EXPECTATIONS OF KYIV REMAIN THE SAME, RUSSIA DOESN’T CHANGE ITS POSITION LIKE A “GIRL”.

RUSSIA: WE ARE LIVING IN A MULTIPOLAR WORLD. NEW CENTERS OF POWER ARE EMERGING AND THIS SHOULD BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT BY THE WEST. THE UNITED STATES CANNOT UNILATERALLY DECIDE

In short, crippling sanctions on Russia, really just excluding them from the rest of the world, while at the same time Russia is preparing to target the weak point of the west. That has to mean gas and perhaps other important commodities. Interestingly, commodities are COLLAPSING today, as that trade got crowded and it now unraveling.

GOLD -2%

WTI -0.7%

NATTY -2.4%

WHEAT -4.6%

CORN -3.2%

SOYBEANS -2.3%

PALLADIUM -7%

CATTLE -2%

Crowded trades usually get mud-stomped like this when people head for the exits. Perhaps the offer of peace talks is causing people to exit the trade, or maybe it’s financial rigging of some sort. One thing is also notable, interest rates are back on the rise, back to previous highs of 2% on the 10yr. This will apply pressure to mortgages and junk credits.

I’m at 100% cash — markets look like they’ll open up slightly to the upside — but I am not too eager to step back in yet.

US futures are down a little more than 100 tonight — but given the +450 point rally that is barely a retracement. At this point, most of you are well versed as to the happenings in the war department — Russia advanced methodically on Kiev while Ukrainians defend themselves best they can. They’ve been quite the spectacle on Twitter, on par with the rest of clown world we live in today — broadcasting everything as we do it in order to curry “likes” and “comments.”

The White House said this earlier and it got me thinking — is anyone next on Putin’s hit list or does he stop at Ukraine?

WHITE HOUSE SAYS BELIEVES PUTIN HAS GRANDER AMBITIONS THAN UKRAINE ***

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 24, 2022

My mind immediately goes to PUTIN RAMPAGING THROUGHOUT EUROPE, lobbing cruise missiles on all major cities in a final showdown with NATO; but I am only thinking that nonsense because I’ve been psyoped by Hollywood since I was born to fear the Hitler and the next Hitler, for once he takes Czechoslovakia he will never stop and instead keep going until he genocides the world, lest you have blonde hair and blue eyes (thank god for contact lenses and hair dye).

But in the real world, Putin is likely to stop at Ukraine and the world will hate him for a year and then forget all about him.

Meanwhile, we still have a FUCKED economy with jaw-breaking inflation, so bear that in mind as you dive in head first into the concrete jungles of the NASDAQIRI.

I was out most of the day and did not trade after my morning sales, which netted me just 1%. I am certain if I had been trading, in what amounted to be one of the best reversals in recent times, I’d be happier than I am now. But I can honestly say, having missed out on +450 NASDAQs, it was just another day at the office.

SAAS stocks exploded to nearly 8% and all of your finest undervalued high PS ratio tech stocks ejaculated with glee, all over the war monger bears who fashioned themselves as General Patton inside some sort of War Room extolling the virtues of WW3.

Since I am 100% in cash and haven’t been at the monitor since afternoon, I offer no real insight into this tape, other than to say this is the first Thursday green in 9 weeks. Whether this ebullience spills into tomorrow and perhaps next week is anyone’s guess. My hunch is, the Russia war discount has been neutralized and we can once again begin to worry about 9 FUCKING RATE HIKES FOR 2022 and deleterious earnings results at BIG TECH — cracking shares asunder in unceremonious burials.

Newsweek is reporting from a government source inside Ukraine — they believe the government will fall inside 96 hrs. The manpower and machinery of the Russians is too much for Ukraine to defend against. Will they revert to Guerilla warfare? I’d argue against it. This isn’t Iraq where mostly Christian Americans occupied a Muslim nation, different country and different language. The Ukrainians are brothers to Russians and once Russia pays off the right people, ordinary folk will just want to get back to living life.

U.S. EXPECTS KYIV TO FALL WITHIN 96 HOURS – NEWSWEEK CITES SOURCE CLOSE TO UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 24, 2022

I’ve been covering the war on my twitter account as many of you know and have seen some pretty disturbing things. Away from the novelty of war via social media, my heart truly breaks for the people of Ukraine who will suffer due to leadership. But of all the things I’ve seen, this video of John Kerry discussing his concerns over the emissions emitted from the war has to be one of the most blackpilled things I’ve ever seen, coming from an American viewpoint. Seriously, don’t laugh at it. Think about the mindset of these people and then look at what’s happening in Russian and then think about natural order and how over time the weak always succumb to the strong, and then worry.

JOHN KERRY IS WORRIED ABOUT THE EMISSIONS FROM UKRAINE-RUSSIAN WAR
pic.twitter.com/yqiJZgfsrh

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 24, 2022

Classic Wall Street, finding the silver lining n anything at all. We could have a mushroom cloud over DC right now (God forbid) and someone, somewhere, would bid up stocks based on the notion of an easy Fed policy. This is exactly what we’re seeing early going — straight up.

More than that, SAAS and tech are leading the way, while the commodity trade takes second fiddle. The idea of gold, oil, and stocks in quicksand almost immediately turned into a buy the fucking dip moment, with traders leveraging up their accounts to find bargains.

Is the market wrong?

The market is never wrong. It all depends on your timeframe. I went to cash and locked in a 1% gain for the session. I was hoping for 5x that amount but all of the commodities faded and my shorts quickly started to lose luster. I am not playing this bounce — only because I am stressed the fuck out and prefer to not increase that stress by being long in what I view a ‘stupid rally.’

Perhaps Kiev is sacked by the weekend and maybe this all goes away like some sort of lucid nightmare. For all the talk, I very much doubt Europe could survive another winter without Russian energy, no matter how many windmills they build.

If this were 3pm, I’d likely take on shorts and long commodities.

There is plenty of blame to go around for how we got to this place in the world, starting with the west’s decision to become wholly dependent upon Russian oil and gas, whilst at the same time ceasing to invest in hydro-carbons. The ESG virtue signaling bullshit has resulted in a fuckload of windmills and solar panels, and now a freezing Europe due to lack of fuel for their furnaces and a belligerent Russia using military force to reassert their dominance in a region of the world ancient to them, rich with historical and cultural ties, and yet I wonder what the fuck was going on with America embedded in that country appointing their politicians and arming them with Raytheon’s very best?

The utopian dream of America on Russia’s border, controlling Kiev, is ostensibly over. As much as we supported Ukraine and everyone appeared to be their friends, in the end, a country can only depend on itself to defend its borders. This is between Russia and Ukraine and there’s not much we can do short of military intervention. Those are just the cold hard facts. Does China use this to invade Taiwan? I don’t think so, since China doesn’t produce its own food. Nevertheless, markets are likely to remain on edge for some time, at least until this is somewhat stabilized — and then what? Business as usual with Russia? How can Europe heat their homes without Russian gas? What about Russian wheat and now Ukrainian wheat — the bread basket of Europe?

Once again, the people, the ordinary people, lose out to poor leadership and corruption. The leaders inside Ukraine chose to ignore the signs for months, publicly decrying US intelligence as being wrong about a Russian invasion. For years they poked at Russia while attempting to join NATO — acquired advanced weaponry and smugly demeaned their far superior neighbor because hubris.

In the end, always, the strong eats the weak, no matter how many interviews they do on 60 Minutes.

Now what?

Rock meets hard place. People are happy over the idea that the Fed might not hike due to this war. Really? Oil is fucking surging, alongside corn, wheat, natty, and every other commodity traded. Inflation just got much much worse and if the Fed doesn’t act to counter inflation, we could have a much larger problem with inflation that anyone could’ve ever imagined possible.

I had prepared for this eventuality and own lots of UVXY and TZA, along with an array of commodity stocks. I will likely go to cash today and perhaps get real small and pick and choose my spots. I do not think this is a day to bottom fish, ahead of Friday, ahead of the longest weekend in decades.