To Hell With The “Global New Deal”

Brown and Obama are trying to convince other G-20 nations to borrow and spend; but, so far, it’s not working. The idea that we can tell the Germans or Spaniards to spend more money, in reckless fashion, so that we don’t look like the only crazy motherfuckers on the street, is insane.

It’s like me wearing a red shirt, decorated with a full jar of mayonnaise. By myself, I would look like a fucking idiot. However, if I convinced all of my friends and neighbors to wear mayonnaise laden shirts too, hell, I’d be in style, like a great bearded goat in the grey mountains—a trend setter to boot.

The path America is taking is an unsustainable one. At some point, foreign governments will cease lending us money. However, I do not believe that will cause a run on the dollar. Congress will enact new laws that give employers and employees tax incentives to invest in treasuries, in replace of equities; because equities are evil and government bonds are fan-fucking-tastic.

No matter what, the government will fight tooth and nail to keep the gig going.

Sometime next week, I will begin buying treasuries, via TLT or BLV (thinly traded). In addition, I will hedge my dollar strength bet, by going long Yuan, via CYB. And, to hedge it a little further, I may buy some gold, via GLD.

Finally, if the market shows strength, I will buy beaten down retailers, like GES and ANF. However, in my gut, I feel this recent rally is long in the tooth and due for a correction.

Into weakness, I will short oil, via SCO. And, I will further my “fuck CRE” thesis, via short sales in ACC, HME and WRI. Finally, I will likely add to my small SRS and FAZ positions.

NOTE: My fellow blogger Gio, will be out indefinitely. He is mourning the death of a good friend, who, tragically, perished by drowning. Leave him a note of encouragement if you can.

UPDATE: A must read, especially for all of you government dick suckers and bank longs.

My favorite part:
During Jan/Feb AIG would call up and just ask for complete unwind prices from the credit desk in the relevant jurisdiction. These were not single deal unwinds as are typically more price transparent – these were whole portfolio unwinds. The size of these unwinds were enormous, the quotes I have heard were “we have never done as big or as profitable trades – ever.”

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEFzYxDPf0A 450 300]

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsnsdgPEDR8 450 300]

UPDATE: The Great Roubini on Geithner.

UPDATE II: For PPT subscribers, Asset Allocation for Dummies. The rest of you are just too smart.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FktYzdDJdqQ 450 300]

Give the market the benefit of the doubt, that it will go lower, not higher. Allow yourself, like the hideous pig masters that you are (that phrase has no meaning), to get short stocks, while accepting the notion that the market may rally until May.

Are you following me?

In other words, be open minded enough to accept a spring rally, but at the same time, be skeptical of it.

My position is to play the momentum, on both ends. As of now, I am long FAZ and SRS, with no longs. As you can see by the end of day prints, I was correct in buying them, yet again. I am not afraid of being short over the weekend, since all of the so called “good news” has been announced.

In other news, it appears Dylan Ratigan is leaving CNBC. Good for him. He was one of the very select few CNBC personalities that spoke the truth or possessed a modicum of intelligence, when spouting rhetoric on the teevee. Now Fast Money will sink, like the fucking Titanic, under the inept stewardship of Zach Karabell and “Taco Joe” Terranova.

In short, “The Fly” is back from his two week hiatus and will resume bowling on you clowns, while throwing jumping jacks at you—from the back of my 80’s style stretch limousine.

Pardon me for posting under such an alarmist title, but it’s true. I’ve been reading some of the Godly newspapers, near the cashier, at my local grocery store, and almost all of them warn of “imminent” and “grave danger” to the Earth, something to do with lots of old cold war era nuclear war heads stored underground.

So you know, Senor Tropicana has secured asylum on the planet “Asstard,” and none of you are invited. While here, on this doomed planet, I intend to “bet” on bank and commercial re stocks going lower. Sometime soon, I will begin betting on oil stocks sucking dirt too.

In an odd twist of reality mixed with misty mirages, I have decided to bet against the 99% of the water buffalo running around on iBankCoin, in order to prove a point. That point being: I am smarter than all of you combined.

Watch and learn, old Chap. Watch and learn.

Poof. The bull market of 2009 is over.

-Merlin

I am very tempted to begin a crusade of sorts against the fuckers who buy oil and oil stocks, during economic collapse. I can undertake such measures in a variety of ways.

The straight forward approach is to sell short bloated rig makers, like NOV and RIG. Or, I can reinitiate my war versus XOM.

However, considering the risk at hand, delving into individual names, I will likely bet against the sector, by way of etf.

To bet against the commodity (oil), I might go with SCO or DTO.

And, as you well know, I shall bet against you inflation losers, via ERY or DUG.

Bottom line: Should oil trade back down to the low $40’s/high $30’s, I will be tea bagging the Texas tea baggers in their own kettle, if that makes any sense to you—God speed.

Update: Pardon me for interrupting this Tea Party, I just bought 2,000 FAZ @ $19.16.

Update II: I sold out of NSM, around $10.80. My only positions are FAZ and SRS. Funny how that happened.

Should City Center file for bankruptcy, MGM will likely follow suit and all of the contractors working on the project will get hit too. As a result, unfortunately, I sold out of my PCR position, for a loss.

I bought some SRS, based upon the MGM situation and the possible jarring effects it should have, for the REIT sector. However, keep in mind, I am just getting started. For now, I will continue to hold my little NSM position.

Apparently, the market forces are ignoring such detrimental news and attempting to bottom fish here. My hunch, such efforts will result in outlandish losses for the assholes who choose to ignore things, such as reality or non-fiction.

Don’t get me wrong, I do not wish death to U.S. equities, only a deep coma. I am not bitter, whatsoever, over missing out on the biggest rally since, well, the great bottom of ’74, not at all. “The Fly” is a simple working man, who harbors no ill intentions against asshole dip buyers or idiot bank lovers.

Coming back to the idea of “reality,” it is very possible for us to bear witness to the greatest ponzi scheme (U.S. Gov’t) ever concocted, since the “The Great Stimulus plan of 12,331 B.C.,” where all cavemen were encouraged to put leopard skinned rugs on their cave walls, instead of the cheap prairie dog kind. What a ruse! At any rate, we may very well see the Dow Jones Industrial Average drop by a whopping 50% from today’s levels, based upon good ol’ fashioned DEPRESSION and WORLWIDE FAMINE.

Pardon me for being a two bit alarmist. It is my style.

UPDATE: I sold out of my BUCY position for a .30 win!

I bought 2,000 SRS @ $53.40