Mystery Tape

Despite pervasive weakness in the banks, stocks are offering a respite to the bulls, via a 1.5% spike. Leadership is widespread, minus banks. However, the biggest gains can be found in the metals, specifically RTP, RIO, RS and MT, just to name a few.

In my opinion, Chinese stocks offer a wonderful “Costanza” trade here. As you know, I am long FXI and CHL. In addition, COGO, YZC, EDU, STV and MR look decent, down at these levels.

On the short side, I continue to hold onto my lotto tickets (SRS, DUG, ERY, FAZ), in an effort to, well, hit the lotto.

Just know this: the market cannot run without the banks. So, this rally is very suspect. However, there is room for some “bounceable” upside here. If forced to pick a bank, through knife or gun point, I’d buy BLK, with a tight stop at $103, in order to play a potential bank rally and hedge other bank shorts.

There’s no action today. I find myself, unamused by the whimsical movements of the Dow, I’ll have you know.

Personally, I am simply waiting for the bond holders of banks to get wiped out, amidst government sponsored cram downs. Oh the glory of such a scene should only be reserved for the very best, with the deepest and most prestigious gene pool. The looks on their (bondholders) stupid faces, when they receive an egregious government notice, via certified mail, will be endlessly priceless.

As an aside, it appears our rotten to the core government is trying, mind you, to steal a trillion dollars in a bill called “stimulus.” If it wasn’t bad enough that these motherless whores stole $1 trill during the Iraq war, over a period of 6 years; now, they’re are attempting to hasten up the process by stealing the next trillion in 1 week.

What a land of opportunity.

There is no stimulus in the stimulus bill. I find that rather peculiar and quite odd.

As for the today’s tape:

Thus far, I am having a Michael Phelps day, including the weed. In my world, all of those gold medals, plus a joint, is good living. Anyway, I am long SRS, DUG, ERY, FXI, CHL, MT, BUCY and FAZ.

While it’s true, “The Fly” has other positions, most of them are too small to matter. Plus anyway, I try to remain focused on this here blog, in order to cram down my thoughts for those with low intelligence quotients.

Bottom line: A very bad sell off is nearing. Put the dog in the barn and the kids in the basement. It’s about to get Zach Karabell ugly up in this piece.

Obamanomics is the equivalent to someone stealing your purse, in order to buy a lethal dose of crack cocaine.

C R O N K I T E!

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I’m glad to see this Monday fuckfest over with. I had to deal with all sorts of misfits, fucking up my mojo, attempting to “put in another bottom.”

You stupid fucking bastards.

Nothing worked today, unless you were short crude. Big strength in GS and MS, while death knocked at BAC‘s door. Commercial Re stocks were getting buried this morning, only to forge ahead with, yet another, late date rally, effectively fucking my SRS position.

Basically, everyone loses on days like today.

All of you reflation fuckers got punched in the nuts, with TBT knifing lower. And, amazingly, XOM finished up, while oil closed at the lows. There is some real fishy, fishy business going on; I don’t like it one bit.

The Government is getting all protectionist and shit, looking to raise taxes, in egregious Smoot Hawley fashion. And, at the same time, there are many of you who believe the current economic decline is a standard run of the mill, nothing to see here, downturn.

Good day to you, Sir. Indeud.

At the end of the day, I am right and you are wrong. Just fess up to the fact that you are not better than me, not now, not ever. The market was tossed into the back of a Caddy, then shot 9 times, all the while you were declaring “buy the dips.”

Sure, the market may bounce, here or there, or even everywhere. But, when all matters are considered, “The Fly” games this fucking market like a pimp in a town full of unrepresented whores.

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Some of you pikers like this volatility. Personally, I’d like it to go away. It’s too much, with the crazy back and forth gyrations of the market. I want to lead a normal life, not one of a degenerate OTB guy gawking at the races.

This is fucking bullshit.

Part of me wants to just go to cash and spend the rest of my days throwing jumping jacks at people, from the back of a stretch limo. On the other hand, I’ve got work to do.

It’s a rather stupid business, this money management is. A lot of my fellow colleagues pride themselves on “proper asset allocation models” and “sophisticated estate planning.” When in reality, they’re just fee mongering money losers. They put these elaborate plans together, collect their egregious fees, from variable annuities and life insurance policies, then proceed to lose their clients money, hand over fist.

It’s a fucking joke.

What’s even funnier are the little bloggers out there, who have zero industry experience, trying to tell you (the unwashed) how fucked the business is. Hell, anyone can say that; but do they really know?

Well, I can tell you, with direct knowledge of certain on goings at certain brokerage houses, business looks grim. All of the fee based models have been destroyed, over the past 18 months. The level of disaster, worldwide, cannot be summarized in a bullshit blog post.

As far as wealth is concerned, about 40% of it, worldwide, has been disintegrated.

Those are losses you do not walk away from.

Unfortunately, it will take another 10-15 years before Wall Street recovers from this mess.

As for today’s tape:

The market looks like it wants to rally. Tech is strong, as are select retailers. However, for the most part, the market is one big fuckfest, where everyone gets it.

My favorite short squeeze play is MT. And, my favorite longs are CHL/FXI.

On the short side, I like MAC, SLG, ESS and FRT. If you are short KIM, you may want to cover and wait for a bounce to reshort.

Bottom line: I would not press shorts here, nor would I go “all in” long. Take a measured approach and try not to get so fucking excited about every tick.

There are lots of things scrambling through my big brain this morning, such as banks, reits, oils and Korea.

Despite numerous capital raises, most banks have insufficient tier one capital levels. Which means, of course, they will have to raise new money. I have a funny feeling the government will allow corporations repatriate earnings held abroad.

If you recall, they allowed U.S. corporations to do this, back in 2004-05. As a result, more than $300 bill came flooding back. Some estimates say there is more than $1 trillion in earnings being held in foreign banks abroad, mainly by IT and healthcare companies.

One company that has busloads of cash aboard and needs it badly is GE. With GE getting “homo hammered” on a daily basis here, do not be surprised to see “The Big O,” include repatriation incentives in his stimulus bill.

Korean banks are in dire straights. Look for excessive weakness in SHG and WF. Both companies are devoid of the ever elusive tier one capital.

Speaking of which: so are most of our reits. These assholes have billions upon billions in debt due and no—fucking—chance of refinancing it, at least cheaply. For example: SPG has more than $3 billion due in 2009-2010.

How in the world will they be able to deal with that? Perhaps a little government intervention?

Bottom line: I have a fucking list running down the hallway, littered with companies with negative cash per share/price ratios. Any company with more debt than cash is subject to unannounced bear raids.

Here are a few names, with tenuous balance sheet issues, worth noting:

AIV, SLG, RWT, MFW, PHH, WF, SHG, BLX, CMA, MAC, CYH, TK, PKY, ATLS, PPS, UDR, SSS, SPG and CHK.

Bottom line: Despite the prospect of a government sponsored “bad bank” (how ridiculous does that sound?) I still think the market is fucked. Naturally, beware of the short squeezes and all that other egregious stuff. However, at the end of the day, the core fundamentals shows no signs of improvement and, as a point in fact, look rather dreadful from my perspective.

NOTE: SHG is raising money today, at a 25% discount to market.

Asian Homo Hammer Wire.

Asian Homo Hammer Music:

Feel free to dance, as if you just won the super bowl, near your computer, while watching the “Asian Homo Hammer Wire.”