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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

An Overview of the Market, via The PPT

Remember, The PPT is a program developed by space alien magicians, in order to enrich a small subset of lucky humans. It does operate under the handicap or advantage of human emotions, unlike Senor Tropicana. Often times, I fuck myself by not listening to the darn thing (FTK). On the other hand, The PPT spits on most penny stocks. Therefore, if I operated exclusively like a homo robot (no offense to heterosexual robots), I’d miss out on a plethora of “dead cat bounce” trades, which have enriched my current accounts a great deal over the last 3 weeks. In my opinion, a blend of both mechanical (hetero robot) and human intuition is the optimal trading disposition for me. Truth be told, I am still adjusting.

At any rate, here are some useful data points, all thanks and praise to the high IQ’d men over at The PPT.

Overall (3,316 stocks)

Market Overview
Average Technical Score: 1.25 Strong Sell
Average Fundamental Score: 3.56 Buy
Average Hybrid Score: 2.24 Sell

Top 10 stocks (no market cap screen)

No. Ticker Technicals Fundamentals Hybrid Score Hybrid Change – Daily Hybrid Change – Weekly
1 SIGM 3.19 4.90 3.93 6.50% 24.18%
2 VIV 3.64 4.20 3.88 16.52% 11.35%
3 TXN 3.19 4.80 3.88 -0.51% 34.33%
4 MDF 3.34 4.55 3.86 1.05% 46.59%
5 CF 3.02 4.95 3.85 9.07% 1.80%
6 NPK 3.04 4.90 3.84 41.18% 10.62%
7 PETM 3.24 4.55 3.81 39.05% 2.27%
8 MOS 3.07 4.80 3.81 -6.16% 46.27%
9 TIBX 3.19 4.60 3.80 15.15% 46.15%
10 FUQI 3.09 4.70 3.78 42.11% -12.08%


Bottom 10 stocks
(min. price $10)

No. Ticker Hybrid Score Price
1 OSIR 1.00 12.35
2 PACW 1.10 16.90
3 LOPE 1.14 14.35
4 THRX 1.17 13.42
5 OSTK 1.20 10.91
6 ITMN 1.20 11.41
7 XCO 1.27 11.19
8 BMRN 1.27 14.00
9 CELG 1.29 39.80
10 SBAC 1.30 22.20

Top 10 Industries

No. Industry Tech. Fund. Hybrid Hybrid Change – Daily Hybrid Change – Weekly
1 Dairy Products 2.55 3.84 3.11 9.98% 23.91%
2 Agricultural Chemicals 2.23 3.86 2.93 -6.06% 22.30%
3 Multimedia & Graphics Software 1.97 3.80 2.80 13.97% 7.57%
4 Beverages – Brewers 1.52 4.28 2.70 -4.98% 0.55%
5 Air Services, Other 1.94 3.70 2.70 15.07% 5.16%
6 Healthcare Information Services 2.28 3.18 2.67 3.48% 12.24%
7 Processing Systems & Products 1.55 4.11 2.65 0.53% 8.86%
8 Tobacco Products, Other 1.99 3.52 2.65 -3.78% 4.96%
9 Printed Circuit Boards 1.51 4.14 2.64 -0.12% 6.69%
10 Health Care Plans 1.63 3.96 2.63 1.24% 8.30%

Bottom 10 Industries

No. Industry Tech. Fund. Hybrid Hybrid Change – Daily Hybrid Change – Weekly
1 Real Estate Development 0.88 2.95 1.77 -9.35% -19.69%
2 Major Airlines 1.00 2.81 1.78 1.98% 4.25%
3 Lumber, Wood Production 0.98 2.86 1.79 -7.12% -5.24%
4 Publishing – Newspapers 1.01 2.84 1.80 -4.07% -21.05%
5 Office Supplies 0.93 2.96 1.80 -0.64% -5.06%
6 Residential Construction 1.05 2.84 1.82 -1.68% -1.20%
7 Lodging 0.98 2.94 1.82 -5.42% -3.22%
8 REIT – Office 0.98 3.03 1.86 -2.15% -8.13%
9 Regional – Midwest Banks 0.88 3.18 1.87 -4.25% -9.94%
10 Regional – Pacific Banks 0.91 3.29 1.90 -2.86% -17.27%

Top 10 ETF’s

No. Ticker Acc/Dist Price Perf. Rel. Strength Volatility Volume Final Score
1 ECH 5 4 3 3 2 4.16
2 BSR 5 3 3 2 3 4.04
3 HAO 5 3 2 4 4 4
4 MOO 5 3 1 4 4 3.9
5 ERY 5 3 1 5 2 3.76
6 SCC 5 3 1 3 4 3.76
7 TFI 5 2 5 1 1 3.7
8 DTO 5 2 1 5 3 3.63
9 SJF 5 3 1 3 1 3.61
10 UUP 5 2 4 1 3 3.61

And here are four of my custom screens, worth a look over.

OVEREXTENDED (possible short sale set ups)

No. Ticker Hybrid Score Short as % of Float Net Cash per Share / Price YTD Return Price
1 BKS 2.47 22.20 -0.09 51.79 22.42
2 BGC 2.46 10.70 -0.64 93.95 34.31
3 BIG 2.45 24.20 -0.12 67.56 24.28
4 JWN 2.36 17.30 -0.55 71.25 22.52
5 LULU 2.34 16.40 0.06 54.80 12.28
6 AMMD 2.33 10.30 -0.52 63.07 14.66
7 CAB 2.31 19.20 -0.46 113.89 12.47
8 WNR 2.20 16.60 -1.43 72.93 13.42
9 ISLE 2.19 14.70 -3.66 270.63 11.86
10 MDP 2.12 15.20 -0.38 52.91 25.73
11 WFMI 2.08 13.30 -0.33 107.73 19.61
12 IOC 2.02 14.29 -0.07 157.45 35.40
13 GPI 1.94 24.50 -1.36 61.56 17.40
14 DNDN 1.92 18.60 0.00 347.16 20.48
15 JCG 1.88 28.10 0.01 50.82 18.40
16 IMA 1.88 11.50 -0.57 63.14 30.85
17 TPX 1.85 16.20 -0.49 56.84 11.12
18 MTH 1.83 20.30 -0.72 57.35 19.15
19 DIN 1.59 20.00 -4.07 121.63 25.62

GET BIG (possible big cap long set ups)

No. Ticker Hybrid Change (Daily) Hybrid Score Market Cap
1 ITT 11.50 2.52 8,133,391,152
2 CAJ 10.39 2.55 35,082,590,940
3 NOK 22.60 2.55 47,019,346,542
4 STT 10.30 2.57 10,423,026,517
5 COL 11.16 2.59 5,951,160,391
6 K 10.59 2.82 16,600,130,608
7 ERTS 35.68 3.08 5,541,614,317
8 APH 31.45 3.26 5,011,499,461
9 ACL 10.14 3.26 25,289,737,607
10 CTSH 27.63 3.28 5,608,268,669
11 WIT 29.89 3.39 9,967,966,147
12 LO 17.75 3.45 10,181,722,340
13 SYT 18.31 3.49 18,153,208,883
14 IBN 38.89 3.50 9,007,205,280
15 JNJ 29.78 3.53 160,813,967,482
16 HRS 17.49 3.56 5,779,367,856
17 ATVI 28.42 3.66 12,594,955,947

NOTABLE MOVERS (stocks that were flagged as possible longs, market cap under 10bill)

No. Ticker Hybrid Change (Daily) Hybrid Score Market Cap
1 ZQK 62.86 2.85 237,396,820
2 CSTR 60.11 2.93 655,080,697
3 BCRX 58.70 2.92 84,712,180
4 NVTL 52.68 3.42 192,571,319
5 HEB 48.88 3.32 44,895,311
6 VRX 47.67 2.85 1,801,094,595
7 NLC 46.89 3.54 1,583,706,790
8 CNQR 45.36 2.66 1,231,779,161
9 MANT 44.63 3.50 1,196,527,297
10 CMTL 43.92 3.67 973,701,033
11 CBT 43.88 3.41 831,508,777
12 LNC 41.97 2.74 4,045,484,871
13 PETM 39.05 3.81 2,411,434,246
14 IBN 38.89 3.50 9,007,205,280
15 ZRAN 38.33 3.14 321,329,752
16 VAR 37.89 2.62 4,612,086,391
17 NG 37.67 3.07 379,797,270
18 FORM 36.82 3.01 812,962,444
19 LINE 35.83 2.54 1,836,716,715
20 ERTS 35.68 3.08 5,541,614,317
21 SNDK 35.22 3.11 2,099,895,770
22 AXE 34.73 3.22 1,177,696,571
23 ELNK 33.33 3.12 843,060,647
24 CPWR 32.68 3.41 1,649,049,362
25 SWIR 32.02 3.34 156,718,425


MOMENTUM SHORTS
(possible short sales. stocks rolling over on accelerated volume)

No. Ticker Hybrid Change (Daily) Hybrid Score Volume Score Price
1 RMBS -25.11 1.67 5.00 12.02
2 FCL -18.75 1.82 4.00 26.90
3 CRZO -14.40 2.14 5.00 16.39
4 GMXR -14.01 2.21 5.00 13.18
5 VNDA -12.64 2.28 5.00 11.20

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Brand Nubian – Slow Down

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuhaFdBuwp4&feature=PlayList&p=1694D39C67B95BD3&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=23 550 400]

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Off To Mexico

Instead of playing around with stocks, I’ve decided to press my luck with a global pandemic, by way of roaming the ghettos of Mexico with large diamond rings and chains upon my person.

My recommendation, regarding stocks, is to cover your shorts and be an American, by way of long equity exposure. By now, you should be sick and tired of my rants, always claiming victories, despite specious evidence of losses. Just know, “The Fly” wins all the time, even when his positions “death dive” on no news.

As you know, I like the semis, due to their “non-retarded” ways. Some names worth investment include: OVTI, AMKR, RFMD, ATHR and SPIL.

Finally, I have another urgent matter to attend to, which, as a result, unveils the insignificance of trading stocks and winning stupid internet bravado battles. Remember, stocks are for asshats, but life is for fucktards.

Words to live by.

NOTE: Into the bell, I will add to my death merchant position: FTK.

NOTE II: A shot out to Lord Gint for his terrific call on PL. Muchos gracias.

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GET OFF MY PROPERTY

Japanese machinery orders came in better than expected. Despite stories of freight ship clogging the arteries of popular Asian ports, LCD manufacturers are bitching about supply shortages, due to big DEMAND in China. AUO is your play.

Everyone is obsessed with secondary offerings and how terrible it is for stocks. Says who, fuckface?

The fact that companies are able to go to market to raise capital is a fantastic.At the end of the day, most of you are simply overzealous clapping gay men, with rocks in your head and clouds beneath your shoes.

While it’s true, “The Fly” is getting taken to the woodshed on FTK; it’s also true, the battle is not over, just yet. The bear case for FTK is need for capital. They are burning through 2mill per quarter and have a bond payment due in August. At the present, they have 9mill in cash/line of credit. Without a doubt, they will need to raise capital. However, I do not doubt for a second their ability to raise cash.

The capital markets are open to everyone. Come one, come all. Take some money and spend it on cocaine biscuits and office building built from lemons.

With CLRT up, I like SFE here. Remember, SFE is a deep value play, who owns more than 50% of CLRT.

For the most part, stocks are just chopping people up. There is no clear direction and it is dangerous, as fuck, to lever up and take a strongly biased position. Most of my longs are weak today. But, my fall is cushioned by a 35% cash position. Instead of using such said funds to short stocks, I will wait out this period of indecisiveness and use such said funds to buy the dips.

I was going to buy a basket of biotech stocks, ahead ASCO. But my appetite for small hand grenades has waned since last night.

In closing, the market needs a catalyst to go higher. Right now people are obsessed with “going away in May,” mainly because they are brainless walking suits. Pick and choose your spots carefully, while having a light market weighting. Once the correction ends, you will regret being short. In my opinion, it makes more sense having a heavy cash position, readying to buy dips, than hedging with shorts.

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Slippage

The market has a bad vibe to it, over the last few days. The market isn’t getting rocked; but at the same time, it is slowly bleeding out.

From tech to cre to banks to oil, the market has punched the livers out of a variety of names, particularly those of the small cap variety. The best sector in the market has been agriculture chemical stocks, like MOS, AGU and POT. But, they can’t keep going higher, while everything else is flaking out.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not declaring the end to the bull run. As a matter of fact, I have no desire to short stocks. I am suggesting to be mindful that a correction is at hand and it may continue, until there is a catalyst to shoot higher.

With my money, I bought some PL and will likely add to some of my loser positions, prior to the market close.

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“Maintain”

An evil, insidious word.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=135tAqRkexY&feature=channel_page 550 400]

UPDATE on the Important Matter of Using the word Maintain:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lvni3UgadPE&feature=channel_page 550 400]

Good Day.

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La Flavour: Mandolay

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBuSQCqcIsE 550 400]

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No Balls, No Babies

I’m not into buying FAZ and SRS anymore, like many of you donkey punchers. If I decide to go short, I’ll be damned if I give those horse faces from Direxion another red cent. Fuck them and the queer unicorn they rode in on.

Because of my family emergency, I was only able to “feel the market” for part of the day. I bought some CUZ and eyeballed buying more TWi—but never got motivated enough to buy some.

Aside from that, I am participating in the secondary offering, PL.

Overall, the market has a very nervous tone to it. I am not 100% comfortable being long. But I made my bed and now it’s time to sleep in it.

On a whole, the fundamentals of the market are improving. LIBOR is way down and once thought to be dead companies are finding financing. Do not look at the secondaries as a negative. Sure, some stocks are undergoing significant dilution. But, just two months ago, those same names were marked for dead. In my book, it’s better to have a $10 stock, instead of a big ol’ gay zero.

Eventually, the dilution will stop and demand for higher than zero returns will commence. If your game plan is to time every single inflection point, I guarantee your dumb ass will lose the house, cars, wife and kids, inside of 6 months.

NOTE: The inflation trade continues with gains in ag, specifically MOS, IPI, AGU, POT and TRA.

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Fly Buy: CUZ

I bought 2,000 CUZ @ $8.

Disclaimer: If you buy CUZ because of this post, your dog will bite a policeman. And, you may lose money.

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