Q1 Ends With Nonsense

So goes the phrase of my dearly beloved late Grandfather: “you’re all schmucks, the whole lot of you.”

Bewildered you are, sitting there in the “unluxury” of your plastic chair, shocked by the late day chicanery. Give up the business of managing other people’s money and leave that burden on the shoulders of great investors, such as Senor Tropicana.

Frankly, as opposed to being “unfrank,” your hedge fund deserves 100% redemptions. God willing, blessed by the stone of Jupiter, all of your clients will leave you and spend the proceeds at the track.

At the end of the first quarter of 2009, “The Fly” is ahead to the tune of 25%, with a 90% cash position. He has small cocked positions in FAZ and SRS, with a little TLT flavour [sic]. Going into tomorrow, I might buy more SRS or I might buy UYM. Tune in to find out, liver lips.

In closing, you are a bad investor because you guess. I am better because I know.

Good Day.

So they are going to water down mark to market accounting on Thursday. At the same time, they (insidious dark forces) are funneling tax payer dollars through AIG into the vacation home vaults of the executives at GS. It’s a tough time to be in the business of shorting stocks, while these forces are in the sandbox.

Yesterday’s sell off has been erased by today’s reasonless spike. This is the type of market that people bungee jump off bridges for, sans the bungee rope.

I sold out of my SCO position, which was initiated yesterday at $31.10, around $33. Although I think oil goes lower, I can’t stay short crude, while the market is spiking. I am not selling FAZ, SRS or TLT, mainly due to the positions being tiny. And, it’s worth noting, I am still in a 90%+ cash position.

It’s a meat grinder out there people. Put your fucking sausage costumes on and get on the conveyor belt. While you are busy doing that, “The Fly” will wait in the tall grass for his opportunity to strike a deadly blow.

Bill Miller from LM is down 13.5% year to date. Aside from Bill, there are a lot of dumb men, who manage billions of dollars, down double digits for 2009. The trapped rats who manage billions will try to juice the market today, in order to avoid massive redemptions. However, whether you are up 15% or down 15%, money is being withdrawn from hedge funds, as investors say “fuck this shit,” take their ball and go home.

Sure, we can have a little fun, gunning bear market rallies, making believe nothing is amiss. But we’d just be lying to ourselves.

None of the steel or aluminum makers will make money in 2009, due to depressed metal prices. You already know about cranes and oil rigs. In short, there is not much to bet on, with any real confidence. Everything is a fucking trade—nothing matters. Trade your dog you fucking animals.

With my money, thus far, I’ve done nothing. I am mostly cash, with positions in FAZ, SRS, TLT and SCO. Most likely, I will allocate more cash, within an hour or so. Once again, I have meetings to attend and will be leaving early today.

It’s not fun talking shit about bad banks— anymore. It’s all sort of old hat to me. Everyone is doing it and it makes for boring blog. So, in an effort to spice things up a little, I found a few fresh names that can go down the rat hole, with very unsportsmanlike conduct.

Name of the company is: Manitowoc, ticker MTW, an old Cramer fav.

They make cranes and they are done. How’s that for in depth analysis?

No, but seriously, they just reported numbers 50% below consensus and they are in grave danger of breaking their loan covenants. Their crane business is so fucking bad, despite all of the holy rollers in China building shit out of thin air, they will fall below the required leverage ratios and fail to generate enough EBITDA to be considered solvent, inside of a year.

Bottom line: they need to renegotiate their credit agreements or go away. The most likely scenario is some sort of new agreement and the company slugs along, albeit badly injured. However, it speaks volumes about the so called “petrol oil boom,” via crane demand and foreign infrastructure projects. Case in point, MTW‘s competitor TEX. The whole industry is under fire and it debunks any stupid argument put forth by block headed bovines, regarding emerging market growth.

Pah.

Second on the list of doomed industries: oil services.

There are a lot of names to chew through. However, a select few standout as “red flags” with regards to their impoverished balance sheets.

The companies with the worst balance sheets are: BRNC, HERO, NR, BAS, PDC and SWSI.

Other weak balance sheets worth noting: SII, WFT, RIG and NBR.

If I had to choose one name to put a tombstone on, I’d go with BAS. No fucking way they can come up with the $200 mill needed by 2010.

No-fucking-way.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gK1e2TCFAA 450 300]

This is my last post of the day, due to a prior engagement.

I am holding onto my FAZ/SRS/SCO/TLT positions, mainly because I sense something is amiss, with this here market.

Take a look at the open interest in WFC April 10 puts— out of control. Right now, there are 107,000+ open interest for the contracts, compared to 63,000 for the April 15’s. And, to push the dice roll further, someone bought a boatload of April 7.50 puts. Open interest for the 7.50’s is 41k+.

Normally I put zero credence in such things. However, considering the balance sheet of WFC, coupled with the fact that past put buying extravaganzas in the banks have been excellent accurate predictive tells, such as the Bear bankruptcy, it’s worth a mention. That’s all.

With all of its splendor and pizazz, the great bear market of 2009 has returned, and it is mad as hell. Just know, if you are long equities, you are in grave danger of losing your eyes to knife wielding clowns.

Truth be told, as unbelievable as it may seem, I am still not up and running. I have partial liquidity, with limited buying power. So, until I am able to kick old men down idle sewer drains again, my trading behavior will remain pedestrian. I repeat, my trading behavior will remain pedestrian.

So you know, I am making nice coin in SRS, FAZ and SCO today. Frankly, the market can start swan diving from here, if the bears are up to the task. Take a look at the insurance firms, LNC ans PFG. If that does not scare you, nothing will.

As for the banks:

They are all lying their stupid faces off. How the fuck are they, suddenly and magically, making money? Can you say AIG funnel fraud? If so, say it 10 times fast, then backwards.

Right here, right now, I like HME and RIG short. Moreover, I like TLT and SCO long.

Oil is fucked right alongside all of the asinine banks and erroneously managed commercial real estate jokers. This decline will tombstone Jim Cramer’s dickfaces career as a television stock cheerleader.

Jon Stewart will fucking crucify him.

SHAME ON THE HOUSE OF CRAMER UPDATE: Former TSCM columnist, Lenny Dykstra, is a fucking fraud. How many times did Jim suck his dick?

UPDATE: Jim Rogers on the UK.

If this pullback turns into something more, such as another failed bear market rally, it will poleax every single stock market cheerleader, starting with Cramer.

People like Cramer and his ilk have been out in front, telling everyone to suck the pants off of this market. Hell, we are just two months away from a housing bottom, according to Cramer.

One thing is for certain: Should we go back to new lows, the market will be fucked on a spindle for the rest of 2009. Taking a look at today’s action, it is very disconcerting. Ag plays like MOS, POT and TNH are being taken to the cleaners, as well as all oil/gas plays. Also, there is broad weakness, amongst all sectors (minus gold), led by banks, retailers, insurance names and REITS aka the bear market rally winners.

Very classic, indeud.

Basically, we are back in the funnel, being lowered into the DEFLATIONARY VORTEX.

To play the vortex game, you need to be long treasuries, dollars and short stocks. Also, you can bet against eurotrash, via DRR. And, early cycle recovery plays, like the semi’s, via short sales of KLAC, INTC or long SSG.

Now, I am objective enough to accept the possibility that this dip is nothing more than a way station higher, at least until May. So, with my money, I will NOT commit much capital. Moreover, if I do, it will be placed in low beta investments, like TLT.

However, should the market continue to weaken, I will get emboldened and begin short sales in ACC, WRI and HME. For the moment, MAC is a bit too low for my taste—fyi.

And, finally, I will likely initiate some sort of bear position on oil today, via SCO or DUG/ERY. On the long side, I don’t like much of anything right now, short of TLT, UUP and maybe a little GLD.

NOTE: The carnage in LNC, PFG and MET, amongst other insurance names is alarming. Keep a close eye on them.

UPDATE: As per the Obama conference, he will be bankrupting Chrysler in 30 days and GM in 60. Basically, insurance stocks and banks are feeling the brunt, due to the enormous amount of debt and preferred stock out there. Regarding GM: the debt load is egregious. When the haircuts come, banks and insurance firms will take knives to the eyes.

UPDATE II: I bought 2,000 SCO @ $31.10

There are lots of reasons to hate this market, with very little to like it. Having missed 2/3rds of the recent run up, I can tell you, objectively, you looked very stupid out there, buying stocks, while ignoring the death needle.

Here on Wall Street, we all laugh at the common folk, who ardently, and patriotically, buy stocks for the “long term.” We chuckle, with great vigor, on full stomachs, at the inflation hawks, who so desperately want to be bailed out of their disastrous commodity bets.

However, the business of blogging is no laughing matter. Through rain or shine, “The Fly” must come out here everyday, on “The Grande Stage,” called iBankCoin, in order to amuse and enlighten the common folk—which is you—the reader.

More on this later.

For now, focus your efforts on the banks, cre and oil. I like long bets on SRS, FAZ, SCO, ERY and TLT. Almost immediately following this post, I will buy some TLT, in an effort to “desack” many of you inflation lovers. Furthermore, the FAZ and SRS positions, which were purchased in “Plutonium Petey’s” personal account last week, will remain whole.

I intend to take profits on them at significantly higher prices, all the while our world leaders twiddle their thumbs in some egregious G-20 meeting.

UPDATE: I bought 2,000 TLT @ $105.48

I’ll be shocked and amazed if this isn’t some sort of ruse to trick everyone to get short, only to crush them later on with some last minute, back of the envelope fuckery.

As of now, foreign markets and U.S. futures are decidedly negative. Should Obama do the right thing and let GM go bust, the market will be funnier than a suicide bomber, dressed as a banana, inside of a munitions factory— run by a bunch of gay guys in gorilla costumes.

Developing…