EN ROUTE TO RETEST THE 2022 LOWS *

I can all but guarantee you that this market breakdown will result in RETESTING the 2022 lows.

That much to me is certain. The pain and agony will happen all at once, as commodity winners quickly turn into loser with hedge funds liquidating to save their skins. There is going to be a race for the exits — but the exits are a funnel and only a few can leave at once — spilled out into a war torn hell-scape of apocalyptic qualities.

On a longer term basis, I very much would like to tell you that “it’s over” and “OMG WE ARE SOO DONE” in my best Long Island accent impersonation. However, it’s too early to make long term predictions. Plus anyway, I am always wrong on them.

I remained in 78% cash the whole day, and although tempted to trade — I knew it was best to stay away. Early on the old man PG, CL, Ks of the world popped — but they lost luster around noon and faded. Everything faded, even the airlines, which were very strong all day. Literally, there wasn’t any place to hide.

I close the session -1.2%, long only $UVXY and $SQQQ — prepared to buy some dips (for trades) at the open tomorrow.

We haven’t even had bad economic data yet. SHOP is down 65% and they haven’t missed earnings YET. All of these stocks before you down 60% WILL GET CUT IN HALF AGAIN before this is all said and done.

Today’s tape is MOST IMPORTANT because it represents liquidation and/or recession trading.

This is what is working and what will continue to work when GDP dives -3%.

KHC, MO, CPB, KO, WEC, FLO, VZ, DGX, ABC, T, MNST, EA, COLD.

Got it?

WE ARE DOOMED and barreling straight for recession. Once there, the commodity bubble will POP and all of the oils will get drubbed back down into their barrels and then and only then will despair rule over Wall Street. Up until now, people have been hiding out in commodities — hoping for supply disruptions and inflation to save them. We will go from inflation to deflation in a blink of an eye — once this all collapses.

Source of funds: everything.

ENPH down 12% is a major red flag and do not be surprised to see the commodity sector get hit harder than you thought possible. It’s not because prices are weak — but because hedge funds are now BLOWING THE FUCK UP AND OUT and will be FORCED to sell their holdings to raise funds to meet redemptions.

Listen to me, The Black Flag of certain death is flying on the vessel now and grape is being shot into your portfolios. The selling in names like GNRC, SE, ENPH, MOS, PLUG, AA, CCJ  is FRANTIC and people are losing their shit — because the market is crashing now and there isn’t anything you or your stupid friends can do about it.

I sold everything but my shorts — because fuck this tape — and I will not be doing anything until end of session.

I was doing fine up until the market opened and my losses stacked. Last night AA Poster weaker than expected results, hammering the stock lower; and today FCX gave it a go and lowered guidance. This is coming off the backs of RECORD commodity prices.

So the question I’m asking myself here is: what the fuck is going on here? If demand isn’t causing prices of these commodities to rise, what is?

I guess we are enjoying rising inflation with runaway to the downside economic activity. This is not fine.

I’m down over 200bps for the session and my trading hand is cold. I’ll need to reassess and I’ve already done so by liquidating my losers.

Even though the market appears to be strong today — DO NOT BE FOOLED. That’s all Tesla. Most Stocks are down, with breadth at 49%.

If you’re still clinging onto hope, a believoor in Pax Americana — I am here to remind you that it’s over.

What do you mean — “it’s over” Fly?

What I mean is, things will never be the same again — the way it once was before men starting giving birth to babies and people defended and supported the authority of government and their wars and their oppressive polices over ordinary people.

IT IS OVER BENJAMIN FRANKLIN — you piece of shit.

YTD LOSSES for some of your favorite stocks. Enjoy.

FB -40%
AMD -35%
AFRM -65%
RBLX -65%
NFLX -63%
SHOP -62%
CVNA -60%
ASAN -59%
RIVN -65%
SE -55%
MNDY -56%
ROKU -52%
ETSY -51%
TWLO -50%
PYPL -50%
MTTR -68%
TEAM -30%
SBUX -31%
ZS -31%
SPOT -47%

You get the point, don’t you? You understand the indices are an ASS and a lie — constructed to FOOL you into believing everything is all right? Things are far from all right, SIR. We have utter cataclysm underway in basically all of the hedge fund hotels. If it weren’t for energy names — we would be seeing blood flowing through the streets of wall. And that’s the part that scares me about commodity plays: CROWDED TRADE — a denizen for thrill seekers and hedge funders in blow up mode who might soon find themselves on the ass-end of liquidation orders.

I closed the session down 62bps, but positioned wisely in preparation for the coming fires, which will burn bright and with flare. You will see the embers drift upwards from your portfolio — gracing the scales as you coil — consuming your entire house with an inferno of rage.

I know this because I have seen the future, visited it, and these events have already happened.

I’m also wisely position in an array of natural gas, ag, and oil plays — as well as a hedge LONG TREASURIES. The long treasury hedge is designed to feed into my desires to preside over a deflationary vortex — as all of the Reddit plebeians get dragged into its whirlwind and shot out like cannons into walls of stone.

The Stocklabs algorithm trades closed out today and is now +18.4% for the year. The plan is to sit and wait for oversold signals and upon each one buy 33% stakes in TQQQ. I can do this just 3 times and I sell after 5 days.

The Quant is +9% for April and its purpose is to simply buy once per month based upon the SL algos and fuck the market in its place.

In summary, I am winning, but I am not happy.

I’ll get back into topical news stuff later on, maybe tomorrow. I can’t help but to gaze at the wonders of this market and see total and ferocious collapse just around the bend. NFLX misses and loses subs for the first time in a decade and people are back to buying tech stocks again.

NO SIR! You may not pass go.

It’s important to understand these brief sojourns into bullish behavior is typical in a BEAR MARKET and that’s exactly what we’re in. All of the drama felt in the beginning of the year will be x10 come this Fall — as NATO fights to save Warsaw from being partitioned by the New Soviet Union.

You’re all have a grande old time buying dips and pretending to be in a good economy. I get it — it’s fun to pretend. But eventually ALL ROOSTERS must come home to roost and there are wolves in the den ready to eat them whole.

I’m home shopping here in Cary, NC — so we’re out and about sashaying through the living rooms of my neighbors in search for “OMG A SUPER CUTE HOME” hopefully with some FARMLAND in the middle of a city — to serve the purposes of my wife’s fanciful delights. Some of the homes “look super old” or perhaps the photos on the internets “look really bad.” The good news is, I get to travel all around — FRANTICALLY ATTEMPTING TO OUTBID — people in a real estate market on monkey steroid cocks. Just last week I was OUTBID for a home that I offered 20% ABOVE ASK. No big deal — just offer 30% above the ask next time, on top of values +55% YOY.

This is how I win.

Market related news:

I AM LOSING AGAIN, off by 1.2% because my mind is infested with kitchen cabinets and “super cute and awesome yards.” The Dow is +300, NASDAQ off by 55 — but everything is fine and good and you need to shut the fuck up about inflation you piece of shit and just begin to understand that the prices you are paying, mind you, PALE IN COMPARISON to what the brave Ukrainians are facing — as they attempt to fend off Hitler’s invasion. We all know Ukraine is Czechoslovakia and at this point simply waiting for Hitler to invade Poland to give it another go.

Agi-prop disseminator and loss leader for the CIA is being exterminated in the after-hours — DOWN OVER 20% — on truly abysmal sales and earnings numbers. The company is citing aggressive competition — but the truth can discovered through anecdotal evidence.

"Our revenue growth has slowed considerably." $NFLX

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) April 19, 2022

Let me explain.

NETFLIX started off as a nice project to toss away the DVD and get the movies you like inside of your home via streaming. About a decade ago, maybe less, the company was on the verge of BANKRUPTCY. At that time they did a PIPE offering and Carl “Fuck You” Icahn was taking monster stakes in the company and then God blessed them with original content — HOUSE OF CARDS.

For the first few seasons, House of Cards was great, in a DC satanic sort of way. Quite literally, it was satanic. This paved the way for a sundry of ORIGINAL CONTENT and before you knew it — NETFLIX was allocating billions towards their own programming and people got erections for this idea. Why, Netflix could dish out awesome content right away and subscribers wouldn’t need to visit the movie theaters. As time went on and the content streamed out, Netlfix became synonymous with SUB PAR content, barely watchable screeds that evoked laughter once or twice per showing. In recent years, however, as the purple haired FUCKED inside the company seized control of content and placed transvestites in head roles — the content went from bad to 100% trash — all designed to accomplish several things.

In short:

White men are evil.
Christians are bad.
Black people are awesome.
Gay black people are the best.

As you could imagine, NETFLIX quickly became hated by at least 50% of the country, so it didn’t take long for people to CANCEL and replace it with other SHIT TIERED STREAMING SERVICES, such as the Groomer Network aka Disney.

These companies aren’t necessarily failing due to poor leadership or even terrible content. These people are pissing other people off, too many, and that’s why, on the margin, Netflix is a failure and will continue to fail until substantive change is made.

This morning I got caught holding some SHIT OILS and it all but ruined my day, as I have been harassed by losses all day. I am presently -1.47% and part of me is like “OMG LOOK AT HOW SUPER AWESOME AND COOL THE NASDAQ IS — I SHOULD BUY NOW.” But then my brain kicks in and stark lonely memories of buying into upheavals renders me still. The more I stew on it the more I HATE this tape.

I only hate it because it’s not crashing, to be honest.

“But Fly why do you want to see the markets crash?”

Because it serves my purposes and would FUCK ALL OF THOSE FAT BELLIED LANDED LORDS ATTEMPTING TO SELL ME HOMES +100% ABOVE WHERE THEY WERE LAST YEAR.

SIR — I am not interested in those prices. The fact of the matter is, this whole song and dance with the US economy and “the west” has carried on for too long. I get it — if we crash I will suffer too. I am okay with that, providing I am able to see the $JPM building vacated because everyone got fired.

Life isn’t always this obtuse and I do enjoy to play tennis, a martini on sunny days, and some French cuisine when I’m feeling decadent. NONETHELESS, FUCK THIS MARKET. However emotional I might be right now, I am smart enough not to be stupid and will not jump headlong into the concrete pool with the other permanent bears. Those fucking morons have bankrupted themselves 100 times since 2008.

THESE ARE MY HOLDINGS

MOS 10%
SWN 5%
FCX 5%
BPT 5%
SOXS 5%
YANG 5%

65% is in cash, waiting for a late day allocation as I peer into the future and attempt to predict tomorrow’s flavor.