RINSE, REPEAT: COMMODITIES DOWN, TECH UP

We’ve been traveling down this identical path all year. Commodities tank after an extended surge or some news of government rigging and that leads to a ferocious tech rally that always fails after a few days and then we’re back to chasing oils again.

How does one trade this tape and not lose one’s mind?

Perhaps having some semblance of diversification could help but to be honest this question I pose to you is also to myself because even though I’m up 30% YTD — I feel as if I’m losing my mind trading this shit. It is THE SAME as 2008 but I was a lot younger then, making far more money, and had a much more sanguine aspirational view on life. Things for me are much different at 45 with the kids all grown up and dealing with the substantive results of all of the crops I planted many years ago.

In short, you cannot be emotional about your ideas, nor can you believe you can only be right and everyone else wrong. If you shortened your holding period and went after current trends you could day and swing trade well enough to do as good as me. I admit to having a certain sixth sense, if that what you want to call it, about stocks and ideas about what will move next, especially themes. I’m really good hypo-fixating on stuff. But anyone can trade and make money doing it. Just trade small and move fast and accumulate a series of wins instead of a few big ones, and next thing you know YOU TOO can host a sparsely read blog discussing the virtues of risk aversion.

At some point investoors will begin to view treasuries as more favorable than say PG — as risk-free yields cross over the 3% threshold.

More importantly however is the effects jacked up rates will have on the new landed gentry in the housing market — as all of the Walmart cashiers sell their $400k homes and move out into homeless shelters and/or relocate to other Walmarts in Fly-over country in order to bask in their newly minted riches.

Meanwhile, working class folks in San Diego can obtain a 400 sq ft home for the very affordable rate of just $400k. Granted, they won’t be able to fit a bed in their home — but at least they’ll be close to the frigid pacific waters and be able to enjoy that wonderful California weather amidst FISH TACOS 365 days per annum.

The prices have doubled and the cost to borrow has doubled and yet housing is just fine — BOOMING even. This time is different from 2008 because back then all of the people who borrowed were poor. Nowadays, all of the HGTV flippers are rich, fat bellied landed lords who install cheaply outfitted kitchens and SUBWAY TILED bathrooms in order to extract MAXIMUM VALUE from their investments. We like shiny things and especially new things, so obviously the HGTV folks will make money forever.

Fuck you, I’m not blogging. I made you a chart to describe the events of today.

The others were bad, circa 2000, 2009, even 2012 when we all hoped and prayed the market would collapse under a EU debt crisis. Then Trump got elected in 2016 under the premise of canceling China, yet markets went even higher. Nothing it seems can ever ever stop the upward market of stocks, sort of a clandestine HYPER-INFLATION price fixing mechanism that selects groups of stocks to JIMMY RIG higher. You only need to pay close attention and notice the shifts.

Like today, all of tech is washed in blood as oil and other AG PLAYS run higher. My MOS and LXU positions are doing just fine — fuck you very much. I have no intention of selling — because I know what you already know and that is — PRICES ARE GOING UP! Walmart cashiers have stricken it RICH in their bullshit $200k homes DOUBLING to $400k in a year and have henceforth begun NEW DECORATIONS via HOMEGOODS and maybe if they’re feeling spendy — TARGET.

A new era of RICHNESS is upon you — as the meat grinder in Ukraine twists and turns and ships sink into blackened seas filled with blood, Target cashiers REFI their homes to buy NEW HOMES in order to become fat bellied landed lords — bestowing property upon their sub 100 IQ children to look after when they are good and dead at 54 for too much meatloaf and bourbon.

I will tell you now, I hate everything about this and I really need to calm myself down, else I’ll be dead at 54. I haven’t eaten a thing all day and have barely traded, up 1.65% basically sitting on stuff. If I tried to lose money, I probably couldn’t. I’m not special or a “GREAT GURU”, but instead competent and fearful enough to understand risk and trends. Trading isn’t hard you fucking idiots. Just stop trying to make killings every single day and you’ll do fine.

You will freeze and then starve to death, in no particular order. I’m not stupid and know one doesn’t die of frost in the summer. NEVERTHELESS, before you know it Fall is here and the temperatures will plunge and ALL OF YOUR FUCKING NATURAL GAS will be in LNG tankers en route for MORE PROFITABLE European venues — as the west fights its ALL IMPORTANT WAR to protect the interests of Victoria Nuland.

You

Are

Fucked

There’s nothing you can do about it to stop what is coming. The war is getting hot — because we’ve always wanted war with Russia — and now we have our chance to finally destroy the Orthodox Church. As we conduct our operations, Europe will need to FILL THEIR LNG TANKS because they wholly depend on Russia for toasting their balls in the winter, and keeping their shitty economies running. So, the best place for them to get that natty is from us — the land of the plentiful. The only side issue for you, naturally, is YOU WILL PAY. Natty will surge above $10 for sure and then maybe $20 and you will be charged $1,000 per month in gas bills. It’s all coming to a head now and soon enough BUG SANDWICHES WILL BE ON THE STARBUCKS MENU.

Also, because the retarded Europeans have no food, WHOLLY DEPENDENT AGAIN ON RUSSIA-UKRAINE-BELARUS — we will send them corn and wheat too. Are you getting the picture now? The Europeans are a retarded and decadent people who’ve let themselves be RUN INTO THE FUCKING GROUND by comfort. They have no armies, or food, or energy — 100% useless content of leftist ideologies run amok and straight into the buzz-saw of Russia.

I’m +145bps early going, 75% cash.

People often wonder why I sell everything at the open. Well, the data doesn’t lie. Here is the best performing group in April, commodities, on an hourly return basis for April.

SIR —

Do not believe. The market will trick you. The notion of elongated gains are a fiction. Fade all opens, crash all closes.

Happy Easter iBankCoin!

I’m not a religious man but I am, one could say, a moralist and someone who is seeking God and spiritual. I have gone from altar boy to atheist to seeking greater purpose during my life time and I suppose this is the path many men travel as they get older and attempt to grapple with the purpose of life and meaning. As the war wages in Ukraine, and I take leisurely walks and view beautiful things, it hurts me inside to know other men just like me, who feel just like me, are faced with a much starker reality.

To all of my readers, thank you for support and the time you spend on the site reading my missives. I hope you health, wealth, and happiness.

Le Fly

First a few headlines just to get it out of the way.

Ukrainian governor says city of Mariupol wiped off the face of the earth

Russia warns Czechia against supplying weapons to Ukraine, Prague says won’t respond to blackmail.

ZELENSKY WARNS ‘ELIMINATION’ OF LAST UKRAINIAN TROOPS TRAPPED IN MARIUPOL WOULD END MOSCOW PEACE TALKS

The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced that the Mariupol region has been completely cleared of Ukrainian forces.

ZELENSKY SAYS KYIV NOT INTERESTED IN ANY TYPE OF NEGOTIATION WITH MOSCOW AFTER DESTRUCTION OF THE UKRAINE’S MILITARY FACTORY

RUSSIAN MILITARY AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM HAS SHOT DOWN A UKRAINIAN MILITARY TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT WHICH WAS DELIVERING A LARGE BATCH OF WEAPONS BY WEST – LOCAL MEDIA

REPORT: RUSSIA TO FORMALLY DECLARE WAR ON UKRAINE IN RESPONSE TO SINKING OF MOSKVA, WHICH WILL INCLUDE MASS CONSCRIPTION AND MOBILIZATION OF RUSSIAN MILITARY *

Let’s be abundantly clear with what’s going on here without me saying too much. My opinions are meaningless, who did what and how we got here. The only important aspect to all of this is power. The US govt owns Ukraine. They are protecting Ukraine as if it was our 51st state, minus sending in US soldiers to die for it. The US govt is NOT a democracy, more like a kleptocracy run by very evil people who dislike the people they govern. We do not have freedom of speech, movement, or anything that once resembled America. My opinions will soon become less advertised here because we are heading to war and those who speak out against power will be corrected.

The peace talks with Russia and Ukraine are over. Ukraine sank Russia’s flagship cruiser and even tweeted about it from an official Ukranian account, mocking them. Now Russia bombs out a MILITARY FACTORY and Zelensky said “OMG PEACE TALKS ARE SOOO OVER NOW.”

The peace talks were never on, so calling them over is a bit overly dramatic. Russia is on the verge of enacting total war on not only Ukraine but its neighbors. THE WORLD WAR EVERYONE SO EAGERLY WANTS SHALL BE GIFTED TO THEM and rest assured — IT WILL NOT BE FUN.

While I am sure the neocons and neoliberals and all of the other fucking neocunts in the country will RELISH at the site of DEAD RUSSIANS, all praise to Moloch, there will be severe reprisals and you will see that first in Europe and then possibly here. Bear in mind, ICBMs, nuclear or not, cannot be intercepted. But this is what our government wants and they’ve convinced so many people via Twitter and CNN that the Russian military is a cake-walk — that our transvestite brigades can fuck them into submission — just like we did in Kabul.

Nevertheless, nevertheless and so on and so forth. The war is coming and your gas station will be closed — DUE TO RATIONING — and you will finally eat a BUG SANDWICH and the stock market will halt until the nuclear fallout stops raining radioactive dust on traders. We are in a FUCKED TIMELINE because we are governed by FUCKED PEOPLE who really do seek to depopulate you and in fact — WE DESERVE IT — because we gave them permission.

King Dick.

Every time people trash talk the dollar there is always dollar defenders who pop out from the woodworks to say stuff like “meeehhhh, the dollar is currency reserve. Meeeeeh the dollar is up vs other currencies. There is a shortage of meeeeeeh dollars.”

For many years we had to good. Or did we?

Let’s examine a few things.

Overall wage growth has been ticking up after a spate of minimum wage increases for the poors. On the whole, normal slobs receive a 3% slap to their cocks per annum.

College tuitions is laughably cutting all dicks off. Now with child plus loans, parents are TETHERED to the $300,000 loans their brats kids take out from their schools, getting  meaningless degrees in being brainwashed by communist scum. Parents will DIE under the burden of these debts and after they die their homes will be seized by these colleges so that they may add more billions to their endowments.

If you have a family and want good health insurance, expect to pay $2,000 per MONTH you fucks. Not only that, LOOK AT THE GROWTH, as brain dead boomers milk the system and visit their specialists 7 times per week and doctor magicians make all of the money disappear into their yachts.

BEHOLD you fuckers the price of those commodities above the past year. You see that shit? YOUR DOLLARS ARE GARBAGE. I RATHER GET PAID IN GOLD BARS YOU FUCKS.

“GOLD ISNT ANY GOOD, MEEEEEH, LOOK AT THE SPY INSTEAD”.

You dumb son of a bitches. Do not compare gold to stocks, but to the fucking dollar. Over the past year gold is +12% vs the dollar and +50% over 5 years.

END GAME: The Russian war is causing the dollar to RAPIDLY LOSE VALUE IN A CLANDESTINE WAY. Have you see the price of real estate recently?

You are not alarmed because you have been comparing the dollar vs OTHER BULLSHIT FIAT CURRENCIES AND NOT VS THE STUFF YOU ACTUALLY BUY.

SIR — your fucking buying power is COLLAPSING. Russia, China, India, Brazil, Iran and others are starting to trade commodities in other currencies. The end is near and we have CROSSED THE FUCKING RUBICON, as America bleeds out $32T in debt and EUROPE BLEEDS OUT, totally fucked and only saved in 2012 by Germany, who is about to BLEED OUT due to Russia TURNING OFF THE FUCKING GAS.

What more evidence do you need to convince you that your dollars are rapidly declining in value????

Good nite.

Imagine finding someone on the internets, a professional manager of money, who talked extreme shit and for years you doubted his prowess only to at some point fall dumbfounded by his live portfolio, accessible to all members of Stocklabs, and then he takes $100k to $650k in two years without margin and without options — just trading fast and hard like the wind.

And then imagine still believing he is not the single best trader living in America today.

SIRS — I BRING YOU HAPPY TIDINGS OF CALAMITY AND SUFFERING SOON TO BE ENTRENCHED IN EVER FACET OF SOCIETY. All of the money I make now is for nothing, since it’ll all be for spoiled in the great fires. Nevertheless, I press on because I’m stubborn and this is, quite honestly, what I was born to do.

Naturally, I deeply regret giving up money management back in 2017 in favor of clown shows here on the site and inside Stocklabs. Nevertheless, I’ve made my bed and now I lie in it — under duress no doubt — but nevertheless I am thriving still.