STOCKLABS WINS AGAIN

I hope I’m not wasting my time here and not just talking to a bunch of yogurt eating muscle heads.

This morning we got another Stocklabs mean reversion EXTREME oversold signal, which prompted me in an account I dedicate only to the SL algos to buy a 2nd tranche of TQQQ. There were tells early on, such as SAAS stocks +30bps while markets were at lows.

SAAS closed +3.7% and everything swam higher.

One of the things that made me very bullish was an esoteric reading that was once discussed heavily by a former members of ours, Jungle. The % of large caps rated bullish was at 2.8%. In the past anything less than 10% was reason to raise an eyebrow. Anything less than 5% meant blood was flowing in the streets and time to buy.

SL flashed 10 yr OS on both Friday and today.

Needless to say, the NASDAQ face ripped higher and I am 95% sure this face ripping rally will spill into tomorrow’s tape.

Since I’ll be traveling tomorrow — blogging will be light — but that shouldn’t stop you from trading and trading well.

Be long.

Whenever people are soiling themselves in their pantaloons — buy.

We are seeing bottoming action in numerous sectors, especially biotech. This is how the market could play out today.

FACE RIPPER — everything up. Maybe too easy.

MIXED RIPPER — biotech/tech up but commodities lower

CRASH THE CLOSE — everything sells off because fuck you.

If we crash the close, this would be as gift. But if you’re all in now — your pink levels will be 100000%. So in order to prevent that, avoid falling into the trap of thinking THIS IS IT, THIS IS THE BOTTOM. While it’s true, it might be. It’s also true, maybe not.

Just because Stocklabs is screaming OS now and we are at technicals levels that demand long only — I am not leaning all the way in. I am still 85% cash, down 1% — avoiding temptation because the big move, whenever it comes, will not only rip faces off but entire heads.

All of your favorite commodity stocks are being routed, as I’ve bee outlining since last week. The Alamo for stocks was in the oils, ag, gold, and other basic resource plays. Well, they’re all down heavily the past week, with GUSH -26% during that time span.

LISTEN TO ME VERY CLOSELY.

Inside Stocklabs just 3.3% of stocks are rated boolish. This is the gold standard for our oversold mean reversion signals. While it’s true, THIS TIME MIGHT BE DIFFERENT. Most likely, it’s the same shit.

I will not be hedging today and instead opt for long only ETFs. I am down 1.1% today, tempted several times to buy more. However, given the liquidation aspect to this tape, I want to make sure my buys are timed advantageously. This is, in my opinion, a long only tape now.

The trading in TWTR is still retarded, after the board is said to ACCEPT Elon’s offer of $54.20 — the stock is barely trading above $51 on an all cash offer. Apparently there must be a lot of arbs who think otherwise, foreseeing some sort of roadblock in the way towards this deal getting done. I have no position and would rather just see TWTR removed from my screen.

In more important news, we are seeing WHOLESALE LIQUIDATION of the commodity trade. Massive declines in oil, gold, copper and aluminum. Without thinking too hard about it, I just sense this crowded traded is being unwound and inflation seems to be abating most likely due to economic actively, or lack thereof.

NASDAQ futs are -45, a big improvement from 1 hr ago. We are oversold and I think we bounce soon.

I just got back from Davidson, NC — on a long sojourn from Cary to Charlotte and I’m exhausted. It appears futures are soft again and with it commodities. If we continue getting routed like this — the market will begin to consider it pricing in recession or slowing economic output. If that occurs and nothing new out of Russia, there is a chance we could see oil get absolutely routed alongside all other commodities, similar to what we saw in 2008.

This will not end neatly, however. And before this deflations cycle does end, if that’s what’s about to happen, people will begin to lose their jobs en masse. Rates will collapse and by summer the Fed will once again be out of touch with reality — tightening into a hard economic collapse.

This is all setting up wonderfully for a Fall crash.

Goodnite.

There’s nothing you can do about it. I am going to place the blame entirely on Biden and you also can’t do anything about that either. As dumb as Trump was, he didn’t have a crackhead for a son and he didn’t purposely try to get us into a World War and FUCK UP the entire nation via RAMPANT inflation. These sons a bitches are COLLAPSING the US economy on purpose. Prove me wrong, you son of a bitch.

BEHOLD THE PAEGENTRY OF LOSSES. You awaken to a much lower 401k plan on a daily basis and then get RAPED at the Whole Foods when attempting to buy small pieces of meat for supper.

We do not need to look at charts like children or get emotional about the better days we once had like women. You are in a BEAR FUCKING MARKET and you will endure it, internalize the pain and deal with it. You will not buy dips and you will only BELIEVE or be FOOLED — because the entire West is en route for collision with the East and from my vantage point — we are outnumbered.

Never underestimate evil, so I am sure we will prevail and enclose the yoke of oppression of those we conquer for the next 100 years. But none of that is boolish for stocks and none of these rate hikes is good for your 401k, soon to be 200.5k.

Let me be clear in case you’re retarded and lacked the composure to read any of the stuff above: STOCKS WILL BE CUT IN HALF FROM HERE.

WE ARE OVERSOLD ON OUR 10YR ALGOS INSIDE Stocklabs. The percent of large caps bullish is now 7.6%, a metric that is nearly full proof when under 10% when timing bottoms for mean reversion trades.

LISTEN TO ME:

Buy when the crowd is scared — but never believe in the future being bright and cheerful. I took measured positions into the final hour in the NASDAQ, FANG stocks, oils and ag but hedged with UVXY at 10% and 60% cash. Because I am a great trader, I managed a gain of 1.67% today, in spite of the fact that I was 80% cash when the day began. My shorts worked so wonderfully, so beautifully, I enjoyed outsized gains in spite having very little risk.

I will never teach you how to trade well because I have no interest in it. Traders aren’t made — but born. Moreover, people who do well in the markets and sell you the idea they can make you great too are lying cocksuckers. If you want to trade well the answer is simple: copy whatever the hell I am doing inside Stocklabs and live happily ever after.

Good day.

When you’re buying into a single safe haven as the world burns around you, you must be cognizant of several things.

1. No one is safe.
2. Eventually your trade will become crowded and ruined.

This is precisely how it happened in 2008 and it’s happening now again with coal, ag, oils and soon steel.

CLF posted great numbers, ripped 10% higher, and is now down.

The entire market is heaving over and I don’t want to get too dramatic here, as I am barely profiting from this collapse, up 1.3% with 78% cash. I will admit, however, we are oversold and we can bounce Monday.

But let’s not be stupid and see this for what it is: a rout. The market is sick and all of the safe havens smoked out.

Trade accordingly.

Perhaps it’s a bit drama Kingish to suggest “OMG SOME FUNDS ARE DEFINITELY BLOWING UP NOW” but it’s always a possibility.

This morning oils are bid and everything else, or at least most stocks are down. I’m only holding shorts now, 78% cash, because the commodity trade has me a little worried. Again, I might be falling into unnecessary FUD. Not sure yet.

Basically everything is bearish now, save old man divvy stocks, and interest rates are soaring and input costs remain elevated. Not a bullish set up worth exploring, if I might be so bold.

This just in.

FINLAND WILL SUBMIT AN APPLICATION FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP IN THE COMING WEEKS; FINLAND MEMBERSHIP WILL BE ACCEPTED BY THE SUMMER – FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE

Context:

RUSSIA SAYS IF FINLAND OR SWEDEN JOIN NATO THERE WILL BE “DETRIMENTAL” MILITARY CONSEQUENCES pic.twitter.com/fYHhZ2Bj0n

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 25, 2022

RUSSIA'S MEDVEDEV SAYS: IF SWEDEN AND FINLAND JOIN NATO THEN RUSSIA WILL TAKE MEASURES IN BALTIC

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) April 14, 2022

This is an escalation. There are two ways to look at this and two ways alone. The leaders of Finland aren’t afraid of provoking military conflict with Russia, whom they believe “have gone crazy.” In other words, they are okay with doing things that will directly cause the deaths of their citizenry.

The flip side is independence from Russia means being able to make decisions for Finland without fear of reprisal. If they folded on the non existent NATO matter, why Russia might ask for Finnish ports to protect them against a German invasion of Leningrad.

No matter what side you fall on, this is worse for the specter of peace and only hastens the war path NATO is on with Russia.