The Foot is Being Firmly Pressed on the Pedal

Bernanke is going to punch your lights out. If your bet is against the Fed, you are a terrible gambler.

“The Devil” seems to think PAMT will explode higher, based upon rumors and other things that can equate to a “gigantic short squeeze.”

I am bored with VHC. It’s been dead money for almost a month. In the near term, I like my chances with BX, APO and USG.

I don’t invest in biotechs because of AFFY. Once again, this catastrophe proves my point that the sector is nothing more than a roll at the old wheel of fortune, pinless hand grenades being tossed about in the old pool. Avoid the sector unless you have an in at the FDA.

CWEI is of great interest to me. However, the volume is so thin. It will be very hard for me to get in, let alone get out. Generally speaking, I like to own stocks that trade 500k shares per day.

Last but not least: DDD

I once owned the name and missed out on a huge run. Now the stock is getting drilled due to nefarious newsletters. I hate battleground stocks–but this seems overdone. Speaking of overdone, I am very close to initiating a long position in Apple July 600 calls.

CWEI

I’m doing some work on some distressed companies whose share prices have dropped more than 50% over the past year. Up until 3 months ago, the list was littered with solar stocks.Since they’ve run up, the list is left with nefarious education companies, as well as debt laden oil and gas producers.

One company that caught my attention is CWEI.

They are about 2/3rds oil, 1/3 natty, heavily hedged at about 80% of production. The interesting aspects about the company is the amount of property they own in oil rich territories like the Delaware Basin and Eagle Ford shale. In Eagle Ford alone, they have 100,000 acres. The reason why the stock is down is due to debt, saddled with about $350,000,000 in debt. However, the company is managing its affairs and has another $100 million left to spend recklessly.

The acreage alone, which are in the two richest fields in America, are worth $720,000,000. That’s not production from their current wells. Clearly, the stock is very undervalued. Their problem is financing. They have too much debt to work the fields themselves. They have $7 billion worth of drilling, which means they need to execute joint ventures or sell some properties in order to finance the rest.

At the current rate, it will take them 30 years to develop their properties. Clearly, this company would be better off under the management of a much bigger company. Merger anyone?

There’s a reason why the stock is down 57% yoy and it has nothing to do with the company being managed properly. Its CEO is 81 years old and I sense that any change at the top might light a fire to the shares.

Oil oil everywhere and no money to finance drilling.

Old Buzzard, Clayton Williams Jr.–majority shareholder of CWEI

They intend to divest from certain investments, using the proceeds to pay down the debt, awfully reminiscent to both WNR and FTK stories. The only question is: will the company find a way to get the earnings machine going again, helping shareholders get back to a $100 share price?

Certainly it would help if oil and gas prices rose dramatically.

I’ll be doing more work on this throughout the week. Any feedback is welcomed.

Here is last qt. earnings call.

Fly
This Afternoon I Was Corrected
Here Are 18 Trading Ideas For Your Monkey Brains
The Official 2013 Review of Select Blogs from Around the Web-o-Sphere

Chess
Listen to Lumber
Flirting with Precious Danger
Perspective, Perspective

RC
2013 Final Four
The Flood Gates Are About To Open

Woodshedder
Gold Getting Crushed, Crashed Beneath Lower Bollinger Bands. Is It a Buy Here?
$SPY Has Traded for 10 Days Now Without a Big Down Day. Does it Matter?

Rhino
Never Thought I’d See the Day
Walking Dead = Fast Money

Raul3
Tips For BUYING THE DIPS
The Next Big Trade (IT IS BIG)

Jakegint
Were You Patient?
This Is About Par for the Course

Scott Bleier
Dissociative Collapse

Caine Thaler
Breaking Out

Elizamae
Portfolio 02/20/13: EMASCULATED

News

Documentary: Park Avenue – Money, Power, and the American Dream 

The Gods of the 21st Century 

Pentagon Informs Congress of 800k Civilian Furloughs if Sequestration Takes Effect on March 1st 

Rumors Circulate on Arrest Warrant for the Pope Regarding Allegations of Child Sex Crimes 

Need a Hedge for Those Equities & Commodity Plays? Try Greenbacks for a Change 

Today was good, erasing all of yesterday’s losses. Now I have to work on reversing the tragedy of Wednesday. I put some money to work in APO at the end of the day. I really like the asset managers as a low risk play on equities. They have many ways to beat estimates, one of which is through the issuance of stock–whether that be an ipo or secondary. Either way, I am a buyer of BX and APO. I should’ve bought WETF back yesterday; but I missed it like a nerd.

My shorts, AG, CCL, declined too–making today a near perfect session. If it wasn’t for the homosexuality of BZH, I’d be slapping people in the face with hot slices of roasted beef today.

I’m gonna calm down now. My nerves are always on edge. I’m a big, giant, ball of energy–moving from one project to the next.  I have a lot of responsibilities and grow weary of the mundane, so I need to keep it moving, else I might explode and commit triple homicides.

On an unbelievable side note, my good friend, “The Devil”, saw Ben “the beard” Bernanke at an airport recently and had a chance to introduce himself and have a small chat. The Devil asked Ben about gold and he retorted “there is no inflation and there will be no inflation.” Now the story will start to sound slightly unbelievable. He said Bernanke furthered by saying “I’m going to keep my foot on the pedal.”

Wow.

I started a new position in APO.

Disclaimer: If you buy APO because of this post, the next time you receive a blow job in a car, a homeless man will surprise you by opening the door and beating you senseless with his 40 ounce of malted liquor. And, you may lose money

This is one of my favorite moments in iBC history. It should be remembered, shared, and cherished by all.

Here are some classic moments from that momentous thread.

Full Post

Let me be clear about my bearish position on gold/silver miners. I’ve owned EXK and AG plenty of times over the years and have made money owning them almost every single time. But something is wrong with the industry. Dare I say these companies might be in the 2nd inning of a generational top?

Last week Goldman Sachs predicted a top in gold, saying the price wouldn’t hit $1,900 for another 20 years. All that aside, the raw commodities have done exceptionally well over the years, haven’t they? But why haven’t the miners done well?

Clearly with gold/silver at or near highs, the miners should be basking in coin, lavishing hefty dividends to their loyal subjects aka shareholders.

Unfortunately, the exact opposite is true. PAAS pays a 1% divvy, for crying out loud.

Look at the fundamentals of some gold/silver stocks listed below.

Now have a look at the much lampooned social media sector.

You will find both sectors to have many companies with rich price/sales ratios, as well as PEs. But what you won’t find in gold or silver is revenue and earnings growth. I’d rather take my chances in a richly valued growth stock, than a richly valued dog. Plus, with the amount of debt that is accumulating around the world, it’s only a matter of time before government’s start nationalizing these mines, leaving shareholders of mining companies left holding the Carnival Cruise feces bag (extra Triumph).

In the event that the raw commodities accelerate to the downside, there will be a shareholder Exodus–further damaging the morale and position of loyal, hardened, investors.

If you must own gold, just buy GLD.

Look for a earnings miss next quarter.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQL2m5o3tDg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rV7t7joUXNc

I thought we’d board the cocaine train to hedonism this morning, celebrating all day long–partaking in a great many frivolities. Instead, it looks like cowards are selling into strength, scared to pieces over sequestration. This is all very disconcerting, as the market needs to truck higher to support the revenue base of the United Steaks of America.

I have numerous positions, some are merely flings, others long term commitments. I’ve held CHD, RS, KMB, WM and PEP for almost a year. But there is one thing that I feel is a certainty and that is substantially lower gold/silver stocks.

They are broken. Hedge funds who are focused on the miners shall be liquidated. I declare we should free that money and let someone else more capable manage it! Forced selling will occur and the miners will suffer. They should’ve made more money by now. Instead, due to waste and stupidity, these miners are still trying to make money–even though prices have soared over the past 10 years.

They are a disgrace to capitalism.

I am short AG with conviction.

Many of you submitted blogs for review. I took the time out of my day to read them. This is what I think of them.

Rhino: The majority of you know Rhino, him being an interim tabbed blogger of mine, popular vote winner in the great blog elections of 2012. I have an inside track into the work habits of Rhino, since he writes for the site. Without a doubt, he has what it takes to be a successful blogger. There is frequent engagement on his blog, as his articles either evoke love or unparalleled hatred amongst his readers. Either way, he gets them to read and comment and that’s good. He posts at a minimum of 3 times per day, keeping content fresh and relevant. As for criticisms: I feel the grammar and spacing of paragraphs can be made to be easier on the reader. Also, from time to time, Rhino comes across as a guy who just got done sticking a rambo knife into someone’s abdomen. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. However, one must learn to balance the insane with the competent, in order to garner trust from the reader. Grade: B+

Trader Habits: He doesn’t post enough. He has a few recent posts, then it looks like he went on a cocaine binge for weeks at a time, spitting on his readers, leaving them to die of thirst in the desert. Because of that lack of fresh content and relevant material, the site is rendered to be useless–subsequently without traffic and reader participation. That’s too bad, especially since the content is pretty good, save the sales pitch stamped at the end of the post. I can tell you from first person experience, running a 7 figure premium service, it’s not smart business to talk business all the time–if you know what I mean. Grade: D

Following Price Action: I hate the name of the site. It reminds me of a dog site that might be named “Walk the Dog” or ‘Clean up Poop”. The layout is clean–but the content is MIA. Do you people really think success can be accomplished with zero effort? I understand that some of you do it as a hobby and that’s cool. But I am only interested in serious minded bloggers, men who want to share wisdom, frailties and personality. It appears this gent is quite active on Twitter, but ignore the site. That makes no sense. Twitter should be used to bolster web traffic, not the other way around. There isn’t any traffic or reader participation to speak of, due to lack of effort. On the bright side, the content is pleasant, light and decent enough to check in from time to time.  Grade: D

Ringer Capital: My guess he is a college kid, tooling around on the internets, throwing mashed potatoes at the screen after he’s done. This site isn’t updated enough. Moreover, the last post was a god damned thesis on a 20 cent penny stock. Look, kid, get your head from out of the gutter. You can write and have some talents. Keep your posts short, to the point, exciting, and often. Then get back to me. Grade: D

Greedy Picks: Sometimes I feel the blogosphere is to twitter what newspapers are to the internet. Then I look at iBankCoin’s revenue statements and remember that there is money to be made here. What the hell is wrong with you Twitter fiends? This blog isn’t updated. Content is decent, but too sparse. He does spend plenty of time chinwagging on Twitter, however. Grade: D

BCLund: I know this guy because he heckles me on Twitter. This site has a stupid car as a header. I’d like to see that car in a horrific accident and sent to the old car junkyard for good. This bozo has some personality, but prefers to defecate on himself while tweeting, instead of working a real man’s job on the blogosphere. Once again, the blog lacks content and honorable web design. Grade: D-

Cracked Market: Finally a decent blogger. This site is updated regularly, not enough to be called a top tier site, but enough to avoid being graded a D. Right away I enjoyed his post. The layout was clean to the point and logical. But then I thumbed down and was chagrined to find EVERY GOD DAMNED POST IN THE SAME FORMAT. Excuse me Sir, are you a robot? If I stabbed you with a knife, would you bleed red blood, or white android fluids? His free subscription suggestion is a little confusing. I was expecting something of the premium nature there. People don’t want stuff emailed anymore. Boxes are loaded with spam as it is. The last thing I want is an excerpt from some stock market creep, robotting his way into my lavish life. Nonetheless, I like the content. Grade: B

The Housing Time Bomb: Are you kidding me with this site name and the big stupid bear on the top of the page? This is like having a “KILL ALL VIETNAMESE” blog in 1980. It might’ve been cool in 1970; but dude, it’s 1980. You just look strange (danger!) and psycho. It’s a bear blog and the content should be placed elsewhere, on a new site, under a new name. Post often and bring hell. There are lots of like minded people out there who’d be happy to join your cult. Grade: F

Body Building Secrets Live: Marc has been a huge supporter of the site for many years. I know he’s a big fitness guy and loves to trade stocks. His site is purely fitness and is loaded with lots of great information. I’m not sure if the site needs to be updated more, since he has a “freemium”style going–a little free info for a lot of paid info. He might get tons of clicks through google for services. I just don’t know. If I was him, I’d buy lots of google adwords and take a more active approach on Twitter to get customers. Hell, this is one of those services that’s actually worth trying, considering it can save your life. My strongest suggestion is to post more content, written or video. Grade: A-

eWallStreeter: Ditch the pop up thingy right away. The cost/benefit isn’t there to piss off new readers with that thing. I’d click right off the site, if I wasn’t commissioned to review it.  Okay, I really hate this site. The design is dreadful and the ads piss me off. I click on an article and that stupid pop up thingy gets in my face again. I see he is boasting being the “favorite website of CNBCs Fast Money.” Really? HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE? The layout is an abomination–too busy and wasting good space with inane subjects. Stop it. Grade: F-

On the wine scale: I love wine, so find myself biased to like this site. The genre is under represented, so reading anything about wine is interesting to me. The content is good, but he’s ruining any chances of greatness by committing basic and avoidable blogging sins. First off, you need more content. Also, fix the layout. Just have it going top to bottom in one column. Thirdly, post PICTURES and videos. People who are serious about wine like to see the bottle or the glass and want more information. I want to know where the vineyard is, its history, other vineyards in the area who produce popular wines, and EVERYTHING about the taste. It’s not good enough to say “I liked this wine.” How about the tannins, alcohol content, drinkability? What does it pair well with, etc? Grade: C

Run By Beats: This rap site hasn’t been updated since June. Grade: F

The Buttonwood Tree: This site was designed by a crazy person. Free advice, if you do not have a web designer, just go with a free template that is simple. Having the big BUTTONWOOD people header is simply a waste of space. No one cares about that, just like no one cares about the drivel below the fold. I still don’t know what that is supposed to be. Plus, you don’t update the site, ever. Grade: D

Rick J’s Handicap Picks: Truth be told, I’ve never bet on a sporting event in my life, so this is foreign to me. I imagine if I was a degenerate OTB guy looking for some hot picks, a site like this might come in handy. But Rick, baby, you need more personality. I want you to tell me how awesome you are and how all of the horses fear your whip when you visit the track. If I am merely a degenerate OTB guy, then you should be a super degenerate, doing youtube vids, smoking cigars and counting all of the money from your handicapped winnings. Grade: C

Yahoo Finance: I love Marissa Mayer and would leave my wife and 3 kids to make sex to her, if I was some sort of base, primal, creature– whose sole focus was to procreate and do drugs. Grade: A

Independent Capitalist: I needed a magnifying glass to read this site. Fix the fonts pal. It’s possible that some old folk might stumble upon your site and would mistake it for a black hole, instead of a rather nice, well read and seasoned blogger. He has potential. He sounds like he’s in the business of money management, or is simply a seasoned investor. With a better layout and honorable web design, I might read this site on occasion. Grade: B

3ddHedgeInvestments: What is this nonsense? Who let this nutcase out from the asylum, with this lime green color and retarded donate button at the top of the site, captivating me into believing he is using donations to finance terrorism? Why is every single letter CAPS LOCKED and why is there a god damned 500 word disclaimer on every post? Are you an idiot, or just play one on the internets? Stop blogging at once. Grade: F-

The Trading Wife: Decent site with lots of content. She has lots of ideas and has a nice, clean, spreadsheet that tracks her successes and failures. Although I know who she is from iBC/PPT/12631 and feel she is capable of handling a premium service, I’m afraid as a new reader I’d be put off by it. Not because of the suggestion of subscribing to someone who knows stocks, but due to the newness of the site. Frankly, premium services are hard to maintain and even harder to build. You cannot start a blog and offer a service right away. You need to put in sweat equity. All that aside, I like the site, but would change the design slightly. Grade: B

Aleph Blog: This is a tier one site, run by someone who is extremely capable. But why is the comments section so dead? Clearly he knows his stuff and produces plenty of content. Maybe he’s more popular at Real Money? Either way, he needs to promote and engage better. Grade: A

iBergamot: This site is a god damned mess. Change the name of the site immediately. Why is there a moon widget on the side? I want to punch that thing in the face. Stay focused, clean up the site. Websites are not christmas trees. You don’t have to put a toy on every branch. This is a gentleman’s business and your website should reflect that. Your paragraph structure is screwy too. It’s too bad, since this site is updated frequently with decent content. Grade: C-

Slope of Hope: My so called arch nemesis, TIM Knight and his burlap’d blog. If I was a bear, I’d love this site. It has tons of content and plenty of crazy people in the comments section making fun of perma-bull sites, like iBankCoin. The only problem with this site is TIM isn’t very good, at least that’s what I am told. From what I gather, there is a lot of smoke and mirrors at play here. Granted, it’s been a tough slog being a bear these past 5 years. I do, however, commend him for keeping up his evil, sinister, plan to break the back of western finance, via blogging. My sole suggestion is to fire all of the other bloggers writing for the site. No one visits TIM’s cave for strawberries. They want the Knight in burlap’d armor. Grade: A+

Herd Mentality:  UPDATE your freakin’ blog pal. I really like the design and clean layout. This site would have potential if someone actually wrote on it. And don’t make me click for more articles after just 2 posts, you idiot. Stop whoring for page views and make it an enjoyable experience for your readers. There should be at least 8 fresh articles per page. Just so you know, aside from news, I post 5-8 times per day. ChessnWine posts 10 times per day. Work. Grade: D

SovaTrades: Interesting. This fine gent is an iBankCoin blogger network blogger and just posts links to his iBC post on his blog. A little confusing. If I might suggest, duplicate the iBC posts on your blog or ditch your blog altogether. Also, ditch the paypal donate button. No one ever donates and it makes you look homeless. You don’t need the donation, so don’t ask for it. On your iBC blog, you post plenty of charts, but hardly any written content. You’re one of those chart guys. Truth is, you can be a chart guy and annotate the charts with clues. Either way, you are incomplete, pal. Grade: C

Is this the top: Ha! Very clever. Grade: A+

Note: Here was my last blog review. I bet most of those bastards quit blogging and became sanitation workers.