I poured my heart into this whole blogging thing. Even though I am ridiculously busy, and don’t get paid for this, I still pour my heart out. My posts about the Iraq Invasion are not all that easy for me to write, so why would I do that? I honestly don’t know. To get my name out there? For what? If I can’t get enough viewers to get paid here, why would I try to get paid for this elsewhere? I mean seriously, how much do the best bloggers make? I’m not bitching, it’s a mistake on my part.
I was going to give you all this reasoning, but it’s not worth the breath. People still come on here and say stupid shit about my stock picks, yet, I just provided them with one name that returned 70%, STP. I won the March Madness Contest with GILD, and I never bitched about not receiving prize money like the previous year’s ingrate, and I don’t want any money, but why would someon say anything bad about that? I did the hard work, and go lucky.
I try to reply as fast as possible to people’s comments and tweets. For what? Why should I care? I’m not reaping any benefits, in fact I am making my life harder. I’m really not even into trading anymore. Why would I put that much work into it, and tell you each of my trades real-time, when I am only making 1/10, plus whatever the returns are for my money? That’s nothing, really. I can’t live on this. I would have to manage well over $100 mm just to be comfortable, and– at the current rate –wouldn’t be able to buy a house until I am 40.
When I first got into the game it was brainstorming and trading/investing with The Dr and others, but no one ever called someone a “dumbass” just for stating a thesis they didn’t agree with. Then I get on Twitter and finance sites, and there are all these armchair QB’s, calling me all sorts of names. I have really thick skin, and don’t care, but every time I get a comment alert, I go and look at it. If it’s some negative bull shit, I just wasted my time. I hate having my time wasted. I’m afraid of no man, and am a man of honor.
I don’t need to deal with that bullshit for no return. I’ve been working on my own for almost a year now, while the Dr works on building his core fund. I don’t have any picks from Gabriel or Mohammed, so all I have is myself– and hard work. Sure, there’s lots of luck involved, and the thought about waking up to a position getting kicked in the dirt, isn’t a good recipe for sleep. Yet I take the time to share my findings. Maybe I am neolithic, but I believe that one shouldn’t speak ill of someone, if they are not ready to meet the other in physical combat. Why should I let someone call my family and me all sorts of horrible things with no recourse, is enduring that civilized?
I have to go get some actual work done. I don’t havetime for little boys in men’s bodies– though they often have the bodies of little boys –to disrespect me. I accept any challenge that is not of a nature that I cannot physically complete, e.g. a 20 mile run; as my knees will literally fall apart. Whether it be writing a scholarly essay, discussing the constitution, or relating historical events to the present, I am game for any contest.
I love to compete, and I love to conquer fear. Much gratitude to all that read my stuff regularly and commented religiously. I really appreciate all of your support. And much gratitude to the men of the #12631, and all those who had my back. I don’t need to hide behind anything, this is really me.
If you’re ever in San Francisco and want to talk shop, feel free to hit me up RhinoCapitalMGMT [at] gmail [dot] com.
The name is Drew.
Beware the Ravens.
Please excuse my absence today. I made this move, timestamped on Twitter:
AKA, “what having big balls looks like.” Well where was “The Rhino?” I was talking to my coder/programmer for the last three hours. We are both rather savage fellows, sharing the same urge to “give everyone the finger.” He wants a Lamborghini Aventador, and I want a house. He also lives in Queens, if that says something.
Instead of just walking away with some good work done on one idea, we came away with two. But, he’s already built almost all of the framework for the other one, so I just have to brainstorm on how to create the interest and take market share away from sites that already do the same thing. Don’t worry, it’s not finance or social media related.
There is a ton of work to be done, but he can write the code in his sleep, drunk. And, I always figure out someway to make things work, so I don’t think it should be a problem. The ol’ stuffy fools with Princteton MBAs better be watching their backs, because we will take your crappy site and app, make it way faster and better looking, and sell it for less.
With no offices, from opposite sides of the country, wearing our PJ’s, we are going to give the “Old Guard” both middle fingers. They’ll be sitting there in their big corner offices, behind their big wooden desks, necks choked by their silk ties, watching their companies get tossed off cliffs, like the defective children they are. This is Sparta, not the country club in the Hamptons, your degree, and family name mean nothing, and will give you no protection, against the blade I wield.
“But aren’t you afraid of the backlash?” Were Gates or Jobs? I AM SCARED OF NO MAN! Or any entity, neither is “The Programmer.”
Here I sit, broken hearted
Went long solar
When I should have shorted
Now my book, sits in the red
If my wife founds out
I’ll be dead
That goes out to the two trolling idiots yesterday. Here’s what solar looks like today (the solar I am watching), with the market positive, and decent volume.
FSLR -6.5% (now -7.9% in the short time I was writing this)
Now, STP shot up today too, and seeing as I covered after making ~70% in this name, I am waiting to get back into it.
I might start/add short here, but I want to wait a few more minutes.
I’ve been burnt pretty badly by GLD, TNA, and TZA. I made over 20% on YCS but that was a no-brainer, and I got a lucky 10% on TNA once. I’ve never traded TVIX, VXX, etc., before, and I never plan to. I know too many people who have been completely destroyed by this evil incarnate, that it’s just not worth it for me. Why gamble like this when you can do the hard work and find companies that will move up/down, regardless of the overall market. That’s what I try to do.
I plan on shorting solar, again/more, after today’s moves. If there was a short solar ETF, I would not be a buyer. Instead I would short a basket of companies, with position size based on risk/return. I know, it sounds like a lot of work, but that is how you do great things. The only time I would tell somebody to buy an ETF would be if the person was saving for retirement, then I would probably have them buy an index ETF, on a decent dip. Then I would get them in safe companies, that would look to have decent growth, but also have a decent dividend yield.
Traders are hating how boring this is, but all of my ex-finance professors would be huffing and puffing about how you can’t beat the market. This is a low risk way to do so, but you have to still make the right picks, and for someone not watching their accounts everyday, I would probably put a trailing stop on. Don’t be against me on solar either, unless you have done your “revenue recognition” homework.
On to my “Power Cocktail,” I have a horrible sleep schedule, horrible dreams, and a mind that refuses to shut off. A byproduct of this, is the change from my stomach being referred to as the “Iron Gullet,” to not even having a name because it is so pathetic. Every morning I wake up and my stomach is hungry, and queasy. It sucks. the docs want to push more pills, tell me to expose myself to less stress, etc. It’s not happening.
I realized if I ate a bunch of pistachios and cashews at night, I woke up without the hungry and queasy feeling. It was the fiber. I had tried to cut expenses while I was getting ready to launch my two new companies, and cut out fish oil/omegas and a multi-vitamin. This made a huge difference, in a negative way. Here’s what I do now.
Before Bed: A full serving of Nordic Naturals Complete Omega 3-6-9, 2/3 a serving of OptiMen multi-vitamin by Optimum Nutrition– both taken with water, –and a single serving of Fitness Fiber by Optimum Nutrition in 1/2 of a 32oz G2 low-carb Gatorade.
Upon Waking: 1/2 of a 320z G2 Gatorade with a single serving of Fitness Fiber, 32oz of water, then a can of Monster Recovery. I don’t like coffee, it frankly disgusts me, but I love this new Monster, it has awesome electrolytes and aminos in it.
I also add 1/3 of a serving of fiber to my pre and post-workout shakes, this has made it absorb much better, and not make me queasy, or give me stomach cramps. The fiber makes you feel satiated, without you knowing it, and is only 6g of carbs per serving, with only 1g not being fiber, and thus counting.
When I say counting, that is because I eat very little– to no –carbs before I go to the gym. On max effort day, I might have some sushi, or pho right before the gym, but these days I am going to hit more than 400lbs, I might add a little on “oly lift” days; even though I am only going up to 245lbs in the clean and press, etc., the movements are just so demanding. Eating a big bowl of oatmeal first thing in the morning effectively shuts your metabolism down, and slows your mind too.
I like to be sharp when trading, and on most days I have no more than ~20g of carbs before I hit the gym. I eat some high glycemic carbs to produce an insulin boost post workout, and then eat a bit of carbs at night, plus beer. The human body was not designed to eat a bunch of grains and oats, we only have one stomach. There are a few applications for carbs, like being a high class MMA fighter, but how many people do that?
Solar, led by FSLR, is ripping. Have you actually read through their guidance? Almost all of this “positive guidance” is based on changing revenue recognition for one project. Remember accounting 301, PAL?
I will wait in the high grass while all you longs dance and be merry, getting drunk off of your profits. Then I shall unleash my horde of Vikings upon, slaughtering you, taking your profits, and sending Solar back to Hel. Hel will receive you, and put you right to work.
I will be doubling my short in LDK and TSL, and starting a short position in FSLR– when the time is right. I know the time is right when the Odin’s ravens descend, showing me the sign.
I’m your Hucleberry, let’s play.
I’m really interested to see if KMPG was giving insider information to Carl “Princeton this, Princeton that” Icahn. He didn’t seem to know anything about the company when he was interviewed, so I don’t think this is some far off conspiracy theory. If he was to get caught, I’m sure one of his underlings will take the blame, and he’ll say that “he didn’t know anything about it.”
If this is the case, we’ll all know the truth, and may Thor’s hammer fall out of the sky and smash his brain in. I have no tolerance for cheaters, especially if they are cheating purely to be bullies. I couldn’t care less about him going to Princeton, especially since he got a degree in worthless Philosophy. Philosophy professors can philosophically kiss my ass, because I don’t want those dirty old beards near my body.
In other news, FSLR is ripping on bullshit news, causing my Chinese solar shorts to squeeze my head within a vise. This is okay, I shall release the pressure by doubling my position, when the the time is right, PAL. LDK TSL
Don’t mock the Crystal Ball, ingrates, or you shall be sorry. You’ll curse the day you ever spoke badly about the Crystal Ball, when the ravens come to pluck your eyes out.
[Edit: This was brought on by TPain's comment in this post]
What it says about Icahn:
- Mr Icahn has achieved a lot in his lifetime, but he is getting old. Much like a champion in the twilight of his career, he’s slowing down and the knockout is coming far easier.
- He still has a great team/staff/fight camp, but that doesn’t stop gravity, and “Father Time.”
- His recent actions– and words –have painted him to be a bully. Taking a stake in a “top hat-less” company like HLF, looks like a vengeful move from a semi-unhinged, angry, man. That is also far past his prime.
- Bedsides looking like a bully by jumping into HLF, with no real thesis, he called Ackman “that little Jewish boy on the school yard.” They are both Jewish, from New York, this makes Icahn look like he is bullying one of his own– on the schoolyard (market) –out of some vengeful spite. No one likes a bully.
What it says about Ackman:
- Everyone lauds Icahn as being a Princeton grad, but he only (comparatively) has a BA in philosophy from Princeton, where as Ackman has a BA from Harvard, and an MBA from Harvard. (I don’t give a shit about education, but everyone– including the crystal ball –does).
- Ackman is coming into the peak of his career at 46, and is far more nimble than Icahn.
- Even if Icahn tried to “ruin him,” Ackman has plenty of time to recover.
- JCP is getting crushed as of late, especially with yesterday’s news. I think Ackman is going to come in and take a more direct approach,– more than likely –hiring a Harvard friend to be the CEO.
- After getting back to being profitable, riding a huge short squeeze on the news, Ackman is going to start to sell. He will use the excuse that he needs to free up cash/capital for a new endeavor, but really he’s trying not to get Corzined [sic].
- He’s going to learn from this, buying into garbage companies are not worth it. It’s much easier to make 20% on a company that has hit a plateau, than 200% a company kicked off of a cliff.
I’m not going to give you guys any calls tonight/this morning, because North Korea is acting crazy. I can’t call it knowing there are psychopaths sashaying about in their psychotic castles. I’m just happy to be short P.
This goes out to @The_Real_Fly. You’re right, Steve wasn’t a nerd, he was just so brilliant he was arrogant. We can discuss this more later, if you want to.
If you don’t understand the title, please bang your head on the nearest wall, and don’t read the rest of this post. Trust me, it’s a waste of your time.
Two questions I have been receiving lately are as follows:
“Hey dude, I’ve been running religiously since January, but haven’t seen any results in a couple of months.”
“How’s it going man? So I’ve been following XYZ’s trading program/book, and I’m not making any money. I’m actually losing money, what should I do?”
The second is far easier to answer. You can’t force things things to happen, well most of the time. Unless you gave the money to buy a few million shares of something, you’re not really going to make that much of a difference. So the key is to buy stocks with more buyers than sellers, and short the inverse. He didn’t get it.
Look, unless you are going to do a ridiculous amount of research on the fundamentals of a business and its competitors, you need to buy stocks with momentum, and short those whoa re getting kicked in the mouth. I had to learn this the hard way, I’ve shorted plenty of stocks in the middle of a run up, only for them to run higher, and if I’m lucky, break even. I had to learn patience, and now if I am doing a swing trade, I wait for the stock to move first. Could I make 25% if I’m lucky and pick a top/bottom, sure, but I’d rather take 10% and not risk the loss, PAL.
Now to the first question. I don’t train for aesthetics, my body is pretty, it’s not in perfect proportion, and Marc thinks I have little pale calves. Training for aesthetics just won’t help me reach my goals, but I look better than probably 80% of people out there, a nice side effect of hard work. I know– not think –that the majority of people do not want to work hard to obtain something, and when they do, they usually only want to do it the way the main stream “pros” say to, or whatever their perception is of how to do it.
My friend has been doing nothing but running, saying that he lost 15 lbs in the first 6 weeks, after running 5 days a week. He’s up to 4 miles, 5 days a week, but the weight loss has stopped. He lost weight in his face and arms, but still has a bit of a belly. The first thing I said to him was “do you want a runner’s body?” He didn’t understand, so I explained it to him. Like this:
Adding on the fact, that his body would try to keep that fat, because his diet is wrong, and he isn’t building any muscle. “So I’m going to have really skinny arms and small shoulders, but not have s six pack?” Yes, if he continues like this. There’s no one perfect way to do things, the same goes with fitness. Running is just one tool, if that’s all you do, and all your body knows, it is going to adapt to it, and it will just become a normal part of the day.
I’m not bashing skinny runners here, go look at most power lifters, they are square bowling balls. If you want to be great at anything, it takes a balanced approach; fitness, trading, etc. He refuses to join a gym, and I told him it will be almost impossible to reach his goals without doing so. I gave him the best program and diet I could, because well, he lives in Snap City, and is afraid to work hard.
The two biggest things he is doing wrong is running roughly the same route/distance, only running, and eating a huge bowl of Oatmeal first thing in the morning. All of the above effectively shuts your metabolism down completely. I generally don’t eat any carbs until after I am finished working out for the day, or right before a max effort workout.
Want to be a good trader? Diversify, and the same goes for building a good body.
Here’s what the crystal ball is telling me about the rest of the year.
- JCP will bring in the recently ousted LULU Chief Product Officer Sheree Waterson. Previously lacking a woman’s touch, JCP will start to attract younger ladies offering Forever 21 and H&M style clothes, with a LULU-esque athletic line. The same will go toward their home wares division, with college girls outfitting their dorm and sorority rooms with said products.
- AAPL will start closing stores, and move from innovative devices, to creating more innovative software. They will still build devices that everyone likes, but they don’t have Steve anymore, and innovative software allows them to change the user experiences of interacting with their devices. I could go on about this all day, but if you don’t get it, any explaining won’t help.
- iRadio will launch, and be one of the best/smartest things AAPL has ever done. P will be kicked down a mountain, and bought by YHOO. It will then barely hold onto life, as Midwestern housewives listen to Michaal Buble while they play online slot machines.
- CCL will be bought by Sir Richard Branson, and he will turn it into the best cruise line in the world. Only after it is knocked down to trading on the pinks.
- All the “Green Guilt” (Rhino Trademark) yuppies will turn in their Priuses and Lexus Hybrids for ‘Merican made TSLAs. Elon Musk will give everyone the finger, with a silly accent.
- OCZ will fire for Chapter “oh shit, we’re screwed,” and a large portion of their management will come begging me for a job, to which I will say: “I guess you guys should sell your Porsches and Maseratis, oh wait, they’re leased.”
- The people will have their champion, and I will remain on the front page, graduating from JV to Varsity, fighting to keep my spot on the roster.
- The foundation of my empire shall be laid.
2013, THE YEAR OF THE RHINO
This market is as flat as Deveraux in June. Thus, most of you chose not to paddle out. Trading is thin, Twitter is dead, and CNBC is boring. Will we see a ramp up into the bell, maybe, but that’s doubtful.
I frankly don’t care if the market is “up” or “down” currently, as it’s nothing more than a ruse. The titans are absent, with mere humans– like myself –left to try to find pockets of volume. No thank you, I’ve an empire to build.
Now, please excuse me as I kick P off of a cliff, and watch my book drift in the current less waters.