Living In The Bubble

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I’ve almost been hit by a Google Bus three times.

Twice on 19th Avenue during my commute to Los Altos in Silicon Valley, and once crossing the street in my own neighborhood.

When my friends come visit form other locales they are shocked by the high use of mobile apps:

“Dude, we’ll just take Lyft Line”

“What’s a Lyft?”

“You rent your car out to strangers?”

“Yeah man, otherwise it is just sitting there, and the less people that have to own their own cars, the easier it is for me to find parking.”

[Getting out of the Lyft] “Don’t you have to pay the driver?”

“Nah dude, the app pays them with my card.”

They’re also not used to seeing exotic cars just parked on the street in neighborhoods, like this: (that’s an Audi R8 V10)

R8

 

It’s not all hipster science fiction come to life, it’s expensive, and it only seems to be getting worse.

I’m all about Manifest Destiny, and I see a lot of that here. Unfortunately, there also seem to be some folks that are moving here because it is trendy, and are here purely to consume, not produce. That’s great when there is not a surplus of producers, but when the bid’s hitting the ask, and more, it makes it hard for a lot of people. If a couple wants to live comfortably in a one-bedroom apartment in my neighborhood they need to make–while putting a tiny amount away for a rainy day–about $180,000 a year combined. That will never buy you a house though, the only way you can make that and buy a house is if you work for a company that goes public. The two-bedroom flat above us recently sold for $1.97m(mm for the old finance folks out there), the folks who lived in it before only did so for like 15 months. They bought it for $1.27m, and made the difference in the process. On average you need a downpayment of 20%, for $1.27m that would be $254,000, so how did they get that?

Well he works for a software company and she works for a social media platform, he sold some of his stock, and she sold some of hers after the lockup expired. Bingo, there’s the down payment. Now this sounds great, like “come on down, anybody can do it!” This isn’t always the case though. In the case of buyers, there’s a lot of rich kids moving here because it’s trendy, and racking up their families’ credit lines. They may not even be a substantial portion of the population, but with the ability to hit the ask so hard to achieve, their presence is definitely felt. In the case of being able to cash out an IPO, this is not always the case either.

I shorted ZNGA for the first time north of $12, I kept covering pieces, and adding shorts. I closed a large amount of shares around the $5 and $3 mark. Now, most of my friends who’ve had companies go public are worth about $500k when it IPOs. Most of them are specialists, or manage a team, so let’s say that most folks are worth $250k out of the gate. If they rode it to $5 they’re now only worth $102.5k in a stock that is capitulating. It’s not just losing the money, but the volatility, look at GRPN, TWTR, and YELP. If you work there and think you have a great product do you ride it out “knowing” that eventually people will realize you have a good product? Or, do you sell–even some of your shares–and then to go to work wondering if you should sell more, or if you shouldn’t have sold in the first place? I’d guess the vast majority of folks don’t consider it, they just have a large part of their paycheck inserted into the employee stock program. Either option sucks, if you are optimistic and do your job but the company fails you lose it all, if you sell some, you’re sitting there wondering if that was a good choice or not. Maybe you don’t care, you sold your stock for a down payment on a Porsche GT3, but I’m just trying to be logical.

Well the market comes back to touch my life, even when I am not actively trading. But, that’s the reality of the far reaching financial instrument. I’m currently in a UX design program utilizing real clients and instructors that are actual professionals in the field–I just finished week 3 of 10–if everything works out the way I hope it will, I will either land a job as lead UX designer at a startup, or a member of a small UX team at a startup. Otherwise, I will find myself as a junior designer at a large publicly traded tech company. Right now I am looking like a pretty high draft pick, but I have to remain humble and not try to make this a competition.

If I land with a startup, that hopefully goes public, or a publicly traded company, I will be managing risk accordingly. I will separate my market analysis from my product analysis, scaling off stock when I think appropriate, and adding to the stock buying program in the same sense. That might seem messed up to some people, because you “NEED” to be 100% committed to your product, but UX design teaches you that users don’t always act in a logical matter. Neither does the market, in fact it is the antithesis of logical these days. If I was to sell on the first lockup expiration, or after a year at the public company, then maybe I can buy the place upstairs?

I have a lot of problems with SF: taxes, politics and especially extravagant bull shit like The America’s Cup–tickets were too expensive for anybody but rich people, look at the target demographic, and not to mention the cost to the city and its residents–but I love the innovation and thinking. People are really trying to find ways to make people’s lives easier in an overcrowded world, in a responsible way. Plenty of people are in it just for the money, but those apps don’t do that well. Users don’t always mean profits, but users mean changing the world as we know it. Social Media has changed the world in so many ways it’s unfathomable, and it will only continue to evolve. Monetizing that is challenging, but the effect is obvious and overreaching.

MIght we see user’s views exceed dollar returns in equity valuation, or am I just living in a bubble? Arguments could be had for both, and I’d love to hear your opinion in the comments.

Note 1: I did 3x 5 min rounds on the heavy bag today, my hands are wrecked, and my left knee is barely there.

Note 2: VCs are pretty smart money, if they exit on IPO, what does that say for the company? What if they sell a large portion of their shares?

One last thing, when you say to yourself “how the hell did that piece of shit get VC funding?” I’ve run into this scenario twice.

At two different tech meetups while talking to folks, I was commenting on the trouble I was having getting funding for my startup, and both times a guy said he had just raised x-amount of funding, both in the millions. When I checked out their startups on AngelList, and looked at the main investors, the investors had their same last names. A quick google and trip to Wikipedia verified that, in fact, their main investors were their fathers. This isn’t to say that their products are bad–I don’t think either is useful–but that’s awesome they get to try and live their dreams. The rest of us, however, have to do it the hardway.

The following is me when I hear someone trying to pitch their startup on the 30x bus in the morning, or maybe it’s me when I notice someone’s farted on the crowded bus.

fox

Thanks for reading,

The Once and Future Rhino

 

 

Starting a Tech Company, Vol II

1,183 views

Please excuse my absence today. I made this move, timestamped on Twitter:

solar moves

 

AKA, “what having big balls looks like.” Well where was “The Rhino?” I was talking to my coder/programmer for the last three hours. We are both rather savage fellows, sharing the same urge to “give everyone the finger.” He wants a Lamborghini Aventador, and I want a house. He also lives in Queens, if that says something.

Instead of just walking away with some good work done on one idea, we came away with two. But, he’s already built almost all of the framework for the other one, so I just have to brainstorm on how to create the interest and take market share away from sites that already do the same thing. Don’t worry, it’s not finance or social media related.

There is a ton of work to be done, but he can write the code in his sleep, drunk. And, I always figure out someway to make things work, so I don’t think it should be a problem. The ol’ stuffy fools with Princteton MBAs better be watching their backs, because we will take your crappy site and app, make it way faster and better looking, and sell it for less.

With no offices, from opposite sides of the country, wearing our PJ’s, we are going to give the “Old Guard” both middle fingers. They’ll be sitting there in their big corner offices, behind their big wooden desks, necks choked by their silk ties, watching their companies get tossed off cliffs,  like the defective children they are. This is Sparta, not the country club in the Hamptons, your degree, and family name mean nothing, and will give you no protection, against the blade I wield.

“But aren’t you afraid of the backlash?” Were Gates or Jobs? I AM SCARED OF NO MAN! Or any entity, neither is “The Programmer.”

 

 

 

Did You Take the Solar Bet?

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Here I sit, broken hearted

Went long solar

When I should have shorted

Now my book, sits in the red

If my wife founds out

I’ll be dead

That goes out to the two trolling idiots yesterday. Here’s what solar looks like today (the solar I am watching), with the market positive, and decent volume.

FSLR -6.5% (now -7.9% in the short time I was writing this)

TSL -3.64%

LDK -3.03%

Now, STP shot up today too, and seeing as I covered after making ~70% in this name, I am waiting to get back into it.

I might start/add short here, but I want to wait a few more minutes.

solar-power-generator

 

 

Trading ETFs and my “Power Cocktail”

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I’ve been burnt pretty badly by GLD, TNA, and TZA. I made over 20% on YCS but that was a no-brainer, and I got a lucky 10% on TNA once. I’ve never traded TVIX, VXX, etc., before, and I never plan to. I know too many people who have been completely destroyed by this evil incarnate, that it’s just not worth it for me. Why gamble like this when you can do the hard work and find companies that will move up/down, regardless of the overall market. That’s what I try to do.

I plan on shorting solar, again/more, after today’s moves. If there was a short solar ETF, I would not be a buyer.  Instead I would short a basket of companies, with position size based on risk/return. I know, it sounds like a lot of work, but that is how you do great things. The only time I would tell somebody to buy an ETF would be if the person was saving for retirement, then I would probably have them buy an index ETF, on a decent dip. Then I would get them in safe companies, that would look to have decent growth, but also have a decent dividend yield.

Traders are hating how boring this is, but all of my ex-finance professors would be huffing and puffing about how you can’t beat the market. This is a low risk way to do so, but you have to still make the right picks, and for someone not watching their accounts everyday, I would probably put a trailing stop on. Don’t be against me on solar either, unless you have done your “revenue recognition” homework.

On to my “Power Cocktail,” I have a horrible sleep schedule, horrible dreams, and a mind that refuses to shut off. A byproduct of this, is the change from my stomach being referred to as the “Iron Gullet,” to not even having a name because it is so pathetic. Every morning I wake up and my stomach is hungry, and queasy. It sucks. the docs want to push more pills, tell me to expose myself to less stress, etc. It’s not happening.

I realized if I ate a bunch of pistachios and cashews at night, I woke up without the hungry and queasy feeling. It was the fiber. I had tried to cut expenses while I was getting ready to launch my two new companies, and cut out fish oil/omegas and a multi-vitamin. This made a huge difference, in a negative way. Here’s what I do now.

Before Bed: A full serving of Nordic Naturals Complete Omega 3-6-9, 2/3 a serving of OptiMen multi-vitamin by Optimum Nutrition– both taken with water, –and a single serving of Fitness Fiber by Optimum Nutrition in 1/2 of a 32oz G2 low-carb Gatorade.

Upon Waking: 1/2 of a 320z G2 Gatorade with a single serving of Fitness Fiber, 32oz of water, then a can of Monster Recovery. I don’t like coffee, it frankly disgusts me, but I love this new Monster, it has awesome electrolytes and aminos in it.

I also add 1/3 of a serving of fiber to my pre and post-workout shakes, this has made it absorb much better, and not make me queasy, or give me stomach cramps.  The fiber makes you feel satiated, without you knowing it, and is only 6g of carbs per serving, with only 1g not being fiber, and thus counting.

When I say counting, that is because I eat very little– to no –carbs before I go to the gym. On max effort day, I might have some sushi, or pho right before the gym, but these days I am going to hit more than 400lbs, I might add a little on “oly lift” days; even though I am only going up to 245lbs in the clean and press, etc., the movements are just so demanding. Eating a big bowl of oatmeal first thing in the morning effectively shuts your metabolism down, and slows your mind too.

I like to be sharp when trading, and on most days I have no more than ~20g of carbs before I hit the gym. I eat some high glycemic carbs to produce an insulin boost post workout, and then eat a bit of carbs at night, plus beer. The human body was not designed to eat a bunch of grains and oats, we only have one stomach. There are a few applications for carbs, like being a high class MMA fighter, but how many people do that?

 

Who Wants to Bet Against Den Naesehorn on Solar?

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Solar, led by FSLR, is ripping. Have you actually read through their guidance? Almost all of this “positive guidance” is based on changing revenue recognition for one project. Remember accounting 301, PAL?

I will wait in the high grass while all you longs dance and be merry, getting drunk off of your profits. Then I shall unleash my horde of Vikings upon, slaughtering you, taking your profits, and sending Solar back to Hel. Hel will receive you, and put you right to work.

I will be doubling my short in LDK and TSL, and starting a short position in FSLR– when the time is right. I know the time is right when the Odin’s ravens descend, showing me the sign.

I’m your Hucleberry, let’s play.

 

 

Is Icahn a Cheater?

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I’m really interested to see if KMPG was giving insider information to Carl “Princeton this, Princeton that” Icahn. He didn’t seem to know anything about the company when he was interviewed, so I don’t think this is some far off conspiracy theory. If he was to get caught, I’m sure one of his underlings will take the blame, and he’ll say that “he didn’t know anything about it.”

If this is the case, we’ll all know the truth, and may Thor’s hammer fall out of the sky and smash his brain in. I have no tolerance for cheaters, especially if they are cheating purely to be bullies. I couldn’t care less about him going to Princeton, especially since he got a degree in worthless Philosophy. Philosophy professors can philosophically kiss my ass, because I don’t want those dirty old beards near my body.

In other news, FSLR is ripping on bullshit news, causing my Chinese solar shorts to squeeze my head within a vise. This is okay, I shall release the pressure by doubling my position, when the the time is right, PAL. LDK TSL

 

CRYSTAL BALL: Icahn Versus Ackman

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Don’t mock the Crystal Ball, ingrates, or you shall be sorry. You’ll curse the day you ever spoke badly about the Crystal Ball, when the ravens come to pluck your eyes out.

[Edit: This was brought on by TPain’s comment in this post]

What it says about Icahn:

  • Mr Icahn has achieved a lot in his lifetime, but he is getting old. Much like a champion in the twilight of his career, he’s slowing down and the knockout is coming far easier.
  • He still has a great team/staff/fight camp, but that doesn’t stop gravity, and “Father Time.”
  • His recent actions– and words –have painted him to be a bully. Taking a stake in a “top hat-less” company like HLF, looks like a vengeful move from a semi-unhinged, angry, man. That is also far past his prime.
  • Bedsides looking like a bully by jumping into HLF, with no real thesis, he called Ackman “that little Jewish boy on the school yard.” They are both Jewish, from New York, this makes Icahn look like he is bullying one of his own– on the schoolyard (market) –out of some vengeful spite. No one likes a bully.

 

What it says about Ackman:

  • Everyone lauds Icahn as being a Princeton grad,  but he only (comparatively) has a BA in philosophy from Princeton, where as Ackman has a BA from Harvard, and an MBA from Harvard. (I don’t give a shit about education, but everyone– including the crystal ball –does).
  • Ackman is coming into the peak of his career at 46, and is far more nimble than Icahn.
  • Even if Icahn tried to “ruin him,” Ackman has plenty of time to recover.
  • JCP is getting crushed as of late, especially with yesterday’s news. I think Ackman is going to come in and take a more direct approach,– more than likely –hiring a Harvard friend to be the CEO.
  • After getting back to being profitable, riding a huge short squeeze on the news, Ackman is going to start to sell. He will use the excuse that he needs to free up cash/capital for a new endeavor, but really he’s trying not to get Corzined [sic].
  • He’s going to learn from this, buying into garbage companies are not worth it. It’s much easier to make 20% on a company that has hit a plateau, than 200% a company kicked off of a cliff.

I’m not going to give you guys any calls tonight/this morning, because North Korea is acting crazy. I can’t call it knowing there are psychopaths sashaying about in their psychotic castles. I’m just happy to be short P.

This goes out to @The_Real_Fly. You’re right, Steve wasn’t a nerd, he was just so brilliant he was arrogant. We can discuss this more later, if you want to.

Don’t Be a Square Peg in a Square Hole

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If you don’t understand the title, please bang your head on the nearest wall, and don’t read the rest of this post. Trust me, it’s a waste of your time.

Two questions I have been receiving lately are as follows:

“Hey dude, I’ve been running religiously since January, but haven’t seen any results in a couple of months.”

“How’s it going man? So I’ve been following XYZ’s trading program/book, and I’m not making any money. I’m actually losing money, what should I do?”

The second is far easier to answer. You can’t force things things to happen, well most of the time. Unless you gave the money to buy a few million shares of something, you’re not really going to make that much of a difference. So the key is to buy stocks with more buyers than sellers, and short the inverse. He didn’t get it.

Look, unless you are going to do a ridiculous amount of research on the fundamentals of a business and its competitors, you need to buy stocks with momentum, and short those whoa re getting kicked in the mouth. I had to learn this the hard way, I’ve shorted plenty of stocks in the middle of a run up, only for them to run higher, and if I’m lucky, break even. I had to learn patience, and now if I am doing a swing trade, I wait for the stock to move first.  Could I make 25% if I’m lucky and pick a top/bottom, sure, but I’d rather take 10% and not risk the loss, PAL.

Now to the first question. I don’t train for aesthetics, my body is pretty, it’s not in perfect proportion, and Marc thinks I have little pale calves. Training for aesthetics just won’t help me reach my goals, but I look better than probably 80% of people out there, a nice side effect of hard work. I know– not think –that the majority of people do not want to work hard to obtain something, and when they do, they usually only want to do it the way the main stream “pros” say to, or whatever their perception is of how to do it.

My friend has been doing nothing but running, saying that he lost 15 lbs in the first 6 weeks, after running 5 days a week. He’s up to 4 miles, 5 days a week, but the weight loss has stopped. He lost weight in his face and arms, but still has a bit of a belly. The first thing I said to him was “do you want a runner’s body?” He didn’t understand, so I explained it to him. Like this:

runners_world_-_march_2011

 

Adding on the fact, that his body would try to keep that fat, because his diet is wrong, and he isn’t building any muscle. “So I’m going to have really skinny arms and small shoulders, but not have s six pack?” Yes, if he continues like this. There’s no one perfect way to do things, the same goes with fitness. Running is just one tool, if that’s all you do, and all your body knows, it is going to adapt to it, and it will just become a normal part of the day.

I’m not bashing skinny runners here, go look at most power lifters, they are square bowling balls. If you want to be great at anything, it takes a balanced approach; fitness, trading, etc. He refuses to join a gym, and I told him it will be almost impossible to reach his goals without doing so. I gave him the best program and diet I could, because well, he lives in Snap City, and is afraid to work hard.

The two biggest things he is doing wrong is running roughly the same route/distance, only running, and eating a huge bowl of Oatmeal first thing in the morning. All of the above effectively shuts your metabolism down completely. I generally don’t eat any carbs until after I am finished working out for the day, or right before a max effort workout.

Want to be a good trader? Diversify, and the same goes for building a good body.

A Monday Look into the Crystal Ball

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Here’s what the crystal ball is telling me about the rest of the year.

  1. JCP will bring in the recently ousted LULU Chief Product Officer Sheree Waterson. Previously lacking a woman’s touch, JCP will start to attract younger ladies offering Forever 21 and H&M style clothes, with a LULU-esque athletic line. The same will go toward their home wares division, with college girls outfitting their dorm and sorority rooms with said products.
  2. AAPL will start closing stores, and move from innovative devices, to creating more innovative software. They will still build devices that everyone likes, but they don’t have Steve anymore, and innovative software allows them to change the user experiences of interacting with their devices. I could go on about this all day, but if you don’t get it, any explaining won’t help.
  3. iRadio will launch, and be one of the best/smartest things AAPL has ever done. will be kicked down a mountain, and bought by YHOO. It will then barely hold onto life, as Midwestern housewives listen to Michaal Buble while they play online slot machines.
  4. CCL will be bought by Sir Richard Branson, and he will turn it into the best cruise line in the world. Only after it is knocked down to trading on the pinks.
  5. All the “Green Guilt” (Rhino Trademark) yuppies will turn in their Priuses and Lexus Hybrids for ‘Merican made TSLAs. Elon Musk will give everyone the finger, with a silly accent.
  6. OCZ will fire for Chapter “oh shit, we’re screwed,” and a large portion of their management will come begging me for a job, to which I will say: “I guess you guys should sell your Porsches and Maseratis, oh wait, they’re leased.”
  7. The people will have their champion, and I will remain on the front page, graduating from JV to Varsity, fighting to keep my spot on the roster.
  8. The foundation of my empire shall be laid.

2013, THE YEAR OF THE RHINO

There’s No Swell, Pal

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This market is as flat as Deveraux in June. Thus, most of you chose not to paddle out. Trading is thin, Twitter is dead, and CNBC is boring. Will we see a ramp up into the bell, maybe, but that’s doubtful.

I frankly don’t care if the market is “up” or “down” currently, as it’s nothing more than a ruse. The titans are absent, with mere humans– like myself –left to try to find pockets of volume. No thank you, I’ve an empire to build.

Now, please excuse me as I kick P off of a cliff, and watch my book drift in the current less waters.

 

Living In The Bubble

50,137 views

I’ve almost been hit by a Google Bus three times.

Twice on 19th Avenue during my commute to Los Altos in Silicon Valley, and once crossing the street in my own neighborhood.

When my friends come visit form other locales they are shocked by the high use of mobile apps:

“Dude, we’ll just take Lyft Line”

“What’s a Lyft?”

“You rent your car out to strangers?”

“Yeah man, otherwise it is just sitting there, and the less people that have to own their own cars, the easier it is for me to find parking.”

[Getting out of the Lyft] “Don’t you have to pay the driver?”

“Nah dude, the app pays them with my card.”

They’re also not used to seeing exotic cars just parked on the street in neighborhoods, like this: (that’s an Audi R8 V10)

R8

 

It’s not all hipster science fiction come to life, it’s expensive, and it only seems to be getting worse.

I’m all about Manifest Destiny, and I see a lot of that here. Unfortunately, there also seem to be some folks that are moving here because it is trendy, and are here purely to consume, not produce. That’s great when there is not a surplus of producers, but when the bid’s hitting the ask, and more, it makes it hard for a lot of people. If a couple wants to live comfortably in a one-bedroom apartment in my neighborhood they need to make–while putting a tiny amount away for a rainy day–about $180,000 a year combined. That will never buy you a house though, the only way you can make that and buy a house is if you work for a company that goes public. The two-bedroom flat above us recently sold for $1.97m(mm for the old finance folks out there), the folks who lived in it before only did so for like 15 months. They bought it for $1.27m, and made the difference in the process. On average you need a downpayment of 20%, for $1.27m that would be $254,000, so how did they get that?

Well he works for a software company and she works for a social media platform, he sold some of his stock, and she sold some of hers after the lockup expired. Bingo, there’s the down payment. Now this sounds great, like “come on down, anybody can do it!” This isn’t always the case though. In the case of buyers, there’s a lot of rich kids moving here because it’s trendy, and racking up their families’ credit lines. They may not even be a substantial portion of the population, but with the ability to hit the ask so hard to achieve, their presence is definitely felt. In the case of being able to cash out an IPO, this is not always the case either.

I shorted ZNGA for the first time north of $12, I kept covering pieces, and adding shorts. I closed a large amount of shares around the $5 and $3 mark. Now, most of my friends who’ve had companies go public are worth about $500k when it IPOs. Most of them are specialists, or manage a team, so let’s say that most folks are worth $250k out of the gate. If they rode it to $5 they’re now only worth $102.5k in a stock that is capitulating. It’s not just losing the money, but the volatility, look at GRPN, TWTR, and YELP. If you work there and think you have a great product do you ride it out “knowing” that eventually people will realize you have a good product? Or, do you sell–even some of your shares–and then to go to work wondering if you should sell more, or if you shouldn’t have sold in the first place? I’d guess the vast majority of folks don’t consider it, they just have a large part of their paycheck inserted into the employee stock program. Either option sucks, if you are optimistic and do your job but the company fails you lose it all, if you sell some, you’re sitting there wondering if that was a good choice or not. Maybe you don’t care, you sold your stock for a down payment on a Porsche GT3, but I’m just trying to be logical.

Well the market comes back to touch my life, even when I am not actively trading. But, that’s the reality of the far reaching financial instrument. I’m currently in a UX design program utilizing real clients and instructors that are actual professionals in the field–I just finished week 3 of 10–if everything works out the way I hope it will, I will either land a job as lead UX designer at a startup, or a member of a small UX team at a startup. Otherwise, I will find myself as a junior designer at a large publicly traded tech company. Right now I am looking like a pretty high draft pick, but I have to remain humble and not try to make this a competition.

If I land with a startup, that hopefully goes public, or a publicly traded company, I will be managing risk accordingly. I will separate my market analysis from my product analysis, scaling off stock when I think appropriate, and adding to the stock buying program in the same sense. That might seem messed up to some people, because you “NEED” to be 100% committed to your product, but UX design teaches you that users don’t always act in a logical matter. Neither does the market, in fact it is the antithesis of logical these days. If I was to sell on the first lockup expiration, or after a year at the public company, then maybe I can buy the place upstairs?

I have a lot of problems with SF: taxes, politics and especially extravagant bull shit like The America’s Cup–tickets were too expensive for anybody but rich people, look at the target demographic, and not to mention the cost to the city and its residents–but I love the innovation and thinking. People are really trying to find ways to make people’s lives easier in an overcrowded world, in a responsible way. Plenty of people are in it just for the money, but those apps don’t do that well. Users don’t always mean profits, but users mean changing the world as we know it. Social Media has changed the world in so many ways it’s unfathomable, and it will only continue to evolve. Monetizing that is challenging, but the effect is obvious and overreaching.

MIght we see user’s views exceed dollar returns in equity valuation, or am I just living in a bubble? Arguments could be had for both, and I’d love to hear your opinion in the comments.

Note 1: I did 3x 5 min rounds on the heavy bag today, my hands are wrecked, and my left knee is barely there.

Note 2: VCs are pretty smart money, if they exit on IPO, what does that say for the company? What if they sell a large portion of their shares?

One last thing, when you say to yourself “how the hell did that piece of shit get VC funding?” I’ve run into this scenario twice.

At two different tech meetups while talking to folks, I was commenting on the trouble I was having getting funding for my startup, and both times a guy said he had just raised x-amount of funding, both in the millions. When I checked out their startups on AngelList, and looked at the main investors, the investors had their same last names. A quick google and trip to Wikipedia verified that, in fact, their main investors were their fathers. This isn’t to say that their products are bad–I don’t think either is useful–but that’s awesome they get to try and live their dreams. The rest of us, however, have to do it the hardway.

The following is me when I hear someone trying to pitch their startup on the 30x bus in the morning, or maybe it’s me when I notice someone’s farted on the crowded bus.

fox

Thanks for reading,

The Once and Future Rhino

 

 

Starting a Tech Company, Vol II

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Please excuse my absence today. I made this move, timestamped on Twitter:

solar moves

 

AKA, “what having big balls looks like.” Well where was “The Rhino?” I was talking to my coder/programmer for the last three hours. We are both rather savage fellows, sharing the same urge to “give everyone the finger.” He wants a Lamborghini Aventador, and I want a house. He also lives in Queens, if that says something.

Instead of just walking away with some good work done on one idea, we came away with two. But, he’s already built almost all of the framework for the other one, so I just have to brainstorm on how to create the interest and take market share away from sites that already do the same thing. Don’t worry, it’s not finance or social media related.

There is a ton of work to be done, but he can write the code in his sleep, drunk. And, I always figure out someway to make things work, so I don’t think it should be a problem. The ol’ stuffy fools with Princteton MBAs better be watching their backs, because we will take your crappy site and app, make it way faster and better looking, and sell it for less.

With no offices, from opposite sides of the country, wearing our PJ’s, we are going to give the “Old Guard” both middle fingers. They’ll be sitting there in their big corner offices, behind their big wooden desks, necks choked by their silk ties, watching their companies get tossed off cliffs,  like the defective children they are. This is Sparta, not the country club in the Hamptons, your degree, and family name mean nothing, and will give you no protection, against the blade I wield.

“But aren’t you afraid of the backlash?” Were Gates or Jobs? I AM SCARED OF NO MAN! Or any entity, neither is “The Programmer.”

 

 

 

Did You Take the Solar Bet?

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Here I sit, broken hearted

Went long solar

When I should have shorted

Now my book, sits in the red

If my wife founds out

I’ll be dead

That goes out to the two trolling idiots yesterday. Here’s what solar looks like today (the solar I am watching), with the market positive, and decent volume.

FSLR -6.5% (now -7.9% in the short time I was writing this)

TSL -3.64%

LDK -3.03%

Now, STP shot up today too, and seeing as I covered after making ~70% in this name, I am waiting to get back into it.

I might start/add short here, but I want to wait a few more minutes.

solar-power-generator

 

 

Trading ETFs and my “Power Cocktail”

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I’ve been burnt pretty badly by GLD, TNA, and TZA. I made over 20% on YCS but that was a no-brainer, and I got a lucky 10% on TNA once. I’ve never traded TVIX, VXX, etc., before, and I never plan to. I know too many people who have been completely destroyed by this evil incarnate, that it’s just not worth it for me. Why gamble like this when you can do the hard work and find companies that will move up/down, regardless of the overall market. That’s what I try to do.

I plan on shorting solar, again/more, after today’s moves. If there was a short solar ETF, I would not be a buyer.  Instead I would short a basket of companies, with position size based on risk/return. I know, it sounds like a lot of work, but that is how you do great things. The only time I would tell somebody to buy an ETF would be if the person was saving for retirement, then I would probably have them buy an index ETF, on a decent dip. Then I would get them in safe companies, that would look to have decent growth, but also have a decent dividend yield.

Traders are hating how boring this is, but all of my ex-finance professors would be huffing and puffing about how you can’t beat the market. This is a low risk way to do so, but you have to still make the right picks, and for someone not watching their accounts everyday, I would probably put a trailing stop on. Don’t be against me on solar either, unless you have done your “revenue recognition” homework.

On to my “Power Cocktail,” I have a horrible sleep schedule, horrible dreams, and a mind that refuses to shut off. A byproduct of this, is the change from my stomach being referred to as the “Iron Gullet,” to not even having a name because it is so pathetic. Every morning I wake up and my stomach is hungry, and queasy. It sucks. the docs want to push more pills, tell me to expose myself to less stress, etc. It’s not happening.

I realized if I ate a bunch of pistachios and cashews at night, I woke up without the hungry and queasy feeling. It was the fiber. I had tried to cut expenses while I was getting ready to launch my two new companies, and cut out fish oil/omegas and a multi-vitamin. This made a huge difference, in a negative way. Here’s what I do now.

Before Bed: A full serving of Nordic Naturals Complete Omega 3-6-9, 2/3 a serving of OptiMen multi-vitamin by Optimum Nutrition– both taken with water, –and a single serving of Fitness Fiber by Optimum Nutrition in 1/2 of a 32oz G2 low-carb Gatorade.

Upon Waking: 1/2 of a 320z G2 Gatorade with a single serving of Fitness Fiber, 32oz of water, then a can of Monster Recovery. I don’t like coffee, it frankly disgusts me, but I love this new Monster, it has awesome electrolytes and aminos in it.

I also add 1/3 of a serving of fiber to my pre and post-workout shakes, this has made it absorb much better, and not make me queasy, or give me stomach cramps.  The fiber makes you feel satiated, without you knowing it, and is only 6g of carbs per serving, with only 1g not being fiber, and thus counting.

When I say counting, that is because I eat very little– to no –carbs before I go to the gym. On max effort day, I might have some sushi, or pho right before the gym, but these days I am going to hit more than 400lbs, I might add a little on “oly lift” days; even though I am only going up to 245lbs in the clean and press, etc., the movements are just so demanding. Eating a big bowl of oatmeal first thing in the morning effectively shuts your metabolism down, and slows your mind too.

I like to be sharp when trading, and on most days I have no more than ~20g of carbs before I hit the gym. I eat some high glycemic carbs to produce an insulin boost post workout, and then eat a bit of carbs at night, plus beer. The human body was not designed to eat a bunch of grains and oats, we only have one stomach. There are a few applications for carbs, like being a high class MMA fighter, but how many people do that?

 

Who Wants to Bet Against Den Naesehorn on Solar?

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Solar, led by FSLR, is ripping. Have you actually read through their guidance? Almost all of this “positive guidance” is based on changing revenue recognition for one project. Remember accounting 301, PAL?

I will wait in the high grass while all you longs dance and be merry, getting drunk off of your profits. Then I shall unleash my horde of Vikings upon, slaughtering you, taking your profits, and sending Solar back to Hel. Hel will receive you, and put you right to work.

I will be doubling my short in LDK and TSL, and starting a short position in FSLR– when the time is right. I know the time is right when the Odin’s ravens descend, showing me the sign.

I’m your Hucleberry, let’s play.

 

 

Is Icahn a Cheater?

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I’m really interested to see if KMPG was giving insider information to Carl “Princeton this, Princeton that” Icahn. He didn’t seem to know anything about the company when he was interviewed, so I don’t think this is some far off conspiracy theory. If he was to get caught, I’m sure one of his underlings will take the blame, and he’ll say that “he didn’t know anything about it.”

If this is the case, we’ll all know the truth, and may Thor’s hammer fall out of the sky and smash his brain in. I have no tolerance for cheaters, especially if they are cheating purely to be bullies. I couldn’t care less about him going to Princeton, especially since he got a degree in worthless Philosophy. Philosophy professors can philosophically kiss my ass, because I don’t want those dirty old beards near my body.

In other news, FSLR is ripping on bullshit news, causing my Chinese solar shorts to squeeze my head within a vise. This is okay, I shall release the pressure by doubling my position, when the the time is right, PAL. LDK TSL

 

CRYSTAL BALL: Icahn Versus Ackman

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Don’t mock the Crystal Ball, ingrates, or you shall be sorry. You’ll curse the day you ever spoke badly about the Crystal Ball, when the ravens come to pluck your eyes out.

[Edit: This was brought on by TPain’s comment in this post]

What it says about Icahn:

  • Mr Icahn has achieved a lot in his lifetime, but he is getting old. Much like a champion in the twilight of his career, he’s slowing down and the knockout is coming far easier.
  • He still has a great team/staff/fight camp, but that doesn’t stop gravity, and “Father Time.”
  • His recent actions– and words –have painted him to be a bully. Taking a stake in a “top hat-less” company like HLF, looks like a vengeful move from a semi-unhinged, angry, man. That is also far past his prime.
  • Bedsides looking like a bully by jumping into HLF, with no real thesis, he called Ackman “that little Jewish boy on the school yard.” They are both Jewish, from New York, this makes Icahn look like he is bullying one of his own– on the schoolyard (market) –out of some vengeful spite. No one likes a bully.

 

What it says about Ackman:

  • Everyone lauds Icahn as being a Princeton grad,  but he only (comparatively) has a BA in philosophy from Princeton, where as Ackman has a BA from Harvard, and an MBA from Harvard. (I don’t give a shit about education, but everyone– including the crystal ball –does).
  • Ackman is coming into the peak of his career at 46, and is far more nimble than Icahn.
  • Even if Icahn tried to “ruin him,” Ackman has plenty of time to recover.
  • JCP is getting crushed as of late, especially with yesterday’s news. I think Ackman is going to come in and take a more direct approach,– more than likely –hiring a Harvard friend to be the CEO.
  • After getting back to being profitable, riding a huge short squeeze on the news, Ackman is going to start to sell. He will use the excuse that he needs to free up cash/capital for a new endeavor, but really he’s trying not to get Corzined [sic].
  • He’s going to learn from this, buying into garbage companies are not worth it. It’s much easier to make 20% on a company that has hit a plateau, than 200% a company kicked off of a cliff.

I’m not going to give you guys any calls tonight/this morning, because North Korea is acting crazy. I can’t call it knowing there are psychopaths sashaying about in their psychotic castles. I’m just happy to be short P.

This goes out to @The_Real_Fly. You’re right, Steve wasn’t a nerd, he was just so brilliant he was arrogant. We can discuss this more later, if you want to.

Don’t Be a Square Peg in a Square Hole

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If you don’t understand the title, please bang your head on the nearest wall, and don’t read the rest of this post. Trust me, it’s a waste of your time.

Two questions I have been receiving lately are as follows:

“Hey dude, I’ve been running religiously since January, but haven’t seen any results in a couple of months.”

“How’s it going man? So I’ve been following XYZ’s trading program/book, and I’m not making any money. I’m actually losing money, what should I do?”

The second is far easier to answer. You can’t force things things to happen, well most of the time. Unless you gave the money to buy a few million shares of something, you’re not really going to make that much of a difference. So the key is to buy stocks with more buyers than sellers, and short the inverse. He didn’t get it.

Look, unless you are going to do a ridiculous amount of research on the fundamentals of a business and its competitors, you need to buy stocks with momentum, and short those whoa re getting kicked in the mouth. I had to learn this the hard way, I’ve shorted plenty of stocks in the middle of a run up, only for them to run higher, and if I’m lucky, break even. I had to learn patience, and now if I am doing a swing trade, I wait for the stock to move first.  Could I make 25% if I’m lucky and pick a top/bottom, sure, but I’d rather take 10% and not risk the loss, PAL.

Now to the first question. I don’t train for aesthetics, my body is pretty, it’s not in perfect proportion, and Marc thinks I have little pale calves. Training for aesthetics just won’t help me reach my goals, but I look better than probably 80% of people out there, a nice side effect of hard work. I know– not think –that the majority of people do not want to work hard to obtain something, and when they do, they usually only want to do it the way the main stream “pros” say to, or whatever their perception is of how to do it.

My friend has been doing nothing but running, saying that he lost 15 lbs in the first 6 weeks, after running 5 days a week. He’s up to 4 miles, 5 days a week, but the weight loss has stopped. He lost weight in his face and arms, but still has a bit of a belly. The first thing I said to him was “do you want a runner’s body?” He didn’t understand, so I explained it to him. Like this:

runners_world_-_march_2011

 

Adding on the fact, that his body would try to keep that fat, because his diet is wrong, and he isn’t building any muscle. “So I’m going to have really skinny arms and small shoulders, but not have s six pack?” Yes, if he continues like this. There’s no one perfect way to do things, the same goes with fitness. Running is just one tool, if that’s all you do, and all your body knows, it is going to adapt to it, and it will just become a normal part of the day.

I’m not bashing skinny runners here, go look at most power lifters, they are square bowling balls. If you want to be great at anything, it takes a balanced approach; fitness, trading, etc. He refuses to join a gym, and I told him it will be almost impossible to reach his goals without doing so. I gave him the best program and diet I could, because well, he lives in Snap City, and is afraid to work hard.

The two biggest things he is doing wrong is running roughly the same route/distance, only running, and eating a huge bowl of Oatmeal first thing in the morning. All of the above effectively shuts your metabolism down completely. I generally don’t eat any carbs until after I am finished working out for the day, or right before a max effort workout.

Want to be a good trader? Diversify, and the same goes for building a good body.

A Monday Look into the Crystal Ball

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Here’s what the crystal ball is telling me about the rest of the year.

  1. JCP will bring in the recently ousted LULU Chief Product Officer Sheree Waterson. Previously lacking a woman’s touch, JCP will start to attract younger ladies offering Forever 21 and H&M style clothes, with a LULU-esque athletic line. The same will go toward their home wares division, with college girls outfitting their dorm and sorority rooms with said products.
  2. AAPL will start closing stores, and move from innovative devices, to creating more innovative software. They will still build devices that everyone likes, but they don’t have Steve anymore, and innovative software allows them to change the user experiences of interacting with their devices. I could go on about this all day, but if you don’t get it, any explaining won’t help.
  3. iRadio will launch, and be one of the best/smartest things AAPL has ever done. will be kicked down a mountain, and bought by YHOO. It will then barely hold onto life, as Midwestern housewives listen to Michaal Buble while they play online slot machines.
  4. CCL will be bought by Sir Richard Branson, and he will turn it into the best cruise line in the world. Only after it is knocked down to trading on the pinks.
  5. All the “Green Guilt” (Rhino Trademark) yuppies will turn in their Priuses and Lexus Hybrids for ‘Merican made TSLAs. Elon Musk will give everyone the finger, with a silly accent.
  6. OCZ will fire for Chapter “oh shit, we’re screwed,” and a large portion of their management will come begging me for a job, to which I will say: “I guess you guys should sell your Porsches and Maseratis, oh wait, they’re leased.”
  7. The people will have their champion, and I will remain on the front page, graduating from JV to Varsity, fighting to keep my spot on the roster.
  8. The foundation of my empire shall be laid.

2013, THE YEAR OF THE RHINO

There’s No Swell, Pal

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This market is as flat as Deveraux in June. Thus, most of you chose not to paddle out. Trading is thin, Twitter is dead, and CNBC is boring. Will we see a ramp up into the bell, maybe, but that’s doubtful.

I frankly don’t care if the market is “up” or “down” currently, as it’s nothing more than a ruse. The titans are absent, with mere humans– like myself –left to try to find pockets of volume. No thank you, I’ve an empire to build.

Now, please excuse me as I kick P off of a cliff, and watch my book drift in the current less waters.