Thursday, December 8, 2016
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Joined Apr 1, 2010
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Flirting with Precious Danger

NOTE: chessNwine’s Weekly Strategy Session has been published and sent out to members this week. I am confident that you will find this week’s version to be of tremendous value in your weekly preparations for the market. It is never too late to sign up at a very reasonable price, so please click here for more details about subscribing or even making a one-time purchase (the subscription plans offer much better value over time). As a reminder, members of 12631 receive the Weekly Strategy Session at no additional cost, as it is included in their membership.

Despite both gold and silver being oversold on their daily charts, with gaps well below their respective lower Bollinger Bands last Friday, the updated weekly timeframes for each ETF below indicates room to drop much further before prior major support levels are tested. Thus, even though precious metals have garnered interest from contrarians with this recent swoon, I do not yet see a play here. A few more days of laughing at the gold bugs, however, changes that story for at least a tradable bounce.

The other main issue to address is whether the metals are not, in fact, close to a good low. In other words, the spring 2011 parabolic move higher in silver may very well have been the climactic  moment of the secular bull run for both precious metals. For now, that argument is still a work in progress. But a downside breach of the $148 level on GLD and the $26 level on SLV would certainly force us to consider the thesis much more seriously.



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  1. Bozo on a bus

    We’ve had mostly poor sentiment in gold for quite a while, but the market hasn’t responded. However, I didn’t see the widespread bullishness in gold that usually happens at big tops. Sure wish I knew.

    Chess, on a non-precious metal, it looks to me like there might be a big ascending triangle in copper, starting around mid-November. Any thoughts?

  2. Mr. Cain Thaler

    The only way that is true is if the precious metals a front running a global slowdown and credit contraction…which could very well be.

    But over the next ten years, there’s just no way they don’t double in price again.