My Worst Missed Trade of 2013

About a year ago I went long about 1 million shares of FRO, thinking the shippers bottomed. I was half right. The place to be was Dry Bulk, not over leveraged oil tankers, as evidenced by share price performance. FRO has under-performed because they are being squeezed and may file for reorganization, which is why I sold.

After reexamining the space and trends, I knew the correct trade was in Dry Bulk. I’ve posted my picks inside of The PPT for months: DSX, SBLK and GNK.

Tonight, the BDI is going haywire to the upside.

This hurts.

The best performing Dry Bulk plays are GNK, FREE, EGLE, SBLK and DRYS.

I expect this run to continue, as rates normalize, so will valuations.

Some ideas worth thinking about are the laggards. You want to take a shot at laggards, but not underperformers.

There are some really leveraged plays out there, with dangerous debt/equity levels. If the sector is really turning, the higher the leverage, the better–just like olde FTK.

The highest levered shippers are

FREE (89)
EGLE (13)
GNK (9)
SHIP (9)
DAC (7)
FRO (6.5)
TNP (5)
DRYS (4)

Based on price to sales, the following are the cheapest (this is providing they do not declare)

FREE (0.07) –this is pretty much insolvent
OSGIQ (0.08)– already in reorg
FRO (0.36)
EGLE (0.41)
SHIP (0.46)
ISH (0.66)
TNP (0.70)
SBLK (0.76)
DHT (0.78)

My best guess, next big winners, are:

EGLE, SHIP, SB, BALT and maybe GBLS. Obviously, GNK can go much higher; but I refuse to buy it up here.

PPT users can access my screen here.

Again, I don’t want to give myself too much praise, since even a retarded chimp could make money in this tape. Where I separated myself from the horde was ensuring full participation in this run, being 135% leveraged long. I could’ve stopped at 75% long or even 100%, like a sane person. But I went the extra mile, took the risk, and it paid off. Plus anyway, no one has ever accused me of being mentally stable.

I’ve made so much money these past two weeks, my face is numb and my arms are involuntarily punching people in the face. I’m tossing slices of ham at the teevee this evening, watching the clowns on Fast Money take wild, undisciplined, guesses at the market. It really is crazy, pure hedonism, no filter.

Back to the point of this post.

I want a name that has very little shares in the float, down from its IPO price and sporting great growth. There is only one stock that appeals to me and it is GOGO.

I am giving you tomorrow’s newspaper today.

Why?

Because I am a generous man.

-Airline traffic is robust

-16% of GOGO’s shares are short

-The stock is down $5 since its IPO

-Revenue growth should be +50% YOY, not including international expansion and new product launches.

-The company is launching its in-flight phone service for people who can’t stop texting, on 10/1 and 11/1.

In my opinion, this stock is going to scream higher, and soon. It’s not a matter of if, but when.

Although I am fully leveraged long, I managed to scrape up a few loose dollars to buy more CVV. I warned you this squeeze would be pervasive and bordering on the absurd. I intend to prove the clowns over at Seeking Alpha wrong, yet again.

Have you taken a look at TRLA (my second largest position) and AMBA today?

Needless to say, I am having a good day, up more than 2.2% for the day or +50% for the year.

Apparently the entirety of the potash market lies in Belarus, according to the market. Ag chems are rallying today after Putin said “this whole Potash boondoggle with Belarus needs to be settled already, Goddamit.”

I am paraphrasing just a bit there.

But the idea of buying into the sector is intriguing, especially since everything under the sun is soaring. I cannot believe I missed out on this GNK and SBLK run. I knew they’d go, but opted to divest from the ships, after me long, arduous FRO campaign (ultra-violent).

At any rate, I believe SQM, MOS and POT are solid long term holds down here, with POT and MOS even paying generous dividends. If you want to go the degenerate OTB guy route, RNF and IPI are as hated as they come.

I am hesitant about buying into the sector today, based upon a god damned comment by that bastard in chief, President Putin. However, the long term idea of buying and holding these chem stocks is very appealing– I must admit.

Too bad I am 135% leveraged long and haven’t two nickels to rub together for new investments, otherwise I might do something today.

I love how we ‘celebrate’ horrific events. I know people who were ruined because of the meltdown, marriages destroyed, homes snatched like purses in Harlem. There isn’t anything to celebrate. However, we should be grateful that we are still able to buy milk at the grocery store and stock our bathrooms with toilet paper.

For those of you who are unaware, either due to extreme ignorance or the fact that you’re young punks, just know, the world as we know it was on the verge (extra tilt) of imploding. At that time, I envisioned icy wastelands and horses clogging up the highways, carrying stupid people inside of carriages. Currencies would be a “thing of the past” and men would chop each others heads off for scraps of crackers.

Clowns like DENNINGER and others would’ve preferred to live inside of this psychopathic society, clad in blue blazers and burlap pants.

Instead of all that, we have this. Do you see how stupid you all were? The bailouts worked (at least for me they did) and the grocery store is still selling organic, 2% milk and the toilet paper is flowing like profits at my favorite big cap corporations (extra KMB).

Stupid jackasses.

A few years ago, I ripped through one classical piece of literature after the next, interested in timeless works of art. Last year I mixed up my reading with cinema. Over the course of the last year, I’ve seen every single movie that has ever been made. At the present, I am reading biographies and watching biopics, but something far more base as grasped my imagination.

I’ve become very interested with fitness and the science of building muscle. I envision myself bulking up to the point where I could rip a man’s head clean off his shoulders, while at dinner, without spilling my whey filled martini.

The venerable Marc David has been assisting me with my conquests and I do not worry about “falling off the wagon” because once I’ve made up my mind on something, there’s no going back. Thus far, the results are far better than I had originally anticipated.

I’ve always kept in shape, but never dedicated myself to the science of weightlifting, as it pertains to diet. I track every single thing that I eat, down to the gram, without exception. I’ve supplemented my 4 day per week workouts with creatine, excessive quantities of protein and enough water to keep me frequenting the urinal much more than I care for, especially considering those bastard shadows  like to offer me financial advice every time I am there.

I will be sure to keep you apprised of my progress and if my newly found alien strength has resulted in any heinous manslaughters.

That is all. Go back to drinking your pumpkin beers, you degenerate pigs!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfiTcBJADUk

These stocks aren’t “the best” because they go up the most or because they have the most potential. They are “the best” because The PPT says they are.

CVT

MTEX

TTPH

ABTL

CWEI

SBLK

PSIX

DWCH

SSTK

SAM

YY

Money isn’t important to us, only the conquest of acquiring it.

I’ve been busy this evening, dining on hotdogs and very expensive bottles of California’s best, unmoved by today’s late day sell off. Midday, I was up more than 3%. I settled for a very spartan-like 1.47%, fully leveraged, to the hilt, not caring about the news–whatsoever.

The stocks that I own are winners, from AMBA to YELP to IMMR to GOGO. I intend to make a fortune.

You’re more than welcomed to feed off me, like small guppy fish who swim along with sharks, hoping to eat chum. Either way, I am going to win.

Top picks: TRLA, GOGO, CVV

I bought more CVV, north of $11.90, with the type of money that you burn, discard, because it’s making your pockets bulge. My operations are flowing, freely, and with ease, up another 3% for the day. I am now leveraged, like a baboon swinging in a tree before a tsunami, at 140% long.

We will press their heads to the metal and fire grape at their noses. We will gut them like trout, then feed them to our pet lions.

The feeble foes at Seeking Alpha have awakened a giant beast who will feast on their skeletons and defecate on their SUVs.

My largest position is IMMR, followed by GOGO and TRLA. However, I have many irons in the fire, as any man with financial interests should. With the sort of coin we are banking now, great massacres should occur, following our victories and the enemy shall be given no quarter.

I predict the CVV squeeze will be relentless and bordering on the absurd. As always, trade with caution.

Back to making myself a sunbutter sandwich. It’s really good stuff.

I like the company, but the stock is a dog. I cut my losses at -10%.

Funds will be ushered in the appropriate places shortly.