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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

I AM NOW UP 6% FOR THE DAY

All of my securities have opened their wings and flocked to the sky, unafraid of Einhorns or other nefarious anti-aircraft devices. My positions have tested time and won.

Now all of you out there, reading these scribes, are probably losing your horses in this tape, scared of shadows, sick to your stomach from the churn. Rest assured, this is the 5th time the machines have destroyed Zion; they are becoming increasingly efficient at doing it. You have a choice to make now.

Either you ignore what you see in front of your faces and go play a game of tag with some of your adult friends outside. Or, you can sell everything, buy a bunch of oil stocks, and arrange for your own funeral. There isn’t anything left to do, other than play with the mirages.

The market started to drop, in lockstep, with NOW today. They reported better than expected results, had a few nice chaps at the old brokerage houses reiterate $84 price targets, only to see its shares eradicated from trade within 10 minutes of the opening tick. People in my business watched, in horror, as the stock dropped 14% from yesterday’s close. Panic set it, as the realization of nothing being able to arrest this decline set in, not even great earnings, and everyone ran for the exits, cloud stocks in particular. As we speak, some of those shares have recovered a great deal. What we are looking at is either the beginning a complete and absolute collapse in growth companies without earnings, or something less sinister in nature, but equally depressing–nonetheless.

What we are bearing witness to is the end of speculation. Very soon, all of the IPOs will be canceled and brokerage firms will fire 50% of their work forces to make ends meet. The economy will respond by tailspinning into the ground, completing the Obama legacy of nothingness and ineptitude. As this occurs, the Federal Reserve, chaired by Yellen, will continue to ignore the fact that this economy is dead without stimulus and there is nothing that can be done to save it, without artificially pumping it.

The better alternative will be to see this morning’s panic and subsequent reversal extend into the afternoon session, erasing all losses for those of you out there, less fortunate than I.

Fingers crossed, for the sake of America.

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I AM NOW +5% FOR THE DAY!

How wonderful. All of my stocks are +5% for the day, exing out their horrendous morning openings of course.

Look, I’ll shoot though my list of winners.

FEYE +3%

WDAY +4.5%

DATA +6%

YELP +4%

 

Do not become jealous, small pleb from middle earth, of my splendid ways. It’s not everyday that you come across a man, such as myself, who partakes in such daily stock market winnings.

The NASDAQS are putting in a nice showing this morning, +30 points from the lows. All of my friends and colleagues are making a great deal of money today. I have some good friends who are long NOW and are delighted with today’s +6% show, again exing out the most unfortunate opening tick.

My advice to you is to relax, sit back, and enjoy the programme.

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Let’s See Where the Stupid NASDAQ is at 3:59pm

Sure, the market looks great this morning, thanks to a slew of “better-than-expected-earnings.” I even promised to “punch the meat loaf out of the mouths of short sellers” today, declaring “100 NASDAQS” to the head is all but a foregone conclusion.

Howsoever, under the harsh exterior, the cold steel facade, I know this market is diseased, filled with people who are tripping over themselves to sell.

So, I am hoping to recover some of my ridiculous sized losses that were delivered to me yesterday, like a god damned African spear through my chest. But we’ll probably sell it off again, afraid of companies who grow their revenues because “this is another dot com bubble” and the pathetic perverts who manage money, professionally, have deemed innovation to be something of an albatross for economic growth.

May you all enjoy 10,000 years of uninterrupted stagnation in your electric utility holdings.

Looking at my pnl, I don’t have the right to gloat over a positive opening. As a matter of fact, please check me if I brag about anything, until I make it all back.

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THEORETICALLY, YOU SHOULD ALL BE DEAD BY TOMORROW

Might I impose on your Wednesday evening with news of your demise?

I realize the sting of my battle ax is a bit soft these days, considering I’ve missed out on the second popping of the tech bubble, down more than 22% for the year. However, for the sake of imagination, let’s surmise I’m a guy who was up 70% last year and who’s made money every single year, thrashing the markets to bits, since 2006–all live on the internets for the public to consume.

Now let’s suppose you went short today because of David Einhorn and his “bubble basket”, which was leaked on the youtube station two weeks ago. You went into the hole to sell stocks twice, bought a bundle of puts, then ventured off to iBankCoin to make fun of this chap who calls himself “The Fly”, an utterly ridiculous name. It’s almost too painful to watch, as he carelessly tosses good money after bad, all to be incinerated inside of flaming barrels of garbage. To add insult to injury, electric utility securities, as well as municipal bonds, outperform the broader indices, indeud.

You call this fellow, “The Fly”, all sorts of sordid names, under the protection of what you consider to be an inpenetrable wall of secrecy. The internet is your bestest of friends and you are empowered to let this poser know how very stupid he is, indeud.

Until your plan started going sideways. The panic that you invested in, rubber stamped by a certain David Einhorn, was predicated on the fact that high growth stocks weren’t going to grow anymore. But then they came out with better-than-expected-results, throwing acid into the faces of the people who gawked at them, waiting for execution. The stocks who were on death row broke loose–and were given sharp axes, made from VG 10 steel, and sent out into the crowd of watchers to exact a medieval brand of revenge. All the while, Le Fly, as he is known in France, activated his internet tracking software to find your exact whereabouts, for reasons soon to be revealed.

You might find yourself enjoying dinner, over a nice chardonnay, discussing politics with your brutish wife, when a man appears, kicks your door clean off its hinges and punches your jaw loose, ramming the chards from your chardonnay glass–all the way down– your– big– fat– mouths.

100 NASDAQS TO THE HEAD TOMORROW.

 

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Just Because Tech Stocks Are Cratering, That Doesn’t Mean They Ain’t Cool

Both AAPL and FB are set to post earnings tonight. The street cannot possibly be more negative heading into these reports. So.very.exciting.

I can hardly wait for my stocks to leg down another 5 points tomorrow, should FB miss. Did I tell you how appreciative I was to see all of the vagrants back in the comments section after 6 up days?

I am going to stop talking now, as I feel with a deep sense of superstition that the more I talk the lower my stocks dive.

Bidless tech sector, once again, plunging the dagger of speculative fervor deeper into the hearts of traders.

NOTE: But the Dow is barely down tho.

 

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More Bubble Talk

I don’t know whether to mock all of this talk about being in another tech bubble or be scared of it. Truth be told, it’s a very subjective topic, as the market, in some form or another, is continuously in price discovery mode. Whether it be tech, housing, banks or biotech, the valuations of these hot or cold sectors wholly depend on the mood of investors–plain and simple.

So, if people start to believe we are in a tech bubble, guess what: we will pop said bubble and the valuations of once rich tech companies will be reduced to garbage cans. My opinion won’t matter, as the chorus of bearish investors will scream at the top of their lungs to get out of tech. We can harbor opinions as to where XYZ belongs and we can buy those shares as they appreciate or decline, hoping to time it perfectly. But we’re never gonna nail it right. Investing is a messy thing, especially when you’re trading around a lot.

What is FB and YELP worth? Are we to value them at similar metrics, or should the smaller company be valued higher due to a possible takeover premium?

Will Bill Ackman assist in the next social media hostile takeover?

The world has a lot of questions and I have very few answers, sadly enough. However, don’t that stop you fine folks in the comments section from relaying certain truths about investing: how it should be done and where stocks are heading in the immediate, intermediate and long term.

After six days of gains, it’s depressing, frankly, to see most of my stocks down $3. It’s repetitive and even boring to lose money in such wanton fashion. I guess I could sell a bunch of stuff and “lock in” a cool 23% loss. Or, maybe I can weather the storm and wait for earnings to be the true arbiter of price discovery. Either way, you’re only as good as your last thesis trade. Thus far, I am an abohhrent mess–but can still find the time in my day to track down each and every one of you little trollops and correct your misdeeds–so remember that.

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BACK IN HELL

All of yesterday’s hard fought gains have been wiped out in the first twenty minutes of trade.

We were treated to a worse than expected PMI number and then an atrocious set of housing numbers. Apparently, the recovery in housing has taken a back seat to a FULL FLEDGED DEBACLE in housing. This is all very fine and dandy. As the world turns, a barrage of egg yolk pies splash me in the face.

For the sake of arguing with all of you, dare I say, buy the dip? Well, if you’re not gonna buy the dip, perhaps you can at least think about it? Or, if you don’t want to think about it, maybe you could just jot it down on a scrap of paper and leave it on your desk somewhere?

Naturally, the Dow and the S&P are barely lower because they don’t build houses or manufacture stuff. All of our homes are built by high growth tech and biotech companies, now’er days. YELP and FEYE are huge in the California housing market and might need to lay off some workers into this downtick. Also, the fine folks at DATA must be up in arms over the PMI miss. I am sure their factory line workers will not appreciate the pink slips to come.

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Breaking: The Ackman-Allergan Deal Isn’t Front Running–Not Even a Little Bit

“You are actually permitted to trade on insider information.”

–“Montauk Bill” Ackman, 2014

Aren’t we lucky to have heroes like Montauk Bill Ackman out there, making money for the benefit of the charities he donates to? On this glorious wednesday morning, I am also very grateful to have men like Joe Kernan, shill, CNBC, asking such hard hitting questions regarding the Valeant-Allergan-Ackman deal.

You’d also be pleased to know that another publicly traded company has approached Bill to assist them in taking over their prey, in the most hostile of ways. But he’s focused on this deal now and told those bozos to get in the back of the line and to wait their turn.

So, just to recap:

If you manage more than 10 billion dollars and a CEO from a publicly traded company calls to tell you they are going to acquire XYZ for 75% higher from where the stock trades, not only are you permitted to buy as many call options as your heart desires, it’s also your God given right– as a leader in the financial world– to profit from this exchange of information because you “never quit” and could “exact positive change” at the company you are targeting.

However, if you’re a self-made woman who sells towels at Sears and cooks pumpkin’d pies around halloween for the teevee, should your fucking broker call you up and tell you he heard XYZ is going to report bad earnings, suggesting that you sell it, should you do that, you will go straight to prison for several years.

Any questions?

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Guaranteed Respite: Dated Till Alibaba

Now that the market is rebounding, I am looking at a few things to keep me 110% long, as I attempt to claw back from a 30% deficit.

1. Facebook’s earnings. I feel good about them and expect them to beat and guide up.

2. AMZN and Apple earnings. They aren’t very important for momo names, more for the general health of the economy.

3. Alibaba’s IPO.

Bar none, the most important of the three, for Wall Street upright walking pigs, is the latter. This is going to be the biggest tech ipo ever. It might fetch $200 billion. I put the chances of the market being uprooted, from now until then (possibly next week), at a stiff 0%.

Now that we know David Einhorn is short a “bubble basket” of stocks, it’s only apropos for them to rip tits to the upside with reckless abandon, no?

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CUE PANIC BUYING

So many of you clowns are invested, mind you, in the ideology that we are at a top. Nothing other than price action is guiding you. You are unable to think for yourselves, objectively, as you fall victim to the stiff winds from the east. Watch the people on the teevee talk down today’s rally, the sixth consecutive up day following a ridiculous decline.

While you keep watching bonds, pondering why the world’s most manipulated market is misbehaving, stocks are rebounding. A lot of important hedge fund managers are short tech stocks here, working overtime to get them lower, by hook or crook. Their influence only goes as far as you allow it to go.

I made back nearly 3% today, down 19% for the year.

NOTE: Towards the end of the session, I added to both YELP and FEYE.

If these earnings reports come in better than expected, you are going to bear witness to an amazing short squeeze, one for the ages.

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