HAHAHA: This Makes Absolutely No Sense

We round tripped from +280 to -150, back to break even, and then lower again. Am I supposed to participate in this charade? Am I to pretend that I have an edge in the intra-day machinations of this nonsense? Computers, generated by perverse algorithms, are whip-sawing this market to and fro. The only person (s) who can successfully win in this tape are either the degenerate day traders or long term investors.

This sort of tape is the death knell for swing traders, which, unfortunately, constitutes the majority of you.

When I sat down to write this blog, the market was up 5; but now it is down 46. It has a certain “throw in the towel already” tone to it and I fear many a momentum stock will be immediately relegated to the trash bin tomorrow morning.

Do you recall that tech rout, during March-May of last year? The market behaved similarly: gap ups were faded and any rally was met with gigantic sell orders.

Truth be told, I am becoming a bit paranoid around the lot of you. The timing by which some of my positions are declining suggests chicanery, which in turn has resulted in my wearing of the infamous ‘African Jungle mask’. I know who you are and endeavor to kill you. Do not think that my paranoia cripples me, for it provides me with the power of 10,000 suns. “The Fly” will never relent, or forgive, so just know that when you bet against me.

Speaking of which, GPRO is knifing lower due to Apple filing a patent for a high def camera. Really? Are you people out of your fucking minds?

Back to my ritual.

It’s hard to describe how bad today’s reversal is, truly. It never felt right from the beginning, up so much on such little news. I didn’t want to believe this would happen; but none of my stocks were acting like a +300 day. Now we get this: pure, unfiltered, hell.

Biotechs are leading the way lower, naturally. And, much to my surprise, homebuilders are following in tow.

I’ve gone from being +1.5% to down 1.5% in just a few hours. The unfortunate part about the reversal is that the markets are still open for another 1.5 hours. I dread to see what this sell off looks like at 3:50.

But I don’t want to get super-negative on you, just yet. Let’s try to paint this pig, optimistically, and not panic out of the first real reversal of 2015. Who knows, maybe the market recovers and closes up  for the day? But God damn it, I strongly doubt that could happen. By the looks of it, we should see a centaur kicking his way onto the NYSE by 3:30pm, ushering in the apocalypse.

Again, I am trying to remain optimistic. Let’s just walk away from the computers and do something else. That sounds like a swell idea.

Resist the temptation to get long biotech here. I find myself increasingly lured into the sector, which can only mean it is ripe for destruction. The JP Morgan conference is ongoing and all of the money managers who knows dick to doorknobs about medicine are loading up on biotech winners. The second these stocks stop working, rest assured, they will be swinging in the gallows.

Now would be a great time to make a lateral move. With my money, I have a lot of irons in the fire. However, only one sector stands out as ‘must own’, due to prevailing circumstances, and that is the homebuilders.

My favorite is TPH. But you can buy LEN, TMHC, MHO, PHM or BZH.

The FHA is lowering annual insurance premiums, which is projected to spur 250,000 new home sales over the next 3 years. Couple that with record low rates, an improving jobs market, plunging oil, natty and copper, and you have a cocktail for an extraordinarily bulled up housing market. You can play it via proxies too, like LL, OC and USG. However, in my experience, if housing is going to forklift higher, it’s best to just buy the construction companies, as they’re levered to new homes sales and price appreciation.

I don’t like gap ups like this. The market is behaving like a child. Nonetheless, this is a trend that should continue and doesn’t pose horrific dangers–because the hot money isn’t here yet.

What a wonderful scene this morning, as the entire oil and gas industry sinks to the bottom of the ocean. At the same time, interest rates sink lower and every commodity known to man ‘normalizes.’ A skeptic might paint this beautiful piece of art as bullshit, hem and haw, then sell everything short. After all, it’s unbelievable that our beloved cost inputs (commodities) should trade lower each and every day. Surely it has to mean something ominous, something scandalous: death beckons, I just know it.

Or, we are re-entering the sort of market, a normal market, that doesn’t give a shit about commodities. Pray tell me, back in the 90’s and early 2000’s, did you even give oil or copper a second glance? It was only during the mid 2000’s, when China started to build ghost cities for future urbanites, that anyone really cared about miners and oil companies. In the past, oil was no more than 5% of one’s portfolio. Why? Because oil sucked.

Guess what, jackass? Oil sucks, yet again (extra Count of Monte Christo).

Eat the gobbledygook and try to behold the splendor of cancer medicines and software companies that aim to kill hackers. As inputs come in and interest rates sink into the dirt, the American consumer grows richer. Very soon, we will all prance about the boulevard in fur coats and canes made from 100% ivory, procured for us by our man-servants in the African jungles who enjoy killing elephants for sport. Our portfolios will grow, by leaps and bounds, permitting us to open harems stocked with the finest of wares.

To accomplish this future reality, this elysium on earth, all that you have to do is eat, mind you, the gobbledygook.

No, farmers aren’t driving lambos and it would’ve been a spectacularly stupid idea to leave your NYC condo for a fucking farm house in Nebraska. Commodities are in the midst of being ‘normalized.’ The great inflation scare, spurred on by feverish Chinese growth and then Fed QE, has ended. China is back to being a garbage economy and the Fed is chilling, atop 100’s of billions in bond market gains, unrealized, from the dark days of 2009.

I felt it’d be apropos, given we’ve almost lapsed 5 years since Jim Rogers’ incredibly inane prediction on commodities, to have a look under the hood of the raw commodity complex.

Five Year Returns

Oil -56%

Natural Gas -82%

Sugar -52%

Uranium -51%

Cotton +14.5%

Coal -61%

Copper -28%

Silver -11%

Wheat -43%

Corn -35%

Timber +42%

Gold +7%

Palladium +21%

Cocoa -21%

Coffee -21%

Don’t fuck with Dr. Bernanke.

SNDK is being gutted, alongside a myriad of oiled stocks. Breadth stands at 34% and biotech seems to be the last bastion of hope for this bulled up market. Then again, I envision the peni guillotine to come down upon those who chase medicine man stocks up here. Let’s not forget how Penny Dreadful those biotech declines can be.

Tanker stocks are catching onto main stream Wall Streeters. I invite them to BEHOLD the glory that is NNA, for its share price is absurdly undervalued.

Homebuilders are holding their erection and there are pockets of strength in software names. It’s a traders tape, certainly not something to invite Grandma to play with her retirement funds.

The Dow’d Jones will smash through 22,000 this year, amidst celebratory champagne corks exploding into the faces of those who bet against stocks. But, before we get there, games will be played and men with jelly donut faces will be ruined, tossed out from windows into idle sewer pipes.

This tape isn’t for your grandmother.

Trade with vigor and please expedite your tragic ending, so that the rest of us can begin enjoying this cheap gasoline fueled market.

It’s all over for you crude motherfuckers. The price of oil is dropping precipitously, emboldening our viagra filled congressmen to raise the fucking gas tax to astronomical levels, for the sake of your highways, roads and the bridges. After all, those roads aren’t gonna build themselves (insert gun shooting head pic here).

On the Twitter I’ve been discussing this matter, as well as many other important matters, and have been met each time with seemingly concerned citizens who are ardent supporters of higher taxes on your gasoline. After all, the country cannot stand for the middle to poor classes  to bask in the glory of cheap gasoline for a driving season. Immediately, we must press our hot irons onto their faces and declare “those roads aren’t gonna build themselves!”

After further inspection, these lads on the Twitter are nothing more than DC lobbyists, taking to social media, trying to convince the lower class folk to support castration and other policies that literally take food off the dinner table and into the fat bellies of scumbag construction bosses.

So oil is down the tubes and futures are slowly but surely giving it all up, whore style.

On the plus side, biotechs are the shit. NPSP, FMI, TKMR and others are through the roof. On that FMI deal, I like NSTG.

Look, I’m very happy that oil is dropping and all of the clowns working in the Bakken shale are going to be told to fuck off soon. But there is going to be some fall out, some ass-tarded bank who lent too much money to multiple bad actors (extra Orange is the new Black). Expect ruinous quarterly losses for some of your favorite oil stocks and spastically gay stock price pin action. Other than that, everything is peachy!

I’d like to thank our friends in OPEC for granting mercy on the American populous by lowering the price of crude oil. Although America has drilled oil every which way but loose, this great expansion in industrialism has netted zero advantages for my country, with exception to a few modern day oil barons like the Koch (cock) Brothers.

You say ‘Never Again‘ and I say ‘thank you very much’; please shut down our stupid shale production areas.

If buying oil exclusive from the great OPEC means $2.00 gasoline, I say fuck US oil production and let the good times roll.

This isn’t anything to run away from. There aren’t boogeymen (sp?) under your desks. It’s natural for man to fear, stockpile on rations, then lash out and kill his neighbors. We are a paranoid species; but a benevolent one–in the big scheme of things.

I remain stoic in my opinion that we are living through a renaissance of innovation, a period of great enlightenment, that will be reflected upon for thousands of years. They will point to this period of time, the merger between man and artificial intelligence, helped by computers, as the beginning of an era that ushered in ever-lasting gains in productivity and improvements in quality of life.

From medicine to the camera on your head, you are fortunate to be living now, so quit bitching and seeing the worst in things.

We are going, the fuck, higher.

I bought shares of MUSA and TA, after cutting loose long term holdings in GOGO and NUE.