Resist the temptation to get long biotech here. I find myself increasingly lured into the sector, which can only mean it is ripe for destruction. The JP Morgan conference is ongoing and all of the money managers who knows dick to doorknobs about medicine are loading up on biotech winners. The second these stocks stop working, rest assured, they will be swinging in the gallows.
Now would be a great time to make a lateral move. With my money, I have a lot of irons in the fire. However, only one sector stands out as ‘must own’, due to prevailing circumstances, and that is the homebuilders.
My favorite is TPH. But you can buy LEN, TMHC, MHO, PHM or BZH.
The FHA is lowering annual insurance premiums, which is projected to spur 250,000 new home sales over the next 3 years. Couple that with record low rates, an improving jobs market, plunging oil, natty and copper, and you have a cocktail for an extraordinarily bulled up housing market. You can play it via proxies too, like LL, OC and USG. However, in my experience, if housing is going to forklift higher, it’s best to just buy the construction companies, as they’re levered to new homes sales and price appreciation.
I don’t like gap ups like this. The market is behaving like a child. Nonetheless, this is a trend that should continue and doesn’t pose horrific dangers–because the hot money isn’t here yet.
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Got the GERN goin’ up… on a Tuesday
Also, FIG
I see what you did there.
Eh, Cap’n, yee still be holdin ‘dick in a box’? (LITB)?
-and I’ve been kicked in mee BALTs. Arrrr…
Cracked spreads just flipped. We may have a real bottom here, or the beginning of the process at the least
Mission abort, mission abort
Don’t forget about the plan to lower downpayments to 3% of the value of the house. That was super boolish last time too!
LOL the darling mortgage lender – http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-13/ocwen-ocdaed-stock-plummets-after-california-seeks-suspend-mortgage-license
Should kill myself for sticking with GPRO. Now Apple might get into the game?
surprise surprise market falling again
Homies getting lit the fuck up. $KBH just nasty
if you look at the chart, there was a perfect wedge that KBH was riding and there was a lot of time for another trip to the bottom. Upper 13’s is the perfect buy IMO.
BZH broke out, and now backtesting.
After all the chasers are flushed out, i think homebuilders are the place to be. I might even buy some KBH today. This action is a gift.
Upper 13’s is here and its looking like it wants upper 12’s at this rate.
For what it’s worth I live in a new TPH I just bought in Northern Cali. They build high quality homes and I am quite happy with mine. However, they really pack us in like sardines here and truly maximize their profits on the land they own. Also, they seem to be starting up several new developments here in the Bay area which has seen some crazy price appreciation in the last year. Seems like a good choice to me.
I think The Fly may have taken on a part-time day job to earn back some of last year’s losses.
wow just wow
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DITTO !!!
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At the risk of infuriatin yee Cap’n, I just had ta let yee know:
http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/01/5143209/the-worlds-top-10-financial-bloggers
GOOGL is a short
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppEJ8r7bQ2o
OUT-standing Smartest, never gets old!
Got $AMZN and $MNST puts a little earlier. $AMZN at $298 though, no lies. 🙂 Had sold those “dead” $GPRO puts I kept around, but I think $GPRO might bounce at $50, but regardless, low leverage on that one.
Really? This market is just fuckin’ stupid.