Don’t Get Ahead of Yourselves

You bearish types make me physically sick. The very sight of your comments makes me want to projectile vomit onto someone. Can you refrain from making predictions, please? Thanks.

Biotech still looks good. I know this trade is long in the tooth; but NDRM still looks great. I have a few more that I want to own, but will only do so once I sell either NDRM or XLRN.

Homebuilders are strong too. I am long TPH and have no desire to sell into this market decline.

We are down due to a cacophony of reasons, none of which makes any sense. I refuse to become subjected to group think and bare all of my senses, just because the market trades down for a day.

Let’s put things into perspective, shall we?

We rose by 325 points yesterday and have lost less than half that today. Net, net, we are doing fine.

Go eat a sandwich and shut the fuck up.

Rome wasn’t built overnight, you know. The oil trade is going to be an arduous one. Many men will be ruined in scandal; lives will be lost.

In the meantime, as men of substance and conviction, we will make our livelihoods amongst the pirates and the fish, long oil tanker stocks. The deeper the oil ditch is dug, the better it is for FRO, TNK, NNA, TLP and NAT.

After such a magnanimous week, I am expecting the market to reverse lower today. I am not betting on it, as I am 95% long. However, given the circumstances, one would assume profits will be taken.

Nonetheless, the jobs numbers were perfect and wage growth was stymied at just 1.7%, which means inflation is running at less than the Fed’s target of 2%. That means, ladies and gents, there is absolutely no way they can begin an insidious programme to destroy the US economy through rate hikes. ZIRP is here to stay.

You should get long some homebuilders.

To hell with the King of Saudi Arabia.

The dollar is on a ridiculous path. See chart.

It is up in the order of 25% since 2011, +14.5% over the past year, outperforming the SPY. Like I said: ridiculous.

However, think of the great boon this is for bedraggled microbes living out fanciful idiot lives in Europe and Brazil, amongst other savage places. They took their inferior currencies, bought our stocks, bonds and real estate, price in dollars, made +15% on the investment end and another +14.5% in our King Dollar.

America is the shit.

But the time has come for mean reversion. A great many of you are neatly tucked away in ‘fag-boxes‘ and will now be dispatched into outer space to live out the duration of your pathetic lives in destitute poverty. TLT, UUP, short oil will be losing trades over the next 6 months.

HERETO: now is the time to accumulate shares of SLCA, EMES, PDCE, DVN, CLR, ECR and FMSA, amongst others. Once the tide turns and oil breaks $55 to the upside, all of you fucking faggots will be tripping over yourselves, knifing each other in the backs, to get a piece of the action.

Since I am already positioned, I have nothing to do but wait.

As you were.

There is nothing that you or I can say, so let the eery silence speak for us.

YTD gains: +6.5%

I booked the TNK deal, one week +15%, and rolled into a new vessel (arrrr), buying up NNA.

I am looking for $4.5 on this one.

This should be the easiest trade of all time. Whether I get the timing right remains to be seen. But don’t kid yourselves, folks, the world’s central banks aren’t going to let deflation take hold. They are going to fight it until they can’t fight anymore. The proverbial kitchen sink is about to come flying out of the, err, kitchen.

This means QE for Europe, tax cuts/stimulus for China, the Fed talking down the dollar/up the need for inflation.

Post 55% drop in crude, it’s important that you know someone got smashed to pieces on this trade and the move lower was likely exacerbated by forced selling. I read a stat yesterday that pointed to the decline of magnitude that just took place in crude, with 5 previous precedents. In all 5 cases, crude rallied by 50% inside of 6 months, after the sell off.

So, if I am right and reflation is going to happen, what happens next?

-Commodities find a bid.
-The dollar stops going up. I am not a dollar bear because Europe is about to do QE.
-Stocks going apeshit to the upside.
-Bonds get pummeled.

The relationship between the long bond tracking higher with SPY will stop, almost immediately. We are at a tipping point and the long bond must trade lower, or stocks. My position is fairly simple: either TLT drops 15 points or the Dow drops 1,500 points. The market can no longer accept this lack of correlation, based on historical precedence, to continue.

Reflation must happen. Ergo, get your rally caps on.

Top picks: NDRM, TNK, HABT

With futures up more than 100, I think it’s safe to declare victory for The PPT lauded oversold signal, which was flagged the day before last. It’s not uncommon for the algorithms to nail the inflection point on the exact day, or even hour. As a matter of fact, feel free to ask some of our members and they will tell you it’s rather common place.

Looking over the recent data, my near term target for an oversold bounce is SPY to $204-206. If you went long index calls or TNA due to the signal, you want to book gains today or tomorrow, considering the volatility in the markets. Over the past 12 months, The PPT oversold signal is 10 up and 1 down after 1 day, which speaks to the immediacy of the timing. Over the past 3 months, the signal is flawless, 3-0, lasting through 10 days.

Since the average return is 2-4% post signal, one would need to adhere to the rule of numbers, respect the SHOMP and book profits here, and then wait for another OS to pop up again. We usually get one per month.

I could not say it better myself.

Sam Harris=Boss

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cC0ePcUhbps
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GBOPhWP0Oc

That is all.

Amen.

Today was nice and everyone made a bit of money. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Small capped stocks have been the bane of the market for more than a year. With TLT north of $130, the evil, dark, forces are emboldened to speak through devils, like Rickard Santelli.

I have no reason to celebrate today, just like I had no reason to worry about the past few.

What this market needs is some significant momentum to get the juices going again. How much momo? We need 1,000 points, straight up, led by technology and high beta gambling stocks.

Europe is in the grips of crippling deflation. They need to act now and start to QE Bernanke style, otherwise this rally is toast.

Top picks: homebuilders, biotechs

This shit gets old. Dr. Benjamin Bernanke, from the grave, cold snatched your bear necklace and tossed you into a garbage can.

Fed minutes suggest they WILL NOT move on interest rates before April meeting. Hell-fucking-lo, I’ve been saying this for how long now? Watch the market melt up, super retard style, as if this was a big surprise.

Idiots abound.