Retarded First Day of 2023

I squandered an early gain via poor trading and ended down 23bps. I can hem and haw about it till the fucking cows get processed into ribeyes — but this is part and parcel of being a tradoooor. Sometimes you crush and other times you flop. To be down 23bps on a day when the NASDAQ was down 76 is acceptable and I will try harder tomorrow!

Myself aside, this was an abysmal day of the longs. They must’ve fashioned themselves to be aristocrats this morning, gazing at the futures atop their steaming mugs of black coffee. I bet they added at the open, fancying themselves to be “takeover artists” like Gordon Gekko. After all, it’s fun to pretend.

By the time their mugs emptied it filled again but with black smoke and their faces took on a minstrel show like quality — as losses stacked and more than that — their confidence shattered.

There is nothing to be enjoyed by today’s first day of trade. If anything, the 4% collapse in crude is warning of harsh economic slowdowns, on par with, and not exclusive to, the deleterious inventory build ups in nearly all US companies. According to Stocklabs, inventories rose 16% last year. Some morons like Target increased their stores by 43%. Now they’ll need to sell all of that shit into a slowing economic backdrop with Mad Dog Powell at the helm, war on the horizon, and doom around the bend.

This being my 16th year blogging at iBankcoin, I can honestly say I’ve seen it all. Today’s tape is a wholly unremarkable consideration, tech ok, energy hammered. We have seen this before, mostly a statement that the weather is better than expected and all of the doom surrounding the Ukrainian war and commodity supplies were greatly exaggerated. High beta/risk names are DOWN solidly, just like all of last year.

There is one outlier, however, and that is shares of TSLA — now down 13.6% on no news.

Did we somehow find a very cheap source of fuel and no longer require EVs? Or perhaps maybe lithium batteries causes cancer? Or perhaps the ELITE SCUM don’t like what he’s allowing on Twitter?

You be the judge.

All weekend I saw retarded articles pointing out how Musk lost most money last year than anyone before. I also read how Disney’s stock dropped most since 1974, attached with the catchy phrase “Go woke, Go Broke.”

It’s all childish and stupid.

We are most likely entering the very worst economic environ since 2002. You’d be wise to measure your enthusiasm during ALL rallies in 2023, for it shall be just as bad — IF NOT WORSE — than 2022.

There’s an old Wall Street myth called the January Effect, which states show me the first week of trading and I’ll show you how your year will be. I’m starting out almost exactly FLAT, 100% cash until afternoon. Those are my rules and I won’t deviate. As a whole markets look middling. We jumped and then dumped. But under the hood, the dollar is soaring and oil and gas dumping out.

Over at House Fly, the entire house has COVID except me. I mingle amongst those with plague and do not catch it, although I am feeeeeeeling a bit sluggish and tired. I had a very terrible bout of COVID myself about 3 months ago, which was featured with 104 temps for two weeks straight. Perhaps I’m immune. Either way, and I know this sounds crazy, but I just don’t give a fuck.

TSLA is down 8% this morning and it’s awfully dreadful to begin the year in such a fashion. It seems, and this could be my bias speaking, we very well might CRASH the opening of 2023, sending all of you PERMANENT BULL types packing.

All of the fats scrambled to the gym this morning in order to lose 100 pounds TODAY. They’re working themselves hard, running, lifting, even swimming. They are wholly dedicated, this time around, to shed the pounds and become a healthier person. Naturally they waited for the New Year’s to tackle this all important task, cramming in chocolate cake and copious amounts of BEER into their gullets before the year ended. After all, New Year’s Eve represented the very last day of poor health and habits and from 2023 on they’d be an exemplary examples of discipline and fitness.

Then Valentine’s Day will swing around and chocolate will be devoured, as well as CHEESED CAKE for dessert to celebrate his future divorcee. And then St. Patrick’s Day will descend upon him and then the fucking Easter’D Bunny and then his Birthday and then FOUTH OF JUUL-IE. Before you know it, Mr. January the first gym rat will be 10 pounds heavier by next Thanksgiving — all because of the mentality of neeeeding to comfort himself with decadent things and foods and to subsist from these things, even for the benefit of health, would be an inconvenience at the moment and should be hauled off for a later date.

YOU PIECE OF SHITS!

Stop making resolutions and pretending that the future is going to be any different from the past. The only time frame that you need to worry about, borrowing a unique character trait from NPCs, is the present.

If you like to eat whole loaves of bread for breakfast, fucking do it. If you enjoy being 300 lbs and don’t give a fuck — GOD BLESS. You can only die once and living to please others is a dreadful way to exist.

I have no resolutions for 2023 because I’m not a child. I have expectations and goals that I’d like to achieve — but only focus on the one’s that are attainable. When I was a boy I’d have all sorts of pie in the sky ideas and goals; but life has STOLEN that vigor from me and now I exist in machine like discipline to crank out what is expected from me. On the blog, you could expect 3 blogs per day and dedication to stocks with an occasional outburst of politics — because my right wing nature demands it. Inside Stocklabs, you should expect me to curse out my customers every day, while at the same time help them achieve retirement goals vis a via my first class trading performance — which they are entitled to follow.

NOTHING MORE!

Good day.

This is a good post to bookmark in order to reference for future bear markets which stocks to avoid and gravitate towards. With high interest rate environ, companies with debt were trashed the most and commodity oriented stocks, in light of inflation, did well. We also saw a traditional flight to staples and healthcare.

Good day

It was a fine year, but not without controversy. We endured many battles inside Stocklabs and the drama was always quite high. But at the end of the day, in spite of the many trials and tribulations, Le Fly closed at recourd highs — capping off the year +61.6%. My quant, which is wholly automated, closed +7%. My algo account, which is dedicated towards the trading of the oversold signals, was +12%.

For the session, I had some short positions that caused me to waiver and I closed down 20bps, but up nearly 10% for December. I closed with a 100% long book, hedged using margin with a 20% SQQQ position.

We had fuck you candles to wrap up the year, because why not?

The NASDAQ recovered most of its losses but still closed down 11, so relax.

By all accounts, it was an abysmal year.

It is my belief that this was 2001, post collapse of the bubble we had in 2000 (2020). We are now heading into 2002 (2023) and will suffer a similar fate as we did in 2022. If you’re following this timeline, we do not bottom until 2024.

Thank you for reading during 2022. iBankCoin traffic enjoyed an unusual spike of 60%, as the unwashed masses searched far and wide for sage advice to save them from the pangs and horrors of a downward spiraling stocked market. Cheers to you and yours and may the Gods bless you in 2023 with enough health and wealth to remain a reader of iBC and perhaps join our band of jokesters inside the hallowed confines of Stocklabs.

CIAO!

It was a dreadful year for the unwashed pleb, which is why we will crash ze close for olde times sake — in order tp twist the knife into his/her/they/them gut proper. I know what you’re thinking “oh how dare you — how evil.” But fuck you.

I want to see the markets burning to a cinder, likely rooted in my own personal redundant grim outlook on life. NEVERTHELESS, I remain optimistic about this one thing: the systematic destruction of Pax Americana.

“But why Fly — democracy is so awesome. Don’t you like to vote?”

No, and fuck off.

It doesn’t really matter what I think, after all, does it? We can only hope to find a small salient of peace when alive, perhaps a good cigar or two, maybe a nice bottle of red wine, and then off we go into the dirt of eternity.

Into the close, and this goes without saying, I AM BEARISH.

Markets rarely trade down for more than a year. In recent history, this -35% drubbing for the NASDAQ is only matched by the 2008, 2000 and 1973.

Granted, the previous 3 years saw the market up by 100%. Similarly, when the dot coms blew up in 2000, the market had previously more than doubled years prior.

The question you have to ask yourself heading into 2023 is this:

Will the FOMC or govt tax policies be conducive to higher stocks or not?

Without the Fed, 2009 would’ve been a disaster. With the 10yr at 3.9% again, markets are implying the inflation scare isn’t over. Like in 2000-2003, we are coming off a high sugar rush and into economic turmoil.

But even in 2001, 2002, and 2003: markets didn’t do that bad in January. It wouldn’t surprise me to see markets bid higher in January predicated off some false open, only to see it washed away into the sewers in February.

The NASDAQ just dumped out the worst in the month of December since 2002. This isn’t the time of year for large market declines, so you have to ask yourselves this question now: “am I feeling lucky, punk?”

Gents

What else is there to say? Since launching Stocklabs I have made my trading completely open and tracked via portfolios and have shone returns of 218% in 2021 and 62% in 2022. My 2020 was even better — but since I only traded inside SL for +53% of it, I won’t boast about it here in this blog.

Why do I tell you this? Am I perhaps offering to show you the secrets via a very affordable COCKLABS membership? ABSOLUTELY NOT.

See pal, fish can’t fly and birds, for the most part, cannot swim. Track stars are born — not made. You want to have nice returns like Le Fly? The answer is simple: fish less, eat more fish. Just follow my trades and live happily ever after. I am doing the hard work for you — possessing the innate skills that are necessary to achieve supremacy.

In the past there have been folks, like JMORON and GOLDENJOE, who came to Stocklabs for a few months — blew themselves to fucking smithereens due to misalignment and “discretionary” sojourns, and then had to quit the service due to lack of funds. I will tell you and show you how I do it. If you attempt to do it yourselves, odds are you’ll end up like JMORON outside with a tinned cup and homeless dogs looking for scraps of sandwiches to warm up his body for the winter cold.

I don’t have a wine cellar or $8,000 worth of cigars, 100,000 rounds of 50 cal ammunition: but I have talent and over time, especially if I am able to stop Mrs. Fly from spending all of my money, I too might scrounge up enough coin to buy 100,000 rounds of ammunition to prepare myself for home intruders.

We haven’t had an oversold signal in months. For the year, the account I dedicated for the algo account returned 12%.

It has been very inactive due to no signals and solely dedicated to only OS signals. In 2023 that is going to change, as I intend to also include the overbought algos into my trading. It seems, and this is new for our algorithms, the bear market has produced actionable and profitable trading opportunities on the short side.

Here is the data for QQQ overboughts in 2022.

That’s an average loss on the QQQ of 4% following an overbought signal over the past 12 months. That’s enough for me to determine it’s worth a shot, using inverse ETFs to position into this periods of bullishness.

Overall, I suspect markets will be bludgeoned in 2023, which fits my world view and makes me feeeeeeel nice at night.