Worst December Since 2002

Markets rarely trade down for more than a year. In recent history, this -35% drubbing for the NASDAQ is only matched by the 2008, 2000 and 1973.

Granted, the previous 3 years saw the market up by 100%. Similarly, when the dot coms blew up in 2000, the market had previously more than doubled years prior.

The question you have to ask yourself heading into 2023 is this:

Will the FOMC or govt tax policies be conducive to higher stocks or not?

Without the Fed, 2009 would’ve been a disaster. With the 10yr at 3.9% again, markets are implying the inflation scare isn’t over. Like in 2000-2003, we are coming off a high sugar rush and into economic turmoil.

But even in 2001, 2002, and 2003: markets didn’t do that bad in January. It wouldn’t surprise me to see markets bid higher in January predicated off some false open, only to see it washed away into the sewers in February.

The NASDAQ just dumped out the worst in the month of December since 2002. This isn’t the time of year for large market declines, so you have to ask yourselves this question now: “am I feeling lucky, punk?”