Yesterday the market hated Draghi and the Fed; today the market loves them. The market allegedly rallied off good jobs numbers today, numbers that are sure to provide the Fed with the excuse they need to raise rates, something stocks have responded adversely to for the past 5 years. As sure as I’m sitting here, come Monday, everyone gets fucked. We remain in a trendless sea of shit, with just one oar to fight against the coriolis forces of the toilet bowl we find ourselves in.
I was stymied by SHAK and PAH today, placing me in the bottom quartile of all long investors in N. America, up just 0.95%. I had a few redeeming stocks today, namely CNC, AAPL, PANW, COST and JAZZ. But, for the most part, my day was uneventful.
Two thousand and fifteen is nearly done and I’ve made 15%, in a tape that can only be described as a “sordid affair of fuckery intermingled with the nefarious ongoings of asshats.”
Talking with clients all day, I can tell you that formulating a strategy for 2016 is hard. On one hand, commodity and retail stocks offer “potential” upside reversals, merely tradable events. On the other are solid companies, like PANW, SBUX and others trading at crazy premiums.
Do you chase the performance and buy the free cash flow, or do you buy what’s being thrown away here, heading into 2016?
Had you done the latter in 2014, you made a mint in the opening month’s of 2015. Either way, this is a hard tape to gauge and I’m gonna play it slow.
In addition to that, I’m working on my GARP stocks in Exodus, a portfolio of 15 stocks that I manage twice per year. The first half picks gained almost 15%. During the second half, my picks underperformed–putting 2015 at almost a wash. The index started the year at $132, got as high as $157, and now trades at $132. I’ll make a greater effort in 2016.
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