This Morning’s Movers and Shakers

dollar crushed by 0.55% v euro, NASDAQ futs up 8, oil flat

Higher

Kick-ass earnings: BAC +2.8%, ADTN +1.9%, DAL +1.6%, LLTC +1.8%, CSX +1.6%, WFC +1.0%, PNC +0.2%

M&A related: SNDK +10.1%; report out they hired banksters to arrange a sale

Euro-trash banks: CS 1.7%, DB 1.5%, HSBC 0.5%

More Euro-trash, this time pharma: SHPG +2.7% (initiated with a Nutella Good at Northland Capital), NVS 1.1%, GSK 1%, AZN 1%

Metals and Miners higher: RIO +2.6%, BBL +2.3%, MT +2.2% (initiated with a check this shit out at Berenberg), VALE +1.9%, GOLD +1.6%, FCX +1%, SLV +0.9%, BHP +0.3%

Euro-Trash oil: SDRL +3.8%, STO +1.6%, RIG +1.5% (higher despite downgrade from bucket shop, Seaport Global Securities), RDS.A +1.1% (upgraded to God Amongst mortals at Argus; tgt $73), BP +0.9%.

Random shit: CASI +14.7% (orphan bullshit…europe), TRIP +10.2% (Did a deal with the man, at PCLN), ZFGN +4.1% (after dropping a gazillion points the past two days, this garbage is up now), ZEN +3.5% (acquires some piker company), MU +2.3%; up on SNDK deal talk or INTC eps beat), AKRX +1.7% (boring), STON +1.6% (CRAMER PUMP), HABT +1.4% (Wells Fargo discloses monster stake), CQP +1.3% (Blackstone takes 5.5% active stake)

Analyst nonsense: MCD upgraded to this isn’t poison anymore at some random boiler room, PBMD +10.7% (initiated with a Cool Shit at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $3), ADI +1.7% (upgraded to Everything is Awesome from Boring at BMO Capital), ECA +1.3% (initiated with a Holla at Your Boy at Deutsche Bank), DYAX +0.6% (upgraded to The Good Shit from Skunk Weed at Leerink Partners), MNK +0.5% (initiated with a Jammin’ at Northland Capital), AXTA +0.5% (initiated with a Blue Horse Shoe Buy at RBC Capital Mkts), HAIN +0.5% (initiated with an Crack at Cowen), VFC +0.3% (upgraded to BUY THIS NOW at Piper), XON +1% ( initiated with a This Can Go Either Way at BofA/Merrill).

Lower

Shitty earnings: CPHD -13.5%; this company is a huge piece of shit (also downgraded to piece of shit at Raymond James; target lowered to $47 at Needham), CFX -9.9% HAWK -6.1%, HASI -4.4% (dilutive offering to boot), INTC -2.6% (also upgraded to pretty good from meh at Summit Research), ASML -2.4%, OZRK -1.6%, JPM -1.4%.

AG -9.8%; nonsense company, DOC -4.9%; no one really cares, NVCR -3.3%; recent IPO, time to crush shareholders, BRG -1.6% (financial engineering horseshit), RCL -1.3% (mystery!), IRWD -1% (phase 3 lotto), COP -0.6% , AAPL -0.5%; Tim Cook is still gay and dating, )

Analyst dart throws: GPRO -1.7% (downgraded to garbage from treasure at Piper Jaffray), UA -1.3% (downgraded to huge pile of shit at Piper Jaffray), DISCA -1.1% (ticking lower; downgraded to no opinion from this is great at Macquarie), TWTR -0.9% (downgraded to laughable from buy at JMP Securities), ORCL -0.8% (downgraded to snooze fest from awesome party at JMP Securities), WLL -0.4% (downgraded to turd from good stufff at Deutsche Bank).

Its been several months since my last bout of unparalleled generosity. My spiritual advisor recommended that I do it again.

Effective tomorrow, the good folks at iBankCoin will grant free and unfettered access into our world class market intelligence platform, called Exodus. Trust me when I tell you, there is nothing else like it out there, especially for retail.

All you need to do is email Vince: [email protected] or myself [email protected] and you will be hooked up through the weekend. When inside, I strongly suggest emailing us again for a free live one on one demo.

Congratulations on your gift. Consider this to be my spiced soul’s cake, granted to you, the neighborhood beggar. Go say some prayers for me now and ask God to release my relatives from purgatory (extra Halloween).

Be well,

Fly

The Chinese economy is completely in the shitter and the government is immersed with stopping busines in Macao, due to moral concerns. Morons.

Words cannot express how fucked they are, save their $3.5 trillion in cash reserves, of course. They need a massive stimulus program, now.

China’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.6 percent in September from a year earlier, against forecasts of a 1.8 percent rise from a Reuters poll and following August’s 2 percent gain.
The producer price index (PPI) fell 5.9 percent, in line with expectations and after a 5.9 percent fall in the previous month.
The PPI, which measures wholesale prices, clocked its 43rd straight month of decline as overcapacity in a number of sectors coupled with a lack of demand to keep a lid on prices.

The Shanghai is down just 0.36%. I feel we are at a point that the Chinese government has to announce some sort of stimulus package soon. If so, expect a strong bounce in China related commodity names.

Last year, in Exodus, I created a ‘Bubble Basket’ to properly assess market risk. It’s a completely objective index of about 100 high valuation stocks, all trading outside of their peer group. The purpose of this index is to see get hard data and isolate this segment of the market, which stretches across many different asset classes.

Here is the chart.

Over the past 3 months, the bubble basket is down 19.8%. Over the past month, it is down 5.8%. And over the past two weeks, it is +3.18%.

I think it’s fairly representative of the market and how growth without profits is being tossed into sewer pipes.

Interestingly enough, the last time this index bottomed was one year ago today, on October 13th, 2014.

Have a look.

This is wholly ridiculous. The VC community keep jerking each other off, buying and selling shit, making billions, while we starve here in the open fields of broken down stocks. I feel like a serf working the plow and my master is inside the house fine dining on next to extinct, exotic, animals.

“The Fly” wants to eat extinct animals too and partake in this grande chicanery. But no, the banksters 2.oh, the VC edition, keep their best investments private for extended periods, hyper inflating their values to unsustainable levels, and then they dump this shit into my fields hoping that I could make crops with the fertilizer.

Like bastard Russia or fraudulent China, this country is corrupt from the top down, a new oligarchy of tech nerds and motivational speakers infect our society with their brand of mendacity. I’m afraid all of these caitiffs have uncorked my vials of wrath and I will never stop ranting and raving until I am placed in an asylum.

Five of my top 6 positions were higher today.

I opt to rely upon my BIDU position for profit because the Chinese are clear with their intentions to lie and cheat, in order to succeed, unlike the big jowled florid faces of our financiers, fucked faces of the first order.

I keep waiting and waiting for this fucking market to allow me the opportunity to dance on the graves of my enemies, urinate down on my foes from atop mountain; instead, all I get is this back and forth horseshit, with one clown car blowing up after the next.

It’s never cool for entire asset classes to disintegrate. The oil and gas implosion happened and I made very little noise about it–because my exposure was limited. Now the biotech sector is under seige; and again, I am laughing at it because I am not the one on the chopping block.

When the social media sector blew up for the first time, I was horrified by the outcome.

I know we’re all experts out there, sagely walking through this minefield of financial fuckery. I wouldn’t blame or cast aspersions upon any of you for having a rough go at it these last few years. This is a market to break gurus in half, shit them out, and flush them into the mouths of alligators. That was very disgusting. I know it. But that’s how I feel with this tape: utterly disgusted.

My bear blogger Bluestar is posting large picture of vermin, which is fitting. For the day, I’ll probably make some money; and in the past, I might’ve made fun of you for losing coin.

Not today. “The Fly” is turning over a new leaf with his readers, one with unparalleled understanding and comradery. For the time being, we’re all in the same boat, trying to figure out how to survive. Consider this a detente, a temporary ceasing of hostilities for the benefit of all.

Top picks: BIDU, SLCA, SHAK

NOTE: Fred’s ETSY is at a new 52 week low.

I’ve never been much of a zombie genre fan. Fuck zombies, unless they’re real.

According to “live plus same-day” estimates from Nielsen, the zombie drama averaged a monster 7.43 rating in adults 18-49 and 14.6 million viewers overall — up slightly over the show’s season 5 averages but below its fall 2014 premiere (8.65 in 18-49, 17.29 million total viewers). That year-ago opener remains the show’s highest-rated telecast on record.

Well, I sold my AMCX stock last week, so I have no exposure to today’s 3 point drop. My only question to you, the zombie fan freak: how was the season premier? Do you think ratings will improve?

If so, AMCX is a buy.

Basic logic here. I’ve always wondered why I never bought and held this. By this, I mean XIV, inverse VIX.

Only recently has volatility creeped up, causing this fine ETF to get cut in half. Alas the life of a volatility trader. Nevertheless, it has rallied off the lows, now about $30. Should the panic subside and things get back to normal again, I have no doubt that XIV will be back to new highs.

It has been a matter of Federal Reserve policy to remove uncertainty from the markets, literally, which is why the VIX has been mired in the doldrums for years. There are brief periods of excitement. But, the over-arching trend has been to grind volatility into the dirt and to have very orderly and methodical moves higher in the broader indices.

We know China is weak. We don’t need no stinkin’ data to tell us that. The market is a forward looking indicator, not backwards. The question for today is: will China take the necessary steps to give their economy a jolt? Is there any room for improvement?

If so, then like Carl ‘give me three seats on your board’ Icahn, buy FCX.

The news out of Twitter is good. They need to cut the chaff, because clearly the wheat is being lost.

For me, I need this China scare business to dissipate and I need a fucking rally, right now. I extended myself last week, going all in on a varietal of names. I had some success last week and would like to build upon it. But the nature of this market is an evil one. It hems and haws, teases both longs and shorts; but fucks all parties in the end.

We fucking rally now or sink into oblivion. That’s my position and I’m not going to waiver.

They also reaffirmed guidance. If by guidance, they meant losing large sums of money on a continuous basis; they assured us of that too.

Twitter sees Q3 revenue and adjusted EBITDA at or above the high end of the previously forecasted ranges of $545-560 mln and $110 million to $115 million, respectively.
This compares to $559.46 mln Capital IQ revenue consensus estimate.
Co confirms that on October 12, 2015, the Board of Directors approved a restructuring and reduction in force plan of up to 336 employees, constituting approximately 8% of the company’s global workforce. This had been speculated about in the media.
TWTR estimates it will incur approximately $10 million to $20 million of cash expenditures, substantially all of which will be severance costs. Total restructuring expenses are estimated at $5M to $15M, which is lower than cash restructuring costs due to a credit related to non-cash stock-based compensation expense reversals for unvested stock awards.
Excerpt from letter to employees from CEO Jack Dorsey: “Product and Engineering are going to make the most significant structural changes to reflect our plan ahead. We feel strongly that Engineering will move much faster with a smaller and nimbler team, while remaining the biggest percentage of our workforce. And the rest of the organization will be streamlined in parallel.”

The stock is up 1.5% in pre-market trading in a really tough tape. I like the stock here and feel these moves were necessary. I am long.