Markets Are Gonna Explode to the Upside Today — Winshippery For All!

The President is out with another 1680s mercantile economy policy tweet this morning.

Tariffs are the greatest! Either a country which has treated the United States unfairly on Trade negotiates a fair deal, or it gets hit with Tariffs. It’s as simple as that – and everybody’s talking! Remember, we are the “piggy bank” that’s being robbed. All will be Great!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 24, 2018

Nevertheless, Nasdaq futures are +70, Dow up more than 100. But the bigger news is the outrageous breakout in the cryptos. BTC is higher by 6.2%, ETH +2%. I suspect this is going to have a profound effect on blockchain related stocks at some point. Do yourselves a favor and get long some.

What we have here, ladies and gents, is a good olde fashioned melt up. Prepare for massive winship on a varietal of levels.

What stocks to buy? There are so many. But I’d stick to SAAS related stocks with a comfy intermingling of Chinese burritos. Should this crypto move prove to be cock-sure, get long some blockchain plays and make yourselves several gimlets, to enjoy the balance of your day both splendidly drunk and wealthy.

This is what I wrote last night, when the futures were down and spirits were low.

Everything you see tonight is a lie. The NIKKEI down more than 1%, Nasdaq futures down 33 — all fibs. By the time you awaken from your slumber tomorrow morning, things will be green and beautiful again.

How did that age?

Now I’m up 1% for the day. Any questions?

I give you the mindset to win. The tools are available to you in Exodus. You have no excuse for this continued habit of mediocrity. I’ll let you in on another secret — barely anyone gets rich from trading. All real investors know this. You want to get rich? Have a plan and stick to it and aim for slightly better than the benchemark results year after year. Work your asses off at your 9-5 job, minimize expenses, and keep investing money.

Every 5-8 years, your account will double. Keep at it. After 20 years, you’ll be rich, or close to it. I promise you.

In spite of everything, markets went higher today. Apparently, the President is spreading rumors about GDP being +4.8%, both egregious and also incredibly BIG if true.

I closed the day out an extreme winner. You tried to stop me, but failed — once again.

Good day to you.

I bought FIVN — because nothing can stop me. Should you try to get in my way, I will break every bone in your manlet body.

Lest you forget who I am, you’d be wise to steer clear of me.

I recall the market, circa 2005ish, was completely and absolutely ruled by retail stocks. The fate of hot growth companies like True Religion and Abercrombie and Fitch made the market. People would readily and proudly profess the US was a retail nation, citing the fact that 70% of our GDP was derived, more or less, from consumer spending.

Back in those days, Amazon was only doing $1-2 billion in sales per quarter, a very anemic number when considering they do upwards of $50 billion per quarter now.

The malls were brimming with people and the lines were always long. There was a certain energy you could feel when in a certain store, in a certain locale, and it made you buy the stock. I recall making a small fortune based off some decent experiences inside Sears back in the days. Now the place is a cemetery.

The kids these days will never know what it’s like to be a mall-fag — gallivanting to and fro in order to cash in coupons and beat the weekend crowd. Those parking lots were hard to navigate and spots near the doors were almost impossible to grab.

How about this for a sad stat.

Back in 2005, Macy’s did roughly 4x the revenues of Amazon, at around $5-6 billion per quarter. Today, Amazon does 10x the revenues of Macy’s, who unbelievably, still does $5 billion per quarter.

The mall will never be the same. Sad, believe me.

I rarely if ever get writer’s block. When I sit down to write it just flows through me with ease. I can write for hours at times, a free train of thought mostly unbridled and free from restriction. But after I read the following tweet I had to sit here for a while and think about how to describe it. Should I simply state the obvious, this is a batshit tweet by our President who is supposed to be a ‘stable genius?’ Or, should I marvel at the fact the markets are pointing up, in spite of it?

Should I discuss the specter of war with Iran and what a blockage of the Straights of Hormuz would do to Brent?

To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 23, 2018

I’d like to get back to not caring about what the President of the United States thinks on a minute by minute basis, if you wouldn’t mind. Truth is, it’s all very well and funny and I do appreciate the notion that half the country are having aneurysms over this Presidency — but even I have my limits and I’m feeling a bit fatigued.

All I really want to do is have good food and drinks, make a lot of coin in the stock market, and hang out near a large body of water, preferably with sand nearby. Is that too much to ask?

WTI is lifting on this “news” and I am the last person you should listen to when it comes to crude. However, I do believe markets will shoot higher today, so perhaps you should prepare for a spate of winship good fellow.

Everything you see tonight is a lie. The NIKKEI down more than 1%, Nasdaq futures down 33 — all fibs. By the time you awaken from your slumber tomorrow morning, things will be green and beautiful again. Why don’t you take the day off from work tomorrow and trade from the beach? It seems like a reasonable thing to do. I highly recommend Sunset Beach in Cape May — for road tripFAGS out there. It has to be my top 5 beach in the United Steaks.

The one advantage the east coast has over the west is our beaches. One could actually swim in them, sans a fucking wet suit. The Pacific Ocean is wonderful and fierce, but it’s cold as shit, just like the hearts and souls of all the vacuous people who live there. The east coast is steeped in tradition, dating back to the founding of this great nation. If you live on the west coast and not a derivative from a famous family bloodline, odds are your from poor DNA stock — a vagabond or a criminal who carried on via a chuck wagon out west in order to escape prison and/or to capture some fool’s gold. After failing, great grandpa settled down near the cold as shit ocean, married some unlucky woman, and spit out 10 kids. That’s California, more or less; prove me wrong.

Bitcoin is higher — but so what.

Come join us in Exodus. Tomorrow is gonna be fun, believe me.

Ciao and goodnight.

I hope you’re enjoying the seasonal weather and taking advantage of your opportunity to make some memories. The market will always be here, even when we’re long gone, but youth is fleeting and before you know it — you’ll be getting kicked down a flight of stairs while in your wheeled chair.

I always tell people to lower their expectations during the summer months. Traditionally, this is a do-nothing time of year, as most men of leisure of circumstance are summering in Nantucket or Newport, or some other North East locale worth traveling to.

As a matter of fact, for the month of August, bonds perform best, with a little side order of gold — according to Exodus‘ seasonality engines.

TLT

QQQ

IAG

Come September, volatility will be kicking up again, junior of the trading turret will be unceremoniously kicked off and things will begin to get back to normal. Even though it’s tempting to believe in a great big gay summer rally, it most likely will elude us, so use this time to research and plot for the fall.

I discussed the divergences in my last post. Expect more of the same, an ideal tape for incredible traders, such as myself, to thrive in, whilst leaving everyone else in the fucking dust.

Off to walk the dogs and chase down some rabbits.

If you’re frustrated with this market, especially after reading my posts about unchecked trading success, don’t be. This has been a really tough year for many people, especially if you went on overweight into the wrong sectors. Overall, the market is up roughly 1%, hardly a return worth getting excited about. Underneath the hood of that +1%, the divergence is drastic.

Basic Materials: -1.57%
Consumer Goods: -3.1%
Financials +1.9%
Healthcare +10%
Industrials -2.4%
Services +1.5%
Tech +6.5%
Utilities -1.7%

The +1% return I cited above includes ~5,000 stocks. The indices you see everyday have much smaller populations and boast solid returns. The Nasdaq is +15%, S&P +5%, and very weak and fat Dow is up only 1.5%.

Let’s dig even deeper.

Within the top two sectors, healthcare and tech, here are the biggest winners: healthcare plans is +21%, medical instruments and supplies +19%, application software +33%, security software +29%.

Within those two sectors, there are footprints to success that we can follow. I’m trying to show you how I build a profile to detect money flow in Exodus.

Stock with caps above $100b are up 10% in tech for the year. However, as we walk down the spiral staircase of the complicated tech world, we find a sweat spot at $5-10 billion, which sports returns of +23% — more than double the mega cap names.

In healthcare, the story is the same. The smaller the cap the better he return. Stock with caps between $1-5 billion are +30% this year, while the larger capped stocks are up less than 10%. It’s important to note micro caps under $1 billion are not fairing well.

What is the reason for this divergence?

I suspect it has a lot of to with positioning into domestic names that do not have exposure to Trump’s trade war. Also, when excess is abundant, investors love to speculate in small cap.

The one caveat, however, is FANNG. If incline, you can simply ignore everything I just said, hours of research and analysis, and buy Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google. Had you done that in the beginning of 2018, you’d be up a genteel 37% this year.

Fuck my life.

I once built an ark. Now I just shitpost all day, making bags of money.

Before I head out, I wanted to own this piece of shit Chinese stock. I like the MUH chart.

Look at that wonderful knifing lower action. Very beautiful.

Have a great weekend.

Tech is the only sector worthwhile and that’s a fact. It is, quite literally, doing nothing today. It’s rather amusing to see breadth at exactly 50% and the entire complex flat for the session. This is your cue to head out early and go to the beach.

As for sandwiches, I just had some coppa delicately placed between two pieces of very rustic tuscan with a little Dijon added afterwards. Only fucking retards put mayo on sandwiches and morons place the mustard into the sandwich before placing it into the panini press. I know what some of you god damned idiots will say — “dijon has mayo in it’.

Fuck yourself.

If you had to categorize the condiment in either mayo or mustard, what would it be?

Exactly.

Fly wins again.

My portfolio is flat, just like your face. My Quant is higher by 0.12% — because it is diversified, unlike my batshit crazy trading account. Truth of the matter is, I love this shit too much than to relegate all of the fun to my robots.

Do join us for free trials in Exodus, as they are running on a continuous basis. You may only take 1 over a 6 month period. If you join and do not know what to do, email me and I will hop on a webinar with you for a live demo.

Off to the beach.

Ciao.