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Yearly Archives: 2018

Change or Die — MARKET COLLAPSES IN AFTERNOON FUCKERY

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People think I’m crazy because I’m changeable. Yesterday I was threatening to mince bears into cubes and feed them to my dogs. Today I’m a bear. See how that works? The market is bigger than me. I am not JP Morgan circa 1920. Therefore, I must remain malleable to what it shows me.

Right now it is showing me shit. It has shown me shit for the better part of the past 3 weeks. I went on a terrific run and then I churned for the next 15 trades; and here I am — now full circle, 50% cash, long TZA.

Do I believe stocks will crash and continue lower? I honestly don’t think about it that much. Right now I am fixated with becoming a tier 1 chef, an artist of sorts in the kitchen, classically trained by the best Youtubers in the world.

Aside from that, I’m losing money — just like the lot of you.

What the fuck did you think this could last forever?

If you’re stuck and down, sell some stocks. They’re only stocks — not really a big deal. We can buy different stocks next week if the market shows us something.

In Exodus, I am stalking the tech sector and the most down. I’m also waiting for an Exodus oversold signal, which has been accurate in 80% of cases dating back to 2009.

I know, you have you’re own methods and I’m sure they’re retarded. Just know, no matter how much you think you know, no matter how many books you’ve read and seminars attended, you’ll never know more than me.

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FAST GROWING #RIGGED GDP NUMBERS CAN’T SAVE YOU — TIME TO BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES

All of the empirical evidence that I’ve reviewed indicates the market, for lack of a better term, is completely and utterly fucked. I don’t want it to be this way — but it’s just the way it is.

Earlier this morning, under the auspices of my time machine, I sold out of EVBG, BOOT, and FIVN for a break even. I also sold NEW for a 7.8% loss. Chalk up two losses in excess of 7% today, counting the very fat and lazy DECK.

Those sales pushed me over 50% cash and I took some of it to purchase TZA — in order to hedge a little.

My quant portfolio is off by 1% and blood is truly about to run thru the streets like a mad lion chasing down zebra.

Do not be the zebra; protect your necks now else you might find it resting quietly in a nice wicker basket before long.

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Magic Occurred: Slept in Late — Got Ran Over By a Pair of Furry Boots — GDP Sucks

What a miracle. My coyote didn’t snap her teeth at me this morning and I slept in late. This is the first time I slept in late in years. The subsequent result…I got fucked by a pair of furry boots. I sold this DECK shit for an 8.5% loss. This is truly a harrowing experience.

The GDP came in at 4.1%. MEH — not impressed. I thought we were going 5%. Why not 6.8% like the Chinese? Back in the Obama days, people were hardened around the idea that America could never grow more than 2%. What happened? Those people should now literally kill themselves.

I must say, just about everything I own is getting mudstomped. I’m being entreated to clown slaps and I’m glad for it. Now at 30% cash, I can see a path towards my 50% target. This isn’t a market for old men like me. Let the young whipper snappers fall off the side of the boat and into the marina. I’ll be partaking in summer shenanigans.

SAAS stocks are getting killed, in spite of TEAM crushing numbers. I’ll be here with my dog food, FRPT, enjoying the views.

FUCK UGGS AND THEIR STUPID FUCKING BOOTS.

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BITCOINS CRUSHED; PREPARE FOR A MAJOR FUCKING STOCK MELT UP

Listen to me. I literally know more about stocks than you could learn over 10 separate lifetimes.

Stocks are going to forklift, the fuck, higher tomorrow — reducing all of the pathetic bears into sausages to be eaten by my dogs.

GOOD NEWS FOR FREELOADING STOCKFAGS OUT THERE

The victorious algorithms from Exodus are now available, FREE FROM CHARGE, on my new site: FreestockAlgos.com Tell all of you stupid friends and ugly neighbors about it. Let it be a community gift that can spread virally and organically.

After the close today there were several very exciting ejaculations in the market.

For one, Amazon missed and ripped higher by 3%.

More important, TEAM annihilated shorts and sped higher by 15%. This is Queen SAAS and should create a halo effect around the entire sector. I know exactly what stocks I want to buy on this news. Stay tuned.

Here are some other stocks moving higher in the after-hours.

BJRI +12%, EXPE +9.9%, ULH +9.8%, NATI +6.7%, CMG +6.3%, EGHT +6.1%, LRCX +6.1%, ELLI +4.8%, BYD +4.1%, CY +3.9%, CYH +3%, LSCC +2.8%, AUY +2.2%, AFL +1.3%, AMGN +1%

Nasdaq futures are +26, and BTC is -4%. This is exactly what we need to get the animal spirits going again — a sordid blend of chicanery that has laid waste to bears in the past and will always lay waste to them in the future. I am going to make so much money tomorrow, I will be involuntarily punching people in the fucking face.

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COME GET SOME DOG FOOD AND PLACE IT INTO YOUR MOUTHS

This is really a delicious company, selling a wide assortment of mouth watering treats. Freshpet offers animals wonderful food items, like this delectable gigantic sausage made from natural pork casings and cow guts. It’s truly a treat for both pets and owners alike.


Mouth.Watering

Here, take a look at one of our members in Exodus, posing with his array of food products, courtesy of FRPT. How happy does he look?


Pelican Room Member @Remy

My personal favorite is “Dog Joy.” It’s a cross between motor oil and left over chuck stew. Really good.

As for the stock — NOTHING STOPS IT FROM HITTING NEW HIGHS. People like to eat, and so do dogs. For the life of me, I cannot think of a single reason why this shouldn’t trade up tomorrow.

Long FRPT — because dog food isn’t just for dogs anymore.

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Raising Cash — Reshuffling the Chairs on the Deck

Listen to me. I sold FAS and APPF for a 2% and 5% profit. My cash is now 30%. I have a goal to reach 50%, so that I can cavort and sashay near the beach (no homo) for the balance of the summer without a care in the world.

That might sound like the words of a coward, but understand the market isn’t making a lot of sense now. Sure, its going up and that’s great — but it’s chaotic.

Plus, 75% of my investable money is fixed in the Quant strategy and doesn’t change with my emotions. That’ll be rebalanced on the first of every month, adhering to fundamental disciplines that have escaped many of you for a long time.

How about this for using fundies as a guide to long term gains. Using a fundamental screen in Exodus, I profiled what a loser and winner looked like the past year. The losers produced a loss of 31%, the winners +49%. Notice anything striking?

Profile of a winner: PE 25x, earnings growth +28%, P/S 3x, Rev growth 11.9%, FCF $115m, Gross Margins +49%

Profile of a loser: PE: 16x, earnings growth -10%, P/S 1.5x, Rev growth +7%, FCF $163m, Gross margins +41%

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Retail is Back — You’re Either in Or You’re Out

You people are always talking shit about the mall. I’ve been a huge supporter of American retail. Anyone who knows me understands my delicate relationship with shopping malls, being a regular at the King of Prussia mall and other locales that befit Mrs. Fly and her many caprices.

While most fixate on tech and whether Twitter is shadow banning conservatives, the mall is alive and thriving. Hell, aside from the SAAS returns this year, retail is right behind it — sporting +20% YTD gains.

So what stocks to buy? This is simple. Get into Exodus and sort by Sharpe ratio and our technical algorithms and voila. Let me show you the results.

Apparel

Discount/Variety

Department Stores

Specialty/Retail

There are others, like FIVE — which has been on an unbelievable run. But it didn’t pass our minimum grading for our technical algos. If anything, let this post serve as a reminder to keep retail on your radar.

I am presently long BOOT, DECK and M.

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Morning Poppers (Trump Takes On $TWTR Edition)

Morning lads

I just got done walking my coyote and we ran into a pack of deer who were gently grazing on some grass. My coyote almost had an aneurysm and nearly unleashed herself in a fit of unbridled rage. Amusingly, the deer just moved back a little and stared. Those are pretty stupid animals.

The President is taking on @Jack and Twitter this morning for shadow banning republican voices. It’s an interesting subject to tackle, especially since it’s well know that Twitter censors whoever they want, whenever they want to. It’s interesting because — what does Trump think he can do about it? Publicly shame them into submission?

Shares of TWTR are down 3% in the pre-market.

Today is all about FB, however, and how they’re going by the way of Myspace. It’s over fellas — pack up your bags — the company is finished. Meanwhile, the stock is still up from a few month’s ago, even after this 20% “dip.”

Nasdaq futures are -100, mostly FB related.

Here are this morning’s movers.

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
:
  • BPI +18.7%, AAN +9.6%, XLNX +9.5%, UAA +9%, BEAT +7.8%, AMD +6.4%, BTI +5.9%, GNC +5.9%, DDE +4.8%, CTXS +4.4%, IIN +4.1%, MDLZ +3.9%, AQ +3.7%, DHI +3.7%, VLY +3.7%, APD +3.3%, CMCSA +3.3%, AXTI +3.2%, DDR +3.2%, TEF +3.2%, SU +3%, SNN +3%, VAR +2.9%, ALLY +2.9%, SPB +2.8%, ALXN +2.6%, MPLX +2.5%, WPG +2.2%, IVZ +2.2%, RS +2.2%, AZN +2%, AGN +2%, BWA+2%, YNDX +2%, LM +1.8%, MLM +1.8%, CX +1.6%, KRA +1.5%, ARR +1.5%, TSCO +1.5%, IP +1.3%, GLOP +1.2%, SXCP +1.2%, CUBI +1.1%, FTI +1.1%, RTN +1%, SFS +0.9%, CELG +0.9%, ICLR +0.8%, BMY +0.8%, PAG +0.8%, MCD +0.8%

M&A news:

  • SVU +63.8% (to be acquired by United Natural Foods (UNFI) for $32.50 per share in cash, or approximately $2.9 billion)
  • ARNC +10.1% (WSJ report suggests PE interest)
  • QCOM +6% (NXP Semi proposed acquisition by Qualcomm (QCOM) officially terminated) .

Other news:

  • BCEI +4.5% (Bonanza Creek Energy will replace Capella Education in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the open on Wednesday, August 1)
  • MPLX +2.5% (increases quarterly dividend)
  • WSC +2.1% (prices upsized common stock offering of 8 mln shares of common stock at $16.00/share)
  • ATNX +1.4% (Phase 3 studies, KX-AK-003 and KX-AK-004, achieve primary endpoints)

Analyst comments:

  • CDTX +2.4% (initiated with a Buy at Citigroup)

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
:

  • FB -20.2%, NLSN -16.5%, KNX -13.3%, MHK -11.7%, NGD -10.5%, TPX -10%, TAL -8.9%, CCJ -7.5%, NXPI -7.4%, TSEM -7.3%, NOK -6.9%, MAT -6.4% (also announces reduction of over 2,200 positions, representing 22% of global non-manufacturing workforce, as well as planned sale of manufacturing sites in Mexico), ALGT -5.9%, ABMD -5%, QEP -4.8%, IMAX -4.8%, PYPL -4%, NVCR-3.9%, F -3.8%, SPOT -3.8%, ALK -3.7%, RDS.B -3.6%, SNBR -3.5%, KEX -3.2%, RDS.A -3.1%, STAY -3%, FFIV -3% (also initiates implementation of restructuring program — includes reduction in force program affecting approximately 230 employees), CDE -2.9%, MO -2.9%, AEM -2.6%, GGG -2.6%, SB -2.6%, ABX -2.5%, PHM -2.3%, GILD -2.2% (also CEO stepping down), EFX -2.1%, ARD-2.1%, DEO -2%, VAC -2%, ALGN -1.9%, PX -1.7%, HP -1.6%, KS -1.6%, GG -1.6%, CME -1.5%, MPWR -1.4%, EME -1.4%, RJF -1.3%, PRLB -1.3%, BANR -1.2% (also to acquire Skagit Bancorp in immediately accretive transaction), DNKN -1.2%, LKQ -1.2%, CCMP -1%, TRN -1%, LAZ -1%, FOE -0.8%, ROIC -0.7%, FARO -0.7%, BAX -0.7%, AAL -0.7%, .

M&A news:

  • NXPI -7.4% (NXP Semi proposed acquisition by Qualcomm (QCOM) officially terminated)
  • UNFI -7.4% (SVU to be acquired by UNFI for $32.50 per share in cash, or approximately $2.9 billion) .

Select FB/Tech related names showing weakness:

  • CLDR -4.2%, TWTR -3.6%, SNAP -3%, TWLO -1.9%, BOX -1.9%, QQQ -1.4%, GOOGL -1.3%, AMZN -1.3%, ZUO -1.2%, DBX -1%

Other news:

  • BIIB -10.1% (Biogen & Eisai (ESALY) Announce Detailed Results Of Phase II Clinical Study Of BAN2401 In Early Alzheimer’s Disease — BAN2401 demonstrated a dose-dependent reduction in amyloid plaques as measured by amyloid PET )
  • TAL -9.4% (lower after Muddy Waters releases another cautious report and ahead of earnings tomorrow)
  • NBRV -9.1% (commences $50 mln common stock offering)
  • SVRA -6.8% (provides an update on the clinical development and commercial preparatory efforts for its lead product candidate Molgradex; proposed public offering of common stock; size not disclosed)
  • VCYT -6.5% (prices offering of 5 mln shares of common stock at $10.25 per share)
  • FND -4.5% (following MHK results),
  • X -3.8% (President Trump & EU Commission President Junker press conference)
  • AKS -3.4% (President Trump & EU Commission President Junker press conference)
  • TTD -3.4% (following MHK results)
  • EYPT -3.3% (presents ‘positive’ twelve month efficacy and safety data supporting the Company’s YUTIQ 0.18 mg three-year micro-insert for noninfectious posterior segment uveitis; files for approx 49.46 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders)
  • SRPT -3.3% (notified by the Research Institute at Nationwide Children’s Hospital that they received a clinical hold letter from the FDA)
  • EYE -2.3% (prices secondary offering of 14,447,698 shares of common stock at $39.75 per share)
  • GSK -1.7% (reports negative outcome of the FDA Advisory Committee on mepolizumab for the treatment of COPD patients on maximum inhaled therapy)
  • BE -1.4% (after IPO closed nearly 70% higher on the day)
  • ACIU -1.3% (presents Phase 2 data analysis from ABBY and BLAZE trials for crenezumab at AAIC; says data provides “strong evidence” for engagement of the principle Abeta target)
  • WPZ -1.3% (Williams Partners and Crestwood announce major expansion of the Jackalope Gas Gathering System and associated Bucking Horse gas processing facility in the Powder River Basin)
  • MMSI -0.9% (prices 3.5 mln share offering at $54.00/share )

Analyst comments:

  • HMNY -7.5% (downgraded/assumed to Hold at Maxim Group)
  • DDD -4.5% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray)
  • ELF -2.3% (downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer)
  • GILD -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird)
  • SKX -1.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus)

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Nasdaq Futures Plunge After $FB Miss; Corporate Fascism Continues to Gain Momentum

Facebook is down more than 20% in the after-hours, following an atrocious earnings miss. I will not attempt to analyze the numbers or make predictions on the stock, since that feckless narrative has proven to be a waste of time. How many times have people declared NFLX, GOOGL, AAPL, and TSLA dead over the past 5 years?

Stop making predictions.

That said, you should know Nasdaq futures are down a harrowing 1.6%, while the Dow is slightly higher. We will have a split market tomorrow, juxtaposed between techFAGS and real economy brick and mortar. I suspect my retail stocks will fair well, while some of my SAAS related names will trade off. Reason being, FB is a major holding for a lot of funds. Said funds will be liquidating tomorrow and lowering their risk profiles, which might mean a broad sell off in a number of names. Bear in mind, the market is based on fundamentals, but the short term swings are largely psychological.

Speaking of which, I found this interview interesting, between Entertainment Weekly and a Facebook executive, addressing the ‘fake news’ scourge. It seems corporate fascism is gaining momentum and even though Zuckerberg has pushed back against government shills who want complete censorship, I suspect resistance is futile. They will have their way, one way of another.

Facebook executives promoting their video-on-demand service got into a combative exchange with reporters while at the Television Critics Association’s press tour in Beverly Hills on Wednesday. The issue: the presence of right-wing conspiracy site Infowars and Fox News on the social network’s platform.

The kerfuffle started when Fidji Simo, Facebook’s vice president of video, was asked about Infowars stories on their platform while touting new Facebook Watch entertainment shows.

“To be totally transparent, I find Infowars to be absolutely atrocious,” Simo replied. “That being said, we have the hard job of balancing freedom of expression and safety. So the way we navigate that is we think there’s a pretty big difference between what is allowed on Facebook and what gets distribution. So what we’re trying to do is make it so that if you are saying something that’s untrue on Facebook — you’re allowed to say it as long as you’re an authentic person and you adhere to our community standards — but we’re trying to make it so it doesn’t get that much distribution .… We don’t always get it right, as you can imagine, it’s very complicated, but that’s sort of our principle for dealing with information.”

Reporter: How do you limit distribution?

“When we have something that we think — that a fact checker has told is probably not true, or a lot of our audience is telling us is not true, we just limit distribution. We tell our algorithms that this is probably not something we want to see distributed widely. So that’s one way. Another way, a lot of how misinformation spreads, is by people sharing the content.… We actually pop up a module that says, ‘Hey you’re about to share something our fact checker thinks is inaccurate, you may not want to do that.’ That decreases distribution very dramatically, north of 80 percent, that’s very effective at reducing the spread of it.”

Reporter: One of the most prominent organizations you’re working with is Fox News, and they’re sort of incorrigible about proliferating a lot of misinformation. Can you speak to your reasoning behind that? Why would you want to work with an organization like that when, as you said, you’re trying to limit the spread of false information?

At this, Rick Van Veen, head of global creative strategy at Facebook, jumped in: “Yeah, well, given that we have limited time. I’d like to keep it — Fidji and I don’t lead the news organization. Campbell Brown leads that…”

Another reporter in the background: Answer the question!

“We have limited time —”

Another reporter: We’ll give you time!

Simo: “We have a range of new shows we’re presenting —”

Reporter: But Fox News is still on every day, including the weekends on this programming list.

Simo: “So is CNN —”

This was met by some chortles in the crowd, presumably because they don’t think CNN and Fox News are remotely compatible when it comes to accuracy.

Simo: “We are really trying to show a range of programming that shows the range of the political spectrum.”

I think it’s all wonderful. Chinese styled propaganda and information control might be nice. Think about it. No more flat- earth retards or people annoying you with conspiracy theories. Moon hoax-homosexuals.

Personally, I like to drown myself inside leather-bounded classics, and have found peace in ignoring the news. I come here and shitpost to my black heart’s delight, bank some coin in stocks, run my software business, and visit the beach whenever I can — drinking gimlets every step of the way.

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