Trump Said Crazy Stuff Today; Stocks Trade Higher

Ok, let’s go thru today’s list of crazy shit the President said, just to get it out of the way.

We can fight a trade war with China now because ‘We’re playing with the bank’s money’.

Trump: ‘We’re playing with the bank’s money’ on market’s gain since election to fight trade war from CNBC.

He’s taking aim at the Fed. How dare he!

China, the European Union and others have been manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower, while the U.S. is raising rates while the dollars gets stronger and stronger with each passing day – taking away our big competitive edge. As usual, not a level playing field…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 20, 2018

….The United States should not be penalized because we are doing so well. Tightening now hurts all that we have done. The U.S. should be allowed to recapture what was lost due to illegal currency manipulation and BAD Trade Deals. Debt coming due & we are raising rates – Really?

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 20, 2018

Trump says he’s ready to ‘go to 500’, referring to maximum tariffs on all Chinese goods coming into the US, in order to teach them what they need to be told.

Trump weighs in on the trade war with China from CNBC.

On this news, the dollar is getting claw hammered by 0.6% v the euro — because it implies Trump’s pressure on the Fed might translate into an easier Fed. And, that is having a positive effect on stocks. The Nasdaq is +!5.

See how fucking pointless this all is?

Buy stocks.

Matt Drudge headlined Musk this evening, capping off a multi-pronged effort to dethrone King of Tesla. I find it all rather amusing how every Tesla car accident makes front page news and how Musk’s sanity is called into question all the time, mostly by zealots and short sellers.

Granted, his genius has given license to a wide array of eccentricities. Still, the people who are attacking him, mostly, are lamentable sub-human creatures, underserving of attention, but he gives it to them nonetheless. I cannot fathom why he does; then again, I’ve never had the mental capacity to build a fucking space rocket either. He’s wired much differently than 99.9% of humans.

Cut through the smoke and these are the facts about Musk and Tesla.

In 2010, sales were ~$30m per quarter. Now sales are $3.4b per quarter.

The stock is up 10x since then and higher by 7% over the past 6 months, 200bps better than the SPY.

With a market cap of $51b, I find it incredibly humorous to even imply that Tesla is in financial trouble. The fucking company can raise $5b tomorrow in a mildly dilutive secondary, and not even break a sweat. Why, the stock would probably trade higher on the news.

Nevertheless, here’s the entertainment, courtesy of the internet and the NY Post.

• Musk’s calling in a request to Sierra Club executive director Michael Brune to make public the $6 million-plus in previously anonymous donations that Musk made to the environmental group.
• His purpose, as reported by Bloomberg, was to deflect flak for donating $38,900 to a pro-Republican PAC last quarter.
  Musk got around to apologizing to the “pedo guy” on Wednesday, acknowledging the rescuer’s criticism of the mini-submarine Musk sent to assist in the soccer team’s rescue does “not justify my actions against him.”
  Musk’s sincerity was suspect, however, as the “pedo guy” had already threatened to sue.
• Musk’s 22.2 million Twitter followers give the entrepreneur a bully pulpit that he ill-advisedly used this month to dress down a blog writer Linette Lopez.
  On July 5, he tweeted, “@lopezlinette has published several false articles about Tesla, including a doozy where she claimed Tesla scrapped more batteries than our total S,X &3 production number, which is physically impossible.”
  He also accused the Business Insider writer of being motivated by short-seller Jim Chanos, whom Musk called “Tesla’s most prominent short-seller.”
  “Her articles print Chanos’ view verbatim,” he added. “This is not journalism.”
• Musk doesn’t limit his wrath to individual journalists, which is why on May 23 he said he’d take on the entire industry by developing a fake news/honest journalism scorecard.
  “Going to create a site where the public can rate the core truth of any article & track the credibility score over time of each journalist, editor & publication,” he tweeted. “Thinking of calling it Pravda…”
  “The holier-than-thou hypocrisy of big media companies who lay claim to the truth, but publish only enough to sugarcoat the lie, is why the public no longer respects them,” he continued.
• Many believe the cloud over Musk’s head took shape during a May 2 analyst earnings call.
  “Boring, bonehead questions are not cool,” he said in response to a question about Tesla’s projected capital expenditures. “These questions are so dry. They’re killing me.”

While markets might look somber today, Le Fly continues to win. How, pray tell?

My Quant portfolio is higher by a whopping 64bps, 90bps better than the indices. I kick people in the heads for a living.

Anyone can partake. My strategies are open to the public and are updated once per month. If you have money in the market and retain the services of a “financial advisor” in 2018, you are a complete idiot. Do yourselves a favor and fire your broker and take control of your money. They suck.

In my trading account, I’m heavily long retail now: M, BOOT, SFIX, and DECK. Other positions that are notably strong today include APPF, SRAX, EVBG, and VNET.

Into the bell, I am 20% cash, 100% win.

Since my last post, my powers within the retail sector have increased. Thanks to my new status as boss of all shopping malls, some of my competitors are salty AF.

Go away.

— Jeff Macke (@JeffMacke) July 19, 2018

Nevertheless, I beat on — boats against the current.

To conclude my retail exposure, I stepped in and bought SFIX. This is the tech portion of the play, very nice and thin — believe me.

Feels good to supplant @JeffMacke as foremost expert on Twitter retail. You should expect me to take photos of underwear racks and naked mannequins in the coming days to discuss my take on the awesome state of American retail.

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) July 19, 2018

Feeling good and positive, in spite of the indices dour and somber look, I upped my retail exposure and bought some BOOT and DECK.

I’m an expert in retail now, an authority on all things to do with spending money inside shopping malls.

Mostly everything is dead, sans retail. It’s possible that I am top ticking here, which is part and parcel of trying to chase momentum. But given the apparent resurgence in the sector, I am willing to gamble there will be some follow thru on this leg higher.

If not, stops will be tight, roughly 5-10% below basis.

Death to Sears; Death to JC Penney — long live Macy’s.

Every Macy’s I’ve ever been to, with exception to the giant one in NYC, was a heaping pile of shit. I much prefer Nordstrom’s or Saks — but I digress. Normal people, especially the poor, love Macy’s. They bring their small children there, with their happy little lives, and buy garments with fanciful names on them — logos and socks. They always buy lots of “designer” socks.

All that being said, M is breaking out now, as markets Mcplunge lower. You’d be wise to take a good look at M — especially since the summer months are a good occasion to be long retail.

Fun fact: Macy’s has booked its first back to back YOY quarterly revenue growth numbers since 2013.

Retail is back, apparently.

Any of you familiar with Buridian’s Ass paradox? It describes a donkey in between some food and water, unable to choose, dying due to thirst and famine. Many of you fribble away at the market in the same manner — making an ass out of oneself, unable to choose between right and wrong, between good and evil.

“The Fly” is the exact opposite, always and eternally filled with a cornucopia of ideas, based and steeped in the richest of morals — both hazardous and adventurous simultaneously. I readily slap people in the faces with the hottest slices of pizza, for betting against me and losing. While on many occasions, I flip coins at the homeless, because I am both generous and warm hearted — wholly interested in the betterment of mankind.

I come to you now with estimable honor to tell you that I won again. I know, this repetitiveness can get a bit boorish, and jealously gets us nowhere; but it’s true and I think it’s important that you know it — in order to pass these tales onto future generations — describing a man who once lived on the internets who always won, slayed markets at will, and he did it for the people.

After all, I am but a river to my people — a clean source of nourishment that quenches the thirst of millions of donkeys in need of sustenance. Without me, countless people, and families alike, would perish from indecision, abject poverty and a whirring and dizzying panorama of failure that would inflict trauma upon future generations. In a sense, “The Fly” is a financial super hero in great need of a cape — sashaying to and fro — saving those in need to financial guidance.

I am ~40% cash eager to buy dips. See you in Exodus.

It must be incredibly frustrating for bears who are positioning for political uncertainty. Traditionally, the shit that’s taking place now, scandal after scandal and trade wars, would produce a toxic environment for stocks. You know it and I know it.

I used to say the Fed was keeping markets afloat with their tricky ways; but not anymore. They’re out of the way, even being dicks by jacking up interest rates whenever they get itchy.

So why are markets higher? What the fuck is going on?

Well, this recovery was planted in the ground before Trump got into office. The very evil Obama is the one who presided over the recovery and corporate profits were heading higher. When Trump got into office, he sort of stumbled upon a great happening and then super charged it with some regulation and tax cuts. The market isn’t being run by nice charts and technical breakouts, like some of your more inane market ‘experts’ might have you believe. It is being fueled by corporate profits — even in the retailers.

Because earnings and free cash flow are up, so are stocks. And because of that very fact, a certain Donald J. Trump is safe from the gallows and all of the people who want to see him there. If markets crash and become miserable for big business, he’s a goner.

Even more incredulous — if markets are up in 2020 and he runs again, in spite of the frenzy in the media and blue check marks on Twitter, he’ll get reelected and torment half the country for another 4 years of shit-posting.

Prove me wrong. Trades in Exodus are emailed and texted in real time. This is winship delivered to you daily, with the occasional XIV black swan event.

Introducing RP, my latest pick. Unstoppable.

Today’s purchases include VNET, FAS, and RP. Holding ~40% cash. I’ll chill for a few hours — maybe nibble on something before the bell.

I gorilla glued a triple upside bankster ETF to my portfolio, looking for a breakout above $70 and open field running with no socks — clear to $80.

When it happens, you’ll be crying in your shower for missing out, believe me.