Markets played themselves today, gapping higher, then lower, then higher again. This is the sordid brand of churn that kills portfolios — makes people think all is lost. Don’t let the nihilism take hold of you and try to remember that as grim and dire as things seem to be, as the horrible horribles pile up and the losses accumulate, America is becoming great again and jobs are being created on a daily basis. Taxes are being cut, and Fox News ratings…through the roof.
A great Orange Gorilla presides over you, helping you become a better person — richer, better looking, with Jedi-like powers.
I sold out of my RAS position for a 30% win, while losing my balls in MYSZ — thanks to an impromptu secondary offering. Moreover, I made a slew of gains in gold stocks, and held tight with my XIV position — up 6 from my basis.
Listen to me. Nothing has changed but the date on the calendar. Janet “fucker” Yellen is gone, corporate earnings are being guided the fuck up, and rates are still incredibly low.
Nothing says panic like historically low interest rates. To think that people are being subjected to 30yr mortgage rates of 4.40% is somewhat harrowing. Could you imagine being on the receiving end of such a con?
Here is a 10yr chart of the 10yr treasury. Clearly you can see there is nothing unusual about the yield. Sure, it’s going up a bit. But, what the fuck did you expect with the Fed hiking rates? Did you think rates would stay at 2% forever?
How about the spreads? What of the spreads? The 2-10 spread is 60bps. This isn’t a very large spread, but it isn’t small or flat, or fucking inverted — so relax.
What of the banks? Well, what about them? If there is a sector that would be panicked by rates that were too high, it would be the banks.
Thus far, they’ve done splendidly. JPM is +8.8%, BAC +9.2%, and WFC +8.4% — all beating the S&P 500.
Everyone was expecting a 1,000 point rally after the SOTU, not because the President’s speech was fantastic, but because you’re all a bunch of spoiled faggots. This is exactly the type of tape you want, one that fucks with the mind — gives bears a false sense of security, and then BAM: off with their heads.
At the vanguard of today’s bounce is tech and gold. Can you have a more fucked up blend of leadership? I think not. Let them keep looking at bonds, getting scared of 4.40% 30 yr mortgages, placing hazardous bets against equities. At the end of the day, we will walk away with their heads in a duffle bag.
This being the last day of month 1 Exodus Quant portfolio, I’ll tell you what I own. The stocks aren’t anything special — just what the system said was worthwhile — following the money — and it was correct.
FB, AAPL, MSFT, V, XOM, and GLD.
The net result was ~5.5%, in line with the SPY, an annualized rate of return of 66%. Fucking nuts.
It looks like we’ll get some green early going. Dow futures are +90 and XIV is printing $127 in the pre market. Crude is off again, down 0.65% — but copper and gold are slightly higher. Over in nerdville, Bitcoin is at $10,300 and Ethereum is $1,100 — both weak, but plodding along.
I don’t have much conviction, other than to suggest even dead cat’s bounce when tossed off high perches — so maybe we’ll get a little reprieve from the dastard plundering. This being the last day of the month, I will be posting my returns for my quantitative portfolio and making adjustments tomorrow morning, as I am scheduled to do so once per month for all of 2018.
Here’s what’s hitting the wires now.
Automatic Data beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides FY18 EPS above consensus, increases lower bound of rev guidance
Tupperware beats by $0.09, misses on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus; guides FY18 EPS in-line
Silicon Labs beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs above consensus
Overstock.com announces the launch of a digitally-driven investment platform (otherwise known as robo-advising)
NASDAQ beats by $0.05, beats on revs
Illumina upgraded to Overweight at First Analysis Sec post earnings; tgt $277
U.S. Bancorp downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan
DPW Holdings subsidiary, Super Crypto Mining to launch cloud mining
McDonald’s target raised to $190 from $180 at Telsey Advisory Group
I really tried to get back into MAGA mode for this speech, attempting to conjure up some latent nationalism that was running hot during the 2016 elections. Sadly, I failed.
All throughout the speech, I kept saying to my wife ‘wouldn’t it be great if the whole place blew up?’ I could see the flames rummaging throughout the chamber, cleaning out the room of all the miserable people harrowing the country. But then I got to think about some of the innocents in there and the devils who’d likely fill the power void and felt a great shame for thinking such horrible things.
I know the answer to the issues facing our country and this is it: fuck them.
It’s best to simply ignore the nonsense, position for personal success, make a fuck load of money, drink and spend ruinously until we’re buried 6 feet deep.
Futures are spiking tonight, +85 on the Dow and +28 Nasdaqs. WTI is lower by 0.9%. This is a tepid response post -400 decline. However, we can build from here and hopefully crucify the people who dare stand in our way.
The true story tonight isn’t the shit-filled, canned SOTU speech, but instead the fucking fuckery taking place in the crypto currencies.
Earlier this morning the SEC announced it had seized the assets of a company scheming to launch the largest ICO in history. Tonight the ramifications of regulatory action is hurting the 5 year olds who trade in and out of these idiotic instruments. To that end, I will continue to buy this asset class each and every month for a year, not because they’re fundamentally sound, but because I am interested to see how it goes.
In short, futures are mildly higher. Trump is autistic. The democrats can go fuck themselves, and everyone else in that chamber this evening.
I am +5 on my XIV purchase from this morning. I am expecting the Orange Gorilla will pull a junta tonight, arresting members of congress on live teevee as he reads the newly disclosed memo.
Rumor has it, Trump will not release the contents of his State of the Union speech tonight, instead opting for a pleasant and raping surprise. This would be the first time in 55 years a President has pulled such a stunt. I know you grow weary of change, but sometimes it’s interesting, as well as funny.
I have all of the confidence in the world that today’s misery will lead to tomorrow’s ebullience. As such, I am riding into the close long equities, positioned keenly on XIV — eagerly awaiting The Orange God to smite his enemies and paint DC red.
What’s amusing about all of this is the sell off is also affecting crypto currencies. Bitcoin and the gang are fucking knifing (Qaaa-nifing) lower.
BTC is on the verge of full collapse under $10,000 and there is nothing that you or your stupid friends can do about it. While many of you might surmise this to be something of an albatross for yours truly, especially since I’ve been delving into the black arts of SHITCOIN trading. Truth is, I have deployed a Martingale Stratagem and benefit, explicitly, from the terminable collapse of the asset class. When it trades lower, I simply buy more — rinse and repeat, furthermore.
We want stocks lower. We want them to hurt, break the bones of weak minded financial advisors. We are living during a time and a place when advisors with IQs less than 50 are managing hundreds of millions. Their sociopathic tendencies, coupled with the evergreen qualities of the market, have provided them with a comfortable living. We will strip them of this luxury and cast them out into the cold (extra Bane). When all of the accoutrements of decorum have been annihilated from the market, then and only then will the field be cleaned of their indecorous calamity.
Stocks are comfortably in the red, off by a solid 350 and staging for another leg lower. In spite of all of this, my purchase of XIV is solidly in the black — as it was timed with both grace and alacrity. The State of the Union is upon you gentlemen. Your SHITCOINS have been disbanded and discarded. Your Nasdaqiris have been drunk, glasses shattered across the pavement.
My quantitative methods are due for update tomorrow. The +5.2% showing it accomplished in January is as impressive as it is excessive. We can only hope for lower prices, lads. Let us pray.
I stepped in and bought XIV a little bit below these levels this morning, as reported in Exodus. So you know, I am buying this for my great, great, grandchildren. They will certainly appreciate today’s purchase when my estate is divvied up and they spend my money recklessly on stupid shit.
We all want risk aversion tactics when stocks are trading lower — but you do not have to be reactionary to the blackness of an opening plunge lower. Do yourselves a favor pal and go stuff your fat face with a meated sandwich. You missed the inflection point — but now the Dow is 400 points lower from two days ago and now you risk being wrong again. Judging by recent history, UVXY will flag overbought today in Exodus and the entire system might move into oversold territory. This could very well be one of those shallow dips that you’ll end up kicking yourself in the head for missing.
Or we might trade lower and die.
What do you think is the most likely scenario?
With my money, I am disappointed that oil is dropping like this, but pleased with gold. I am going to chill out for a bit, listen to some Max Richter, and make myself the blackest coffee the world has ever seen. Then I will revisit the tape and make some judgements and position for late afternoon.
We bounce. You know we fucking bounce. Who are you kidding?
This is pretty big news for the god forsaken healthcare industry, a vacuous and evil industry who thinks they can get away with charging normies $1700 per month for family health insurance. They should, quite seriously, fuck their own faces.
Amazon, Berkshire, and JP Morgan are uniting to form their own healthcare companies, for their employees — which sets a wonderful precedent away from the legacy providers who’ve been fucking stealing from Americans for decades.
CNBC:
Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, and JPMorgan Chase on Tuesday announced plans to partner on ways to cut health-care costs and improve services for their U.S. employees. The announcement slammed the shares of multiple companies in the health-care sector.
Together, the three companies employ more than 1.1 million workers.
The three massive companies will launch an independent outfit initially targeting technology solutions, with the intention to be an umbrella firm that would be “free from profit-making incentives.”
Details of the new company were sketchy, with principles of each firm noting that the way it will work remains to be seen. They’re hoping that the sheer size of each firm will help bring the necessary scale and resources to tackle the issue.
“The ballooning costs of healthcare act as a hungry tapeworm on the American economy,” Berkshire CEO Warren Buffett said in a statement. “Our group does not come to this problem with answers. But we also do not accept it as inevitable. Rather, we share the belief that putting our collective resources behind the country’s best talent can, in time, check the rise in health costs while concurrently enhancing patient satisfaction and outcomes.”
Three top executives, one from each company, will take the lead on the project: Investment officer Todd Combs at Berkshire, Marvelle Sullivan Berchtold at JPMorgan, and Beth Galetti, a senior vice president at Amazon.
The new company’s goal at first will be to target technology solutions to simplify the health-care system.
“I think it is good news,” Allergan CEO Brent Saunders told CNBC. “The healthcare delivery system is antiquated and in dire need of positive disruption. My hope is these three companies light the spark!”
Adam Fein, president of Pembroke Consulting, said it’s “long past time” for employers like these three to force innovation into the health-care system.
“For better or worse, there are warped incentives baked into every aspect of the U.S. healthcare system, from medical innovation to care delivery to insurance and benefit management,” Fein told CNBC. “Rather than merely bashing the current system, I hope this new organization can help patients and their physicians make more informed and more cost-effective decisions. Technology will be necessary but not sufficient to make positive changes.”
Analysts echoed the sentiment that the health-care system is outdated and ripe for disruption, paving the way for the new endeavor. However, they cautioned it could take time.
“If this winds up being the low cost provider to make insurance more affordable at employer level, could wind up being a real disruptive competitor to an industry that has not seen any new players in years/decades,” Jefferies analyst Jared Holz told CNBC. “Not going to call this black swan event yet because there are few details and would be making too many assumptions but it has potential to be.”
Leerink Partners’ Ana Gupte said the comments suggest the leaders view the endeavor as one that’s “complex, challenging and thorny and that will take time to bear fruit.”
Shares of each company were little changed in premarket trading.
I applaud this effort and hope other corporations follow suit.
Aetna (AET) is down 3.0% in pre-market trading; UnitedHealth (UNH) is down 6.8%; Cigna (CI) is down 5.3%; Anthem (ANTM) is down 7.0%; Humana (HUM) is down 4.9%; CVS Health (CVS) is down 5.8%; Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) is down 3.7%; Merck (MRK) is down 1.0%; and Pfizer (PFE) is down 1.6%.
