Morning Poppers (The President Hates Amazon Edition)

What the fuck is wrong with Kim Jong Un? Doesn’t he know the second he gives away his nukes is the second US Blackhawk helicopters fly into his capitol city to take him out? Apparently, he’s willing to negotiate the destruction of his nukes, only after both S. Korea and America give him some shit. I’m guessing this is more 3-d chess by the N. Korean leader.

“It is our consistent stand to be committed to denuclearisation on the peninsula, in accordance with the will of late President Kim Il Sung and late General Secretary Kim Jong Il,” Kim Jong Un said, according to Xinhua.

North Korea is willing to talk with the United States and hold a summit between the two countries, he said.

“The issue of denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula can be resolved, if South Korea and the United States respond to our efforts with goodwill, create an atmosphere of peace and stability while taking progressive and synchronous measures for the realization of peace,” Kim said.

In other news, our President reportedly “hates” Amazon; but I’m sure you’ll think that’s more fake news.

Via Axios:

Capitol Hill wants Facebook’s blood, but President Trump isn’t interested. Instead, the tech behemoth Trump wants to go after is Amazon, according to five sources who’ve discussed it with him. “He’s obsessed with Amazon,” a source said. “Obsessed.”

What we’re hearing: Trump has talked about changing Amazon’s tax treatment because he’s worried about mom-and-pop retailers being put out of business.

A source who’s spoken to POTUS: “He’s wondered aloud if there may be any way to go after Amazon with antitrust or competition law.”

Trump’s deep-seated antipathy toward Amazon surfaces when discussing tax policy and antitrust cases. The president would love to clip CEO Jeff Bezos’ wings. But he doesn’t have a plan to make that happen.

Behind the president’s thinking: Trump’s wealthy friends tell him Amazon is destroying their businesses. His real estate buddies tell him — and he agrees — that Amazon is killing shopping malls and brick-and-mortar retailers.

Trump tells people Amazon has gotten a free ride from taxpayers and cushy treatment from the U.S. Postal Service.
“The whole post office thing, that’s very much a perception he has,” another source said. “It’s been explained to him in multiple meetings that his perception is inaccurate and that the post office actually makes a ton of money from Amazon.”

Axios’ Ina Fried notes: The Postal Service actually added delivery on Sunday in some cities because Amazon made it worthwhile.

Trump also pays close attention to the Amazon founder’s ownership of The Washington Post, which the president views as Bezos’ political weapon.

Very nice. I’m so glad I voted for him.

Dow futures are +100 and the Nasdaq is flat. You could tell the market is gonna tank. It just has that tankish feel to it. Both gold and WTI are off by 0.7%.

Here are some other headlines.

I can’t remember the last time the FAANG (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) basket fell by 10% in any time frame; but here were are now, off by nearly 10% and people are freaking out.

We’re looking at a two week time frame here, a period that presided over the destruction in many high profile names.

Here are some other stocks that took major L’s in the past two weeks.

TWTR -23%
SOHU -14%
BIDU -11%
NTES -11%
ORCL -13%
MU -12.4%
AMD -12.2%
CRM -11.3%
SNAP -10%
DB -10.5%
WFC -10%
OSTK -22%
CENX -21%
OLED -16%
MELI -13%
NVDA -9.4%
SHOP -12%
TEAM -10%
X -12.3%
GIS -12.7%
W -21%

The list goes on and on. It has been a blood bath. Overall, the SPY is off by 5.6%, Nasdaq -7.6%, while utilities were flat, gold +1.4% and TLT +0.6%.

The leadership of the market has been damaged. The high risk assets torn to shreds, leaving only whispers of encouragement for traders to cling onto. Most, including myself, are only long because buying dips has been a winning strategy. Plus, Exodus has a pretty good track record of timing bottoms.

Question of the night is: is this time different?

ADDED BONUS: Cryptos are crashing. BTC is $7,800, ETH $449, and LTC $136 -10%.

Big Brother is peering over your shoulder and is one day going to toss you into a cold, damp, cell for saying the word “motherfucker.”

Here’s Microsoft, in the latest salvo of big tech testing the totalitarian waters, banning foul language for already degenerate gamers. GOOD LUCK with that.

“Don’t publicly display or use the Services to share inappropriate content or material (involving, for example, nudity, bestiality, pornography, offensive language, graphic violence, or criminal activity).”

“In the Code of Conduct section, we’ve clarified that use of offensive language and fraudulent activity is prohibited.”

What’s also noteworthy is a little disclosure on the bottom which said they “reserve(s) the right to review Your Content” when it’s “investigating alleged violations of these Terms.”

HAHAHAHA.

MSFT is getting Donkey Punched, but not because Hitler is running the company, but because the Nasdaq is getting fucking destroyed.

The violence of this downturn has just about negated all tech gains enjoyed during yesterday’s record session. This is the reason why I chose SPY for quantitative buys over QQQ.

Bonds have become a safe haven once again, and rates are dropping.

There is nothing particularly remarkable about today’s decline, other than the suddenness of it. First it started with some semis and some oils. The Dow diverged and kept gains. Now both Dow and Nasdaq are sharply lower and people can’t stop talking about NVDA.

NOTEWORTHY: My ‘Bubble Basket’ consisting of traditionally expensive stocks is off by 4% to new YTD lows. And, my social networking index is getting spear’d — thanks to the heart attack drop in TWTR.

Utes and REITs are bucking the trend, typical of a risk off tape. My sense, people have the jitters over the crackdown in tech and have tossed in the towel. This too shall pass. I am still boolish on this move and will hold my positions until nearly next week.

Shares of NVDA are sliding after confirming that Uber fucked up one of their product lines.

Nvidia Corp said on Tuesday it will suspend self-driving tests across the globe after Uber Technologies Inc fatality last week, according to a source at the GPU conference in San Jose, California.

The chipmaker is testing self-driving technology globally including in New Jersey, Santa Clara, Japan and Germany.

Last week, Uber suspended North American tests of its self-driving vehicles after one of its self-driving cars killed a woman in Arizona.

Update: Nvidia tells CNBC that it is "temporarily suspending the testing of [its] self-driving cars on public roads to learn from the Uber incident" https://t.co/6EUbCjII3f pic.twitter.com/QJdAN3ylBz

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) March 27, 2018

Self driving cars will happen, so this is merely a pit stop.

On the whole, however, tech stocks are sucking wind. Also, shares of TSLA are getting bitch slapped again, now off by 16% over the past month. Who’s buying?

Here are some noteworthy losers in tech: OSTK, ADBE, TSLA, NVDA, NOW, FB, NFLX, AMD, and of course TWTR.

Chinacoms are pulling in too, led by NTES, WB, YY, VIPS, and HTHT.

The Dow is +200, Nasdaq -15.

Normal day after melt up action. Eat more sandwiches.

While I appreciate the service Dropbox provides, it’s a wild piece of shit high tiered valuation boondoggle that is bound to ruin shareholders for at least 2 years, a la Shake Shack. Underwriters, led by Goldman, stole from people by IPOing it at 11x sales.

The company is now trading with an ~$12b market cap, with just $1.1b in annual sales. Moreover, they’re only growing at 31% per annum.

Enter PSTG, another MUH cloud storage play, catering on an enterprise scale. She’s trading at just 4x sales, sporting annual growth of ~40%.

How about we meet halfway, at say 7x sales? Works for me.

In terms of the tech sector, here is the OB/OS oscillator in Exodus for tech. As you can see, we’re nowhere close to overbought. Feel free to keep buying.

I’m actually happy that Facebook abused their power by helping elect Blonald Drumpf this past election. For years I’ve been saying the socials were bastard son of a bitches, stealing our data, spying on us like cocksuckers — just like so many of you. But the average Joe was oblivious and continued to post everything on the Facebook, like retards.

Thanks to the election of a gigantic Orange Ape, all of that has changed. A new era of angry citizens demanding that Facebook be punished for helping elect an Orange Ape is upon us.

Citron is out with a short call on Twitter, reminding people that Twitter, like Facebook, is a fucking bastard. Come to think about it, had it not been for Twitter, none of John Podesta’s salacious emails would’ve been shared by millions. If none of John’s emails were shared, then it is very likely Drumfled Stilzken would never have been rigged into office.

Citron:

Alongside Facebook and Google, Twitter is now being hauled in by Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) to a hearing on data privacy on April 10.

Wait until the Senate finds out that:

Twitter Will Generate $400 million THIS YEAR, by just selling user data. Not advertising.

How important is Data Licensing to Twitter? The Scary Answer

In 2017, ad revenue declined to $2.11 billion from $2.25 billion in the prior year while data licensing revenue grew to $333 million from $282 million in the prior year.

TWTR CFO Ned Segal on Q4’17 earnings call last month that data licensing is “a really high margin business”. TWTR generated $333 million in data licensing revenue in 2017.

If we assume 100% margin, this segment accounts for almost 80% of total profits.

Twitter makes this money from selling user data even from private messages — and yes a lot of “dick picks”. To see the underbelly of Twitter just watch this undercover investigation done by James O’Keefe and other Project Veritas reporters.

Dynamics Are In Place to Short Twitter

Twitter’s valuation gap with FB and GOOGL has widened to largest spread ever. On 2018 P/E (ex-cash), FB and GOOGL trade @ 16-17x vs. TWTR @ 50x.

Over the last year, insiders have sold/surrendered almost $300 million of stock. The last time there was this much insider selling was in 2015 when the stock was $50 and then preceded to fall to $14 over the next year.

Short interest is at all-time lows at 4.6%

Acquisition by another party is far less likely until these companies clean house with regard to privacy concerns and selling user data.

Shares are getting REKT — down by 5%.

Markets are Yellen-Soft early going. That’s what happens when the day prior it rampages higher by 650 you fucking brainlets. Do yourselves a favor and walk away from the desk. I can sense you’re about to make a slew of errors. Speaking of which, one of my positions, PUMP, dove lower after posting earnings. Since I have no interest in being attached to the name, I sold it for a loss today.

My approach is somewhat long-tailed here. I understand we can pull in a few hundred from present levels and I also know there might be some shortable trades. But all of that is a waste of time, when I know for a fact equities will be higher one week from today. Ergo, and this goes without saying, I will increase my positions should the opportunity arise. I am looking for exposure into oil, and can only hope for a bastard drop in prices before I get in.

Truth be told, this is a rareified market and there’s nothing holding it back from ripping higher again. Get your macro exposure first, via ETFs, and then figure out the individual stock ideas.

Top picks: SOXL, SPY

Isn’t it funny how no one talks about the cryptos anymore? I haven’t logged into my SHITCOINS account in weeks and couldn’t care less. The way I see it, everything is lost. The entire account is destined for the shit-heap of time, a time capsule when society was enamored by the glitz and glamour of creating something out of nothing and getting rich by accident.

Early going, Nasdaq futures are +63. I intend to make a great deal of money here and will not apologize for it. You should know that you were all well informed of the future and had every opportunity to follow me into highly profitable positions. I asked that you write them down and perhaps remind me of them in the not-too-distant-future. I hope that you’re still paying attention.

Brent is above $70 this morning, on pace for higher prices into the driving season. I cannot wait until crude is above $100 again and all of Trump’s middle eastern friends are rich enough to buy his top dollar penthouses. If there’s one sector that is unrepresented in the S&P it is oil exploration and drillers. If oil is truly going back to $100, there is lots of money to be made in the group, especially in the frackers.

Here are some other headlines this morning.

LFIN -19% (continued weakness; to be removed from the Russell Indexes on March 28)
OSTK -8.7% (to offer 4 mln shares of common stock)
NVTA -6.4% (commences $50.0 mln common stock offering)
LAND -6.3% (to sell shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering)
GERN -6.2% (cautious article from biotech blogger Adam Feuerstein)
LMRK -3.3% (commenced offering of Series C Floating-to-Fixed Rate Cumulative Perpetual Redeemable Convertible Preferred Units representing limited partner interests)
AUPH -3.3% (filed amendment to short form base shelf prospectus initially filed in January)
MGNX -3% (commences 4.5 mln share common stock offering)
BFAM -1.3% (priced public offering by certain of its stockholders of 4,606,062 shares of its common stock at $102.70/share)
GIS -0.9% (proposes public offering of $1 bln in common stock in connection with pending acquisition of Blue Buffalo Pet Products; files debt securities and common stock shelf offering )
Texas Instruments upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Longbow
Canadian Solar downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan
China Unicom upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley
Chesapeake Energy downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Bernstein
Lam Research initiated with a Buy at Mizuho; tgt $250
Reuters details that Wal-Mart (WMT) plans to use Tencent (TCEHY) for mobile payments instead of Alipay (BABA)

If you didn’t cover your shorts today, you should kill yourselves immediately. Nasdaq futures are +50 and the Dow is looking like it will open up +150. You stupid fucking jackass faggots literally sold stocks because a crackhead bitch went on 60 minutes and said Trump paid for her to blow him 12 years ago.

Do you have any idea how fucking stupid you sound for doing that?

Then we have the retest the low fags, absolute morons who think charts rhyme or have reason. While you obsess over meaningless shit, I’ve digitized and built algorithms for the price memory you so eagerly crave. Tomorrow you’re gonna get fucking REKT and I’ll be blowing smoke into your face the entire time.

I just got finished eating a chicken with some cranned berried sauce, bread, avocado, and a tall mug filled with lager. Gone are my vegan days, pussified upon the altar of healthy eating. I’m an American and I am supposed to eat really bad and die from a massive heart attack or stroke, and I don’t apologize for it, and I don’t give a shit if I drop dead tomorrow — because Le Fly will live forever in the hearts and minds of millions.

Top picks into tomorrow: SOXL, LABU, long absurd quantities of SPY in the quant account until next week.

Join us in Exodus for the banter, the prestige, and also for the monies.

I bet you thought stocks were gonna give up the ghost around noon. You probably ate a giant piece of watermelon and got a borrow for some NVDA, only to get fucking rocked a few minutes later. You spent all weekend sifting through a handful of charts — and now your head is spinning on a spigot and there’s nothing you can do about it.

Stocks are careening higher because there are more buyers than sellers. We were oversold and Exodus told you we were oversold and it does not lie.

My losses on my YANG position were small because I bought it early on Friday and had some gains. After it’s all said and done, I lost 3% in YANG and made 4% in FAZ. Now I’m long SOXL and have 5 points in the bank so far and counting.

You can write all of these things down on a piece to remind me what I said next week. Stocks are going to trade higher, inexorably. And there is nothing that you or your faggot friends can do about it.

Instead of shorting stocks are losing vast sums of money, why not listen to some 6ix9ine rap music and enjoy this generation’s Run DMC?