A Sublime Harmony of Mathematical Precision (SHOMP)

Look at you idiots trifling with charts, pretending to have an idea what you’re doing. It’s like watching an illiterate pretending to read a newspaper upside down. On this Easter, do yourselves a favor and rejoice as Zombie Jesus comes back from the dead to exact revenge upon his assassins.

Step into a world of treasure and mystery via Exodus — a computerized learning machine that will eventually eliminate all investment advisors. After their jobs have been taken from them, we will then begin the process of cleaning the planet from their wasteful existences and orbital space cannon (OSC) their asses into dust.

Have a look at our clean oversold signal this past month. Very precise, don’t you agree?

While some of you might read this and say ‘it’s too early for this sort of shit.’ You might add, ‘if I wanted to subscribe to the damned thing, I’d do it — leave me alone.’ While this might be true with ‘traditional services’, it does not apply to Exodus. Membership has its privileges and aside from making swaths of money via mathematical precision, members also are excluded from the orbital death-ray and will henceforth be protected under the auspices of “The Fly.”

Recent ‘pin action’ in the markets have forced our machines to learn new stress levels, since the old ones are quickly becoming irrelevant. Back when I created it, I knew that markets changed and in order to stay relevant, the software would need to ‘learn’ new markets. For members, we do this via the early dated signals (3mo, 6mo, 12mo). As this market narrative plays out, so will the effectiveness of the signals. As you can see from the chart above, with ten years of active service in the books, my time machine is still operating at the very highest of levels.

Off to see about walking my coyote.

I hope you’re all enjoying your days off from work, pretending to be religious.  As you stuff your face with delicacies and guzzle down large amounts of wine, cryptos are crashing again.

Here have a look at BTC with a 6 handle.

Here’s the aftermath truth of the matter. People like me got suckered in near the top, typical of a bubble about to burst. Even though BTC and other ICOs made terrific gains over the past 5 years, most people lost money since the popularity of bitcoin peaked with the top of the market. At its peak, the ICO asset class was worth more than $850 billion. As I write this, it is now worth just $250 billion. The result of all of that late 2017 fervor is $600 billion in losses.

WHO’S STEPPING IN NOW, DOWN AT THESE LEVELS?

Pro tip: you can’t

Remember back in the old days when you’d used to lick stamps like retards? Nowadays, people subscribe to Stamps.com — because fuck the post office. With the proliferation of a lazy boned society, coupled with the wanton ineptitude of the American youth, it’s only a matter of time before STMP becomes a household name, just like Netflix.

Future convo between Gen Zers:

“What you gonna do today, blood?”

“Yo, I’m gonna take some heroin pills, turn up to some Netflix, and then logon to my Stamps.com account and get some postage.”

“Me too blood.”

Based on the current revenue trajectory, STMP is NFLX circa 2005.

Back in 2005, NFLX had a market cap of $1 billion (now $110b). Based upon this very scientific analysis, providing STMP is “the next” NFLX, there is roughly 100x returns yet to be enjoyed by shareholders of STMP.

Prove me wrong. I’ll wait.

Thank God the month of March is over, right? We endured plenty of hardships and have gone through the meat grinder in order to experience a better life in April. On the matter of God, I find it refreshing that the Catholic Pope is now admitting to being an atheist. According to him, there’s no hell. Some might call that heresy. Others might suggest the person who’d want to convince people the devil did not exist most is the devil himself.

Markets barrel rolled higher today, for no reason whatsoever. We’re just meandering around, making messes along the way. Both GLD and TLT outperformed in March, which means my quant portfolio will have 10% weighting in each for the month of April. Those rules are built into the quant in order to protect against the downside.

While enjoying your baked ham and chocolate eggs this Easter, might I suggest handing out highly profane books with RARE ART on it during dinner? At some point in my life, I intend to complete the trilogy and discuss my come up from 2003-present; however, I’ve been preoccupied with other things and I really haven’t been reading all that much. When I’m not reading good prose, I do not want to write it.

Life for Le Fly now consists of all work and zero play, a moribund existence bookmarked by two barking dogs trying to bite one another 23 hours per day. When I’m not walking my wild coyote around the neighborhood menacing the neighbors with it, I am working in some capacity. When I am not working, I am shuffling the kids around in a car, or perhaps going food shopping like a nice man. It’s good to be a nice man because bad men are evil and mean.

I do get to watch some teevee at night, usually after midnight. Recently, I’ve been listening to more rap music; perhaps coinciding with my newly adopted diet which includes the consumption of RARE meats. Drinking has been minimal and exercise virtually non-existent. My new gym membership begins in late April, so I intend to start taking large doses of creatine then in a Hail Mary attempt to provide myself with kidney failure. Also, I’ll probably spend most of my days there. It’s a rather large facility and I am not tethered to any one place, being the freelance shit poster that I am. I could not be assembling my advisory firm slower. I find excuses all the time to not want to do it. Heck, I’ll get around to it sometime this year; I’m just having too much fun doing absolutely nothing.

Here’s some nice music for you to listen to during Good Friday. Be sure to play it loud so that the wife can enjoy the subtleties of the prose.

This morning Trump crossed the line again, meddling in Wall Street affairs by shitposting about AMZN. He knows exactly what he’s doing, having run a publicly traded company before. He knew before he posted an incendiary remark on Twitter that it would hurt the share price of AMZN. Out of all of Trump’s tweets, this one got me the most pissed off.

I have stated my concerns with Amazon long before the Election. Unlike others, they pay little or no taxes to state & local governments, use our Postal System as their Delivery Boy (causing tremendous loss to the U.S.), and are putting many thousands of retailers out of business!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 29, 2018

Imagine owning calls on AMZN going into today, and then falling victim to this fucking shit. Politics aside, it’s degenerate vagrant homeless man tier’d shit and should not be tolerated.

Shares of AMZN are sliding again, off by nearly $30.

Incidentally, the entire FAAG (FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL) is under siege now — down by more than 11% in the past two weeks. We’re talking more than $300 billion in market cap gone in a fortnight.

Here’s the quick run down.

FB: caught stealing personal information for political purposes. What they really did was prostitute themselves to beat quarterly estimates.

AMZN: The President hates Jeff Bezos because he owns the Washington Post, a paper that regularly defecates on him. As a result, he is now looking to fuck him, and by extension, shareholders of AMZN.

AAPL: No drama yet. This is the best performing FAANG stock during the decline, off by 5.5%

NFLX: These idiots added Susan Rice, former Obama National Security Advisor, to their board. This is a woman who is hated by tens of millions of conservatives. This is an idiotic move by Reed Hastings.

GOOGL: These assholes have gone batshit crazy with Youtube, censoring like a motherfucker — booting people off the platform for political bias. On the Google end, it’s only a matter of time before people learn about all of their sins, constant intrusions into user privacy. Google is the king and queen of selling personal data to beat quarterly estimates.

In order for the market to recover and trade up, these stocks need to recover and flay short sellers until they capitulate.

As an aside, I like today’s action.

As for Deutsche Bank, they believe you should ignore Trump and his retarded tweets and get long some AMZN down here.

Source: CNBC

“We see some small risk that the President could use the bully pulpit to criticize Amazon, and potentially put up some roadblocks for the company,” analyst Lloyd Walmsley advised clients Wednesday. But “if it were such a slam dunk case, we think it is quite likely that we would have seen a tweet from @RealDonaldTrump about an impending regulatory action.”

“In our view, this ship has already sailed. Amazon has been charging sales tax to customers — for its 1P sales – in all the 45 states that have a statewide sales tax…In a way, we think charging sales tax has been a boon to Amazon because it now has extensive fulfillment facilities close to consumers such that it can lead the way in offering faster and more reliable deliveries.”

“We estimate it costs Amazon about $2 per package delivered via USPS,” the analyst wrote. “If Amazon could replicate the last mile costs to below $2 per package, it is likely that the USPS may be operating at the same or similar levels, which suggests that the Amazon business may be breakeven or even profitable.”

“The potential for harm from the President’s ire is far less of a risk, near term at least, than the risks that Cambridge Analytica has exposed around Facebook,” Walmsley added, referring to the ongoing data crisis at the social media titan. “The U.S. Department of Justice focuses on the impact on consumers, not the impact on competitors, when it evaluates antitrust issues. Given Amazon has been a positive force for competition and for consumers, it seems like it would be an unusual target.”

Over the past two weeks, we’ve been dragged through the mud, giving back all of our gains and MOAR, off by 5.5% in a fortnight — netting a YTD return of -2.5% for the S&P 500. Setting aside the recent spate of panic, certain sectors have done very well in 2018, particularly software, hospitals, health services and even department stores.

While everyone else is freaking out about bitcoin and chip stocks, DSS, KSS and M have posted great returns. On the downside is oil pipelines, housewares and accessories, and aluminum.

Drilling down to the meat and potatoes of the top, Basic Materials have been dreadful, in spite of oil’s climb upwards — down 7.7% as a group. Consumer Goods didn’t fare any better, off by 7.2%. Financials were down 3%, Healthcare -0.5%, Industrials -6.5%, Services -3.5%, Utilities -4.5%, and Tech -2%.

Even bonds were lower, with TLT posting losses of 4.5%.

The choppiness has been especially foreboding in recent weeks, especially in tech stocks — thanks to the epiphany by absolute retards that the social networks procure and sell our personal data. Duh.

The price of Bitcoin has been halved since the beginning of the year, and a sundry of fraudulent ICOs have gone down all the way — including Bitconnect.

The very best ETN every invented, XIV, went from +500% gains over 5 years to -100% during one afternoon session — catching yours truly with his pants down, absolutely. But it has been fun. I’ve enjoyed the back and forth and I love the banter inside the Pelican Room in Exodus — even though it has been hard.

As for today, markets are looking to rebound. S&P futures are +12, Nasdaq +50. WTI, however, is lower by 0.11%, which will hopefully bode okay for my ERY position. Crypto traders are flummoxed and getting flushed. BTC is -6.5% and Ripple is off by 10%.

I made this with my own hands. Hitler getting end of quarter report on sovereign wealth fund. Enjoy.

I don’t have the nerve to gamble any further with upside positions, so I bought a hedge earlier today. I went long ERY — hoping for the best, but expecting the worst.

Markets are extreme OS, especially tech. Look at the oscillator for tech from Exodus.

That is just about the most OS we’ve been in a year, maybe more. Oil is typically very sensitive to economic shifts and rarely does well during corrections and bear markets. This is a doomsday hedge.

Hahahaah, where are the MuskFAGS now? Do you see the share price? Let me show you, for those without quotes.

BAM!

An analyst at Morgan Stanley is very bullish on the stock, but also warned today that the recent spate of bad luck for the stock might, in fact, beget even more bad luck. While some of you retarded one’s out there might discard that statement as pure folly, or perhaps insignificant. But for those of us on Wall Street with brain, we know damned well what it means. The firm is implying TSLA might be entering a fucking death spiral, one that worsens as the shares decline. One that is accentuated by its debt/eq levels which has been the cause of innumerable bankruptcies over the years.

“A sharp drop in Tesla’s share price in part reflects questions on Model 3 ramp … an event that directly impacts both the company’s near-term cash needs and ability to potentially access the market for capital,” analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. “A lower share price begets a lower share price… For a company widely expected to continue to fund its strategy through external capital raises, a fall in the share price can take on a self-fulfilling nature that further exacerbates the volatility of the share price.”

That’s code talk for get your share price up, or see it trade directly to zero.

Then the analyst shills for Musk, likely forced by gunpoint by Morgan upper management to retain good relations with their client, saying it might be a good time to step in and buy some TSLA, in spite of it being ‘very high risk.’

“We think that we are looking at one of the buying opportunities that many investors have been waiting for,” he wrote. “We’d use further weakness from here as an opportunity to build an Equal-weight position in the stock … We see Tesla as modestly undervalued with very high risk.”

The fuck?

On a related note, a small hedge fund manager, with symptoms of a brain injury, thinks TSLA is ‘months away’ from bankruptcy. He’s betting on it too, shorting TSLA with ruinous implications.

Unless Elon Musk “pulls a rabbit out of his hat,” Tesla will be bankrupt within four months, says John Thompson of Vilas Capital Management.

“Companies eventually have to make a profit, and I don’t ever see that happening here,” he told MarketWatch. “This is one of the worst income statements I’ve ever seen and between the story and the financials, the financials will win out in this case.”

“Tesla, without any doubt, is on the verge of bankruptcy,” he told clients in an email over the weekend. He explained that funding will be hard to come by in the face of problems in delivering the Model 3, declining demand for the Model S and X, extreme valuation and a likely downgrade of its credit rating by Moody’s from B- to CCC.

“As a reality check, Tesla is worth twice as much as Ford [estimate of the enterprise value of both companies], yet Ford F, -0.09% made 6 million cars last year at a $7.6 billion profit while Tesla made 100,000 cars at a $2 billion loss,” Thompson said. “Further, Ford has $12 billion in cash held for ‘a rainy day’ while Tesla will likely run out of money in the next 3 months. I’ve never seen anything so absurd in my career.”

From Moody’s credit downgrade today.

Tesla’s liquidity consists principally of $3.4 billion in cash and securities at December 31, 2017. The company also has moderate availability under the $1.9 billion ABL facility. This liquidity position is not adequate to cover:

1) the approximately $500 million in minimum cash that we estimate Tesla must maintain for normal operations;

2) a 2018 operating cash burn that will approximate $2 billion if Tesla maintains high discretionary capital expenditures to increase capacity; and

3) convertible debt maturities of approximately $1.2 billion through early 2019. These cash needs will likely require Tesla to undertake a near-term capital raise exceeding $2 billion. Moreover, if the company maintains its expected pace of expansion, it will likely need to raise additional capital during the second half of 2019.

Tesla’s rating could be lowered further if there are shortfalls from its updated Model 3 production targets. The rating will also be pressured if the company is unable to raise sufficient new capital to cover its late-2018 and early-2019 convertible maturities, and to cover the operating cash consumption that will likely continue into 2019.

The rating could be raised if production rates of the Model 3 meet Tesla’s current expectations and if the company maintains good liquidity.

Elon Musk – Trippin' Balls

RELATED: Hitler finds out he’s invested in TSLA 2025 senior notes.

We all walked into today’s session cow-eyed, hoping that President Trump’s great big assed stock market could defy the odds and lift higher. After yesterday’s abysmal session, I looked forward to today, but no more. All I see around me is sheer bleakness, marked by trade wars and an orange hue around the White House — which is a carousel of fuckey on a scale unseen since the days of the Mad King George III of England.

Tech stocks are being absolutely poleaxed in a most harrowing manner. My SOXL has boxing my face off, almost as much as my LABU. Fortunately, I’ve got a runner in GEVO this morning, which is partly offsetting the losses. But that’s a small position and the meat and potatoes of my larger account, the quantitative one, is getting RAPED by 0.8% now. It is no different from being trapped in a horror house with door knobs that spin and spin and spin, but do not let the door open.

I am trapped lads and I cannot get out. Maybe I do not want to get out. Maybe, just maybe, my fatalism is in fact real and all of what you thought was a facade is actually real — an unhinged forty one year old man armed with an Orbital Space Cannon (OSC) — designated for ‘offensive purposes only.’

Here is the shakedown.

Due to Trump’s mental ailments, shares of AMZN are Mcplunging lower — which is probably upsetting for Mr. Bezos — a man who we all love and admire for his Amazonian ways. NFLX is also lower in a horrible way. The FAANG sector, representative of an appalling $2.94 trillion in market capitalization, is off by another 2%. A great big dick is raping the tech sector now and there is nothing Tim Cook can do about it, other than gawk and leer at the spectacle of it all.

On the upside are REITs and services, led by department stores, drugs, and a sundry of consumerism idolatry.

Let it be known, this battle isn’t finished and Le Fly will exact his revenge. It will be grande and numerous and also terrible. You will rue the day you bet against me. In a most unfortunate series of events, I will end up kicking your head around like a soccer ball. Taking the Nasdaq down another 50 is a very, very, serious charge, one that I hope you are ready to answer for.

Good day.