iBC 10th Anniversary Special: The Flash Crash, Samsonite Hamburgalar, and Mr. Devil Dog

NOTE: we’re doing Exodus free trials until tomorrow. Inbox me for access: flybroker at gmail

A little background on my epic VXX trade in May of 2010. At the time, I was 34 years old and for the first time in my life began to get self conscious of my health. I had recently been afflicted with heart palpitations after taking a single pill of Allegra, and I seriously thought something was wrong with my stomach. My grandfather died of stomach cancer and my aunt got it too — so I had become paranoid as fuck and I started to believe I had cancer too.

When I had an appendectomy in 2008, the doctor who did the surgery said he saw irritation on my stomach and asked if I ever had an issue. All of these things, coupled with the fact that I was watching the show House every weekend, caused me to schedule an endoscopy on May 6th, 2008 — just to see what the hell was going on in my stomach.

A day prior to my appointment, I penned a blog and told readers not to buy stocks and how I was 13% weighted in VXX.

Here it is.

I want to address the rookie/punk trader, who is fully margined out in stupid commodity stocks, waiting for the market to resume its uptrend. Mind you, this is the same guy who chided “The Fly” for being defensive, with stupid comments and inane financial advice. Yet, here I am attempting to help him out now. My kindness does not have boundaries.

Okay, so here goes.

Don’t get excited about the riots in Greece. They are Greek and have nothing better to do. However, watch for the sovereign debt crisis to snowball through Europe, effectively stealing the hearts and minds of investors. In my estimation, until this is put to the back burner, this is a DO NOT BUY market. While it’s true, I’ve been adding to my Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] position. It’s also true that I have like a gagillion dollars to allocate to such investments. For the average loser, such as yourself, you cannot afford to make mistakes, since it will wipe you the fuck out and send you to the homeless shelter for soup and shit.

If you are 100% long, sell immediately to lower the boom. Effective downside hedges are [[VXX]] , [[SKF]] , [[TZA]] and [[FXP]] . Normally, I do not condone purchase of 2-3x ETF fuckery. However, in a rising volatility environment, levered ETF’s do very well, especially if you can catch a nice crash or two.

With my money, I intend to add to my [[VXX]] position and suspend any buy orders I had in mind, due to my belief that this crisis is still in its early stages. When the bounce comes, use it to lighten up.

My target cash position is 50%. Right now, I am about 25% cash, 13% [[VXX]].

The next day, the markets ‘flash crashed’ and I was unable to sell my multi-million dollar VXX position — because I had been under general anesthesia. By the time I woke up, markets were in rebound mode and I was so groggy, I really couldn’t grasp what just happened. Here was my blog.

The thing that scares me the most is the fact that gold is up. People are running to safety. This is not over. If you bought the bottom, entertain me and take profits. Right now, my [[VXX]] position is 20%+ weighted in my portfolios, coupled with my 40% cash, I am actually up on the day. I do not mean to brag on a day like this, because I’ve been on the receiving end of the shit stick. But, you really need to come to grips with the fact that you have no fucking idea what you are doing.

Take heed, else feel the brunt of a full blown sovereign debt crisis.

Okay, the burden of responsibility is now on the shoulders of men wearing fancy pants. The ECB is not the Fed. In my estimation, they are too fractured to come up with a cohesive plan over the weekend. This whole little crisis is likely to snowball out of control, turning it into a giant snow man, armed with rocket launchers and shit. I underestimate the Europeans, based upon history. However, there is an outside chance they will concoct some sort of scheme to placate markets— leading to a Monday melt up.

As a result of this sovereign debt crisis, the credit markets are tightening, ipo markets have seized and sentiment has turned decidedly negative. You need to understand these things and throw away your investment thesis of two weeks ago. Things change and so should you.

Here is my game plan:

Because of my large [[VXX]] position (28% of assets), I am up another 2% for the day, bringing my year to date gains up to 17%. With my cash reserves (38%), as discussed in earlier posts, I intend to buy your margin liquidations, with great vigor. Thanks in advance for that.

I am circling the wagons around three names (that’s right, just three):

POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]]

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]]

Eastman Chemical Company [[EMN]]

All three are market leaders and represent good value, based upon current estimates. Furthermore, should the market get flogged some more, they will not receive homo-hammers to the scrotum, just small meat tenderizers to the face.

In short, “The Fly” wins again, much to your chagrin.

In other news, my friend, equity partner, and fellow blogger Chart Addict will no longer blog here at iBankCoin. He has moved over to Stocktwits aka The House of Lindzon. Knowing CA for more than a year and meeting him in person, I can say, without hesitation, he is a real pro and an honest/trustworthy person. Access John’s farewell here.

NOTE: Elections for the next tabbed blogger will commence Sunday night. Mr. Caine Thaler versus ChessnWine. Be there! Oh, one last thing: because of the elections, The Fly’s weekly cartoon will air tomorrow.

After foisting Chart Addict onto Phil Pearlman at Stocktwits, I continued to build my VXX position. I am fairly certain that had I been awake during the Flash Crash, I would’ve sold it and gone long. But because I missed out, I dug in my heals and convinced myself that we were going to retest the flash crash lows.

In this blog, I shrouded the true size of my position, but made reference to it being very large. When I ended up selling it, thanks to my continued accumulation and market appreciated, it was more than 35% of my assets. Remember, the financial crisis was still fresh on everyone’s minds and I had survived and thrived on buying triple inverse ETFs.

With over 4% intra-day gains, I have been paring down my monstrous [[VXX]] position. And, I sold out of my [[FAZ]] . IF I went to cash on the entirety of my [[VXX]] position, I would be more than 55% cash, right now. Although that seems like a lot, I would still be subject to daily drubbings on the remainder of my assets (45%) that are long.

To be blunt, I am strongly considering taking my huge gains (millions) here and blowing out of some longs, even if it means taking big losses. For the record, I will not consider selling out of Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] , since it’s too thin to absorb my tickets.

More later.

Then on May 21st, 2010, just 4 days before my birthday, I booked the win. It was millions in profits and it led to a hubris that later on caused me to lose at least 3x what I made in May of 2010. I felt like a gladiator and I would go on trying to repeat these glory, all to no avail. It was a timeless moment, one that was designed for me, and I truly believed in what I was doing. The trade netted upwards of 60% returns in a little more than 2 weeks. Because of the concentrated nature of the position, it had a profound effect on my assets under management and helped me generate a considerable amount of production for that year.

I am lightening up every hour on my [[VXX]] position; but I will NOT be adding to any longs, NO MATTER WHAT. At this point, I am booking 50-90% gains on [[VXX]] , while incurring blows to the scrotum in a variety of longs. By lightening up here, I run the risk of losing 1.5-3% (my estimate) tomorrow, via my 45% long positions. However, I am willing to accept that risk, AND MORE, considering my year to date gains are now north of 25%.

On a personal level, in order to abate conflicts of issues, I will hold the entirety of my long VXX position into tomorrow’s fuckery. I will have you know, my position is quite large, but so are my balls.

I know many of you are tempted to go long here. However, if we are going to double dip, thanks to Europe/China melt down, 10,100 will look rich as fuck, 6 months from now. Should we double dip, the Dow is going to 8,000 minimum.

Real quick:

I blew out of the entirety of my [[VXX]] position, booking millions of dollars in profits in the process. With a small percentage of cash, I doubled down in both Eastman Chemical Company [[EMN]] and POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , positioning myself to sell both names into strength. It’s a bold move, but worth it, in my opinion.

And, to get broad big cap tech exposure, I bought some [[TYH]] .

However, longer term, I am very bearish on the markets and will look to re enter [[VXX]] lower. In addition, I will begin a short selling campaign, on individual names, who are deserving of a good lashing or 5. My plan, which may fail, is to ride this oversold bounce to the tune of another 5% gain, then reverse positions to the downside.

Based upon the sublime laws of The PPT, all to do with mathematical harmony, we will bounce today, AND MORE.

Finally, my current allocation is about 50% cash, 50% equities.

BONUS: part 3, 4 of 11, Fly has a sit down with SAMSONITE HAMBURGALAR and he meets with Mr. DEVIL DOG.

NOTE: We’re doing FREE TRIALS for Exodus. Email me Flybroker at gmail.com for access

I intend to repost some of the old classics, such as CAP SUCKS HIS OWN COCK saga. It all started on October 23rd, 2008. The gang and I were in heated conversations inside the comments section of my blog. Back in those days, pre Twitter, the comments sections of my blog were brimming with conversation. It was the hay-day of blogging, the very peak of when it all was good and righteous. Anyway, sandwiched in between the always bullish Henry Fool, CAP offered to suck his own dick should the market rally on that very day — a day which saw the the Dow down 800 points at the lows and the Nasdaq off by nearly 5% with less than an hour left of trading.

Cap, being the bold man he once was, took the opportunity to stifle all of the rally talk in the comments section, in an effort to demoralize us with an outrageous claim of being willing to suck his own genitals should the market close higher and reverse the heinous losses.

What proceeded to unfold afterwards shall forever be remembered in iBC lore, the day when the Gods read the iBankCoin comments section and forced a man named CAP to suck on his own penis by making stocks go on a miraculous run into the close.

It begins.

I positioned myself against CAP, gunning for a rally.

The taunting continues.

By 3:25, the signs were everywhere. It was happening.

The Nasdaq was down 3% at 3:30.

Markets were looking dour again and it appeared CAP might escape a horrible end.

By 3:38, markets started to rally hard. CAP’s fate was again in the balance.

By 3:44, the market was green and CAP offered a mea culpa, admitting to making a horrible mistake. But it was too late, for it was sealed, and it he needed to suck his own cock.

Commenters began to thank CAP for his sacrifice, believing it helped buoy markets higher.

The legend of CAP began.

CAP believed the Gods smited him. Indeud.

DEVILDOG APPEARS. For those of you unfamiliar, he was my nemesis, the biggest bear who ever lived. I even did a series of animated cartoons starring him. I will begin the series with this post.

INDEUD.

Here is parts 1 and 2 of 11, a series that starred me, SAMSONITE HAMBURGALAR, DEVIL DOG and my assistant SAM FRIES.

Enjoy.

Free weekend Exodus trials for all.

For those who want to take a peak under the hood to try to grasp the greatness of harmonious of mathematical precision, email me at flybroker at gmail.com for your preview.

Since I’m a little busy at the moment, I cannot promise immediate access — but I will get to it sometime tonight.

It’s a fine day in the marketplace, in spite of my NVDA short position getting lit up. I have faith and confidence that whatever rally it is enjoying today will be washed away next week.

My UVXY is sharply higher, but I have to be careful about holding it for too long. Those ETFs are designed to lose and should only be trade, so bear that in mind when buying it.

I suppose my DRIP position is most interesting to me now, because oil has yet to crack lower. I am early to this trade, which means it has the most potential upside.

Random thought here: I bet you’re waiting for me to talk about bitcoin and how it’s getting killed — but I don’t feel like talking about it. I don’t really hate bitcoin, as a matter of fact, the idea of fucking over the central banks is wonderful; but I just don’t think we’re at a point in the narrative where fiat can be discarded in exchange for internet money. I hope you get a bounce soon.

Remember when I told you to watch out for investment grade paper getting hit? Well, it’s sort of happening today.

I’ve come to the conclusion that I dislike just about every human being who runs for public office and Roy Moore is at the very top of that list. Now, let me be clear: I’m not certain that the charges brought against him of being a FUCKING PEDOPHILE are true, but I am inclined to believe them.

Why?

Because people who run for office are absolute scum. Plus, I find it incredibly unlikely that this women would lie about such a thing; but that’s neither here or there. Did you hear how Sean Hannity apologized for Moore, saying his relations with a 14 year old, when he was 32, was consensual?

FUCK OFF HANNITY.

My daughter is 14 and if a 32 year old was trying to talk to her I would absolutely kill him. It’d be worth going to jail for.

What is the lesson here?

Fuck Roy Moore and fuck Jeff Sessions’ sacred Senate seat. Those people are all devils anyhow. If you’re putting party in front of what’s right about life and dignity, then you are no better than John Podesta and all of his DC buddies partaking in satanic rituals, attended by all of the fashionable people.

We had a correlations between the 2s and 10s yield curve today, which widened to 70bps and the market, with the fag heavy Nasdaq regaining more than 50 points from the lows. The Dow was off by 205 and barely closed down 100.

Men seated in wheeled chairs were out and about talking extremely greasy, elated by the decadence of it all.

Anything showing down more than 100 is quote stuffing fake news!

— Ramp Capital?? (@RampCapitalLLC) November 9, 2017

NVDA just posted earnings and as expected, they were spectacular.

NVIDIA sees Q4 revs $2597-2.703 mln vs $2.44 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
NVIDIA prelim Q3 $1.33 vs $1.07 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $2.640 bln vs $2.36 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

However, the basis for being short NVDA has little to do with earnings, but more to do with the price of the stock.

At 55x earnings and more than 13x sales, the stock is already priced for perfection — higher by 92% for the year.

Any upside action in the after-hours will be faded tomorrow. You can take that to the bank.

We’re likely to trade rangebound until 3:30, at which point the market will either spring higher or fall to pieces.

Art lays out three primary risks to this tape.

1. Political uncertainty
2. Credit market worries, highlighted by the fact that JNK is down 7 days in a row
3. Trump’s tax cut bill is dead

Add these things on top of an already frothy tape, beset by amateur speculators and weak hands, and there is a significant risk here for further downside.

Drillers and exploration stocks are higher by 7% over the past month. Over the same period, the staid and calm JNK, representing junk bonds, is lower by 1.75%. In recent days, JNK has been routed.

Why is this important? It represents the credit trustworthiness of some of the riskier elements in the market, many of which are in the oil and gas sector. So we have a situation now where the riskiest stocks (oil and gas), based solely on their credit ratings, are trending higher on the equity side, but the bond market is in flux. This is an arbitrage worth perusing, the equity-bond guy spread. I’ll take the bond guy every day of the week forever, over the idiot stock monkey.

I added to my DRIP position.

What’s important for you to watch, as this develops, is how the higher quality paper is performing. Watch LQD for a tell.

Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Tala’s grandfather was the first prime minister of Lebanon. Now the good Prince is in prison and the current prime minister resigned, fearing for his life.

Now the House of Saud is ordering all of its citizens out now.

It’s really happening.

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia orders its citizens out of Lebanon 'immediately'

— The Associated Press (@AP) November 9, 2017

Trump’s tax plan is dead, as expected.

World markets are in panic mode, led lower by the DAX, which is off by 1.5%. Our Dow is accelerating to the downside, now down more than 200. The perfect storm is brewing with a toxic blend of a tightening yield curve, political instability, and blowing out of junk bond yields.

WATCH OUT.

WATCH OUT $JNK pic.twitter.com/40BcLnqO6D

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 9, 2017

It’s all fun and games until your accounts are at zero. I will have you know, I am riding my NVDA short into earnings and also holding onto my UVXY with a death grip. There’s a lot more downside to the move to come.

Ladies and Gents,

I’ve been busy all morning, plotting for end of days. As you know, I’ve prepared for this decline in advance and now speak to you from atop the highest of mountains, urinating on everyone below.

The Dow is off by 170 and my UVXY is higher by 9%, placing me in the indelible position of winship. Both my BAC and NVDA short are performing with grace and my DRIP position is idling itself — but of course waiting for an opportunity to pounce.

On the long side, I preside over FIZZ, UCTT, ESPR and HMNY — all of which are doing fine.

I speak to you from a position of authority. None of you have any idea what is going on, because you’ve grown to be fat and sloppy. You’ve grown man-tits and have become slothful thanks to the gross perversions of the bull market. Some of you are so lazy, you transport yourselves inside wheeled chairs and brag about these things on Twitter, in spite of having two perfectly fine working legs. While you were ensconced in the decadence and the excess, I was in the lab getting grizzled, hardened by data, growing my intellectual curiosity and building strategies for this comeuppance. I was born to raze market and meant to trade at this very moment in time.

Watch me as I preside over you and kick your heads in like soccer balls, accomplishing winship,